(03-22-2022 05:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I recently updated my spreadsheet showing the US population by state, curious to see what states were growing and by how much. I was surprised at something the data showed. The states with Big Ten teams had significantly lower total population than the other two P5 conferences with 14 teams. The ACC had the highest, at 109 MM. SEC was next at 102 MM and the B1G lagged with 86 MM.

Thinking about that in the context of strategic expansion targets led me to the question of whether the B1G might respond to the SEC's addition of UT and OU by making a push for four ACC schools: North Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech would be academically compatible and would, if they all came together, actually be geographically contiguous. Those schools would raise the population in the B1G footprint by 35%, taking them to 117 MM.

I realize that those schools don't exactly pack the stands on Saturdays for football, and aren't as ardent about football as a half dozen other ACC teams, but I no longer think a move like that is implausible.

Yeah, and the SEC can jump to ~123 million with just a North Carolina and Virginia school.

Ken, SEC leadership has anticipated this since 1990 which is why they are quite prepared to go larger to keep the B1G out. It's why a SEC with 4 six team divisions is not as out of the question as some may think.

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Duke, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

(03-22-2022 05:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I recently updated my spreadsheet showing the US population by state, curious to see what states were growing and by how much. I was surprised at something the data showed. The states with Big Ten teams had significantly lower total population than the other two P5 conferences with 14 teams. The ACC had the highest, at 109 MM. SEC was next at 102 MM and the B1G lagged with 86 MM.

Thinking about that in the context of strategic expansion targets led me to the question of whether the B1G might respond to the SEC's addition of UT and OU by making a push for four ACC schools: North Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech would be academically compatible and would, if they all came together, actually be geographically contiguous. Those schools would raise the population in the B1G footprint by 35%, taking them to 117 MM.

I realize that those schools don't exactly pack the stands on Saturdays for football, and aren't as ardent about football as a half dozen other ACC teams, but I no longer think a move like that is implausible.

Yes, If Warren has half a brain that's exactly what they do. Obviously they would like Notre Dame somewhere in that haul but absolutely they need to expand down the Atlantic coast.

This is an arms race and everyone is to scared of their damned shadows to act while the SEC/ESPN are absolutely looking to expand. If you don't think that you're not paying attention(not directed at you Ken).

The B1G's window to make a move is now.

I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

(03-22-2022 07:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

Well Muskie, in 2011 when Maryland departed UNC called on Birmingham to see if the worst happened and more joined the departure of Maryland (UVa & Ga Tech rumors) would the SEC take UNC and Duke as a pair? Supposedly, Slive said yes.

The week after OU and UT announced the SEC allegedly received another such inquiry.

So what I think will happen is that they will flirt heavily with the B1G to gain SEC concessions and the SEC will likely land them and the 2 Virginia schools, possibly adding Ga Tech, Clemson, FSU, and either Louisville or Miami. UNC alums favored the SEC by a wide margin in 2011.

(03-22-2022 08:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

Well Muskie, in 2011 when Maryland departed UNC called on Birmingham to see if the worst happened and more joined the departure of Maryland (UVa & Ga Tech rumors) would the SEC take UNC and Duke as a pair? Supposedly, Slive said yes.

The week after OU and UT announced the SEC allegedly received another such inquiry.

So what I think will happen is that they will flirt heavily with the B1G to gain SEC concessions and the SEC will likely land them and the 2 Virginia schools, possibly adding Ga Tech, Clemson, FSU, and either Louisville or Miami. UNC alums favored the SEC by a wide margin in 2011.

Interesting!!! Another school that I would add to that list possibly replacing Georgia Tech would be Wake Forest. Wake Forest brings at least a new city market and some pretty impressive football facilities, from what I hear (I know the stadium is small, but I am not referencing the stadium but rather the other facilities connected to the football program.)

(03-22-2022 07:01 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Yes, If Warren has half a brain that's exactly what they do. Obviously they would like Notre Dame somewhere in that haul but absolutely they need to expand down the Atlantic coast.

This is an arms race and everyone is to scared of their damned shadows to act while the SEC/ESPN are absolutely looking to expand. If you don't think that you're not paying attention(not directed at you Ken).

