(07-29-2021 10:14 PM)Reverend Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:02 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  Who is going to willingly jump into ESPN's crosshairs right now? I don't see the B12 surviving this and if they do ESPN will just drive them into the ground

Big 12 has a deal with FOX. Between FOX, CBS, and the word of streaming services looking for sports, they will be fine.

Yes, there seems to be a kind of mythologizing of ESPN on this board. Yes, ESPN is the biggest player in the CFB media world. But FOX is plenty big and other media companies are out there too.

Disney is the #1 media company, but they are far from a monopoly player.

(07-29-2021 10:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, there seems to be a kind of mythologizing of ESPN on this board. Yes, ESPN is the biggest player in the CFB media world. But FOX is plenty big and other media companies are out there too.

Disney is the #1 media company, but they are far from a monopoly player.

Whoever offers the most money and best exposure will most likely use the little 8 for their own purposes.

There's a good chance that will be ESPN unless Fox significantly overpays.

I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

Do a Big XII-AAC merger. East and West divisions. Lots of good football teams between the two.

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

The problem you're having is you are using old paradigms to assess what's going on here. There are few people that are probably aware of the eight B12 leftovers value, sans UT and OU, than Aresco and his partners at ESPN.

With the CFP 12, the "power" lingo doesn't amount to anything. There are no autobids. What's important now are what teams are driving ratings and where they are located, so the new conference can capitalize on marketing the group.

Thus, if the American teams are drawing comparable numbers to the 8, and they have a deal with ESPN along with the leverage of better locations, they likely hold the trump cards in this deal.

OU and UT aren't around anymore to draw viewership for the leftovers. That's a pretty big tip of the scales.

If ESPN is motivated toward a certain end, I just don't see what kind of resistance the little 8 can offer to pick the terms. As they say, money talks and BS walks.

(07-29-2021 10:49 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Do a Big XII-AAC merger. East and West divisions. Lots of good football teams between the two.

This is what I see happening.

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

UH and SMU would jump in a heartbeat. We all know it.

(07-29-2021 10:51 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

UH and SMU would jump in a heartbeat. We all know it.

ESPN is pulling the strings and those are ESPN properties. Those teams aren't going to jump with the inside knowledge that it will soon be a ghost ship.

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

(07-29-2021 10:51 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

UH and SMU would jump in a heartbeat. We all know it.

With a conference merger including east-west divisions, there is no need to "jump".

(07-29-2021 11:00 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:51 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

UH and SMU would jump in a heartbeat. We all know it.

With a conference merger including east-west divisions, there is no need to "jump".

I think thats too many teams. What do I know, right?

(07-29-2021 10:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

Houston will go where they are paid the most and have the best exposure.

If the 8 can offer that to them, then they will probably jump.

The wrench in that plan is ESPN and what they are willing to pay Houston as well as the 8.

The 8 still need to have a tangible media contract in hand for the best candidates to turn on ESPN.

That's a tall order. As Jerry McGuire says, "Show me the money."

Unfortunately, the 8's negotiations are now hampered by a lack of vigorous competition for their rights. Fox will assess the 8 without UT and OU and make their offer. ESPN isn't going to bid that number up.

The 8 will likely know what they can get by joining another conference... and the likelihood is that number will be much higher, and it will be under the AAC banner.

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

The problem you're having is you are using old paradigms to assess what's going on here. There are few people that are probably aware of the eight B12 leftovers value, sans UT and OU, than Aresco and his partners at ESPN.

With the CFP 12, the "power" lingo doesn't amount to anything. There are no autobids. What's important now are what teams are driving ratings and where they are located, so the new conference can capitalize on marketing the group.

Thus, if the American teams are drawing comparable numbers to the 8, and they have a deal with ESPN along with the leverage of better locations, they likely hold the trump cards in this deal.

OU and UT aren't around anymore to draw viewership for the leftovers. That's a pretty big tip of the scales.

If ESPN is motivated toward a certain end, I just don't see what kind of resistance the little 8 can offer to pick the terms. As they say, money talks and BS walks.

No. The CFP 12 might not even happen at this point. Things are very unstable right now, and no one knows what the next playoff format will look like.

The 8 remaining programs in the Big12 are still guaranteed more media money for the next 4 years. The Texas and OU payouts alone are still worth more than the $8 million each of those AAC programs earn in a year from ESPN. In 2025, they may be on a more even playing field, but not today. If they wanted to expand, The Big12 can find similar quality and value from expanding with BYU and MWC programs when the time comes.

Another big factor that seems to be getting overlooked is that the AAC programs are the ones desperate to conference with the remaining Big12. You just can't dictate terms under those circumstances, regardless of what ESPN thinks.

