Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

(10-18-2026 09:55 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Sagarin's updated for week of 10/18.

#37 Boise St. (#55 Oregon State)
#48 *James Madison (#94 Connecticut)
#54 New Mexico (#71 North Dakota St.)
#55 Oregon State (@ #37 Boise St)
#68 *Memphis (#70 Army)
#70 Army (#68 Memphis)

-JMU is mowing down the competition in the SBC while Boise St still has competition left in the PAC plus the MWC title game to push through.

-UNM/NDSU is plan B if JMU/Boise end up stumbling.

-Everyone in the AC already has two losses BUT it is the second strongest G6 conference this year and also the deepest.

UTSA only has one loss in American.

Updated Top 25 Possible Finishers:

Boise with the slight edge over JMU; UTSA still clinging to Tier I status. Oregon State is starting to differentiate themselves from Tier II.

#AvgRnk Bid/Bye% (record)+CCG Team (likelihood of 10k)
1919 #14.7 79/0% (11-1)+W Boise St (1942)
1909 #15.7 80/0% (12-0)+W James Madison (3828)
1901 #17 57/0% (11-1)+W UTSA (595)
1857 #20.7 44/0% (10-2)+W Oregon St (261)
1840 #22.9 26/0% (11-1)+W Air Force (114)
1838 #22.8 40/0% (11-1)+L Boise St (428)
1828 #23.9 31/0% (10-2)+W Boise St (724)
1827 #24.5 38/0% (10-2)+W La Tech (218)
1824 #25 28/0% (10-2) Boise St (2)
1821 #25 20/0% (11-1)+W New Mexico (211)
1816 #26 14/0% (11-1)+L UTSA (95)
1807 #26.8 15/0% (10-2)+W UTSA (308)
1806 #26.5 14/0% (10-2)+W FAU (16)
1803 #26.9 14/0% (10-2)+W North Texas (63)
1796 #27.9 14/0% (12-0)+L James Madison (218)
1793 #28.1 20/0% (10-2)+W South Alabama (29)
1792 #27.8 23/0% (11-1)+W James Madison (498)
1788 #28.5 9/0% (9-2)+W Army (47)
1785 #28.7 3/0% (10-2)+L Oregon St (19)
1784 #28.6 7/0% (9-3)+W Texas St (6)
1780 #29.8 3/0% (10-2)+W Memphis (24)
1774 #30.1 14/0% (11-1) James Madison (8)
1773 #29.8 6/0% (9-3)+W Oregon St (95)
1771 #30.9 6/0% (11-1)+W North Dakota St (80)

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

(10-18-2026 03:33 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

Facts over feelings:

AVG ESPN FPI Wins
Boise St 77
JMU 98

AVG Sagarin Wins
Boise St 89
JMU 105*

Without Wagner (259)

(10-18-2026 05:15 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 03:33 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

Facts over feelings:

AVG ESPN FPI Wins
Boise St 77
JMU 98

AVG Sagarin Wins
Boise St 89
JMU 105*

Without Wagner (259)

FPI tells you who would win on a neutral field not who is deserving of postseason reward. ESPN translates their own FPI into a SOR rating: JMU is #23 while Boise is #25. Though I do expect Boise to close and possibly eclipse JMU in that ranking.

(10-18-2026 06:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 05:15 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 03:33 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

Facts over feelings:

AVG ESPN FPI Wins
Boise St 77
JMU 98

AVG Sagarin Wins
Boise St 89
JMU 105*

Without Wagner (259)

FPI tells you who would win on a neutral field not who is deserving of postseason reward. ESPN translates their own FPI into a SOR rating: JMU is #23 while Boise is #25. Though I do expect Boise to close and possibly eclipse JMU in that ranking.

It is a power rating/ranking that measures the strength of each team. Which team has played a tougher schedule? We can check SOS and they all agree.

(10-18-2026 06:23 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 05:15 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 03:33 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

Facts over feelings:

AVG ESPN FPI Wins
Boise St 77
JMU 98

AVG Sagarin Wins
Boise St 89
JMU 105*

Without Wagner (259)

FPI tells you who would win on a neutral field not who is deserving of postseason reward. ESPN translates their own FPI into a SOR rating: JMU is #23 while Boise is #25. Though I do expect Boise to close and possibly eclipse JMU in that ranking.

It is a power rating/ranking that measures the strength of each team. Which team has played a tougher schedule? We can check SOS and they all agree.

