Cincinnati and Houston seem like a gimme to me. I would add the Florida schools after then consider going to 14 with Memphis and SMU. Offer BYU a 5-game scheduling agreement in football if they are interested as well.

got a good link that goes along with this thread

https://fbschedules.com/the-only-way-to-...he-big-12/

The way I see it, this is what needs to be done:

1. Really put a scare into E$PN, the so-called WWL, by inviting Clemson and Florida State to join in 2031
2. while E$PN execs are getting their heart rates and blood pressure back down, get Fox's blessing to go after Arizona and Arizona State. Then invite BYU, Cincy, Houston, and...East Carolina!!! Though ECU might look out of place in the Big XII, the culture definitely fits!!! And unlike UCF, which is beholden to Disney-E$PN, ECU could really care a less about the WWL, so long as they are televised well and get paid well, IMHO.

This has literally turned into one of the dumbest anti AAC threads that I've ever seen. The Big12 is dead!!! Long lives the AAC!!! There's not one program outside of the prideful big 12 that would jump into that steaming pile of guaranteed destruction.

(07-29-2021 10:50 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  ... Thus, if the American teams are drawing comparable numbers to the 8, and they have a deal with ESPN along with the leverage of better locations, they likely hold the trump cards in this deal. ...

This doesn't follow. If the American teams are drawing comparable numbers to the Remaining Eight, and require the inventory from 11 teams to do so, that means that a $100m/yr contract for either results in $12m per Remaining Eight school and $9m per AAC school.

Counting "better locations" is double counting if you have already included their ratings draw in the analysis ... "better locations" in this context means locations that help them generate higher ratings.

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

Good post Joe.

(07-29-2021 11:54 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:39 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:19 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 11:02 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  Oh, Houston absolutely wants to conference with those programs, but I doubt the Big12 is going to reward them with an invitation after what the AAC (Houston) tried to do to their conference. Plus, the Big12 will earn more money by not expanding (media deals, UT/OU exits fees, & possible settlements).

Houston will go where they are paid the most and have the best exposure.

If the 8 can offer that to them, then they will probably jump.

The wrench in that plan is ESPN and what they are willing to pay Houston as well as the 8.

I see no incentive for the Big12 to offer Houston or anyone else an invitation. There is no logic for sharing all the extra money they will earn over the next 4 years.

The only reason to add schools is to try to limit the damage to the tv revenue payouts for losing Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12 needs to expand purely to show it's not a dying conference. It's a perception thing. If I'm the Big 12 I hope to expand back to 12 total and use Oklahoma and Texas payouts to tie the conference over to when they potentially can get a new TV contract. If they can get Houston plus 3 other AAC teams now the AAC is in trouble. Would Navy leave a now 7 team AAC?

The Big 12 would almost force ESPN back to the table if they gut the 4 best schools from the AAC. Would a AAC with a additional 3-4 C-USA or Sun Belt teams be worth the current AAC payout?

The Big12's TV revenue is guaranteed for the remainder of their ESPN contract. There will be no damage to their media revenue under their current deal. Right now, the Big12 with the current 8 members is still worth more by themselves than with new additions. And, BYU and a combination of MWC programs would be worth about as much as any combination of AAC members. No need to reward AAC programs that conspired against them, and no reason to share their loot either.

I agree. The Big 12 has much more value to stay together then to add BYU and Boise. And the Big 12 will still be multiple times more valuable than the AAC

(07-29-2021 10:43 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  I think Aresco made a major miscalculation. He should have known the remaining Big12 members would have too much pride to lower themselves to accept being absorbed into a non-power conference like the AAC whose membership have less value.

If the Big12 actually has the evidence against ESPN and the AAC, than I think every AAC program can kiss the chances at a Big12 invitation goodbye. I expect the Big12 to stay at 8 and keep cashing those ESPN checks, UT & OU exit fees, and possibly enjoy cashing settlement checks too. CBS and FOX will still be there after ESPN blackballs them from their platforms. I think there are ways the Big12 can squeeze the AAC. Aresco should probably be concerned right now.

I think you're mostly right. XII programs are bigger and better programs - but a TV network is looking for ratings and growth, not win/loss performance. It's this new narrative and in all honesty it's not healthy at all.

The mistake the XII made was attacking ESPN publicly. I think they could have quietly and calmly taken Cincy a few weeks ago.

ESPN is now pissed off. Also, with UT and OU gone, ESPN may be looking at a comparison between the other XII games and AAC games. If those numbers are close, and I've seen articles stating as much, then ESPN is wondering why in the hell they are writing a P5 check for AAC performance.

(07-29-2021 12:48 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 12:34 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 12:20 PM)CoastalVANDAL Wrote:  I invite BYU as soon as possible.
BYU hopefully beats Texas a few times before they leave.
Then I target three candidates for twelve.
A P5 conference cannot dip too low academically no regional .No one ranked below a the lowest P5 member.
Former P5 staus is a plus like a Cincinnati for example.
My preference one MW and either U Conn all sports or two AAC.

BYU

Later Colorado st , Cincy and UCF all with a Nebraska type deal.

Without OU and Texas the Big XII isn’t a power conference. BYU left the MWC and went Indy in part because they couldn’t stomach Utah being in a power league when they weren’t. Don’t see how this would benefit BYU: they’d likely get a bid to the 12 team CFB as an unbeaten Indy, and they’d have to tear up their unique deal with ESPN/BYU TV because of the Fox interest in the Big XII rights, all to join a league that is objectively worse than the one the Utes call home. UConn isn’t leaving the Big East for this motley crew of leftovers either.

