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Crayton's 2021 Simulation [NC: Texas>Miami]
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
Looks like I'll have to write a 12-team playoff model.
(06-09-2021 04:34 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  #1 Texas (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) (254-117)

We're Back!! #AllGasNoBrakes #HookEm

At this point the #1 Longhorns have already beaten the #2 (#19 Oklahoma, 28-23) and #3 (OK State, 59-17) teams in their conference back-to-back, preceded by a 50-10 whooping of conference-mate TCU. Texas is clicking and the road looks clear ahead. Even with 1 loss, they clock-in at 89% favorites to go to the Playoff.

Big 12 Championship Odds / Appearances (all rounded down)
72/97 Texas
15/48 Oklahoma
8/36 OK State
1/9 Baylor
1/7 Iowa St
0/0 anyone else
06-10-2021 09:23 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
The playoff picture still has undefeated Power teams guaranteed to make the playoff (with the exception of 13-0 Missouri making the playoff in only 98% of simulations).

After that, here are the categories:
Guarantees > 90%
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (42%)
98% (11-1) Notre Dame (24%)
97% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (25%)
91% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (4%)
Contenders > 50%
89% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (30%)
80% 1-loss at large Big Ten (42%)
80% 1-loss at large Big 12 (13%)
75% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (60%)
68% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (56%)
Need Help > 25%
46% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (26%)
39% 0-loss CHAMP MAC (38%)
31% 1-loss at large ACC (9%)
29% (11-1) BYU (26%)
Long Shots < 25%
14% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (37%)
13% 2-loss at large Big Ten (121%)
12% (10-2) Notre Dame (41%)
7% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (21%)
5% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (21%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (30%)
3% 1-loss at large SEC (11%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (68%)
1% 2-loss at large Big 12 (39%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (108%)
0% 2-loss at large SEC (175%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (5%)
0% 1-loss at large MWC (16%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (43%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (14%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (39%)

Basically, 1-loss Power teams have a good shot at the playoffs. After simming through the next 4 weeks, I'll break this down by teams. A 1-loss SEC Champ still seems low. Here is a more detailed breakdown:
84% (11-1)+W Georgia (22%)
77% (11-1)+W Alabama (32%)
63% (11-1)+W LSU (1%)
3% (11-1)+W Missouri (3%)
The Alabama numbers may be depressed by that head-to-head Miami loss we talked about earlier, but the Missouri numbers really drive the average down.
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2021 12:04 AM by Crayton.)
06-14-2021 12:03 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
Here are the numbers for the new 6+6 Playoff. /10,000 simulations
B=Bye,C=Champ in First Round, A=At Large
H=Home Game in First Round, X=Champ outside playoff
Code:
B:2675 C:542 A:3897 H:1675 X:33 Georgia
B:3558 C:1030 A:2498 H:1261 X:33 Alabama
B:186 C:36 A:1514 H:324 X:0 LSU
B:281 C:173 A:759 H:294 X:46 Missouri
B:178 C:332 A:18 H:40 X:137 Florida
B:106 C:348 A:21 H:43 X:276 Auburn
B:0 C:2 A:60 H:6 X:12 Ole Miss
B:0 C:4 A:7 H:4 X:8 South Carolina
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 Mississippi St

B:3077 C:1682 A:1491 H:1092 X:214 Clemson
B:1604 C:1313 A:1633 H:1287 X:688 North Carolina
B:672 C:252 A:2033 H:920 X:41 Wake Forest
B:43 C:55 A:59 H:19 X:23 Pittsburgh
B:0 C:4 A:30 H:6 X:0 Louisville
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:35 Virginia Tech
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1092 Florida St
B:1509 C:2309 A:1855 H:1503 X:2382 Miami (error?)