The B1G's window to make a move is now.

But what move can be made NOW?

There really isn't any.

I suppose the B1G could go in and grab UNC, UVa, et al right now, but that would be to assume a couple of things:

1) That their member schools and/or new schools are willing to drop hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees to a conference that may cease to exist, therefore no exit fees, in the not too distant future with a little patience;

2) On top of those hundreds of millions, paying hundreds of millions more in media rights to the ACC from the GOR while they play out trying to dissolve those GORs for years in the courts. Seems silly when they could just wait out the Supreme Court decision on pay-for-play, which may render GORs moot;

3) The most important: Does UNC actually prefer the B1G? UNC knows they're the big prize for both the SEC and the B1G, and they will flirt and plan accordingly.

It's easy to say the B1G needs to make a move. There's just no move to be made right this moment.

(03-22-2022 08:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

Well Muskie, in 2011 when Maryland departed UNC called on Birmingham to see if the worst happened and more joined the departure of Maryland (UVa & Ga Tech rumors) would the SEC take UNC and Duke as a pair? Supposedly, Slive said yes.

The week after OU and UT announced the SEC allegedly received another such inquiry.

So what I think will happen is that they will flirt heavily with the B1G to gain SEC concessions and the SEC will likely land them and the 2 Virginia schools, possibly adding Ga Tech, Clemson, FSU, and either Louisville or Miami. UNC alums favored the SEC by a wide margin in 2011.

I seem to recall rumor of this before, probably from you.

What you’re describing though would be a giant leap from 16 to 24 for the SEC and for ESPN that would mean paying top dollar to 8 programs they are currently getting at bargain rates. Is controlling the South that integral to ESPN’s business strategy to justify doing that? I think it might if part of that is going from having an SEC Network to a giant catalogue of SEC content available exclusively on ESPN+.

Letting the SEC tier 3 rights get away from them would be a giant blow to the SEC.

My 2nd question is this: do UNC/Duke/UVA really care about VT, GT, Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Louisville to fight to get them into the SEC? is it really worth it to add 8 ACC Southern schools to keep 3 of them away from the Big 10/FOX?

(03-23-2022 12:15 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 08:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

Well Muskie, in 2011 when Maryland departed UNC called on Birmingham to see if the worst happened and more joined the departure of Maryland (UVa & Ga Tech rumors) would the SEC take UNC and Duke as a pair? Supposedly, Slive said yes.

The week after OU and UT announced the SEC allegedly received another such inquiry.

So what I think will happen is that they will flirt heavily with the B1G to gain SEC concessions and the SEC will likely land them and the 2 Virginia schools, possibly adding Ga Tech, Clemson, FSU, and either Louisville or Miami. UNC alums favored the SEC by a wide margin in 2011.

I seem to recall rumor of this before, probably from you.

What you’re describing though would be a giant leap from 16 to 24 for the SEC and for ESPN that would mean paying top dollar to 8 programs they are currently getting at bargain rates. Is controlling the South that integral to ESPN’s business strategy to justify doing that? I think it might if part of that is going from having an SEC Network to a giant catalogue of SEC content available exclusively on ESPN+.

Letting the SEC tier 3 rights get away from them would be a giant blow to the SEC.

My 2nd question is this: do UNC/Duke/UVA really care about VT, GT, Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Louisville to fight to get them into the SEC? is it really worth it to add 8 ACC Southern schools to keep 3 of them away from the Big 10/FOX?

1. If the SEC landed Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and a Florida school (FSU or Miami) then no they do not need to expand further. Because the B1G 10 wouldn't dip down to Atlanta to pick up a school which is 60th in value and would be an outlier. This is why it would even be worth it to the SEC to add both Virginia schools and Duke & UNC. ESPN could then locate the rest in a merger with the B12 or vice versa.

2. I think UNC likes its association with Tech, but would they insist on them, no. UVa & Va Tech would be a state issue. UNC and UVa have had long association with Clemson. FSU, Miami, & Louisville would be on their own.

