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Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-10-2017 05:32 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 04:56 PM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  SDSU has the win over Stanford who will likely be top 25.

Like it or not, a win over a top 25 P5 team will trump everything. If SDSU runs the table, they're in.

If UCF goes undefeated, they will have a top 25 win vs Navy and a top 15, maybe top 10 win vs USF.....plus a lot stronger conference schedule. Memphis may be Top 25 by the end of the season too.

This. If both USF and UCF win out, both are going to be very highly ranked when they play.

Heck, if Navy wins out, they'll be in the top 10 based off beating UCF, Notre Dame, and potentially USF.
10-10-2017 05:46 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2017 09:26 PM by msm96wolf.)
10-10-2017 09:25 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

However, all this is moot since Stanford will get at least 2 to 3 more losses.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 05:07 AM by otown.)
10-11-2017 04:59 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #14
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

Specifically, to your point: A win over a ranked P5 will trump multiple wins over ranked AAC teams. There are two reasons for this. First, there is obviously a bias in favor of P5 teams, it's not fair but it's silly to deny it. Second, once an AAC team beats another AAC team, they likely will not be ranked anymore, so it's more likely that if you beat a P5 team, they will finish ranked, which is what matters. E.g., if UCF beats Navy while Navy is ranked #20, but that loss drops Navy out of the rankings, which it likely will, UCF will not get credit at the end of the year for "beating a ranked team".

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 06:24 AM by quo vadis.)
10-11-2017 06:15 AM
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otown Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 06:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

Specifically, to your point: A win over a ranked P5 will trump multiple wins over ranked AAC teams. There are two reasons for this. First, there is obviously a bias in favor of P5 teams, it's not fair but it's silly to deny it. Second, once an AAC team beats another AAC team, they likely will not be ranked anymore, so it's more likely that if you beat a P5 team, they will finish ranked, which is what matters. E.g., if UCF beats Navy while Navy is ranked #20, but that loss drops Navy out of the rankings, which it likely will, UCF will not get credit at the end of the year for "beating a ranked team".

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.

You wrote a book simply to knock my point based off the improbability of Stanford staying undefeated the rest of the way. I put chances of that close to 5%, if even that. I watched the USC game. It wasnt pretty. I would agree if that rarity happened, but we all know the likelihood of that happening is slim. I am simply arguing about the realistic scenario of UCF being undefeated and SDSU being undefeated with Stanford finishing with the expected and likely 4 or 5 losses.

So I am amazed that you wrote such a long response to talk about such an improbability, in fact something that i never even argued about. In fact, you are agreeing with the OP, because the OP is simply looking at it from an undefeated perspective of SDSU, completely independent of whatever Stanford does, even if they lose out the remainder games. Which is exactly the opposite of what you posted in the AAC forum. Heck, even if you read my post, I specifically mentioned that one should not pretend Stanford is going undefeated the remainder of the season. So there is acknowledgement that all bets are off if Stanford wins out.

Quo, you can't have it both ways, even if you try so hard to keep up with the negative AAC slant to the masses.

So like it or not, SDSU needs help as well. However their help is a lot harder considering it requires another team to win out their P5 conference and stay undefeated. A team that still looks very suspect against the top of their conference. Psssst, Utah was highly overranked, as the only reason they were undefeated was because they had wins against North Dakota, BYU, SJSU, and squeaked out a win against Arizona.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 08:06 AM by otown.)
10-11-2017 07:16 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-10-2017 04:56 PM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  SDSU has the win over Stanford who will likely be top 25.

Like it or not, a win over a top 25 P5 team will trump everything. If SDSU runs the table, they're in.

Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.
10-11-2017 07:29 AM
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RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 06:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.

Stanford has played 3 decent teams, and has lost 2 of those 3 games while beating Utah by 3. Stanford will finish at best 8-4, and more likely is 6-6 or 7-5. Those pretending they are going win out or anything close to that are just dingledoffs.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 09:30 AM by goodknightfl.)
10-11-2017 07:39 AM
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Titans3775 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 06:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

Specifically, to your point: A win over a ranked P5 will trump multiple wins over ranked AAC teams. There are two reasons for this. First, there is obviously a bias in favor of P5 teams, it's not fair but it's silly to deny it. Second, once an AAC team beats another AAC team, they likely will not be ranked anymore, so it's more likely that if you beat a P5 team, they will finish ranked, which is what matters. E.g., if UCF beats Navy while Navy is ranked #20, but that loss drops Navy out of the rankings, which it likely will, UCF will not get credit at the end of the year for "beating a ranked team".

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.

Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 07:44 AM by Titans3775.)
10-11-2017 07:40 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #19
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 07:16 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 06:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

Specifically, to your point: A win over a ranked P5 will trump multiple wins over ranked AAC teams. There are two reasons for this. First, there is obviously a bias in favor of P5 teams, it's not fair but it's silly to deny it. Second, once an AAC team beats another AAC team, they likely will not be ranked anymore, so it's more likely that if you beat a P5 team, they will finish ranked, which is what matters. E.g., if UCF beats Navy while Navy is ranked #20, but that loss drops Navy out of the rankings, which it likely will, UCF will not get credit at the end of the year for "beating a ranked team".

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.

You wrote a book simply to knock my point based off the improbability of Stanford staying undefeated the rest of the way. I put chances of that close to 5%, if even that. I watched the USC game. It wasnt pretty. I would agree if that rarity happened, but we all know the likelihood of that happening is slim. I am simply arguing about the realistic scenario of UCF being undefeated and SDSU being undefeated with Stanford finishing with the expected and likely 4 or 5 losses.

So I am amazed that you wrote such a long response to talk about such an improbability, in fact something that i never even argued about.

What? In the previous post you certainly did imply that if Stanford won out, an unbeaten UCF would still beat out unbeaten SDSU for the NY6 slot. That's why you said at the end "it's all moot, because Stanford will lose 2-3 more games" or something to that effect. Because that means that previously, you were talking about a Stanford that won out, and which is why i replied.

But second, now that you have backpedaled on that, it sounds like we agree: If Stanford and SDSU go unbeaten the rest of the way, the AAC is in trouble with regards to the NY6 spot.

But I also agree that if UCF and SDSU go unbeaten, but Stanford has 4-5 losses, then yes, UCF will get the nod.

SDSU does need help - they need Stanford to keep winning. The AAC also needs help, it needs Stanford to lose. Since Stanford losing is more likely, the AAC is in the better position. But no AAC team controls its destiny, it needs either SDSU or Stanford to lose. If they both win out, SDSU will get the NY6 no matter what any AAC team does.

PS - i didn't write a 'book', it took me about 47 seconds to type the previous post, LOL.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 09:31 AM by quo vadis.)
10-11-2017 09:17 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #20
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 07:39 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford has played decent teams, and has lost 2 of those 3 games while beating Utah by 3. Stanford will finish at best 8-4, and more likely is 6-6 or 7-5. Those pretending they are going win out or anything close to that are just dingledoffs.

I agree. I certainly don't expect Stanford to win out. They will likely lose 3 more games. But the issue is "what if they do"?

If they do, and SDSU does too, the AAC won't get the NY6 bid.
10-11-2017 09:21 AM
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