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Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.
10-11-2017 09:27 AM
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Metropolis777 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.
10-11-2017 09:31 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.
10-11-2017 09:35 AM
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Chappy Online
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Post: #24
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:31 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

So you're saying an undefeated SDSU team with a win over 8-4 Stanford would be guaranteed to get in over an undefeated Navy team with a wins over ranked Notre Dame, ranked UCF, possibly a ranked Houston squad, and a ranked East opponent in the AAC championship? Ok.
10-11-2017 09:45 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:31 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

It probably won't matter where Stanford finishes if SDSU finishes the regular season undefeated. Because, it is very likely they would be the only G5 champion to do so.

Last year, the unbeaten MAC champion, Western Michigan, got the nod with FBS OOC wins over Northwestern (6-6), Illinois (3-9) and Georgia Southern (4-7).

I can't picture the committee picking a 1 or 2 loss G5 champ ahead of an unbeaten one.
10-11-2017 09:48 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:45 AM)Chappy Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:31 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Stanford still has to play Or, Wash, Wash st, and ND. They will be lucky to finish 8-4, 7-5 is most likely. SDSU big win will not look very big by the end of the season.

UW & ND haven't won in Palo Alto in 10 years. Stanford has dominated both series recently and the UW game is on a short weel. Oregon is bad.

It is not out of the question that Stanford ends up 8-4 or 9-3. Either of those records will keep them in the top 25. If that happens, all SDSU has to do is win out.

So you're saying an undefeated SDSU team with a win over 8-4 Stanford would be guaranteed to get in over an undefeated Navy team with a wins over ranked Notre Dame, ranked UCF, possibly a ranked Houston squad, and a ranked East opponent in the AAC championship? Ok.

Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

Heck, even at #16/#19, Notre Dame is probably under-ranked right now. According to Sagarin, their SOS is #26, they have dominated all four teams they've beaten, including a Michigan State team that has beaten Iowa and Michigan since Notre dame routed them, and they easily have the "best loss" so far, a one-point squeaker to a red-hot Georgia team. Notre Dame has upcoming games with ranked USC and NC State, if they win those, they will be in the Top 10.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 09:55 AM by quo vadis.)
10-11-2017 09:50 AM
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Metropolis777 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

I guess I'm not considering Navy since I expect them to lose this week and go at best 3-4 down the stretch.

A Navy win over Notre Dame won't bolster anyone except Navy.

In my mind, the race is between SDSU, UCF and USF. I see SDSU having the edge there because of the Stanford win.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 09:58 AM by Metropolis777.)
10-11-2017 09:57 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:57 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

I guess I'm not considering Navy since I expect them to lose this week and go at best 3-4 down the stretch.

A Navy win over Notre Dame won't bolster anyone except Navy.

In my mind, the race is between SDSU, UCF and USF. I see SDSU having the edge there because of the Stanford win.

In the unlikely event that both SDSU and either USF or UCF were to finish unbeaten, chances are that SDSU might not have a win against anybody with fewer than 4 losses. I'd say the nod would go to either Florida team.
10-11-2017 10:12 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:57 AM)Metropolis777 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, Navy is the most potent possible AAC champ, because they could beat a highly-ranked Notre Dame team, which would cancel out SDSU having beat Stanford. So the other poster is wrong about that.

In fact, it might boil down to who wins the Stanford - Notre Dame game at the end of the year. That will give the edge to either SDSU or Navy.

It definitely is in the best interests of the AAC if Notre Dame keeps winning, so that they are high-ranked when they play Navy in late November.

I guess I'm not considering Navy since I expect them to lose this week and go at best 3-4 down the stretch.

A Navy win over Notre Dame won't bolster anyone except Navy.

In my mind, the race is between SDSU, UCF and USF. I see SDSU having the edge there because of the Stanford win.

If the issue is "who has the edge right now?", then yes, if the CFP were making the choice right now, SDSU would get the NY6 bid.

But they aren't so all we can do is speculate about what might happen in the next two months.
10-11-2017 10:14 AM
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otown Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:16 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 06:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 04:59 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-10-2017 09:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know the AAC true believers don't want to hear this, but the G5 Champion is not based on conference. CFP has used strength of schedule for the past three years. In addition, they favor OOC over conference schedule. SDSU has the edge, they beat a ranked OOC team at home and P5 on the road. Once again, Week 8 will show the CFP's thinking.

IMHO, if SDSU goes undefeated, I think they have the inside track. OOC is hurting UCF & USF. iF Navy beats ND they probably could replace if SDSU and Navy both go undefeated. AAC problem for the access, they will probably cannabilize each other again. I do think SDSU, Navy, UCF and USF are the top four. Followed by Troy and Marshall. However, I strongly disagree 1 loss AAC is ensured a bid. The OOC wins and schedule is extremly weak other than possibly for ND. None will have played a ranked OOC opponent and possibly a P5 with a winning record.