Is it worth it to add 8? To keep market dominance, probably. It is absolutely worth it for ESPN to move whatever they must to keep Duke & UNC. Virginia would just be part of that deal.

(03-22-2022 08:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

Well Muskie, in 2011 when Maryland departed UNC called on Birmingham to see if the worst happened and more joined the departure of Maryland (UVa & Ga Tech rumors) would the SEC take UNC and Duke as a pair? Supposedly, Slive said yes.

The week after OU and UT announced the SEC allegedly received another such inquiry.

So what I think will happen is that they will flirt heavily with the B1G to gain SEC concessions and the SEC will likely land them and the 2 Virginia schools, possibly adding Ga Tech, Clemson, FSU, and either Louisville or Miami. UNC alums favored the SEC by a wide margin in 2011.

If the SEC were to go to 20 at some point in the future, the logical schools would be UNC, UVA or Virginia Tech, FSU and Clemson, in that order. Fill out the south and bring in the two biggest brands.

(03-23-2022 06:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 08:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wonder what UNC, Duke, and UVA actually want to do. Staying in the ACC isn’t economically feasible, or doesn’t appear to be considering how much more the Big 10 and SEC are getting paid. Do they prefer going north with a bunch of fellow AAUs or South, for a Southern Conference reunion.

Well Muskie, in 2011 when Maryland departed UNC called on Birmingham to see if the worst happened and more joined the departure of Maryland (UVa & Ga Tech rumors) would the SEC take UNC and Duke as a pair? Supposedly, Slive said yes.

The week after OU and UT announced the SEC allegedly received another such inquiry.

So what I think will happen is that they will flirt heavily with the B1G to gain SEC concessions and the SEC will likely land them and the 2 Virginia schools, possibly adding Ga Tech, Clemson, FSU, and either Louisville or Miami. UNC alums favored the SEC by a wide margin in 2011.

If the SEC were to go to 20 at some point in the future, the logical schools would be UNC, UVA or Virginia Tech, FSU and Clemson, in that order. Fill out the south and bring in the two biggest brands.

I agree on the priority of your order and would prefer UNC, VT, FSU & Clemson. I am aware of a few things and believe it may be Duke, UNC, UVa/VaTech, and FSU/Miami.

I wouldn't rule out Clemson and FSU but ESPN may have other plans for them. We'll see.

I guess it depends on where the SEC sees the next level for them being: is that 18, 20, 24…

They’re going to make money regardless, it’s just a matter of wha they think will optimize their situation/weaken the other P5.

(03-23-2022 09:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I guess it depends on where the SEC sees the next level for them being: is that 18, 20, 24…

They’re going to make money regardless, it’s just a matter of wha they think will optimize their situation/weaken the other P5.

I can promise you this, and little has changed. In 1990 the SEC wanted to jump to 16 and their plan was to do so with Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Clemson. Sub Missouri for FSU and South Carolina for Clemson and I'd say we did pretty well, and with great focus and consistency.

The plan for 20 which Jackie Sherrill first discussed ~ 1993 or so was only operative to protect the SEC brand in the Southeast. 24 would only happen if absolutely necessary to accomplish that task.

Only the threat of ACC schools leaving for more money will prompt any growth would prompt more consolidation. Unfortunately 2 are looking and both are also looking on behalf of another. I think the right 20 and we stop. Now whether the SEC's right 20 is ESPN's right 20 is another matter entirely.

I liked to speculate about Kansas, but many would consider them out of region even though they mesh with Texas, Oklahoma & Missouri and border Arkansas. I see no desire for the SEC to seek to impinge anyone else, they just don't want another conference impinging them. If the four who were looking were the four we took, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Kansas would be wide open. And ESPN would likely have use of any remaining.

(03-23-2022 09:23 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:01 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Yes, If Warren has half a brain that's exactly what they do. Obviously they would like Notre Dame somewhere in that haul but absolutely they need to expand down the Atlantic coast.

This is an arms race and everyone is to scared of their damned shadows to act while the SEC/ESPN are absolutely looking to expand. If you don't think that you're not paying attention(not directed at you Ken).

