Realignment happens in waves so here's my fantasy about what is about to go down.

Wave 1: Texas and OU to the SEC (Big 12 does not add but instead remaining 8 members try to find a new home)

Wave 2: Pac12 invites Kansas and Oklahoma St (Big 12 begins to look at adding new members)

Wave 3: In a surprise move Texas A&M pissed because they were left out of the Texas/OU plan accepts an invite to go to the Big 10 taking Iowa St along for the ride.

Wave 4: Things at the P5 level seem to settle down with the SEC trying to persuade an ACC school to join to replace Texas A&M so what's left of the Big 12 are forced to add schools. The 5 remaining Big 12 schools invite Cincinnati, Houston and Colorado St to make 8 but hold there for now.

Wave 5: The SEC invites NC St to join from the ACC to get back to 16. The MWC invites UTEP to replace Colorado St but the American holds at 9 for now and CUSA holds at 13. The ACC finally entices Notre Dame to become a full member adding football to make the conference 14 football members again.

Wave 6: After a couple of seasons of stability the Big 12 adds SMU and Memphis to get to 10 members but holds again. Boise and BYU decide they want no part of the new American so the American invites Georgia State, UAB, Rice, So. Miss. and Liberty to get to 12 members. The Sun Belt invites Marshall to return to 10 members. CUSA calls up James Madison from FCS to get to 10 members. Realignment pauses again.

American - 12
ECU
Navy (FB only)
S. Florida
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa
UCF
Georgia St
UAB
Liberty
Rice
So Miss

ACC - 14
Boston College
Clemson
Duke
FSU
GT
Louisville
Miami (FL)
UNC
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Virginia
VA Tech
Wake Forest
Notre Dame

Big 12 - 10
Baylor
Kansas St
TCU
Texas Tech
WVU
Cincinnati
Houston
Colorado St
SMU
Memphis

Big 10 - 16
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan St
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio St
Penn St
Purdue
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Iowa St
Texas A&M

CUSA - 10
Charlotte
FIU
FAU
La Tech
Middle Tenn
N Texas
Old Dominion
UTSA
WKU
James Madison

Independents - 5
Army
BYU
NMSU
UMass
UConn

MAC - 12
Akron
Ball St
Bowling Green
Buffalo
C. Mich
E. Mich
Kent St
Miami (OH)
N. Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
W. Mich

MWC - 12
Air Force
Boise St
Fresno St
Hawaii (FB Only)
Nevada
New Mexico
San Diego St
San Jose St
UNLV
Utah St
Wyoming
UTEP

Pac 12 - 14
Arizona
Arizona St
Cal
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington
Washington St
Kansas
Oklahoma St

SEC - 16
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Miss St
Missouri
Ole Miss
S. Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Texas
Oklahoma
NC St

SBC - 10
App St
Arkansas St
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Louisiana
ULM
S. Alabama
Texas St
Troy
Marshall

(07-23-2021 04:34 PM)OscarWildeCat Wrote:  According to this report, the B12 is interested in these four schools if Texas and OU bolt, and could take two even if OU/UT stay put- Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...nnati-byu/

It's literally a quote from the ESPN article that has the quote (emphasis is mine):

Quote:Here are the details of ESPN’s reporting:

"During Thursday’s meeting, conference officials also scratched the surface on discussions of what the Big 12 might do if OU and Texas left, and one source said that included looking into whether there were other Power 5 programs that might want to join, or if schools like UCF, Houston, Cincinnati or BYU might make good additions. There was some appetite in the meeting for possibly adding two teams even if OU and Texas decide to stay.

None of those conversations gained significant traction, though"

You have to read ALL of the words and not just the ones that you want to be true.

USFFan

Break out the old logo.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-for-sec/

I hate to say that these almost all make sense.

If this happens, the AAC would come out a winner.

(07-23-2021 04:54 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 04:34 PM)OscarWildeCat Wrote:  According to this report, the B12 is interested in these four schools if Texas and OU bolt, and could take two even if OU/UT stay put- Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...nnati-byu/

It's literally a quote from the ESPN article that has the quote (emphasis is mine):

Quote:Here are the details of ESPN’s reporting:

"During Thursday’s meeting, conference officials also scratched the surface on discussions of what the Big 12 might do if OU and Texas left, and one source said that included looking into whether there were other Power 5 programs that might want to join, or if schools like UCF, Houston, Cincinnati or BYU might make good additions. There was some appetite in the meeting for possibly adding two teams even if OU and Texas decide to stay.

None of those conversations gained significant traction, though"

You have to read ALL of the words and not just the ones that you want to be true.

