Boise State is the clubhouse leader at this point. They dominated an undefeated to that point WMU team in Kalamazoo.

(10-15-2026 12:11 PM)WesternDave Wrote:  Boise State is the clubhouse leader at this point. They dominated an undefeated to that point WMU team in Kalamazoo.

I think “clubhouse” usually implies they no longer have any work to do.

I agree a 12-1 Boise “likely” edges a 13-0 JMU (or 12-1 American champ), but the manner in which these teams win out matters, as does who they defeat in their respective championships. Two 11-1 American teams might vault their champion into the CFP while Boise and JMU play 8-4 stragglers. There are still some uncontrollables.

(10-11-2026 04:45 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Here is my Top 10 possible finishers.

#AvgRnk Bid/Bye% (record)+CCG Team (likelihood of 10k)
1913 #14.9 81/0% (11-1)+W Boise St (2443)
1906 #15.6 76/0% (12-0)+W James Madison (2593)
1903 #16.3 66/0% (11-1)+W UTSA (601)
1902 #16.6 61/0% (11-1)+W FAU (83)
1875 #18.9 41/0% (11-1)+W Memphis (370)
1848 #21.1 42/0% (10-2)+W Oregon St (138)
1842 #22 32/0% (11-1)+W New Mexico (459)
1842 #22.1 34/0% (11-1)+W Air Force (66)
1834 #22.4 36/0% (11-1)+L Boise St (371)
1819 #24 33/0% (10-2)+W Boise St (833)

Strike #5 from the list. The gap between the Top 4 contenders and everyone else is widening.

(10-11-2026 07:12 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 7 Games of the Week

5-1 Memphis @ Tulane Friday 7:30
4-1 FAU @ Army Sat Noon
Navy @ 5-1 UTSA Sat 8:00
4-1 New Mexico @ Hawaii Sat 10:30

Game of the week
4-1 Georgia St @ 6-0 JMU Sat Noon

Note that Liberty & Boise have Bye's this week.

Reminder of some really important games this weekend.

That road game at Tulane did Memphis in. How they finish within the American will affect Boise's overall schedule strength.

Strike FAU off the list. They are being blown out by Army, and JMU is beating up on Georgia State who put a scare in UCF.

(10-17-2026 05:34 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 07:12 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 7 Games of the Week

5-1 Memphis @ Tulane Friday 7:30
4-1 FAU @ Army Sat Noon
Navy @ 5-1 UTSA Sat 8:00
4-1 New Mexico @ Hawaii Sat 10:30

Game of the week
4-1 Georgia St @ 6-0 JMU Sat Noon

Note that Liberty & Boise have Bye's this week.

Reminder of some really important games this weekend.

That road game at Tulane did Memphis in. How they finish within the American will affect Boise's overall schedule strength.

Boise better hope Memphis and WMU finish strong. Otherwise not sure 12-1 looks great with Liberty destroying the CUSA and JMU working towards 13-0

JMU is beating up on Georgia State who gave a UCF a scare in the first game.

UMass. slim chances went down the drain today.
UNLV will be gone as well with their third lose as they are being beating up by Air Force.

(10-17-2026 05:34 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-11-2026 07:12 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 7 Games of the Week

5-1 Memphis @ Tulane Friday 7:30
4-1 FAU @ Army Sat Noon
Navy @ 5-1 UTSA Sat 8:00
4-1 New Mexico @ Hawaii Sat 10:30

Game of the week
4-1 Georgia St @ 6-0 JMU Sat Noon

Note that Liberty & Boise have Bye's this week.

Reminder of some really important games this weekend.

That road game at Tulane did Memphis in. How they finish within the American will affect Boise's overall schedule strength.

Based on this list we saw Memphis lose, FAU lose, UTSA survive, New Mexico hold serve and finally JMU throttle Georgia St.

Its a Boise/JM race

Week 8 Games of the Week

North Dakota St (6-1) @ New Mexico (5-1) Saturday 9PM
UTSA (6-1) @ Tulane Saturday 8PM
James Madison (7-0) @ App St Thursday 7PM
North Texas (4-2) @ Navy Saturday 330 PM

All other G6 Top 10 should be heavily favored.
Oregon St & USF are on a bye.