JMU beat a very tough Georgia State this year. They also beat Liberty. SBC have more tough teams than the PAC 12. Fresno State losing to San Diego State and Memphis losing sucks.

(10-18-2026 05:15 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 03:33 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

Facts over feelings:

AVG ESPN FPI Wins
Boise St 77
JMU 98

AVG Sagarin Wins
Boise St 89
JMU 105*

Without Wagner (259)

Feelings? I get called the biggest SBC basher on here by many.

(10-18-2026 06:30 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:23 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 05:15 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 03:33 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  JMU is the team to beat. Boise State has the weaker set of wins. Schedule may be tougher because of Oregon but its a L. JMU hasnt loss and the SBC minus JMU is as good or better than the PAC minus Boise. Boise may even fall behind a one loss AC team but JMU would have to lose.

Facts over feelings:

AVG ESPN FPI Wins
Boise St 77
JMU 98

AVG Sagarin Wins
Boise St 89
JMU 105*

Without Wagner (259)

FPI tells you who would win on a neutral field not who is deserving of postseason reward. ESPN translates their own FPI into a SOR rating: JMU is #23 while Boise is #25. Though I do expect Boise to close and possibly eclipse JMU in that ranking.

It is a power rating/ranking that measures the strength of each team. Which team has played a tougher schedule? We can check SOS and they all agree.

JMU beat a very tough Georgia State this year. They also beat Liberty. SBC have more tough teams than the PAC 12. Fresno State losing to San Diego State and Memphis losing sucks.

Very tough based on what? JMU is the first team GSU played with a pulse. UCF was the most decent team they've played and they lost. FCS NCA&T, Kennesaw State (1-5), Northern Illinois (0-6) and ODU (2-5). You didn't bother to look this up before you posted it did you?

(10-18-2026 01:09 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

Whatever poll or computer rating system that anyone is looking at after Week 7, there is one common theme: The Top 4 G6 teams are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State. It may not be in that order, but those are the four G6 teams consistently at the top of the polls and ratings. At the top in the AP Poll, the only G6 schools getting votes are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State, in that order. These four schools are in the best position today.

(10-18-2026 07:23 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 01:09 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

Whatever poll or computer rating system that anyone is looking at after Week 7, there is one common theme: The Top 4 G6 teams are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State. It may not be in that order, but those are the four G6 teams consistently at the top of the polls and ratings. At the top in the AP Poll, the only G6 schools getting votes are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State, in that order. These four schools are in the best position today.

… and UTSA.

(10-18-2026 07:23 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 01:09 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

Whatever poll or computer rating system that anyone is looking at after Week 7, there is one common theme: The Top 4 G6 teams are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State. It may not be in that order, but those are the four G6 teams consistently at the top of the polls and ratings. At the top in the AP Poll, the only G6 schools getting votes are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State, in that order. These four schools are in the best position today.

While not an official determining factor in selecting the G auto-bid, the Coaches Poll does give insight into what those within the FBS landscape might be thinking. And Oregon State is the only one of those 4 that isn’t receiving votes in their poll, while other G programs are receiving votes. But it will all play out over the coming weeks.

(10-18-2026 07:46 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 07:23 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 01:09 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

Whatever poll or computer rating system that anyone is looking at after Week 7, there is one common theme: The Top 4 G6 teams are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State. It may not be in that order, but those are the four G6 teams consistently at the top of the polls and ratings. At the top in the AP Poll, the only G6 schools getting votes are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State, in that order. These four schools are in the best position today.

While not an official determining factor in selecting the G auto-bid, the Coaches Poll does give insight into what those within the FBS landscape might be thinking. And Oregon State is the only one of those 4 that isn’t receiving votes in their poll, while other G programs are receiving votes. But it will all play out over the coming weeks.

Oregon State received 17 votes in the Coaches poll, one more than New Mexico. While both polls are good and useful, the AP Poll is the better of the two polls. The coaches tend to vote for schools in their own conference. The CFP rankings usually end up being similar to those polls. I did mention that the Top 4 is just today. These four schools are in a good position right now. There are still another six weeks of regular season football to be played, and things are likely to change.

(10-18-2026 09:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 07:46 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 07:23 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 01:09 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

Will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

Whatever poll or computer rating system that anyone is looking at after Week 7, there is one common theme: The Top 4 G6 teams are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State. It may not be in that order, but those are the four G6 teams consistently at the top of the polls and ratings. At the top in the AP Poll, the only G6 schools getting votes are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State, in that order. These four schools are in the best position today.