The B1G's window to make a move is now.

But what move can be made NOW?

There really isn't any.

I suppose the B1G could go in and grab UNC, UVa, et al right now, but that would be to assume a couple of things:

1) That their member schools and/or new schools are willing to drop hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees to a conference that may cease to exist, therefore no exit fees, in the not too distant future with a little patience;

2) On top of those hundreds of millions, paying hundreds of millions more in media rights to the ACC from the GOR while they play out trying to dissolve those GORs for years in the courts. Seems silly when they could just wait out the Supreme Court decision on pay-for-play, which may render GORs moot;

3) The most important: Does UNC actually prefer the B1G? UNC knows they're the big prize for both the SEC and the B1G, and they will flirt and plan accordingly.

It's easy to say the B1G needs to make a move. There's just no move to be made right this moment.

When is the better time to make a move for ACC schools? After the SEC takes the schools you want?

The B1G is in the process of re-negotiating their TV contract, this is the optimal time to add new product to your package to get the most money possible. Adding schools like UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech would solidify the B1G's presence in the mid Atlantic region.

Let's talk money, conservative estimates of pay outs for the B1G and SEC on a per school basis has them at around 80 million a year. The ACC is paying out half that. Some of the more spectacular estimates have the schools making in the neighborhood 110 million per year. Oh, and both will probably re-negotiate TV contracts(SEC's 10 years starting in 24') before the ACC does. This means that by the time the ACC re-negotiates their TV deal, it is entirely possible schools in the B1G and SEC could be making nearly 4x's the money per year.

How about the GOR, The ACC currently has a 52 million dollar exit fee plus whatever buy out they would have to pay for the GOR, which is 26 million times the amount of years left on the contract.

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/giglio-the.../19805189/

So for fun let's say UNC was to agree to join the B1G in 2025, after the establishment of the new B1G TV contract. UNC exit fee in theory, 26 x 12 = 312 + 52 = 364 million. No way it's that big after litigation, but just to be nice to the ACC and because I like round numbers, let's say they settle at a pay out of 200 million dollars. Sounds like a ton of money but when you consider the per school payout is more than double in the B1G, UNC makes that money back in 5 years, and if it's on the bigger side of estimates they might make that money in 2.

So the B1G should be considering new markets to maximize their TV contract and many ACC schools are probably very willing to listen given their current situation.

The bigger thing I think you might be missing is that the SEC along with their handlers at ESPN are looking at expansion, and their targets are the same ones the B1G covet.

So you say not now, I'm saying if not now it will never happen.

(03-23-2022 11:16 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(03-23-2022 09:23 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:01 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Yes, If Warren has half a brain that's exactly what they do. Obviously they would like Notre Dame somewhere in that haul but absolutely they need to expand down the Atlantic coast.

This is an arms race and everyone is to scared of their damned shadows to act while the SEC/ESPN are absolutely looking to expand. If you don't think that you're not paying attention(not directed at you Ken).

The B1G's window to make a move is now.

But what move can be made NOW?

There really isn't any.

I suppose the B1G could go in and grab UNC, UVa, et al right now, but that would be to assume a couple of things:

1) That their member schools and/or new schools are willing to drop hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees to a conference that may cease to exist, therefore no exit fees, in the not too distant future with a little patience;

2) On top of those hundreds of millions, paying hundreds of millions more in media rights to the ACC from the GOR while they play out trying to dissolve those GORs for years in the courts. Seems silly when they could just wait out the Supreme Court decision on pay-for-play, which may render GORs moot;

3) The most important: Does UNC actually prefer the B1G? UNC knows they're the big prize for both the SEC and the B1G, and they will flirt and plan accordingly.

It's easy to say the B1G needs to make a move. There's just no move to be made right this moment.

When is the better time to make a move for ACC schools? After the SEC takes the schools you want?

The B1G is in the process of re-negotiating their TV contract, this is the optimal time to add new product to your package to get the most money possible. Adding schools like UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech would solidify the B1G's presence in the mid Atlantic region.

