(03-23-2022 09:23 AM)djsuperfly Wrote: (03-22-2022 07:01 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: Yes, If Warren has half a brain that's exactly what they do. Obviously they would like Notre Dame somewhere in that haul but absolutely they need to expand down the Atlantic coast.
This is an arms race and everyone is to scared of their damned shadows to act while the SEC/ESPN are absolutely looking to expand. If you don't think that you're not paying attention(not directed at you Ken).
The B1G's window to make a move is now.
But what move can be made NOW?
There really isn't any.
I suppose the B1G could go in and grab UNC, UVa, et al right now, but that would be to assume a couple of things:
1) That their member schools and/or new schools are willing to drop hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees to a conference that may cease to exist, therefore no exit fees, in the not too distant future with a little patience;
2) On top of those hundreds of millions, paying hundreds of millions more in media rights to the ACC from the GOR while they play out trying to dissolve those GORs for years in the courts. Seems silly when they could just wait out the Supreme Court decision on pay-for-play, which may render GORs moot;
3) The most important: Does UNC actually prefer the B1G? UNC knows they're the big prize for both the SEC and the B1G, and they will flirt and plan accordingly.
It's easy to say the B1G needs to make a move. There's just no move to be made right this moment.
When is the better time to make a move for ACC schools? After the SEC takes the schools you want?
The B1G is in the process of re-negotiating their TV contract, this is the optimal time to add new product to your package to get the most money possible. Adding schools like UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech would solidify the B1G's presence in the mid Atlantic region.
Let's talk money, conservative estimates of pay outs for the B1G and SEC on a per school basis has them at around 80 million a year. The ACC is paying out half that. Some of the more spectacular estimates have the schools making in the neighborhood 110 million per year. Oh, and both will probably re-negotiate TV contracts(SEC's 10 years starting in 24') before the ACC does. This means that by the time the ACC re-negotiates their TV deal, it is entirely possible schools in the B1G and SEC could be making nearly 4x's the money per year.
How about the GOR, The ACC currently has a 52 million dollar exit fee plus whatever buy out they would have to pay for the GOR, which is 26 million times the amount of years left on the contract.
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/giglio-the.../19805189/
So for fun let's say UNC was to agree to join the B1G in 2025, after the establishment of the new B1G TV contract. UNC exit fee in theory, 26 x 12 = 312 + 52 = 364 million. No way it's that big after litigation, but just to be nice to the ACC and because I like round numbers, let's say they settle at a pay out of 200 million dollars. Sounds like a ton of money but when you consider the per school payout is more than double in the B1G, UNC makes that money back in 5 years, and if it's on the bigger side of estimates they might make that money in 2.
So the B1G should be considering new markets to maximize their TV contract and many ACC schools are probably very willing to listen given their current situation.
The bigger thing I think you might be missing is that the SEC along with their handlers at ESPN are looking at expansion, and their targets are the same ones the B1G covet.
So you say not now, I'm saying if not now it will never happen.