(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

(10-11-2017 09:31 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

So you're saying an undefeated SDSU team with a win over 8-4 Stanford would be guaranteed to get in over an undefeated Navy team with a wins over ranked Notre Dame, ranked UCF, possibly a ranked Houston squad, and a ranked East opponent in the AAC championship? Ok.

(10-11-2017 09:31 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

It probably won't matter where Stanford finishes if SDSU finishes the regular season undefeated. Because, it is very likely they would be the only G5 champion to do so.

Last year, the unbeaten MAC champion, Western Michigan, got the nod with FBS OOC wins over Northwestern (6-6), Illinois (3-9) and Georgia Southern (4-7).

I can't picture the committee picking a 1 or 2 loss G5 champ ahead of an unbeaten one.

(10-11-2017 09:45 AM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:31 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

So you're saying an undefeated SDSU team with a win over 8-4 Stanford would be guaranteed to get in over an undefeated Navy team with a wins over ranked Notre Dame, ranked UCF, possibly a ranked Houston squad, and a ranked East opponent in the AAC championship? Ok.

Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

Heck, even at #16/#19, Notre Dame is probably under-ranked right now. According to Sagarin, their SOS is #26, they have dominated all four teams they've beaten, including a Michigan State team that has beaten Iowa and Michigan since Notre dame routed them, and they easily have the "best loss" so far, a one-point squeaker to a red-hot Georgia team. Notre Dame has upcoming games with ranked USC and NC State, if they win those, they will be in the Top 10.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

(10-11-2017 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

I guess I'm not considering Navy since I expect them to lose this week and go at best 3-4 down the stretch.

A Navy win over Notre Dame won't bolster anyone except Navy.

In my mind, the race is between SDSU, UCF and USF. I see SDSU having the edge there because of the Stanford win.

(10-11-2017 09:57 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

I guess I'm not considering Navy since I expect them to lose this week and go at best 3-4 down the stretch.

A Navy win over Notre Dame won't bolster anyone except Navy.

In my mind, the race is between SDSU, UCF and USF. I see SDSU having the edge there because of the Stanford win.

In the unlikely event that both SDSU and either USF or UCF were to finish unbeaten, chances are that SDSU might not have a win against anybody with fewer than 4 losses. I'd say the nod would go to either Florida team.

(10-11-2017 09:57 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

I guess I'm not considering Navy since I expect them to lose this week and go at best 3-4 down the stretch.

A Navy win over Notre Dame won't bolster anyone except Navy.

In my mind, the race is between SDSU, UCF and USF. I see SDSU having the edge there because of the Stanford win.

If the issue is "who has the edge right now?", then yes, if the CFP were making the choice right now, SDSU would get the NY6 bid.

But they aren't so all we can do is speculate about what might happen in the next two months.

(10-11-2017 09:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:16 AM)otown Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 06:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  

(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

Specifically, to your point: A win over a ranked P5 will trump multiple wins over ranked AAC teams. There are two reasons for this. First, there is obviously a bias in favor of P5 teams, it's not fair but it's silly to deny it. Second, once an AAC team beats another AAC team, they likely will not be ranked anymore, so it's more likely that if you beat a P5 team, they will finish ranked, which is what matters. E.g., if UCF beats Navy while Navy is ranked #20, but that loss drops Navy out of the rankings, which it likely will, UCF will not get credit at the end of the year for "beating a ranked team".

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.

You wrote a book simply to knock my point based off the improbability of Stanford staying undefeated the rest of the way. I put chances of that close to 5%, if even that. I watched the USC game. It wasnt pretty. I would agree if that rarity happened, but we all know the likelihood of that happening is slim. I am simply arguing about the realistic scenario of UCF being undefeated and SDSU being undefeated with Stanford finishing with the expected and likely 4 or 5 losses.

So I am amazed that you wrote such a long response to talk about such an improbability, in fact something that i never even argued about.

What? In the previous post you certainly did imply that if Stanford won out, an unbeaten UCF would still beat out unbeaten SDSU for the NY6 slot. That's why you said at the end "it's all moot, because Stanford will lose 2-3 more games" or something to that effect. Because that means that previously, you were talking about a Stanford that won out, and which is why i replied.

But second, now that you have backpedaled on that, it sounds like we agree: If Stanford and SDSU go unbeaten the rest of the way, the AAC is in trouble with regards to the NY6 spot.

But I also agree that if UCF and SDSU go unbeaten, but Stanford has 4-5 losses, then yes, UCF will get the nod.

SDSU does need help - they need Stanford to keep winning. The AAC also needs help, it needs Stanford to lose. Since Stanford losing is more likely, the AAC is in the better position. But no AAC team controls its destiny, it needs either SDSU or Stanford to lose. If they both win out, SDSU will get the NY6 no matter what any AAC team does.

PS - i didn't write a 'book', it took me about 47 seconds to type the previous post, LOL.