All of this, Carl

Plus, what in the world is "a Nebraska type deal"?
Big 12 cannot offer a B1G money, so the remaining 8's offer is just trying to stay above The American.

(07-29-2021 08:52 PM)CoastalVANDAL Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 03:39 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  The Little 8 need to add two teams.

1) They lose the $$$ from conf champ game.

2) If KS, OSU and ISU and Texas Tech fly this chicken coop, they need at least 6 to build from.

3) For at least two years, a 10-team conf w Cinci and Houston fielding 5 Top 25 football teams a year probably does as well as the ACC and Pac many years and certainly places someone in an expanded playoff.

4) Someone is going to elevate in this format. Iowa State? Houston? TCU? Kansas State? Someone is gonna, without OU on its schedule, run the table and be a national story/playoff contender. ONE final four with a new B12 school involved ends the controversy. If that can happen, it MAY even convince KU, ISU and TTCH they are better off staying put.

I think being at ten proved to be too risky . They will look to go to 12. Academics will play a small role like no one below the bottom P5 school.

I think they should add at least one school, but my understanding of the NCAA’s CCG rule is that a league with fewer than 12 teams can hold a title game if they either have a full round-robin or divisions. A round-robin, 7 game schedule would let the Affected Eight to play a CCG, though I think leaving each school with the burden of scheduling 5 out of conference games, particularly with less TV money to fund buy games with other G5 as well FCS teams, might prove to be too impractical to manage.

Someone posted that they are guaranteed P5 status as long as they keep one P5 member. So these 8 have a lot of power and BYU would join and is a P5 type program.

10 was not safe 9 or 8 is less safe I believe they go to 12.
I could see 9 for a while then 12 for stability.
New members would not receive exit fees or full shares right away.
I would pick one MWC school to pair with BYU .
Colorado st has the new stadium and academics close to BYU.
SDSU has the academics new stadium but not very close to BYU.
They need one school close to WVU so Cincinnati .
That leaves one spot for either Houston or UCF .
Either get a former SWC school in a huge market or add Florida .

If the Big XII wants to survive with value picks I think it's in their best interest to go East and not West. Money, recruiting, and greater population is out East not West.

(07-30-2021 09:02 AM)CoastalVANDAL Wrote:  Someone posted that they are guaranteed P5 status as long as they keep one P5 member. So these 8 have a lot of power and BYU would join and is a P5 type program.

10 was not safe 9 or 8 is less safe I believe they go to 12.
I could see 9 for a while then 12 for stability.
New members would not receive exit fees or full shares right away.
I would pick one MWC school to pair with BYU .
Colorado st has the new stadium and academics close to BYU.
SDSU has the academics new stadium but not very close to BYU.
They need one school close to WVU so Cincinnati .
That leaves one spot for either Houston or UCF .
Either get a former SWC school in a huge market or add Florida .

I am not trying to be an arse but had anyone ever looked at Colorado State’s TV ratings? I recently looked them up because people often suggest the BXII go west— over the last few years of data I think every member of the AAC has had more eyeballs over the course of the season. If your argument is the Rams would do better if they were playing Baylor instead of Utah State, the same would hold true for the AAC schools as well. I just don’t see it— the BXII needs viewers

Nine days later and I’m still sticking to what I posted five hours after the UT/OU news broke:

“I don’t think the Big 12 would be comfortable with only eight all-sports members. They’d want at least one more in the conference, and with WVU still in the fold I’d expect them to look east before looking west, with their first backfill choice probably being Cincinnati. If they don’t stop there, I think their next priority would be to shore up their presence in Texas which means Houston could get a call too.”

They could go with Cincinnati + Memphis instead, which is probably what the coaches and ADs would prefer, but institutionally Cincinnati + Houston looks like the best fit.

I’m sure there will be a discussion with BYU too but I don’t think the mutual attraction will be strong enough to overcome the complications.

(07-29-2021 10:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:14 PM)Reverend Wrote:  

(07-29-2021 10:02 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  Who is going to willingly jump into ESPN's crosshairs right now? I don't see the B12 surviving this and if they do ESPN will just drive them into the ground

Big 12 has a deal with FOX. Between FOX, CBS, and the word of streaming services looking for sports, they will be fine.

Yes, there seems to be a kind of mythologizing of ESPN on this board. Yes, ESPN is the biggest player in the CFB media world. But FOX is plenty big and other media companies are out there too.

Disney is the #1 media company, but they are far from a monopoly player.

They control the CFP & they could just shove their half of the remaining B12 games that don't include Texas or OU to ESPN+ for the next 5 years. And knowing that ESPN has no interest in bidding on the Big 12 with the LO8 moving forward Fox & CBS can come in with much lower numbers. Big 12 is dead.

(07-30-2021 09:21 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Nine days later and I’m still sticking to what I posted five hours after the UT/OU news broke:

“I don’t think the Big 12 would be comfortable with only eight all-sports members. They’d want at least one more in the conference, and with WVU still in the fold I’d expect them to look east before looking west, with their first backfill choice probably being Cincinnati. If they don’t stop there, I think their next priority would be to shore up their presence in Texas which means Houston could get a call too.”

They could go with Cincinnati + Memphis instead, which is probably what the coaches and ADs would prefer, but institutionally Cincinnati + Houston looks like the best fit.

I’m sure there will be a discussion with BYU too but I don’t think the mutual attraction will be strong enough to overcome the complications.

BYU football-only seems like it'd be a lot easier than offering all-sports membership, and the WCC seems happy enough to accommodate BYU on everything else. I don't think BYU really cares where their Olympics play so long as football's taken care of, and the WCC is reasonably solid anyway. The question is whether a rebuilt Big 12 gets BYU interested.