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What will happen to the Big 12?
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1
What will happen to the Big 12?
I know we're all speculating in various threads about the fallout with the Big 12, but it is in some respect a separate discussion.

Let's presume that Texas and Oklahoma are leaving for the SEC and that they would leave for another league if the SEC refused for some reason.

The Big 12 is down to 8...

Does the league survive at all? Can they expand? Are they picked apart by other leagues?

Are there political implications?
07-21-2021 06:13 PM
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Frank the Tank Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.
07-21-2021 06:26 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Offline
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If OU and TX departed, I’d eat you’d see Kansas court the B1G. I doubt any other P5 conference would want any of the remaining teams. WVU, Baylor, TTU, KSU, TCU, ISU, and Okie St would be in deep kaka.
07-21-2021 06:28 PM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 06:13 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I know we're all speculating in various threads about the fallout with the Big 12, but it is in some respect a separate discussion.

Let's presume that Texas and Oklahoma are leaving for the SEC and that they would leave for another league if the SEC refused for some reason.

The Big 12 is down to 8...

Does the league survive at all? Can they expand? Are they picked apart by other leagues?

Are there political implications?

For the Big 12 to be further picked apart by other leagues requires other leagues to have interest in Big 12 schools not named Oklahoma or Texas.
07-21-2021 06:29 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Two main options:

1) Go to 12, including 3+ ETZ teams and the AAC becomes more CTZ-centered.

2) Settle for two (Cincinnati and Memphis are best mutual fit) and minimal realignment happens among the G5.
07-21-2021 06:29 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
The Big 12 would survive. As I suggested in the other thread, the best strategic move would be for them to add four of the strongest AAC programs, in order to insure a huge gap between the new Big 12 and the AAC.

But we don't know for sure who they would invite. University presidents make these decisions and might have other considerations, like their biases, or the biases of their major donors, or their personal ties to any of the schools that might be considered as candidates.
07-21-2021 06:40 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Assuming this comes to pass, you'll see very large exit fees negotiated to leave early -- they will want to go after this year, but will offer to stay up to 4 years, which wont work for the little-8. No question we are talking somewhere north of $50m for each Texas and OU. The Big 12 will flush with cash from exit fees alone, perhaps as much as $120-150 million. They are also sitting on pretty significant number of NCAA basketball credits and lot of other distributions. Also the ESPN (and CBS) contracts run through the 2025 season, which are far more lucrative than anything the little-8 could hope to get elsewhere. This is also still a very potent Basketball league with KU, TCU, Baylor and the rest (all 8 are top 50-60 programs).

They will definitely stick together. They will also look for a couple replacements. Without Texas I think BYU will be one. They will then have to decide, with ESPN consultation whether to take one or three from among Colorado State, Houston, Cincy, UCF and possibly Memphis despite not getting a rose (academics may take a back seat in survival mode).

Note: South Florida has reduced the budget since the Big East money ran out; TCU makes SMU redundant; Rice and Tulane were only on the list for academics; Temple is too far away. Thus I eliminate these schools from serious consideration.

Whatever move they make, they will have cash for awhile, and their adds will weaken the American, the only semi-rival for the almost power conference. They probably remain at the table for CFP, much like the Big East 2004-2012. How long that middle status lasts who knows. But the money will take several years to run out, probably taking them through most of the decade.
07-21-2021 06:40 PM
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Even in the worst case scenario the Big 12 has obvious expansion options: BYU, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati.

It would still be competitive with the Pac-12 for payouts on TV money.
07-21-2021 06:44 PM
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danieldemer Offline
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What will happen to the Big 12?
I'm trying to wrap my head around the logic people are using that the Big 12 will fall apart without Oklahoma/Texas and that Baylor (who just won the national championship in basketball) and TCU would be left out of any expansion from the remaining P4 because of their religious affiliation.


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07-21-2021 06:46 PM
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solohawks Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If I were the Big 12, I would reach out to USC and see if there is still unrest in PAC land. I know Larry Scott is leaving but the PAC still is limited to MT/PT which just isn't TV friendly. If USC has any interest whatsoever in leaving the PAC I tell them to pick the 7 teams they want to be in a division with and build a Big 16.

Long shot but you gotta try.

If that doesn't work you have the usual suspects of BYU, AAC, and MWC schools to build from.

With 6 auto bids in a 12 team playoff the Big can still position themselves as the clear #5 team so that they still have that playoff certainty
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 06:49 PM by solohawks.)
07-21-2021 06:48 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.
07-21-2021 07:00 PM
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Big 12 remains by poaching AAC members. The bigger question is would it remain Power 5?
07-21-2021 07:01 PM
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UTEPDallas Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

Any school not in the SEC and Big Ten is making phone calls.

I don’t think Clemson and Florida State like Florida and South Carolina getting richer.
07-21-2021 07:09 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 06:48 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If I were the Big 12, I would reach out to USC and see if there is still unrest in PAC land. I know Larry Scott is leaving but the PAC still is limited to MT/PT which just isn't TV friendly. If USC has any interest whatsoever in leaving the PAC I tell them to pick the 7 teams they want to be in a division with and build a Big 16.

Long shot but you gotta try.