While not an official determining factor in selecting the G auto-bid, the Coaches Poll does give insight into what those within the FBS landscape might be thinking. And Oregon State is the only one of those 4 that isn’t receiving votes in their poll, while other G programs are receiving votes. But it will all play out over the coming weeks.

Oregon State received 17 votes in the Coaches poll, one more than New Mexico. While both polls are good and useful, the AP Poll is the better of the two polls. The coaches tend to vote for schools in their own conference. The CFP rankings usually end up being similar to those polls. I did mention that the Top 4 is just today. These four schools are in a good position right now. There are still another six weeks of regular season football to be played, and things are likely to change.

My apologies. You are correct. I totally missed Oregon State when I looked over the votes.

Oregon St is riding a 5 game winning streak into its bye this week. They head to Fresno on Halloween.

Their offense is currently rated #4 in the country. Defense is their bigger issue at 57th-but thats decent.

If they win their next two they will ride into Boise on Nov 14th with a 7 game win streak and one of the best offenses in the country.

At this point I think we have to assume that Boise St and Oregon St will play on Nov 28th in the PAC's flex week. The problem could be that OSU beats Boise on Nov 14th and then Boise beats OSU on Nov 28th-meaning Boise has 2 losses and OSU has 3. Then you still have a PAC champ game-meaning they could play 3 times this year, correct?

(10-19-2026 08:05 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Oregon St is riding a 5 game winning streak into its bye this week. They head to Fresno on Halloween.

Their offense is currently rated #4 in the country. Defense is their bigger issue at 57th-but thats decent.

If they win their next two they will ride into Boise on Nov 14th with a 7 game win streak and one of the best offenses in the country.

At this point I think we have to assume that Boise St and Oregon St will play on Nov 28th in the PAC's flex week. The problem could be that OSU beats Boise on Nov 14th and then Boise beats OSU on Nov 28th-meaning Boise has 2 losses and OSU has 3. Then you still have a PAC champ game-meaning they could play 3 times this year, correct?

It appears the PAC may have an ongoing problem of having too many competitive teams and not enough cupcakes. It's going to be difficult to get a champion with fewer than two losses (especially if they continue to try to schedule P4 games OOC), and they could miss out in favor of a team in another conference with fewer losses because they play a weaker schedule.

(10-19-2026 09:30 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-19-2026 08:05 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Oregon St is riding a 5 game winning streak into its bye this week. They head to Fresno on Halloween.

Their offense is currently rated #4 in the country. Defense is their bigger issue at 57th-but thats decent.

If they win their next two they will ride into Boise on Nov 14th with a 7 game win streak and one of the best offenses in the country.

At this point I think we have to assume that Boise St and Oregon St will play on Nov 28th in the PAC's flex week. The problem could be that OSU beats Boise on Nov 14th and then Boise beats OSU on Nov 28th-meaning Boise has 2 losses and OSU has 3. Then you still have a PAC champ game-meaning they could play 3 times this year, correct?

It appears the PAC may have an ongoing problem of having too many competitive teams and not enough cupcakes. It's going to be difficult to get a champion with fewer than two losses (especially if they continue to try to schedule P4 games OOC), and they could miss out in favor of a team in another conference with fewer losses because they play a weaker schedule.

The PAC and American have to worry about eating their own. In these two conferences, it is going to be hard to go undefeated in conference. The playoff committee needs to take the conference schedules into consideration, but it is hard decision for the committee when you have an undefeated team in a weaker conference against a two-loss team in a stronger conference.

(10-19-2026 12:41 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The PAC and American have to worry about eating their own. In these two conferences, it is going to be hard to go undefeated in conference. The playoff committee needs to take the conference schedules into consideration, but it is hard decision for the committee when you have an undefeated team in a weaker conference against a two-loss team in a stronger conference.

They always used SOS. They added SOR last year. They added SOC (Strength of conference) this year. It's duplicative with SOS and has the same faults but it will be used against the G6s as a whole.

In the case of 24 playoff teams (but applied to current rankings/records/metrics) it will be used to validate why the G6 should be the 24th seed - "You are right, Boise is 5-1 with the #59 SOS, but SMU is also 5-1 with a similar SOS at #65. We considered the ACC's higher SOC compared to PAC and SMU ultimately ended up seeded ahead of Boise." The part they won't say is that SOC ignores the fact that SMU isn't playing Miami and there is no reason why SMU should get a metric boost because the #1 team just so happens to play in the same conference.