RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
I expect the Big 12 will still exist in 6-7 years, just with a significant to massively different lineup. It'll basically be unrecognizable, much like the WAC looks nothing like it did 12 years ago, let alone the mid-90's. Or like the Big East-turned-AAC or the SoCon.
Not all members will leave at once, so the Big 12 will reactively backfill. That's exactly what the Big East did.
I expect something like this:
1) Texas and OU announce they're officially leaving.
2) Two schools get invited in. Let's say, BYU first and then Houston. Rationale: BYU needs a league, and Houston will view being in a league with Tech, TCU, Baylor, and several state flagships and "State U's" as more appealing than the AAC.
3) Kansas gets invited as the 15th B1G school; remember, divisions are no longer required for a CCG, and I think the B1G will take advantage of that. Also, KU basketball adds huge value to Big Ten Network.
4) Big 12 invites Cincinnati.
5) Pac-12 invites TCU and Texas Tech to get into Texas, trying the best it can to keep up with other power conferences.
6) Big 12 invites SMU and UCF.
7) Big 12 decides to return to 12 members and invites USF and, who knows, Colorado State.
What's left:
Holdovers WVU, Iowa State, K-State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.
Newcomers BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, SMU, UCF, USF, and Colorado State.
Yes, all those newcomers would rather be with remaining Big
New members BYU, Houston, SMU,
I just don't think the AAC will be able to get an upper hand over the Big 12. Even without Texas and OU, I think the Big 12 will remain a step ahead in terms of realignment moves.
EDIT: I'll add that I think the ACC will eventually be able to get Notre Dame to go all-in. ND is going to want the chance for that first round bye in the CFP, and both sides will make significantly more money by linking up. Short of that, there is nothing the ACC can do to even attempt to keep up with the SEC or Big Ten. No, I don't see the ACC inviting any current AAC schools (wouldn't they have already done so?) or WVU (presidents' complaints about academics, and it's just a tiny, shrinking state).
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