(07-29-2021 11:02 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

Houston will go where they are paid the most and have the best exposure.

If the 8 can offer that to them, then they will probably jump.

The wrench in that plan is ESPN and what they are willing to pay Houston as well as the 8.

I see no incentive for the Big12 to offer Houston or anyone else an invitation. There is no logic for sharing all the extra money they will earn over the next 4 years.

(07-29-2021 11:07 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The 8 still need to have a tangible media contract in hand for the best candidates to turn on ESPN.

That's a tall order. As Jerry McGuire says, "Show me the money."

Unfortunately, the 8's negotiations are now hampered by a lack of vigorous competition for their rights. Fox will assess the 8 without UT and OU and make their offer. ESPN isn't going to bid that number up.

The 8 will likely know what they can get by joining another conference... and the likelihood is that number will be much higher, and it will be under the AAC banner.

Ha! The Big12 will probably negotiate between FOX and CBS. They knew when they sent that "cease and desist" letter to ESPN that they wouldn't get another media contract from ESPN. The Big12 made their choice, and it probably doesn't include AAC programs. I expect the next Big12 media deal to be with either FOX and/or CBS with maybe additions from the MWC and possibly BYU to join after the 2025 season.

(07-29-2021 11:19 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:02 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

Houston will go where they are paid the most and have the best exposure.

If the 8 can offer that to them, then they will probably jump.

The wrench in that plan is ESPN and what they are willing to pay Houston as well as the 8.

I see no incentive for the Big12 to offer Houston or anyone else an invitation. There is no logic for sharing all the extra money they will earn over the next 4 years.

The only reason to add schools is to try to limit the damage to the tv revenue payouts for losing Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12 needs to expand purely to show it's not a dying conference. It's a perception thing. If I'm the Big 12 I hope to expand back to 12 total and use Oklahoma and Texas payouts to tie the conference over to when they potentially can get a new TV contract. If they can get Houston plus 3 other AAC teams now the AAC is in trouble. Would Navy leave a now 7 team AAC?

The Big 12 would almost force ESPN back to the table if they gut the 4 best schools from the AAC. Would a AAC with a additional 3-4 C-USA or Sun Belt teams be worth the current AAC payout?

(07-29-2021 11:39 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:19 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:02 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

Houston will go where they are paid the most and have the best exposure.

If the 8 can offer that to them, then they will probably jump.

The wrench in that plan is ESPN and what they are willing to pay Houston as well as the 8.

I see no incentive for the Big12 to offer Houston or anyone else an invitation. There is no logic for sharing all the extra money they will earn over the next 4 years.

The only reason to add schools is to try to limit the damage to the tv revenue payouts for losing Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12 needs to expand purely to show it's not a dying conference. It's a perception thing. If I'm the Big 12 I hope to expand back to 12 total and use Oklahoma and Texas payouts to tie the conference over to when they potentially can get a new TV contract. If they can get Houston plus 3 other AAC teams now the AAC is in trouble. Would Navy leave a now 7 team AAC?

The Big 12 would almost force ESPN back to the table if they gut the 4 best schools from the AAC. Would a AAC with a additional 3-4 C-USA or Sun Belt teams be worth the current AAC payout?

We all know the AAC becomes CUSA again if they lose their top 2-3 programs.

(07-29-2021 11:39 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:19 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:02 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  There’s no way UH would rather stay in the AAC than join Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Pure delusion by AAC fans.

Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

Houston will go where they are paid the most and have the best exposure.

If the 8 can offer that to them, then they will probably jump.

The wrench in that plan is ESPN and what they are willing to pay Houston as well as the 8.

I see no incentive for the Big12 to offer Houston or anyone else an invitation. There is no logic for sharing all the extra money they will earn over the next 4 years.

The only reason to add schools is to try to limit the damage to the tv revenue payouts for losing Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12 needs to expand purely to show it's not a dying conference. It's a perception thing. If I'm the Big 12 I hope to expand back to 12 total and use Oklahoma and Texas payouts to tie the conference over to when they potentially can get a new TV contract. If they can get Houston plus 3 other AAC teams now the AAC is in trouble. Would Navy leave a now 7 team AAC?

The Big 12 would almost force ESPN back to the table if they gut the 4 best schools from the AAC. Would a AAC with a additional 3-4 C-USA or Sun Belt teams be worth the current AAC payout?

The Big12's TV revenue is guaranteed for the remainder of their ESPN contract. There will be no damage to their media revenue under their current deal. Right now, the Big12 with the current 8 members is still worth more by themselves than with new additions. And, BYU and a combination of MWC programs would be worth about as much as any combination of AAC members. No need to reward AAC programs that conspired against them, and no reason to share their loot either.