USFFan

they need to gain traction. UCF, Houston, BYU, Cincy would boost their football a lot over sitting on their thumbs. Plus it protects from dwindling to nothing if the B1G takes Kansas or ACC takes WVU or Pac takes OSU, TT

(07-23-2021 05:15 PM)Artifice Wrote:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-for-sec/

I hate to say that these almost all make sense.

If this happens, the AAC would come out a winner.

Except even if it did, it would make more sense for Texas Tech and Baylor to invite the entire AAC over instead of moving into the AAC:

USFFan

(07-23-2021 05:18 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 05:15 PM)Artifice Wrote:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-for-sec/

I hate to say that these almost all make sense.

If this happens, the AAC would come out a winner.

Except even if it did, it would make more sense for Texas Tech and Baylor to invite the entire AAC over instead of moving into the AAC:

USFFan

That right there is huge. And an incentive to draw teams from the AAC or MWC

The party of free markets and limited government, everybody!

USFFan

(07-23-2021 05:21 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 05:18 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 05:15 PM)Artifice Wrote:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-for-sec/

I hate to say that these almost all make sense.

If this happens, the AAC would come out a winner.

Except even if it did, it would make more sense for Texas Tech and Baylor to invite the entire AAC over instead of moving into the AAC:

USFFan

That right there is huge. And an incentive to draw teams from the AAC or MWC

Yep

Even if it's Baylor by itself, the Big 12 shell will survive and rebuild

(07-23-2021 10:56 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Big 14

S: SMU, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, Memphis, UCF

N: OK state, KU, K State, Iowa State, Col State, Cincy, WVU

Football only to BYU and X

X = pool of AFA, Navy or San Diego state maybe jump to 18 if they all agree

FIXED IT. But I agree with your teams as I think BYU will be politically controversial.

WEST: Houston/Baylor, TCU/SMU, Texas Tech/Oklahoma State, Colorado State.

EAST: KU/KSU, ISU/Memphis, WVU/Cincy, UCF.

(07-23-2021 05:23 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 05:21 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 05:18 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 05:15 PM)Artifice Wrote:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-for-sec/

I hate to say that these almost all make sense.

If this happens, the AAC would come out a winner.

Except even if it did, it would make more sense for Texas Tech and Baylor to invite the entire AAC over instead of moving into the AAC:

USFFan

That right there is huge. And an incentive to draw teams from the AAC or MWC

Yep

Even if it's Baylor by itself, the Big 12 shell will survive and rebuild

Yup. If it gets down to 2 or 3---I could see it being a virtual merger (or close to it) of the AAC and remaining B12 schools under the B12 banner.

PAC-16: There are two problems here. One, the Arizona schools have to be kept happy by playing two California schools in their division. Second, to max out the state of California and Texas TV audience, two California schools really need to be in the east.

WEST DIVISION: UCLA, Southern Cal, Arizona, Arizona State,Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State.

EAST DIVISION: Stanford, Cal, Utah, Colorado, Houston, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State.

https://sports.yahoo.com/with-ou-and-tex...25168.html

How will the Big 12 stay open? Everything will be on the table. One source indicated it could go as large as 16 schools. Could a Western wing with San Diego State, BYU, Boise State and Colorado State be flanked by additions like Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and USF? Those are huge markets and promising programs. The Texas schools in the league – Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU – are expected to try and undercut Houston, but there aren’t many Group of Five programs that have its combination of local population and fertile recruiting ground.

REVENUE FOR PAC-12 AND REMAINING BIG-12 SCHOOLS
No data available for private schools.
The argument will be made that Texas U and Oklahoma U boosted the remaining Big-12 schools. The counter argument is that having membership in the PAC will keep the revenue generated by the remaining Big 12 schools at the same level as before.......and that bringing in the state of Texas and other Big 12 states will boost PAC tv viewership because of population and PAC playing in CST.

#23 Washington, $135.8M
#27 Arizona State, $211.7M
#28 KANSAS, $121.6M
#35 UCLA, $108.4M
#38 Arizona, $105.1M
#40 WEST VIRGINIA, $102.7M
#41 Utah, $99.5M
#43 TEXAS TECH, $96.6M
#44 IOWA STATE, $95.4M
#45 OKLAHOMA STATE, $95.3M
#48 Colorado, $94.9M
#49 California, $87.5M
#51 Oregon State, $82.1M
#53 HOUSTON, $75M
#54 Washington State, $71.9M

IF nobody picks up KU or anyone else, the Big XII will have to do something. Seems that 10 is the absolute minimum. Maybe as follows, depending on how big they want to grow:

Houston & Cincy - 10
USF & UCF -12
CSU & Memphis - 14
UNM & UNLV - 16

I think you have to make a move in TX if UT goes. TCU and Houston would put games in the two biggest markets (DFW/Houston), even if they’re lesser brands. We’d have games IN both cities, and local media coverage in those important markets.

USF & UCF get us into FL. They have big enrollments too.

