(07-24-2021 08:04 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-24-2021 12:46 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Although its an outside shot at this point the XII could take Temple and UConn FB only to go to 16.

Though do bear in mind his "inside shots" are often from midcourt.

(07-25-2021 10:36 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:27 AM)Claw Wrote:  A less likely but still possible scenario is Kansas and OK State both going to the SEC as well.

IMO, the SEC would have no interest in either school. They would be mouths to feed from an SEC point of view.

Not that I am necessarily the Oracle about what the SEC point of view is, LOL. But I don't see why the SEC would want them at all.

The SEC works because of geography, not accountants. They know that. Those schools fit with OK and Mizzou. That type of fit is how you become the only game that matters, and being the only game that matters is what drives the money.

IMO, they aren't worth $55 million each.

But let's say they are. If we are talking "fit", I think there would be a danger to the SEC in bringing them in. The SEC already has Arkansas, Missouri and Texas AM. Now throw in Texas and OU. That's 5 schools with basically Big 12/SWC/Big 8 histories. These schools have a southwestern/western kind of culture. That alone could cause a kind of schism in outlook for a conference that has a southeastern culture.

Bring in KU and OSU, and now you are talking 7 of 18 teams with an essentially southwestern/great plains outlook. That IMO changes the character of the conference, and in a way that is undesirable from the POV of core SEC members.

Be careful you don't bite off more than you can chew. Heck, the Big 8 thought it was swallowing the SWC, but ended up swallowed by them.

5 out of 16 is enough of that influence, IMO.

For that reason, if the SEC is really bent on going to 18, I think it will almost surely be in the other direction, towards the East, inviting ACC schools like maybe Clemson or FSU or North Carolina or Virginia, maybe even NC State. Two from that group. That bolsters the "southeastern" culture.

If Texas and OU go to the SEC, it really does change the balance of power at the top. Looking at top 5 finishes over the last 53 years (from 1968), it would look like
MNC
SEC 23
ACC 12
B10 10
P12 4
ND 3
BYU 1

Top 3 finishes
SEC 58
B10 34
ACC 31
P12 25
ND 6
B12 3
BYU 1
AAC 1

Top 5 finishes
SEC 94 (11 of 14 teams-all but UK, VU and A&M)
B10 60 (6 of 14)
ACC 43 (8 of 14)
P12 43 (10 of 12-all but WSU and Cal)
ND 12
B12 5
AAC 4 (SMU and UH in SWC days)
BYU 2
Boise 2

OU and Texas would be 2nd and 3rd behind Alabama in top finishes in the SEC, representing 6 AP MNCs, 22 top 3 finishes and 33 top 5.
So SEC would be at 17 MNCs, 36 top 3 and 61 top 5, just a little ahead of the rest. Big 12 would be 4th in MNCs, tied for 4th in top 3 (but 2nd per school) and 5th in top 5 (but 3rd per school).

(07-25-2021 10:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:36 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:27 AM)Claw Wrote:  A less likely but still possible scenario is Kansas and OK State both going to the SEC as well.

IMO, the SEC would have no interest in either school. They would be mouths to feed from an SEC point of view.

Not that I am necessarily the Oracle about what the SEC point of view is, LOL. But I don't see why the SEC would want them at all.

The SEC works because of geography, not accountants. They know that. Those schools fit with OK and Mizzou. That type of fit is how you become the only game that matters, and being the only game that matters is what drives the money.

IMO, they aren't worth $55 million each.

But let's say they are. If we are talking "fit", I think there would be a danger to the SEC in bringing them in. The SEC already has Arkansas, Missouri and Texas AM. Now throw in Texas and OU. That's 5 schools with basically Big 12/SWC/Big 8 histories. These schools have a southwestern/western kind of culture. That alone could cause a kind of schism in outlook for a conference that has a southeastern culture.

Bring in KU and OSU, and now you are talking 7 of 18 teams with an essentially southwestern/great plains outlook. That IMO changes the character of the conference, and in a way that is undesirable from the POV of core SEC members.

Be careful you don't bite off more than you can chew. Heck, the Big 8 thought it was swallowing the SWC, but ended up swallowed by them.