B:4229 C:96 A:5116 H:4613 X:0 Ohio St
B:1635 C:94 A:6004 H:4010 X:0 Wisconsin
B:1350 C:80 A:6067 H:4798 X:0 Michigan
B:1754 C:404 A:3015 H:1535 X:36 Iowa
B:41 C:25 A:527 H:156 X:7 Penn State
B:124 C:97 A:282 H:57 X:10 Minnesota
B:0 C:9 A:150 H:34 X:0 Indiana
B:0 C:3 A:4 H:2 X:4 Northwestern
B:0 C:0 A:3 H:3 X:0 Purdue
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 Michigan St
B:0 C:0 A:1 H:0 X:0 Illinois

B:6667 C:532 A:2329 H:2187 X:33 Texas
B:622 C:220 A:1887 H:851 X:26 OK State
B:530 C:653 A:174 H:123 X:332 Oklahoma
B:112 C:57 A:341 H:75 X:11 Baylor
B:118 C:38 A:243 H:79 X:11 Iowa St
B:0 C:9 A:24 H:0 X:5 TCU
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 West Virginia
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:7 Kansas

B:4432 C:1222 A:2357 H:2251 X:126 USC
B:959 C:1022 A:680 H:544 X:695 Oregon
B:307 C:295 A:73 H:87 X:109 Arizona St
B:105 C:255 A:10 H:34 X:461 Washington
B:0 C:0 A:125 H:46 X:0 Colorado
B:0 C:0 A:21 H:0 X:0 Utah
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5 Stanford
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 Arizona

B:0 C:0 A:7468 H:6155 X:0 Notre Dame
B:0 C:0 A:3831 H:2481 X:0 BYU

B:158 C:1206 A:0 H:107 X:2698 Memphis
B:26 C:371 A:0 H:4 X:3615 Cincinnati
B:0 C:28 A:0 H:0 X:1317 Tulane
B:0 C:7 A:0 H:0 X:278 Tulsa
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:224 SMU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:48 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:14 UCF
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 East Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 USF

B:147 C:2542 A:0 H:253 X:4539 Boise St
B:32 C:179 A:1000 H:173 X:200 Air Force
B:0 C:12 A:0 H:0 X:1052 San Diego St
B:5 C:47 A:0 H:0 X:771 Nevada
B:0 C:9 A:0 H:0 X:146 Colorado St
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:116 Wyoming
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:92 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:57 San Jose St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:30 UNLV
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:18 Fresno St

B:110 C:1697 A:0 H:45 X:4848 UAB
B:0 C:44 A:0 H:0 X:2558 Marshall
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:326 WKU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:306 La Tech
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:36 Rice
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:26 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:23 Charlotte
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:22 Southern Miss
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 UTEP
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1 UTSA

B:2648 C:2626 A:196 H:823 X:1675 Ohio
B:0 C:84 A:0 H:0 X:1482 Western Michigan
B:0 C:73 A:10 H:0 X:200 Buffalo
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:758 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:247 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:159 Ball St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:15 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:15 Northern Illinois
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 Bowling Green

B:0 C:26 A:0 H:0 X:5400 Louisiana
B:0 C:15 A:0 H:0 X:2679 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1531 App St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:133 Troy
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:101 Arkansas St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:64 La Monroe
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:48 Georgia St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 Texas St
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2021 12:05 AM by Crayton.)
06-14-2021 12:04 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
Here are weeks 8-11. Ctrl+F to search for specific teams. I'll be simming individual weeks from here on out.