Let's talk money, conservative estimates of pay outs for the B1G and SEC on a per school basis has them at around 80 million a year. The ACC is paying out half that. Some of the more spectacular estimates have the schools making in the neighborhood 110 million per year. Oh, and both will probably re-negotiate TV contracts(SEC's 10 years starting in 24') before the ACC does. This means that by the time the ACC re-negotiates their TV deal, it is entirely possible schools in the B1G and SEC could be making nearly 4x's the money per year.

How about the GOR, The ACC currently has a 52 million dollar exit fee plus whatever buy out they would have to pay for the GOR, which is 26 million times the amount of years left on the contract.

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/giglio-the.../19805189/

So for fun let's say UNC was to agree to join the B1G in 2025, after the establishment of the new B1G TV contract. UNC exit fee in theory, 26 x 12 = 312 + 52 = 364 million. No way it's that big after litigation, but just to be nice to the ACC and because I like round numbers, let's say they settle at a pay out of 200 million dollars. Sounds like a ton of money but when you consider the per school payout is more than double in the B1G, UNC makes that money back in 5 years, and if it's on the bigger side of estimates they might make that money in 2.

So the B1G should be considering new markets to maximize their TV contract and many ACC schools are probably very willing to listen given their current situation.

The bigger thing I think you might be missing is that the SEC along with their handlers at ESPN are looking at expansion, and their targets are the same ones the B1G covet.

So you say not now, I'm saying if not now it will never happen.

Hint: The only thing anyone is waiting upon is the SCOTUS ruling on Pay for Play. When that hits GOR's won't be the cash formidable obstacle they are now. 52 Million is nothing compared to 75 million plus per year. It's the 26 million x 14 that stops things for now, but the dance cards are being filled.

(03-23-2022 11:16 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(03-23-2022 09:23 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(03-22-2022 07:01 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Yes, If Warren has half a brain that's exactly what they do. Obviously they would like Notre Dame somewhere in that haul but absolutely they need to expand down the Atlantic coast.

This is an arms race and everyone is to scared of their damned shadows to act while the SEC/ESPN are absolutely looking to expand. If you don't think that you're not paying attention(not directed at you Ken).

The B1G's window to make a move is now.

But what move can be made NOW?

There really isn't any.

I suppose the B1G could go in and grab UNC, UVa, et al right now, but that would be to assume a couple of things:

1) That their member schools and/or new schools are willing to drop hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees to a conference that may cease to exist, therefore no exit fees, in the not too distant future with a little patience;

2) On top of those hundreds of millions, paying hundreds of millions more in media rights to the ACC from the GOR while they play out trying to dissolve those GORs for years in the courts. Seems silly when they could just wait out the Supreme Court decision on pay-for-play, which may render GORs moot;

3) The most important: Does UNC actually prefer the B1G? UNC knows they're the big prize for both the SEC and the B1G, and they will flirt and plan accordingly.

It's easy to say the B1G needs to make a move. There's just no move to be made right this moment.

When is the better time to make a move for ACC schools? After the SEC takes the schools you want?

The B1G is in the process of re-negotiating their TV contract, this is the optimal time to add new product to your package to get the most money possible. Adding schools like UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech would solidify the B1G's presence in the mid Atlantic region.

Let's talk money, conservative estimates of pay outs for the B1G and SEC on a per school basis has them at around 80 million a year. The ACC is paying out half that. Some of the more spectacular estimates have the schools making in the neighborhood 110 million per year. Oh, and both will probably re-negotiate TV contracts(SEC's 10 years starting in 24') before the ACC does. This means that by the time the ACC re-negotiates their TV deal, it is entirely possible schools in the B1G and SEC could be making nearly 4x's the money per year.

How about the GOR, The ACC currently has a 52 million dollar exit fee plus whatever buy out they would have to pay for the GOR, which is 26 million times the amount of years left on the contract.

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/giglio-the.../19805189/

So for fun let's say UNC was to agree to join the B1G in 2025, after the establishment of the new B1G TV contract. UNC exit fee in theory, 26 x 12 = 312 + 52 = 364 million. No way it's that big after litigation, but just to be nice to the ACC and because I like round numbers, let's say they settle at a pay out of 200 million dollars. Sounds like a ton of money but when you consider the per school payout is more than double in the B1G, UNC makes that money back in 5 years, and if it's on the bigger side of estimates they might make that money in 2.