5 out of 16 is enough of that influence, IMO.

For that reason, if the SEC is really bent on going to 18, I think it will almost surely be in the other direction, towards the East, inviting ACC schools like maybe Clemson or FSU or North Carolina or Virginia, maybe even NC State. Two from that group. That bolsters the "southeastern" culture.

I think you have an excellent point.

(07-25-2021 10:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 11:53 AM)Artifice Wrote:  Kansas is going to bounce to the B1G...

I'm not so sure. Set aside the issue of how valuable KU athletics is, Kansas has some issues right now that besmirch the two things it does have - hoops and a decent academic rep thanks to AAU.

Hoops is under a big NCAA cloud right now. And no, the NCAA hasn't gone away just yet.

Maybe even more important is the recent scandal that resulted in the departures of Les Miles and Jeff Long. That involved allegations of sexual misconduct, which is a hot-wire issue for liberal activists on campus. I can imagine someone speaking up in a PAC or B1G meeting and saying that we don't want to touch Kansas right now because that would likely draw prominent criticism.

So IMO, Kansas has some baggage right now, which is the worst time to be having it.

The allegations about sexual misconduct as to Miles occurred during the time Miles was at LSU, not KU. However, they only became public after Long (the AD) brought Miles to KU.

If UT and OU go to the SEC, and the other three conferences stay put, I actually think the Big 12 will remain autonomy status like the Big East did after Miami and VaTech left. If so, the only additions that I think would add value (if they would accept) would be BYU and Gonzaga (Olympic sports). It would create a neat 8-game schedule in football and 18-game schedule in basketball only splitting the football money 9 ways.

B12 should start expanding immediately and not wait to lose more members..

(07-25-2021 08:15 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  If UT and OU go to the SEC, and the other three conferences stay put, I actually think the Big 12 will remain autonomy status like the Big East did after Miami and VaTech left. If so, the only additions that I think would add value (if they would accept) would be BYU and Gonzaga (Olympic sports). It would create a neat 8-game schedule in football and 18-game schedule in basketball only splitting the football money 9 ways.

You know,,,,it's that type of thinking that has UConn football where it is at now

Houston and SMU look like fantastic fits thanks to their 31% and 32% lifetime win % respectively vs. current Big 12 opponents.

They can be to the Big 12 what Rutgers and Maryland have become for the Big Ten.

Add a big market (although they're already in Dallas, but who knows TCU already schedules SMU annually home-and-home non-conference so clearly they want to play them) where there's alumni, HS talent, etc. who will also increase the annual win total for your current programs.

It's when those programs start winning where you have actual problems.

(07-25-2021 08:45 PM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  B12 should start expanding immediately and not wait to lose more members..

I don't think we have to worry about anyone else leaving as the remaining 8 schools don't have any actual offers from the other 3 conferences and no one is paying a $76 million exit fee to play in the American.

What 'will' happen to the Big 12?

1) MAYBE Kansas gets a Big Ten offer.
2) The conference will reload to 10 or 12 members, no frim read on who
3) a decade passes (probably less)
4) The ACC is fleeced by the SEC & B1G; the ACC reloads with 2021-current AAC teams in the East (including some who went to the Big 12)
5) The Big 12 stays or rounds up to an even number with a CTZ addition

I wonder what ESPN will do to the TV Deal.

Remember that the big draws were connected to UT/OU. The presence of those two also passively improved everyone else by adding legitimacy to those games. If the standing members don't get into another power conference, it will be about 3 years until they all play at an AAC/MWC level.

ESPN will pay a sizable contract to the “neo” Big 12 conference which becomes a P5 lite. It may be advantageous for the P4 to maintain a tweener power conference such that the perception of the “Great Divide” is lessened somewhat.

You can negotiate a Bowl between neo Big 12 and ACC #2 vs 2/3. Not sure this would merit NYD status but it could based on how I think the schedules will play out. Also bowl options with the SEC #4/5. This is all under the assumption the 12 team playoff becomes a thing. I think it’s more likely to be a 4+8 structure than a 6+6, which would incentivize tough OOC scheduling for “P5” teams.