Code:
WEEK 8
14-33 // #7 USC (6-0) @ #6 Notre Dame (5-1)
21-24 // #12 LSU (6-1) @ #29 Ole Miss (4-2)
17-21 // #16 Wake Forest (6-0) @ #68 Army (3-3)
35-45 // #20 OK State (5-1) @ #28 Iowa St (5-1)
19-17 // #5 Clemson (5-1) @ #34 Pittsburgh (5-1)
34-17 // #3 Ohio St (6-0) @ #35 Indiana (4-2)
14-16 // #36 Cincinnati (4-2) @ #72 Navy (3-3)
14-34 // #38 Colorado (4-2) @ #87 California (2-4)
29-28 // #55 West Virginia (3-3) @ #41 TCU (4-2)
21-37 // #43 Western Michigan (5-2) @ #54 Toledo (5-2)
24-42 // #46 Northwestern (4-2) @ #8 Michigan (6-0)
35-17 // #9 Wisconsin (5-1) @ #49 Purdue (3-3)
17-14 // #14 BYU (6-1) @ #57 Washington St (4-3)
13-14 // #60 Illinois (4-3) @ #24 Penn State (4-2)
36-14 // #39 South Carolina (5-2) @ #61 Texas A&M (2-5)
19-14 // #22 Oregon (5-1) @ #62 UCLA (3-4)
9-40 // #63 NC State (3-3) @ #13 Miami (5-1)
17-52 // #64 Maryland (3-3) @ #27 Minnesota (4-2)
17-41 // #65 San Diego St (4-2) @ #31 Air Force (6-1)
21-41 // #69 Boston College (3-3) @ #42 Louisville (4-2)
18-17 // #58 Tulane (3-3) @ #71 SMU (4-2)
20-17 // #56 Coastal Carolina (4-1) @ #73 App St (3-3)
26-17 // #37 Washington (4-2) @ #75 Arizona (3-3)
17-68 // #76 Tennessee (3-4) @ #2 Alabama (6-1)
28-31 // #77 Kansas St (2-4) @ #107 Texas Tech (2-5)
13-20 // #78 Syracuse (3-4) @ #52 Virginia Tech (3-3)
14-46 // #80 Liberty (5-2) @ #122 North Texas (1-5)
47-14 // #44 Utah (3-3) @ #89 Oregon St (2-4)
21-24 // #92 Georgia Tech (2-4) @ #66 Virginia (3-4)
31-34 // #93 Miami(OH) (3-4) @ #67 Ball St (4-3)
6-44 // #97 Temple (3-3) @ #113 USF (1-5)
26-23 // #30 Memphis (6-1) @ #98 UCF (1-5)
31-28 // #59 Nevada (4-2) @ #99 Fresno St (3-4)
37-17 // #95 San Jose St (3-4) @ #100 UNLV (3-3)
28-32 // #101 Northern Illinois (3-4) @ #112 Central Michigan (2-5)
33-30 // #32 Mississippi St (3-3) @ #103 Vanderbilt (2-5)
46-3 // #47 Louisiana (4-2) @ #104 Arkansas St (2-4)
80-7 // #19 Oklahoma (5-2) @ #105 Kansas (2-4)
31-28 // #110 South Alabama (3-3) @ #106 La Monroe (3-3)
28-31 // #108 Rice (2-4) @ #33 UAB (6-1)
38-21 // #83 Eastern Michigan (4-3) @ #109 Bowling Green (4-3)
27-34 // #111 FAU (2-4) @ #114 Charlotte (3-3)
26-24 // #74 Colorado St (4-2) @ #116 Utah St (1-5)
21-45 // #118 Kent St (1-6) @ #21 Ohio (7-0)
23-30 // #119 New Mexico (2-5) @ #70 Wyoming (4-2)
13-16 // #120 UTSA (2-5) @ #84 La Tech (4-2)
28-39 // #121 East Carolina (1-5) @ #88 Houston (3-3)
17-55 // #124 New Mexico St (2-5) @ #85 Hawaii (4-3)
17-27 // #125 Texas St (1-5) @ #81 Georgia St (3-3)
66-7 // #117 Middle Tennessee (2-4) @ #126 UConn (2-6)
49-17 // #40 Buffalo (6-1) @ #127 Akron (1-6)
17-32 // #128 UMass (0-6) @ #50 Florida St (3-3)
29-17 // #96 WKU (3-3) @ #130 FIU (0-6)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-8) @ #45 Arkansas (3-4)