Please reread my post. Never did I imply that Stanford was going undefeated the rest of the season. From my original post (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses) Maybe you just interpreted it wrong. I am looking it in the context of Stanford not being the PAC champ, which is the safe bet at this point.

PS- it looked like a book on my phone, I guess the smaller screen does that

(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

(10-11-2017 10:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

I don't know. What are you basing this on? They barely lost to SDSU and got creamed by USC. their wins were only against a mediocre at best ASU, and over ranked Utah team (please see who Utah actually won against to deserve their ranking), Rice (enough said), and UCLA (who has been underwhelming thus far).

Their remaining schedule:
Oregon - can see it going either way
Oregon State- win
Washington State- likely loss
Washington- Likely loss
California- can see it as a win or loss
ND- likely loss

The current week AP poll has:
18 - USF
19 - SDSU
22 - UCF
25 - Navy

The first CFP ranking won't come out until after three more weeks of games have been played. So here are the schedules over the next three weeks with current records of opponent:

USF - home Cincy (2-4), at Tulane (3-2), home Houston (4-1)
SDSU - home Boise (3-2), home Fresno (3-2), at Hawaii (2-4)
UCF - home ECU (1-5), at Navy (5-0), home Austin Peay (FCS)
Navy - at Memphis (4-1), home UCF (4-0), home Temple (3-3)

- Navy looks like it has the toughest slate, without a deeper look
- though will point out that Boise lost to Wash St by 3 points early in the year


If both USF and SDSU win out over these three weeks, I'm not sure how the CFP will rank them. But the ultimate point is that I don't think the CFP ranking will change much if neither lose the rest of the season. So the first CFP ranking is pretty critical.

Both would have a CCG game to make their final case. The AAC CCG game could potentially have two ranked teams. Not sure on the MW CCG. Probably depends on Colorado St running the table, as they don't play SDSU in the regular season. They're 4-2 right now, beating Oregon St and losing to Colorado and Alabama. They have a stretch of: at New Mexico, home Air Force, at Wyoming, home Boise.

(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

If Stanford runs the table, yes they would get in over a one loss AAC champ, providing SDSU is undefeated

(10-11-2017 12:06 PM)otown Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

If Stanford runs the table, yes they would get in over a one loss AAC champ, providing SDSU is undefeated

I am assuming Stanford will not be undefeated haha

(10-11-2017 12:13 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 12:06 PM)otown Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

If Stanford runs the table, yes they would get in over a one loss AAC champ, providing SDSU is undefeated

I am assuming Stanford will not be undefeated haha

Never say never........ but its almost a certainty lol

(10-11-2017 11:06 AM)otown Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 10:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

I don't know. What are you basing this on? They barely lost to SDSU and got creamed by USC. their wins were only against a mediocre at best ASU, and over ranked Utah team (please see who Utah actually won against to deserve their ranking), Rice (enough said), and UCLA (who has been underwhelming thus far).

Their remaining schedule:
Oregon - can see it going either way
Oregon State- win
Washington State- likely loss
Washington- Likely loss
California- can see it as a win or loss
ND- likely loss

I have been watching Pac-12 football over 10 years. And I have been watching all of these teams play all season.

California is going to get destroyed. And Stanford matches up perfectly against WSU. The only outright loss I see on their schedule is against Washington.

(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

I think it depends on the actual circumstances of what caused the team to drop down in the rankings. You give some examples that support your case, but those aren't always the only examples. Sometimes a team doesn't lose any players, and was just plainly overrated early in the year.

Which is the case in UCLA's case? Overrated? Or did something happen, that legitimately caused the team to be less competitive than it was when they were ranked #25?


Perhaps you'd like to make the case that losses themselves can easily damage the fragile egos and self-confidences of college players, and easily turn into a determent to their physical abilities on gamedays. In my opinion, that type of argument does have merit ..... but it's a much tougher argument to prove. And it isn't well received.

(10-11-2017 12:32 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 11:06 AM)otown Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 10:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

I don't know. What are you basing this on? They barely lost to SDSU and got creamed by USC. their wins were only against a mediocre at best ASU, and over ranked Utah team (please see who Utah actually won against to deserve their ranking), Rice (enough said), and UCLA (who has been underwhelming thus far).

Their remaining schedule:
Oregon - can see it going either way
Oregon State- win
Washington State- likely loss
Washington- Likely loss
California- can see it as a win or loss
ND- likely loss

I have been watching Pac-12 football over 10 years. And I have been watching all of these teams play all season.

California is going to get destroyed. And Stanford matches up perfectly against WSU. The only outright loss I see on their schedule is against Washington.

I love a team that loves to run the football from power formations. That's "real" football to me. So few of those teams, in today's game.

Don't know who Wash St added this year from last year, or if some of their players really improved that much in the off-season. But Minnesota, which has always been a run heavy team with average (at best) QB's, and varying level of defense, beat Wash St in the Holiday Bowl last year.