All in all, if they don’t lose any more schools I think they fetch a contract that is close to 20 million year per football school (slightly less perhaps if BYU is not on board).

I think 10 schools is enough with UC and BYU. I don’t see the value for Houston unless they want to gut the AAC and drive down the value of its next TV contract. It will be a blood bath for the 11th and 12th spot in the Big12, but I think ESPN makes em’ take Memphis, no doubt about it. I don’t think UCF gets a bid on an island. Pecking order for football is BYU, UC, Memphis, Houston, UCF, USF.

What I would like to see is for the Big 12 to replace OU and UT with four schools getting back to 12 teams. The four I would like to see are Cincinnati (all sports), Navy, Army and Air Force (all FB only). They could also add Wichita State for O/S.

Only Cincy would get a full revenue share, while the academies get a flat rate that keeps them at least whole compared to where they are now. Probably $8 million each would do that nicely.

The divisions (8 game schedule, 3 crossovers):

TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Army, Navy, Air Force
Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Cincinnati, West Virginia

Ideally, the MWC would accommodate AFA's Olympic sports, and would restructure FB like this. Hawaii is an affiliate member for FB only. They play 10 games, five home and five away, against all the other members. They qualify for the CCG if they have one of the two best conference winning percentages. The remaining teams play a full round robin conference schedule.

Navy raises the flag in the Pacific Fleet by playing @Hawaii every year taking advantage of the hawaii exception for a thirteenth game, and assuring the Warriors six home games a year. They can add to that with games against two west coast FCS teams.

The academies get more OOC games now that they play each other in conference. Navy still gets its desired games in the state of Texas.

What I think will happen. PAC will take Texas Tech and Kansas, The ACC will take Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF, and the AAC will rebrand itself as the Heartland Conference and will merge with the Big XII leftovers, TCU, Baylor, Okla St, Kansas St, and Iowa St.

*** SMUstang ***

Houston*
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Colorado State*
BYU*

Cincinnati*
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

I like how this shakes out, but I am not confident it will happen. All additions were on the shortlist before.

(07-25-2021 07:30 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 11:53 AM)Artifice Wrote:  Kansas is going to bounce to the B1G...

I'm not so sure. Set aside the issue of how valuable KU athletics is, Kansas has some issues right now that besmirch the two things it does have - hoops and a decent academic rep thanks to AAU.

Hoops is under a big NCAA cloud right now. And no, the NCAA hasn't gone away just yet.

Maybe even more important is the recent scandal that resulted in the departures of Les Miles and Jeff Long. That involved allegations of sexual misconduct, which is a hot-wire issue for liberal activists on campus. I can imagine someone speaking up in a PAC or B1G meeting and saying that we don't want to touch Kansas right now because that would likely draw prominent criticism.

So IMO, Kansas has some baggage right now, which is the worst time to be having it.

The allegations about sexual misconduct as to Miles occurred during the time Miles was at LSU, not KU. However, they only became public after Long (the AD) brought Miles to KU.

Yes, believe me, as a resident of Louisiana, I'm well aware the core allegations came long before Miles came to Kansas, back in 2013 or so. It's been a big story here, as Miles still casts a shadow.

Nevertheless, it was at Kansas that Miles and Long lost their jobs. In the mind of the public, this is a Kansas issue as much or more than an LSU issue. Not fair, but IMO that is the perception. Kansas has been criticized for how they have handled this situation. So IMO Kansas is tied to it.

So today Texas and Oklahoma did notify the Big 12 that they will not renew the GOR.

Will the remaining 8 wait until all escape routes have been exhausted before extending their collective GOR? Once they have a new or extended GOR in place it should be easier to successfully add who they want.

(07-26-2021 09:19 AM)esayem Wrote:  Houston*
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Colorado State*
BYU*

Cincinnati*
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

I like how this shakes out, but I am not confident it will happen. All additions were on the shortlist before.

I like UCF over Colorado St. The Big 12 is going to be looking to establishing itself as clearly superior to the G5. UCF has been a strong program since they moved to the American in 2013. I’d take them and establish a presence in Florida rather than creating a bridge to BYU.