So the B1G should be considering new markets to maximize their TV contract and many ACC schools are probably very willing to listen given their current situation.

The bigger thing I think you might be missing is that the SEC along with their handlers at ESPN are looking at expansion, and their targets are the same ones the B1G covet.

So you say not now, I'm saying if not now it will never happen.

Not to split hairs, but the ACC exit fee is 3 x the current operating revenue. This would put the exit fee in the $100 million range. Unlike as in Maryland's departure (the Terps didn't agree to the current formula), all of the current ACC members (including Florida State) have signed off on and given approval to the exit fee formula. The chance for any reduction in court is tiny compared to Maryland's exit.

Here's a proposal for you. Refer back to post#38 in this thread, in which UNC and UVa go to the SEC. The ACC, SEC and Notre Dame go all in with ESPN under the following mutually agreed to terms.

ESPN agrees to maintain its payout to the ACC, only it is now split 12 ways instead of 14. The ACC contract is reworked to make it concurrent with that of the SEC and a new contract with Notre Dame. UNC and UVa media rights previously granted to the ACC are transferred to the SEC without additional compensation.

ESPN agrees to increase its payout to the SEC pro rata for the addition of UNC and UVa and those schools receive full shares from the SEC from Day One.

UNC and UVa each agree to pay their full $100 million exit fee, payable $20 million a year over five years (which they can easily pay out of their increased annual revenue from the SEC).

The SEC agrees not to poach any other ACC teams, staying at 18 member schools.

With UNC and UVa off the table, it no longer makes sense for the B1G to poach any ACC teams, and we have Realignment Peace In Our Time. The ACC, Big 12 and PAC are now guaranteed a spot in the playoff for their champions, and don't need to add any more members for the foreseeable future.

Notre Dame gets to keep its independence (and a pay raise to boot) and has a path to the playoff every year as a Wild Card. The SEC and B1G get two teams each into the playoff every year, and an additional lucrative CCT game. No rivalry games need to be lost throughout the P5 + ND.

A lot of stakeholders could be happy with a deal like this IMO. And ESPN could make it all happen.

(03-24-2022 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Here's a proposal for you. Refer back to post#38 in this thread, in which UNC and UVa go to the SEC. The ACC, SEC and Notre Dame go all in with ESPN under the following mutually agreed to terms.

ESPN agrees to maintain its payout to the ACC, only it is now split 12 ways instead of 14. The ACC contract is reworked to make it concurrent with that of the SEC and a new contract with Notre Dame. UNC and UVa media rights previously granted to the ACC are transferred to the SEC without additional compensation.

ESPN agrees to increase its payout to the SEC pro rata for the addition of UNC and UVa and those schools receive full shares from the SEC from Day One.

UNC and UVa each agree to pay their full $100 million exit fee, payable $20 million a year over five years (which they can easily pay out of their increased annual revenue from the SEC).

The SEC agrees not to poach any other ACC teams, staying at 18 member schools.

With UNC and UVa off the table, it no longer makes sense for the B1G to poach any ACC teams, and we have Realignment Peace In Our Time. The ACC, Big 12 and PAC are now guaranteed a spot in the playoff for their champions, and don't need to add any more members for the foreseeable future.

Notre Dame gets to keep its independence (and a pay raise to boot) and has a path to the playoff every year as a Wild Card. The SEC and B1G get two teams each into the playoff every year, and an additional lucrative CCT game. No rivalry games need to be lost throughout the P5 + ND.

A lot of stakeholders could be happy with a deal like this IMO. And ESPN could make it all happen.

I like the concept Ken D. The SEC pays full shares from day 1 anyway. I think the only fly in the ointment is that the Big Ten would remain at a monetary, and inventory deficit to the SEC so they would remain a looming threat to make a future play. Granted the in house handling of issues would discourage that for the duration of GOR's signed or resigned under pay for play, and so the threat would only be in the future.