WEEK 9
24-28 // #9 North Carolina (6-1) @ #4 Notre Dame (6-1)
32-31 // #56 Virginia (4-4) @ #11 BYU (7-1)
17-26 // #13 Iowa (6-1) @ #8 Wisconsin (6-1)
33-17 // #5 Georgia (6-1) @ #16 Florida (5-2)
17-33 // #16 Florida (5-2) @ #5 Georgia (6-1)
17-18 // #22 Penn State (5-2) @ #1 Ohio St (7-0)
24-42 // #23 Iowa St (6-1) @ #44 West Virginia (4-3)
21-38 // #25 Minnesota (5-2) @ #58 Northwestern (4-3)
10-31 // #28 Ole Miss (5-2) @ #19 Auburn (5-2)
31-28 // #3 Texas (7-0) @ #32 Baylor (6-1)
21-31 // #36 Washington (5-2) @ #55 Stanford (3-4)
36-24 // #67 UCLA (3-5) @ #38 Utah (4-3)
39-35 // #10 Miami (6-1) @ #39 Pittsburgh (5-2)
26-24 // #125 Texas St (1-6) @ #41 Louisiana (5-2)
20-42 // #48 Florida St (4-3) @ #6 Clemson (6-1)
37-14 // #46 Cincinnati (4-3) @ #49 Tulane (4-3)
21-40 // #53 Colorado (4-3) @ #18 Oregon (6-1)
13-14 // #54 Navy (4-3) @ #60 Tulsa (4-3)
21-32 // #62 Purdue (3-4) @ #75 Nebraska (3-5)
34-31 // #24 Boise St (5-2) @ #63 Colorado St (5-2)
13-16 // #64 Washington St (4-4) @ #31 Arizona St (5-2)
27-32 // #69 Georgia St (4-3) @ #116 Ga Southern (2-5)
43-17 // #37 Louisville (5-2) @ #70 NC State (3-4)
31-28 // #40 Indiana (4-3) @ #71 Maryland (3-4)
28-47 // #74 SMU (4-3) @ #85 Houston (4-3)
17-36 // #77 Arizona (3-4) @ #12 USC (6-1)
17-28 // #79 Hawaii (5-3) @ #120 Utah St (1-6)
23-30 // #80 Kentucky (2-5) @ #34 Mississippi St (4-3)
28-27 // #7 Michigan (7-0) @ #84 Michigan St (3-4)
19-16 // #81 Boston College (3-4) @ #86 Syracuse (3-5)
31-14 // #51 TCU (4-3) @ #88 Kansas St (2-5)
42-28 // #65 Wyoming (5-2) @ #89 San Jose St (4-4)
24-47 // #90 Duke (3-4) @ #21 Wake Forest (6-1)
21-32 // #93 Southern Miss (4-3) @ #114 Middle Tennessee (3-4)
28-35 // #94 Oregon St (2-5) @ #72 California (3-4)
31-28 // #42 Virginia Tech (4-3) @ #95 Georgia Tech (2-5)
24-53 // #96 Texas Tech (3-5) @ #17 Oklahoma (6-2)
20-21 // #98 Rutgers (2-5) @ #66 Illinois (4-4)
24-27 // #99 Charlotte (4-3) @ #92 WKU (4-3)
28-35 // #100 USF (2-5) @ #122 East Carolina (1-6)
48-10 // #109 Arkansas St (2-5) @ #101 South Alabama (4-3)
29-13 // #15 Missouri (7-0) @ #102 Vanderbilt (2-6)
3-61 // #103 UNLV (3-4) @ #52 Nevada (5-2)
21-52 // #105 Fresno St (3-5) @ #73 San Diego St (4-3)
17-20 // #106 UCF (1-6) @ #107 Temple (3-4)
7-56 // #110 La Monroe (3-4) @ #82 App St (3-4)
21-28 // #111 Kansas (2-5) @ #29 OK State (5-2)
21-34 // #113 North Texas (2-5) @ #112 Rice (2-5)
20-38 // #115 Bowling Green (4-4) @ #35 Buffalo (7-1)
24-17 // #68 La Tech (5-2) @ #123 Old Dominion (2-5)
31-34 // #127 UTEP (1-6) @ #117 FAU (2-5)
28-57 // #129 UMass (0-7) @ #87 Liberty (5-3)
21-24 // #130 FIU (0-7) @ #47 Marshall (6-1)