My top G5 teams going into week 7
SDSU - Undefeated Top 25 win and P5 Road win
UCF - Undefeated P5 road win
NAVY - Undefeated has ND upcoming
USF - Undefeated (Terrible SOS and OOC Schedule)
Troy - One loss. Open season road loss to Boise, not a bad loss. Road win LSU (4-2) impressive P5.
Marshall - One loss. Only loss at Ranked NCSU.

So you tell me. An undefeated UCF with a top 10 to 15 win USF, plus a top 25 Navy win, plus a possible top 25 Memphis win is not gonna beat out an undefeated SDSU whose remaining opponents have a record of 13-21? Seriously? All because they barely beat a possible Top 25 Stanford (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses). So the CFP committee simply looks at it as a one game season...... one freaking team.......there is no way. Two weeks cannot come soon enough.

The other poster is basically correct: The CFP is going to value wins over good P5 over anything else. The AAC currently has none of those, while SDSU does have one of those.

Specifically, to your point: A win over a ranked P5 will trump multiple wins over ranked AAC teams. There are two reasons for this. First, there is obviously a bias in favor of P5 teams, it's not fair but it's silly to deny it. Second, once an AAC team beats another AAC team, they likely will not be ranked anymore, so it's more likely that if you beat a P5 team, they will finish ranked, which is what matters. E.g., if UCF beats Navy while Navy is ranked #20, but that loss drops Navy out of the rankings, which it likely will, UCF will not get credit at the end of the year for "beating a ranked team".

In contrast, P5 teams rankings are much more resilient. Look at Stanford: You call them a "possible top 25" team. That's a laugh, they already are a top 25 team! They have two losses, but already are back in the rankings. If Stanford continues to win, SDSU continues to benefit.

Stanford has games left against #5 Washington, #9 Washington State, and #16 Notre Dame. If they win out, They will be in the top 10! They will be PAC North champs, playing USC for the PAC title and a possible trip to the playoffs! There is no way USF or UCF can possibly have anything like that on their resume.

From a national perspective, the biggest possible AAC game of the year would not be an unbeaten USF vs an unbeaten UCF. It would be Navy vs a once-beaten Notre Dame. If Navy could beat a Notre Dame team that is 10-1, and surely ranked in the top 10, possibly the top 5, that would be a massive feather in the AAC cap. Not only would it boost Navy's credentials, but also by implication the credentials of any AAC team that beats or has beaten Navy.

If Stanford keeps winning, the AAC champ is likely doomed to lose out to an unbeaten SDSU, unless Navy notches a win over a highly-ranked Notre Dame. So AAC fans should be rooting for Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Because if they don't, the resume of any AAC champ will depend entirely on wins over other AAC teams. And those AAC teams they beat will themselves have no P5 skins of note on their wall.

Against an SDSU with a win over a highly-ranked Stanford, that won't cut it.

You wrote a book simply to knock my point based off the improbability of Stanford staying undefeated the rest of the way. I put chances of that close to 5%, if even that. I watched the USC game. It wasnt pretty. I would agree if that rarity happened, but we all know the likelihood of that happening is slim. I am simply arguing about the realistic scenario of UCF being undefeated and SDSU being undefeated with Stanford finishing with the expected and likely 4 or 5 losses.

So I am amazed that you wrote such a long response to talk about such an improbability, in fact something that i never even argued about.

What? In the previous post you certainly did imply that if Stanford won out, an unbeaten UCF would still beat out unbeaten SDSU for the NY6 slot. That's why you said at the end "it's all moot, because Stanford will lose 2-3 more games" or something to that effect. Because that means that previously, you were talking about a Stanford that won out, and which is why i replied.

But second, now that you have backpedaled on that, it sounds like we agree: If Stanford and SDSU go unbeaten the rest of the way, the AAC is in trouble with regards to the NY6 spot.

But I also agree that if UCF and SDSU go unbeaten, but Stanford has 4-5 losses, then yes, UCF will get the nod.

SDSU does need help - they need Stanford to keep winning. The AAC also needs help, it needs Stanford to lose. Since Stanford losing is more likely, the AAC is in the better position. But no AAC team controls its destiny, it needs either SDSU or Stanford to lose. If they both win out, SDSU will get the NY6 no matter what any AAC team does.

PS - i didn't write a 'book', it took me about 47 seconds to type the previous post, LOL.

Please reread my post. Never did I imply that Stanford was going undefeated the rest of the season. From my original post (although I highly believe they are racking up a few more loses, let's not pretend they are the PAC champ and they already have 2 loses) Maybe you just interpreted it wrong. I am looking it in the context of Stanford not being the PAC champ, which is the safe bet at this point.

PS- it looked like a book on my phone, I guess the smaller screen does that
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 10:40 AM by otown.)
10-11-2017 10:39 AM
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