For now I wouldn't see any issues.

(03-24-2022 07:17 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-24-2022 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Here's a proposal for you. Refer back to post#38 in this thread, in which UNC and UVa go to the SEC. The ACC, SEC and Notre Dame go all in with ESPN under the following mutually agreed to terms.

ESPN agrees to maintain its payout to the ACC, only it is now split 12 ways instead of 14. The ACC contract is reworked to make it concurrent with that of the SEC and a new contract with Notre Dame. UNC and UVa media rights previously granted to the ACC are transferred to the SEC without additional compensation.

ESPN agrees to increase its payout to the SEC pro rata for the addition of UNC and UVa and those schools receive full shares from the SEC from Day One.

UNC and UVa each agree to pay their full $100 million exit fee, payable $20 million a year over five years (which they can easily pay out of their increased annual revenue from the SEC).

The SEC agrees not to poach any other ACC teams, staying at 18 member schools.

With UNC and UVa off the table, it no longer makes sense for the B1G to poach any ACC teams, and we have Realignment Peace In Our Time. The ACC, Big 12 and PAC are now guaranteed a spot in the playoff for their champions, and don't need to add any more members for the foreseeable future.

Notre Dame gets to keep its independence (and a pay raise to boot) and has a path to the playoff every year as a Wild Card. The SEC and B1G get two teams each into the playoff every year, and an additional lucrative CCT game. No rivalry games need to be lost throughout the P5 + ND.

A lot of stakeholders could be happy with a deal like this IMO. And ESPN could make it all happen.

I like the concept Ken D. The SEC pays full shares from day 1 anyway. I think the only fly in the ointment is that the Big Ten would remain at a monetary, and inventory deficit to the SEC so they would remain a looming threat to make a future play. Granted the in house handling of issues would discourage that for the duration of GOR's signed or resigned under pay for play, and so the threat would only be in the future.

For now I wouldn't see any issues.

I think the key to stopping Eastern expansion by the Big Ten is taking the two AAU schools which are geographically closest - namely, UVA and UNC. I don't think the Big Ten wants any outliers, nor are they all that interested in non-AAU schools, apparently. It would really shift their eyes towards Kansas, IMHO.

(03-23-2022 11:16 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  When is the better time to make a move for ACC schools? After the SEC takes the schools you want?

The B1G is in the process of re-negotiating their TV contract, this is the optimal time to add new product to your package to get the most money possible. Adding schools like UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech would solidify the B1G's presence in the mid Atlantic region.

Let's talk money, conservative estimates of pay outs for the B1G and SEC on a per school basis has them at around 80 million a year. The ACC is paying out half that. Some of the more spectacular estimates have the schools making in the neighborhood 110 million per year. Oh, and both will probably re-negotiate TV contracts(SEC's 10 years starting in 24') before the ACC does. This means that by the time the ACC re-negotiates their TV deal, it is entirely possible schools in the B1G and SEC could be making nearly 4x's the money per year.

How about the GOR, The ACC currently has a 52 million dollar exit fee plus whatever buy out they would have to pay for the GOR, which is 26 million times the amount of years left on the contract.

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/giglio-the.../19805189/

So for fun let's say UNC was to agree to join the B1G in 2025, after the establishment of the new B1G TV contract. UNC exit fee in theory, 26 x 12 = 312 + 52 = 364 million. No way it's that big after litigation, but just to be nice to the ACC and because I like round numbers, let's say they settle at a pay out of 200 million dollars. Sounds like a ton of money but when you consider the per school payout is more than double in the B1G, UNC makes that money back in 5 years, and if it's on the bigger side of estimates they might make that money in 2.

So the B1G should be considering new markets to maximize their TV contract and many ACC schools are probably very willing to listen given their current situation.

The bigger thing I think you might be missing is that the SEC along with their handlers at ESPN are looking at expansion, and their targets are the same ones the B1G covet.

So you say not now, I'm saying if not now it will never happen.

1) As mentioned above, the exit fee is more like $100 million.