WEEK 10
21-24 // #10 USC (7-1) @ #24 Arizona St (6-2)
3-57 // #11 Missouri (8-0) @ #3 Georgia (7-1)
35-28 // #94 Miami(OH) (3-5) @ #13 Ohio (8-0)
7-22 // #18 Wake Forest (7-1) @ #12 North Carolina (6-2)
21-32 // #19 LSU (6-2) @ #5 Alabama (7-1)
17-27 // #25 Mississippi St (5-3) @ #58 Arkansas (4-4)
24-27 // #26 Penn State (5-3) @ #77 Maryland (3-5)
32-31 // #85 SMU (4-4) @ #29 Memphis (7-1)
17-13 // #7 Clemson (7-1) @ #30 Louisville (6-2)
23-16 // #22 Florida (5-3) @ #31 South Carolina (6-2)
28-59 // #34 Baylor (6-2) @ #46 TCU (5-3)
17-20 // #36 Indiana (5-3) @ #8 Michigan (8-0)
19-16 // #28 OK State (6-2) @ #37 West Virginia (5-3)
24-21 // #2 Texas (8-0) @ #40 Iowa St (6-2)
17-14 // #17 Iowa (6-2) @ #44 Northwestern (5-3)
39-31 // #14 Oregon (7-1) @ #47 Washington (5-3)
31-20 // #91 San Jose St (4-5) @ #48 Nevada (6-2)
28-37 // #51 Utah (4-4) @ #45 Stanford (4-4)
24-31 // #52 Army (4-3) @ #23 Air Force (7-1)
31-24 // #23 Air Force (7-1) @ #52 Army (4-3)
14-17 // #53 Tulsa (5-3) @ #43 Cincinnati (5-3)
17-37 // #56 Illinois (5-4) @ #35 Minnesota (5-3)
20-17 // #99 Oregon St (2-6) @ #61 Colorado (4-4)
13-16 // #64 San Diego St (5-3) @ #88 Hawaii (5-4)
10-22 // #66 Navy (4-4) @ #4 Notre Dame (7-1)
21-14 // #1 Ohio St (8-0) @ #67 Nebraska (4-5)
14-33 // #68 Colorado St (5-3) @ #59 Wyoming (6-2)
14-55 // #69 La Tech (6-2) @ #27 UAB (7-1)
52-17 // #38 Virginia Tech (5-3) @ #70 Boston College (4-4)
24-17 // #84 Michigan St (3-5) @ #72 Purdue (3-5)
14-57 // #74 Eastern Michigan (5-3) @ #49 Toledo (6-2)
