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Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.
10-11-2017 10:52 AM
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otown Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 10:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

I don't know. What are you basing this on? They barely lost to SDSU and got creamed by USC. their wins were only against a mediocre at best ASU, and over ranked Utah team (please see who Utah actually won against to deserve their ranking), Rice (enough said), and UCLA (who has been underwhelming thus far).

Their remaining schedule:
Oregon - can see it going either way
Oregon State- win
Washington State- likely loss
Washington- Likely loss
California- can see it as a win or loss
ND- likely loss
10-11-2017 11:06 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
The current week AP poll has:
18 - USF
19 - SDSU
22 - UCF
25 - Navy

The first CFP ranking won't come out until after three more weeks of games have been played. So here are the schedules over the next three weeks with current records of opponent:

USF - home Cincy (2-4), at Tulane (3-2), home Houston (4-1)
SDSU - home Boise (3-2), home Fresno (3-2), at Hawaii (2-4)
UCF - home ECU (1-5), at Navy (5-0), home Austin Peay (FCS)
Navy - at Memphis (4-1), home UCF (4-0), home Temple (3-3)

- Navy looks like it has the toughest slate, without a deeper look
- though will point out that Boise lost to Wash St by 3 points early in the year


If both USF and SDSU win out over these three weeks, I'm not sure how the CFP will rank them. But the ultimate point is that I don't think the CFP ranking will change much if neither lose the rest of the season. So the first CFP ranking is pretty critical.

Both would have a CCG game to make their final case. The AAC CCG game could potentially have two ranked teams. Not sure on the MW CCG. Probably depends on Colorado St running the table, as they don't play SDSU in the regular season. They're 4-2 right now, beating Oregon St and losing to Colorado and Alabama. They have a stretch of: at New Mexico, home Air Force, at Wyoming, home Boise.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 11:51 AM by MplsBison.)
10-11-2017 11:47 AM
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Titans3775 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.
10-11-2017 12:00 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

If Stanford runs the table, yes they would get in over a one loss AAC champ, providing SDSU is undefeated
10-11-2017 12:06 PM
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Titans3775 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 12:06 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

If Stanford runs the table, yes they would get in over a one loss AAC champ, providing SDSU is undefeated

I am assuming Stanford will not be undefeated haha
10-11-2017 12:13 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 12:13 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 12:06 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

If Stanford runs the table, yes they would get in over a one loss AAC champ, providing SDSU is undefeated

I am assuming Stanford will not be undefeated haha

Never say never........ but its almost a certainty lol
10-11-2017 12:27 PM
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 11:06 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 10:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

I don't know. What are you basing this on? They barely lost to SDSU and got creamed by USC. their wins were only against a mediocre at best ASU, and over ranked Utah team (please see who Utah actually won against to deserve their ranking), Rice (enough said), and UCLA (who has been underwhelming thus far).

Their remaining schedule:
Oregon - can see it going either way
Oregon State- win
Washington State- likely loss
Washington- Likely loss
California- can see it as a win or loss
ND- likely loss

I have been watching Pac-12 football over 10 years. And I have been watching all of these teams play all season.

California is going to get destroyed. And Stanford matches up perfectly against WSU. The only outright loss I see on their schedule is against Washington.
10-11-2017 12:32 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 12:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 07:40 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  Memphis (which UCF blasted) beat #25 UCLA. Just like in CBB, it is what they are ranked at the time you beat them and not what they become.

Completely wrong. The Memphis win over UCLA already means little, because UCLA has fallen from the rankings. It's where a team finishes that matters.

I mean, just thinking about it for a second will reveal the silliness of your position. Imagine in week two, UCLA is ranked #25, and USF beats them. They then finish 3-9. Imagine also in week two, Memphis beats unranked Texas Tech, and then Texas Tech finishes 10-2 and ranked #15 at the time of the CFP selection. Do you seriously think the CFP will credit USF with a win over a 'ranked team' but not Memphis? That's laughable, it will be the exact opposite.

Now back to reality: if UCLA rebounds, goes on a tear, and ends up back in the rankings, then Memphis's win over them will mean a lot again. But as it is now, it means very little.

Imagine the silliness of your position when you think about it.

UCLA was ranked #25 because they were the #25 team at that point in time whether deserved or not. The media, fans, and players on both teams all thought they were the playing for/against the #25 team. What they do after that game has no bearing on that game. I'm sure a 3-9 UCLA plays with a far different (defeated) mentality than a 2-0 #25 UCLA team even in the same season.

Or another scenario

If the Patriots are ranked number 1 and Memphis beats them, but the very next game they lose Tom Brady and lose the rest of the games that year finishing #130. Is there zero value in Memphis' win? In your scenario, Memphis beat a cupcake that should be DIII.

No one counts their wins against unranked UCLA as a ranked win if UCLA slips into the final poll of the year because they didn't beat a ranked team. Sure some wins can look better later, but the fact remains you can only play a team in their current state and not their future Alabama-self. Some teams suck at first and figure it out later.

But back to the point, Undefeated SDSU won't get in over a 1-Loss USF, UCF, Memphis, or Navy. The Mountain West has a SOS anchor that the AAC doesn't.

I think it depends on the actual circumstances of what caused the team to drop down in the rankings. You give some examples that support your case, but those aren't always the only examples. Sometimes a team doesn't lose any players, and was just plainly overrated early in the year.

Which is the case in UCLA's case? Overrated? Or did something happen, that legitimately caused the team to be less competitive than it was when they were ranked #25?


Perhaps you'd like to make the case that losses themselves can easily damage the fragile egos and self-confidences of college players, and easily turn into a determent to their physical abilities on gamedays. In my opinion, that type of argument does have merit ..... but it's a much tougher argument to prove. And it isn't well received.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 12:46 PM by MplsBison.)
10-11-2017 12:41 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Pretty big weekend in the NY6 chase
(10-11-2017 12:32 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 11:06 AM)otown Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 10:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  
(10-11-2017 09:35 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I can't believe we are arguing over this. Stanford will lose at least 2 more games, and 3 is more likely. It is stupidity to even mention them running the table.

They will not lose three more games. They will lose one and two at the most. I have them losing to Washington and Washington State.

I don't know. What are you basing this on? They barely lost to SDSU and got creamed by USC. their wins were only against a mediocre at best ASU, and over ranked Utah team (please see who Utah actually won against to deserve their ranking), Rice (enough said), and UCLA (who has been underwhelming thus far).

Their remaining schedule:
Oregon - can see it going either way
Oregon State- win
Washington State- likely loss
Washington- Likely loss
California- can see it as a win or loss
ND- likely loss

I have been watching Pac-12 football over 10 years. And I have been watching all of these teams play all season.

California is going to get destroyed. And Stanford matches up perfectly against WSU. The only outright loss I see on their schedule is against Washington.

I love a team that loves to run the football from power formations. That's "real" football to me. So few of those teams, in today's game.

Don't know who Wash St added this year from last year, or if some of their players really improved that much in the off-season. But Minnesota, which has always been a run heavy team with average (at best) QB's, and varying level of defense, beat Wash St in the Holiday Bowl last year.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2017 12:44 PM by MplsBison.)
10-11-2017 12:43 PM
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