2) When we've seen exits renegotiated down in the past, that's been with exit fees. GORs are a whole different animal, otherwise UT/OU would have already done so and would be playing in the SEC in '22. There's absolutely no incentive for the old conference to negotiate that down. Either the leaving teams pay the market rate to get out of it, or the conference just collects that money by hanging on to the media rights. There's no benefit to letting them go for less.

3) The B1G won't just take 1 team. They'd be looking at at least 2 and maybe even 4-6. So right now you're looking at $1 billion+. And yes, the SEC and B1G are looking at a lot of the same teams. A team like UNC knows this and will go where the best deal is. So a lot of that money wouldn't be paid by UNC; it would be paid by the current member institutions of the B1G.

4) The most important thing, though, is what JR alludes to: why would you pay all that money now when the landscape is still so in flux? Why lose $1 billion when a SCOTUS ruling in a couple of years may render it all moot?

(03-24-2022 11:14 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(03-23-2022 11:16 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  When is the better time to make a move for ACC schools? After the SEC takes the schools you want?

The B1G is in the process of re-negotiating their TV contract, this is the optimal time to add new product to your package to get the most money possible. Adding schools like UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech would solidify the B1G's presence in the mid Atlantic region.

Let's talk money, conservative estimates of pay outs for the B1G and SEC on a per school basis has them at around 80 million a year. The ACC is paying out half that. Some of the more spectacular estimates have the schools making in the neighborhood 110 million per year. Oh, and both will probably re-negotiate TV contracts(SEC's 10 years starting in 24') before the ACC does. This means that by the time the ACC re-negotiates their TV deal, it is entirely possible schools in the B1G and SEC could be making nearly 4x's the money per year.

How about the GOR, The ACC currently has a 52 million dollar exit fee plus whatever buy out they would have to pay for the GOR, which is 26 million times the amount of years left on the contract.

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/giglio-the.../19805189/

So for fun let's say UNC was to agree to join the B1G in 2025, after the establishment of the new B1G TV contract. UNC exit fee in theory, 26 x 12 = 312 + 52 = 364 million. No way it's that big after litigation, but just to be nice to the ACC and because I like round numbers, let's say they settle at a pay out of 200 million dollars. Sounds like a ton of money but when you consider the per school payout is more than double in the B1G, UNC makes that money back in 5 years, and if it's on the bigger side of estimates they might make that money in 2.

So the B1G should be considering new markets to maximize their TV contract and many ACC schools are probably very willing to listen given their current situation.

The bigger thing I think you might be missing is that the SEC along with their handlers at ESPN are looking at expansion, and their targets are the same ones the B1G covet.

So you say not now, I'm saying if not now it will never happen.

1) As mentioned above, the exit fee is more like $100 million.

2) When we've seen exits renegotiated down in the past, that's been with exit fees. GORs are a whole different animal, otherwise UT/OU would have already done so and would be playing in the SEC in '22. There's absolutely no incentive for the old conference to negotiate that down. Either the leaving teams pay the market rate to get out of it, or the conference just collects that money by hanging on to the media rights. There's no benefit to letting them go for less.

3) The B1G won't just take 1 team. They'd be looking at at least 2 and maybe even 4-6. So right now you're looking at $1 billion+. And yes, the SEC and B1G are looking at a lot of the same teams. A team like UNC knows this and will go where the best deal is. So a lot of that money wouldn't be paid by UNC; it would be paid by the current member institutions of the B1G.

4) The most important thing, though, is what JR alludes to: why would you pay all that money now when the landscape is still so in flux? Why lose $1 billion when a SCOTUS ruling in a couple of years may render it all moot?

The proposal I outlined (in which UNC and UVa elect to go to the SEC instead of the B1G) assumes that pay for play is a fait accompli, and that all current P5 schools are willing to pay to be compliant. At that point, it doesn't matter to them whether any G5 schools follow suit, and it probably isn't all that necessary for any of the G5 to do so, because they would probably still get nearly all the same recruits whether they do or they don't.

The fact that athletes all would have professional options based on their ability and open market forces should insulate the P5 and individual conferences from further lawsuits or complaints about monopoly.