14-32 // #76 NC State (3-5) @ #54 Florida St (4-4)
13-27 // #79 Georgia St (4-4) @ #63 Louisiana (5-3)
36-21 // #65 California (4-4) @ #80 Arizona (3-5)
10-7 // #15 Auburn (6-2) @ #81 Texas A&M (2-6)
13-16 // #82 Liberty (6-3) @ #32 Ole Miss (5-3)
21-14 // #78 Tennessee (3-5) @ #86 Kentucky (2-6)
50-14 // #41 Pittsburgh (5-3) @ #89 Duke (3-5)
17-18 // #90 Kansas St (2-6) @ #111 Kansas (2-6)
20-47 // #93 Temple (4-4) @ #117 East Carolina (2-6)
13-43 // #97 Georgia Tech (2-6) @ #9 Miami (7-1)
31-27 // #75 App St (4-4) @ #98 Arkansas St (3-5)
17-38 // #100 Rice (3-5) @ #104 Charlotte (4-4)
3-44 // #101 Middle Tennessee (4-4) @ #83 WKU (5-3)
28-21 // #6 Wisconsin (7-1) @ #103 Rutgers (2-6)
17-19 // #105 Central Michigan (3-5) @ #60 Western Michigan (5-3)
12-16 // #106 Northern Illinois (3-5) @ #122 Kent St (1-7)
14-26 // #107 South Alabama (4-4) @ #92 Troy (4-4)
60-21 // #21 Boise St (6-2) @ #108 Fresno St (3-6)
21-20 // #42 Coastal Carolina (6-1) @ #109 Ga Southern (3-5)
18-17 // #73 Houston (5-3) @ #112 USF (2-6)
43-20 // #50 Marshall (7-1) @ #116 FAU (3-5)
7-10 // #118 North Texas (2-6) @ #96 Southern Miss (4-4)
34-24 // #62 Tulane (4-4) @ #119 UCF (1-7)
40-24 // #110 UNLV (3-5) @ #120 New Mexico (2-6)
32-24 // #115 La Monroe (3-5) @ #123 Texas St (2-6)
21-28 // #124 Old Dominion (2-6) @ #130 FIU (0-8)
31-10 // #113 Utah St (2-6) @ #125 New Mexico St (2-6)
16-9 // #55 Ball St (5-3) @ #126 Akron (1-7)
33-3 // #121 UTSA (2-6) @ #127 UTEP (1-7)
24-17 // #0 FCS (0-10) @ #129 UMass (0-8)
24-34 // #0 FCS (0-10) @ #20 BYU (7-2)