Beyond that are more respectable but not top-shelf brands, but more geographic expansion. How relevant that is in an era of declining cable subscription is up for debate. There’s also the issue of over diluting distribution of a smaller total sum.

We wouldn’t compete with the top conferences on brand names, but could be respectable and sustainable as the best of the rest. Each move also diminishes other competitors for that status, but the reality is we couldn’t poach a power conference

(07-23-2021 08:35 PM)Tulsa Guy Wrote:  REVENUE FOR PAC-12 AND REMAINING BIG-12 SCHOOLS
No data available for private schools.
The argument will be made that Texas U and Oklahoma U boosted the remaining Big-12 schools. The counter argument is that having membership in the PAC will keep the revenue generated by the remaining Big 12 schools at the same level as before.......and that bringing in the state of Texas and other Big 12 states will boost PAC tv viewership because of population and PAC playing in CST.

#23 Washington, $135.8M
#27 Arizona State, $211.7M
#28 KANSAS, $121.6M
#35 UCLA, $108.4M
#38 Arizona, $105.1M
#40 WEST VIRGINIA, $102.7M
#41 Utah, $99.5M
#43 TEXAS TECH, $96.6M
#44 IOWA STATE, $95.4M
#45 OKLAHOMA STATE, $95.3M
#48 Colorado, $94.9M
#49 California, $87.5M
#51 Oregon State, $82.1M
#53 HOUSTON, $75M
#54 Washington State, $71.9M

Use equity in Athletics. Everyone, including private schools has to report following the same format, as it's part of the requirement to have access to Pell grants and other federal money. It's as close as you will get to apples to apples comparisons.

Expenses are more reliable than revenues, as the latter includes transfers rather than generated income. Expenses are how much they spend.

(07-23-2021 09:32 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  IF nobody picks up KU or anyone else, the Big XII will have to do something. Seems that 10 is the absolute minimum. Maybe as follows, depending on how big they want to grow:

Houston & Cincy - 10
USF & UCF -12
CSU & Memphis - 14
UNM & UNLV - 16

I think you have to make a move in TX if UT goes. TCU and Houston would put games in the two biggest markets (DFW/Houston), even if they’re lesser brands. We’d have games IN both cities, and local media coverage in those important markets.

USF & UCF get us into FL. They have big enrollments too.

Beyond that are more respectable but not top-shelf brands, but more geographic expansion. How relevant that is in an era of declining cable subscription is up for debate. There’s also the issue of over diluting distribution of a smaller total sum.

We wouldn’t compete with the top conferences on brand names, but could be respectable and sustainable as the best of the rest. Each move also diminishes other competitors for that status, but the reality is we couldn’t poach a power conference

Curious as to why you have these schools ahead of BYU and Boise.

If Little 8 seek to stay together and ride this out, I could see an immediate add of Cinci and Houston. Ship stable, I could see feelers to BYU and UCF - I guess you end up with

B12 East
WV, Cinci, UCF, Baylor, TCU, ISU

B12 West
KU, KSU, OSU, TT, BYU, Houston

(07-23-2021 05:23 PM)usffan Wrote:  

The party of free markets and limited government, everybody!

USFFan

Too bad for that clown that the Texas legislature can't even consider his bill until 2023, unless the governor, who graduated from UT, calls a special session that specifically includes the topic of that bill.

(07-23-2021 10:43 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 09:32 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  IF nobody picks up KU or anyone else, the Big XII will have to do something. Seems that 10 is the absolute minimum. Maybe as follows, depending on how big they want to grow:

Houston & Cincy - 10
USF & UCF -12
CSU & Memphis - 14
UNM & UNLV - 16

I think you have to make a move in TX if UT goes. TCU and Houston would put games in the two biggest markets (DFW/Houston), even if they’re lesser brands. We’d have games IN both cities, and local media coverage in those important markets.

USF & UCF get us into FL. They have big enrollments too.

Beyond that are more respectable but not top-shelf brands, but more geographic expansion. How relevant that is in an era of declining cable subscription is up for debate. There’s also the issue of over diluting distribution of a smaller total sum.

We wouldn’t compete with the top conferences on brand names, but could be respectable and sustainable as the best of the rest. Each move also diminishes other competitors for that status, but the reality is we couldn’t poach a power conference

Curious as to why you have these schools ahead of BYU and Boise.

Boise has a fine football program, but they’re more remote than the others, and while brands may be more prominent than markets in this round, I still think that the others would be better long term. Admittedly UNM has issues, but CSU is a good school and getting back into CO is desirable, and UNLV has some potential glamour appeal for road trips even if they’d mostly be business.

I think BYU would trigger campus protests even in the relatively more conservative schools. No social issue is more prominent to current students than LGBTQ.