Captain Bearcat
All-American in Everything
Posts: 9,508
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 768
I Root For: UC
Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
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RE: NCAA Tournament Thread
(04-04-2023 12:17 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: (04-04-2023 11:33 AM)the_dude Wrote: (04-04-2023 11:03 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: (04-04-2023 10:13 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: (04-04-2023 10:01 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: UConn's region has way fewer teams vying for elite talent.
New England has 15 million people and 3 power basketball programs. Nearby NY & NJ have 31 million people and 4 power programs. (and this is using "power program" loosely, as it includes Providence, BC, Rutgers, and Seton Hall).
46/7 = 6.5 million people per power program
Ohio has 11.8 million people and 3 power basketball programs.
Indiana has 6.8 million people and 4 power basketball programs.
Kentucky has 4.5 million people and 2 power basketball programs.
23/9 = 2.6 million people per power program
So we're moving the goal posts to "power" programs now? Ok...using the same 300 mile radius from UConn, you have the following high major programs
Syracuse
St. Johns
Providence
Villanova
UConn
Boston College
Rutgers
Seton Hall
Georgetown
Maryland
Penn State
That's not even counting the 5 whole friggin conferences that sit in that circle, along with the high-mid majors like UMass, Temple, etc. who have been known to pull a kid.
Suffice it to say program concentration is not a worthy excuse in general as other schools have to contend with as much, if not more, and still make it work. Clearly, the problem is inconsistency at the top and a lack of recent success to build a recruiting identity off of. That can all change rather quickly.
300 miles is ridiculous to use. 300 miles from Cincinnati puts you in the suburbs of Atlanta, Charlotte, and Milwaukee.
But okay, I'll play the 300-mile game:
300 mile radius of Cincinnati: 19 power schools (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pitt, Illinois, Depaul, Northwestern, Michigan, MSU, plus 9 tri-state schools). Plus large mid-majors like Dayton, WKU, SLU, and Loyola.
300 mile radius of Stoors: 9 power schools (Maryland & Georgetown are 320 miles from UConn - if you count them for UConn, you also have to count Virginia, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Marquette, Georgia, and Georgia Tech for UC).
There are also more small schools in UC's region than UConn's region (which aren't really competition...)
New England has 21 D-1 programs. NY & NJ have 30. OH/KY/IN combine for 30 D-1 programs
51 programs/46 million people = 0.9 million people per D-1 school
30 programs/23 million people = 0.77 million people per D-1 school
# of NCAA championships
New England/NY/NJ: 7
OH/KY/IN: 18
# of schools who have won NCAA championships
New England/NY/NJ: 3 (CCNY, Syracuse, UConn)
OH/KY/IN: 5 (UK, IU, UC, OSU, UL)
# of schools who have been to a Final Four since 2000:
New England/NY/NJ: 2 (Syracuse, UConn)
OH/KY/IN: 5 (Kentucky, Louisville, Indiana, Ohio State, Butler. Does not count Dayton's 2020 AP poll finish)
(if you want to count Villanova & Maryland in the title & FF counts, then I'll raise you a Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Loyola, Marquette, and Wisconsin)
Ouch.... Bearcatman got burned by data.
No, he's just further proving the point that concentration of programs has nothing to do with a program's success. Why is Cincinnati the only team on those lists of aspirational peers that hasn't made it further than a Sweet Sixteen despite being in the Dame footprint as those same schools?
If you want to claim that we have too many programs around us and that's why we haven't been as successful, you're going to have to explain why we're the only school that is impacted by that.
I was responding to your post that "UConn scoffs at that type of saturation." No, they don't. UConn doesn't experience nearly the competition for local recruits that UC does.
You're changing the argument from UC vs UConn to UC vs OSU/UK/UL/Xavier/Purdue etc.
I agree with your new argument (that UC has fallen behind our local competition in the last 15 years), although it is a completely separate argument from your original point.
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