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It may be too soon to know whether or not the report about Boise State necessarily means that the AAC will be in a position to replace UConn or to expand.
It may be possible that the AAC's aspirations could get an unexpected boost this summer from an earlier than expected consensus on a 12-team CFP expansion format.
Pete Thamel has written an article suggesting that surprisingly rapid progress has been made by the CFP committee's four-member working group toward a recommendation for a 12-team CFP expansion, which - theoretically - could go into effect as early as 2023:
"Yahoo Sports spoke to more than a dozen stakeholders Monday on every side of the playoff decision – university officials, athletic directors, media executives and others around college sports. Amid those conversations,
a surprise emerged — officials on campuses, in conference offices and in the television world have expressed an openness toward a 12-team playoff as the most likely result.
While it’s unfair to say momentum has built toward a 12-team playoff before models have been presented to the commissioners or presidents, the 12-team model has emerged as the favored outcome over the eight-team playoff within the industry.
The two days of discussion by the management committee (July 17 & 18) are expected to yield a singular recommendation for the following week. That’s when the CFP board of managers, a group of 11 presidents and chancellors from the 10 FBS conferences and Notre Dame, will examine what’s put forward and likely determine the potential shape — although not the final details — of the playoff's future."
How would 12 teams work?
The basic thought is automatic bids for the five major conferences — which also juices up their league title games as play-in games — and one for the highest ranked Group of Five champion. "
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-footbal...ZBt94PJA2U
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As Thamel has pointed out, there's no assurance that a 12-team CFP expansion would necessarily be approved, and even if it were to be approved, it wouldn't go into effect before 2023, at the earliest.
However, the development of a strong consensus to adopt a 12-team CFP format could make it difficult for the opponents of CFP expansion to block a proposal that has widespread national support.
There are 15 votes on the CFP executive committee. The two PAC-12 representatives and the five G5 representatives would have strong reasons to favor a 12-team CFP expansion, and only one of the 8 ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC representatives would have to side with them in order for a motion to adopt a 12-team CFP format to pass.
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If there is any significant movement toward adoption of a 12-team CFP format during the summer meetings, some of the western schools that the AAC has shown interest in adding may wish to maximize their chances of sending their teams to the playoffs by competing for the AAC championship.
Even the upper echelon FBS independent, BYU, might find it advantageous to join the AAC, since the AAC champion has consistently been the most highly-ranked G5 conference in recent years, and has represented the G5 in four of the past six NY6 bowl series.
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AAC Commissioner, Mike Aresco's phone may not be ringing off the hook at this point,
but that might change sooner than anyone has had reason to expect if the surprisingly rapid development of a consensus for a specific CFP expansion format - as described by Thamel - continues to build in the coming weeks.