(10-18-2026 06:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Its a Boise/JM race

Haven’t run my sims yet but UTSA may still be within striking distance. The Longhorns aren’t doing them any favors the last two weeks, but the American is the more likely G6 to produce a formidable CCG opponent.

(10-18-2026 07:12 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Its a Boise/JM race

Haven’t run my sims yet but UTSA may still be within striking distance. The Longhorns aren’t doing them any favors the last two weeks, but the American is the more likely G6 to produce a formidable CCG opponent.

UTSA will have a very hard time winning out, guess we will see. Not a given they make the CCG.

New Mexico is still also in the running.

Don’t discount a 1-loss AC team.

JMU’s OOC schedule is weak. The AC teams actually played some P2/M2s.

JMU 7-0
UTSA 6-1
Liberty 5-1
New Mexico 5-1
North Dakota State 6-1
Air Force 5-1
Boise State 5-1
Memphis 5-2
USF 5-2
Jacksonville State 5-2
Western Michigan 5-2
Ohio U. 5-2
Toledo 5-2
Oregon State 5-2
La.-Lafayette 5-2
North Texas 4-2
Army 4-2
FAU 4-2
APP. State 4-2
Georgia State 4-2
La. Tech 4-2
South Alabama 4-2

G6 conferences by numbers still left in the playoff spot.
American 6
SBC 6
MAC 3
MWC 3
CUSA 2
PAC 12 2

With Fresno State losing to San Diego State, Boise State has no quality wins except for Memphis now. JMU has two quality wins. Liberty and Georgia State. NDSU has two quality wins. Jacksonville State and Georgia State.

(10-18-2026 06:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Its a Boise/JM race

NDSU, New Mexico and Air Force say hold my beer. Boise State's only quality win was Memphis and they took a hit yesterday.

JMU has two big wins with Liberty and Georgia State.

NDSU has two big wins against Air Force and Jacksonville State.

Fresno State lost to San Diego State hurts Boise State.

(10-18-2026 08:04 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Its a Boise/JM race

NDSU, New Mexico and Air Force say hold my beer. Boise State's only quality win was Memphis and they took a hit yesterday.

JMU has two big wins with Liberty and Georgia State.

NDSU has two big wins against Air Force and Jacksonville State.

Fresno State lost to San Diego State hurts Boise State.

It’s Boise and JMU’s to lose. If both win out, nobody else has a shot. But it’s college football and nothing is guaranteed

Sagarin's updated for week of 10/18.

#37 Boise St. (#55 Oregon State)
#48 *James Madison (#94 Connecticut)
#54 New Mexico (#71 North Dakota St.)
#55 Oregon State (@ #37 Boise St)
#68 *Memphis (#70 Army)
#70 Army (#68 Memphis)

-JMU is mowing down the competition in the SBC while Boise St still has competition left in the PAC plus the MWC title game to push through.

-UNM/NDSU is plan B if JMU/Boise end up stumbling.

-Everyone in the AC already has two losses BUT it is the second strongest G6 conference this year and also the deepest.

(10-18-2026 09:55 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Sagarin's updated for week of 10/18.

#37 Boise St. (#55 Oregon State)
#48 *James Madison (#94 Connecticut)
#54 New Mexico (#71 North Dakota St.)
#55 Oregon State (@ #37 Boise St)
#68 *Memphis (#70 Army)
#70 Army (#68 Memphis)

-JMU is mowing down the competition in the SBC while Boise St still has competition left in the PAC plus the MWC title game to push through.

-UNM/NDSU is plan B if JMU/Boise end up stumbling.

-Everyone in the AC already has two losses BUT it is the second strongest G6 conference this year and also the deepest.

American looks too good top to bottom, they're acting like the SEC and taking out all the top dogs every week. Feels like one of these ends up getting the g6 spot:

Boise
JMU
UNM
NDSU

I JMU gets one loss and all others end up with 2 losses, I'd probably default to the American champ, as long as they only have 2 losses. Otherwise, maybe a coin flip between Boise and JMU.

(10-18-2026 08:00 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Don’t discount a 1-loss AC team.

JMU’s OOC schedule is weak. The AC teams actually played some P2/M2s.

I agree. A 1 or even 2 loss American Champ could edge out a 1 loss JMU or even Boise. The strength of schedule could really hurt the PAC and Sun Belt this year.