WEEK 11
30-33 // #6 Michigan (9-0) @ #37 Penn State (5-4)
26-20 // #33 South Carolina (6-3) @ #16 Missouri (8-1)
31-28 // #34 TCU (6-3) @ #20 OK State (7-2)
28-64 // #22 Arizona St (7-2) @ #54 Washington (5-4)
0-58 // #28 Minnesota (6-3) @ #13 Iowa (7-2)
23-21 // #9 North Carolina (7-2) @ #32 Pittsburgh (6-3)
26-36 // #39 Mississippi St (5-4) @ #12 Auburn (7-2)
22-21 // #19 UAB (8-1) @ #44 Marshall (8-1)
7-17 // #45 Arkansas (5-4) @ #21 LSU (6-3)
34-30 // #5 Notre Dame (8-1) @ #46 Virginia (5-4)
24-21 // #10 Miami (8-1) @ #47 Florida St (5-4)
32-9 // #14 Oklahoma (7-2) @ #48 Baylor (6-3)
31-44 // #49 West Virginia (5-4) @ #104 Kansas St (2-7)
14-17 // #50 Northwestern (5-4) @ #8 Wisconsin (8-1)
7-35 // #51 Wyoming (7-2) @ #23 Boise St (7-2)
24-31 // #55 Ball St (6-3) @ #117 Northern Illinois (3-6)
7-10 // #56 Louisiana (6-3) @ #90 Troy (5-4)
10-17 // #57 Nevada (6-3) @ #76 San Diego St (5-4)
34-31 // #17 USC (7-2) @ #58 California (5-4)
28-40 // #59 Tulsa (5-4) @ #52 Tulane (5-4)
16-20 // #65 Houston (6-3) @ #102 Temple (4-5)
37-27 // #1 Georgia (8-1) @ #68 Tennessee (4-5)
35-16 // #63 Maryland (4-5) @ #69 Michigan St (4-5)
10-47 // #71 Colorado (4-5) @ #60 UCLA (4-5)
27-29 // #72 WKU (6-3) @ #108 Rice (3-6)
23-20 // #121 UCF (1-8) @ #73 SMU (5-4)
21-17 // #18 Air Force (8-1) @ #74 Colorado St (5-4)
28-35 // #77 Washington St (4-5) @ #11 Oregon (8-1)
21-24 // #78 Purdue (3-6) @ #3 Ohio St (9-0)
31-34 // #80 Boston College (4-5) @ #98 Georgia Tech (2-7)
21-46 // #84 NC State (3-6) @ #24 Wake Forest (7-2)
30-13 // #25 Ohio (8-1) @ #85 Eastern Michigan (5-4)
32-31 // #29 Buffalo (8-1) @ #86 Miami(OH) (4-5)
26-29 // #87 Texas A&M (2-7) @ #27 Ole Miss (6-3)
21-36 // #88 Syracuse (3-6) @ #31 Louisville (6-3)
49-14 // #66 Utah (4-5) @ #89 Arizona (3-6)
30-27 // #38 Stanford (5-4) @ #91 Oregon St (3-6)
28-30 // #93 Duke (3-6) @ #30 Virginia Tech (6-3)
10-28 // #95 Charlotte (5-4) @ #75 La Tech (6-3)
14-31 // #96 Kansas (3-6) @ #2 Texas (9-0)
23-14 // #41 Iowa St (6-3) @ #97 Texas Tech (3-6)
24-3 // #79 Hawaii (6-4) @ #99 UNLV (4-5)
31-14 // #94 Kentucky (2-7) @ #101 Vanderbilt (2-7)
32-31 // #100 Arkansas St (3-6) @ #103 La Monroe (4-5)
20-35 // #105 Rutgers (2-7) @ #43 Indiana (5-4)
28-31 // #106 East Carolina (3-6) @ #40 Memphis (7-2)
10-26 // #109 Utah St (3-6) @ #82 San Jose St (5-5)
14-13 // #114 Kent St (2-7) @ #110 Central Michigan (3-6)
60-10 // #42 Toledo (7-2) @ #111 Bowling Green (4-5)
30-20 // #92 Southern Miss (5-4) @ #112 UTSA (3-6)
10-49 // #115 South Alabama (4-5) @ #67 App St (5-4)
26-23 // #35 Cincinnati (6-3) @ #119 USF (2-7)
17-20 // #122 New Mexico (2-7) @ #113 Fresno St (3-7)
44-14 // #116 Ga Southern (3-6) @ #123 Texas St (2-7)
31-40 // #124 FIU (1-8) @ #107 Middle Tennessee (4-5)
27-24 // #118 FAU (3-6) @ #125 Old Dominion (2-7)
20-46 // #126 New Mexico St (2-7) @ #4 Alabama (8-1)
10-56 // #127 Akron (1-8) @ #53 Western Michigan (6-3)
21-41 // #128 UConn (2-7) @ #7 Clemson (8-1)
17-19 // #129 UTEP (1-8) @ #120 North Texas (2-7)
14-33 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #15 Florida (6-3)
7-56 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #62 Army (4-4)
28-32 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #130 UMass (0-9)