If that doesn't work you have the usual suspects of BYU, AAC, and MWC schools to build from.

With 6 auto bids in a 12 team playoff the Big can still position themselves as the clear #5 team so that they still have that playoff certainty

You guys are making the false assumption the B12 can somehow keep their contract value with BYU and Cincy (or whomever you choose) instead of OU and Texas in 2025 and also the false assumption that the Pac-12 wont see a 30% or more bump in revenues from the next contract, especially as they are finishing a very long one, which suggests a larger bump.

When you look at that picture come 2025 (just a few years away) the B12 looks way weaker than the Pac-12 or the ACC in terms of per school payout. My honest WAG is the B12 will wind up with perhaps a little over doubt the American, or about $15m per school, rather than a bump to $40m or so they'll need to stay in contact with the Pac-12 or ACC.

The question is will the ACC reach out to say KU for their Basketball and TCU for both football and Basketball? I think both of those are more likely come 2026 with Texas and OU gone than any P12 school coming to the B12.

Instead I see the B12 back filling as need with near power schools like Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF and BYU. Likely in a sort of ad hoc manner.
07-21-2021 07:12 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If I’m the 8 remaining Big 12 schools I’m going to be pushing hard for the expanded playoff proposal because that would at least keep the Big 12 in the national conversation as their champ would be in the national conversation.

Then again, the Power Conferences could easily dump that proposal for one that would lump the Big 12 into a situation where their access is little or no better than the AAC and MWC and they are left out most years.

I’m torn at whether 10 or 13 would be better for the Big 12. 10 means bigger slices of the revenue pie, but as some have suggested, the Big 12 needs to distance themselves from the G5 as much as they can which means they need to co-opt all the G5 schools that stand a chance to outshine them.

I don’t think being within $5M/school of the PAC 12 is realistic. Hopefully they can keep the gap to less than $10M.
07-21-2021 07:13 PM
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:09 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

Any school not in the SEC and Big Ten is making phone calls.

I don’t think Clemson and Florida State like Florida and South Carolina getting richer.

Are you sure about this? I can imaging Ohio State and Michigan are calling Birmingham at this moment.
07-21-2021 07:17 PM
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:12 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 06:48 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If I were the Big 12, I would reach out to USC and see if there is still unrest in PAC land. I know Larry Scott is leaving but the PAC still is limited to MT/PT which just isn't TV friendly. If USC has any interest whatsoever in leaving the PAC I tell them to pick the 7 teams they want to be in a division with and build a Big 16.

Long shot but you gotta try.

If that doesn't work you have the usual suspects of BYU, AAC, and MWC schools to build from.

With 6 auto bids in a 12 team playoff the Big can still position themselves as the clear #5 team so that they still have that playoff certainty

You guys are making the false assumption the B12 can somehow keep their contract value with BYU and Cincy (or whomever you choose) instead of OU and Texas in 2025 and also the false assumption that the Pac-12 wont see a 30% or more bump in revenues from the next contract, especially as they are finishing a very long one, which suggests a larger bump.

When you look at that picture come 2025 (just a few years away) the B12 looks way weaker than the Pac-12 or the ACC in terms of per school payout. My honest WAG is the B12 will wind up with perhaps a little over doubt the American, or about $15m per school, rather than a bump to $40m or so they'll need to stay in contact with the Pac-12 or ACC.

The question is will the ACC reach out to say KU for their Basketball and TCU for both football and Basketball? I think both of those are more likely come 2026 with Texas and OU gone than any P12 school coming to the B12.

Instead I see the B12 back filling as need with near power schools like Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF and BYU. Likely in a sort of ad hoc manner.


That's why if you're the Big 12 and Texas and OU leave you gotta try and get USC and friends. That's the only way to maintain and possibly grow the TV contract

If you go with the usual suspects you will be making more than the AAC but much less than the now P4
07-21-2021 07:18 PM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 06:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even in the worst case scenario the Big 12 has obvious expansion options: BYU, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati.

It would still be competitive with the Pac-12 for payouts on TV money.

Are you kidding me? Who are you paying for? The Pac 12 is the undisputed top conference in California, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah. The Big 12? Kansas and West Virginia. Texas? Would be a distant 2nd to the SEC. Oklahoma? Same (and Oklahoma is smaller than Texas and many of the Pac 12 states). Iowa? 2nd fiddle to the Big 12. There isn't a school that they can take that can win them any state. They can get into Florida (UCF and/or USF) or Ohio (Cincinnati) or Tennessee (Memphis) or expand their presence in Texas (Houston and/or SMU) but they'll still play 2nd fiddle.
07-21-2021 07:21 PM
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UTEPDallas Online
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:17 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:09 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

Any school not in the SEC and Big Ten is making phone calls.

I don’t think Clemson and Florida State like Florida and South Carolina getting richer.

Are you sure about this? I can imaging Ohio State and Michigan are calling Birmingham at this moment.

I don’t think so. Those two are not a fit culturally.

I still believe Texas and Oklahoma are using this to get more money from ESPN and FOX.
07-21-2021 07:21 PM
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schmolik Offline
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

They can call but if they aren't increasing the Big 10's bottom line it will be a short phone call.
07-21-2021 07:23 PM
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