Only 10 Power teams with 1 or fewer losses remain (all P5 conferences have at least 1 team), and up to 8 can finish with 1 or fewer losses (ND, Miami, and OSU can finish with 1 loss while not winning a P5 Championship).

The tables have turned in the G5 with 5 teams ranked from the MW, CUSA, and MAC, and 0 from the AAC and SB.

Big 12
#1 Texas (10-0, 7-0 Big 12) (340-180)
#14 Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) (390-167)
#35 Iowa St (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (280-245)
#33 OK State (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (290-256)
#26 TCU (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (335-267)
#58 West Virginia (5-5, 3-4 Big 12) (281-254)
#50 Baylor (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) (222-282)
#101 Kansas (3-7, 2-5 Big 12) (222-328)
#86 Kansas St (3-7, 1-6 Big 12) (251-265)
#102 Texas Tech (3-7, 1-6 Big 12) (251-293)

Big Ten-East
#2 Ohio St (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) (309-209)
#10 Michigan (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) (320-223)
#28 Penn State (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten) (254-243)
#76 Michigan St (4-6, 3-4 Big Ten) (241-277)
#37 Indiana (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten) (274-261)
#54 Maryland (5-5, 2-5 Big Ten) (276-235)
#110 Rutgers (2-8, 0-7 Big Ten) (264-278)
Big Ten-West
#5 Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) (252-182)
#12 Iowa (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) (295-187)
#38 Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) (350-244)
#60 Illinois (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten) (226-229)
#53 Northwestern (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten) (259-227)
#67 Nebraska (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) (240-276)
#79 Purdue (3-7, 1-6 Big Ten) (237-260)

SEC-East
#3 Georgia (9-1, 7-1 SEC) (306-182)
#32 Missouri (8-2, 4-2 SEC) (266-225)
#24 Florida (7-3, 4-3 SEC) (347-221)
#29 South Carolina (7-3, 4-3 SEC) (308-200)
#73 Tennessee (4-6, 2-5 SEC) (260-343)
#85 Kentucky (3-7, 1-7 SEC) (239-257)
#111 Vanderbilt (2-8, 0-6 SEC) (228-284)
SEC-West
#6 Alabama (9-1, 6-0 SEC) (391-197)
#13 Auburn (8-2, 6-0 SEC) (338-197)
#23 Ole Miss (7-3, 4-2 SEC) (243-246)
#20 LSU (7-3, 4-3 SEC) (257-203)
#45 Mississippi St (5-5, 3-4 SEC) (268-251)
#51 Arkansas (5-5, 2-4 SEC) (247-247)
#98 Texas A&M (2-8, 0-7 SEC) (195-285)

ACC-Atlantic
#8 Clemson (9-1, 7-0 ACC) (372-191)
#19 Wake Forest (8-2, 6-0 ACC) (360-204)
#30 Louisville (7-3, 4-3 ACC) (349-200)
#52 Florida St (5-5, 3-4 ACC) (229-265)
#90 Boston College (4-6, 2-4 ACC) (238-291)
#91 NC State (3-7, 0-6 ACC) (206-299)
#92 Syracuse (3-7, 0-6 ACC) (255-280)
ACC-Coastal
#9 North Carolina (8-2, 6-1 ACC) (336-204)
#7 Miami (9-1, 5-1 ACC) (342-172)
#27 Virginia Tech (7-3, 5-1 ACC) (287-213)
#43 Pittsburgh (6-4, 3-3 ACC) (314-225)
#44 Virginia (5-5, 2-4 ACC) (239-275)
#96 Duke (3-7, 1-5 ACC) (257-328)
#87 Georgia Tech (3-7, 1-7 ACC) (228-307)

Pac-12 North
#11 Oregon (9-1, 7-0 Pac 12) (337-229)
#61 California (5-5, 4-3 Pac 12) (262-256)
#41 Washington (6-4, 4-3 Pac 12) (344-204)
#31 Stanford (6-4, 4-4 Pac 12) (286-254)
#89 Oregon St (3-7, 2-5 Pac 12) (254-296)
#77 Washington St (4-6, 2-5 Pac 12) (226-250)
Pac-12 South
#16 USC (8-2, 7-1 Pac 12) (320-224)
#34 Arizona St (7-3, 5-2 Pac 12) (301-284)
#46 UCLA (5-5, 3-4 Pac 12) (273-228)
#55 Utah (5-5, 3-4 Pac 12) (303-214)
#78 Colorado (4-6, 1-6 Pac 12) (241-293)
#88 Arizona (3-7, 1-6 Pac 12) (214-301)

Independents
#4 Notre Dame (9-1, 9-1 ) (319-200)
#22 BYU (8-2, 8-2 ) (279-187)
#63 Army (5-4, 5-4 ) (285-208)
#84 Liberty (6-4, 6-4 ) (284-282)
#126 UConn (2-8, 2-8 ) (193-317)
#122 New Mexico St (2-8, 2-8 ) (205-370)
#130 UMass (1-9, 1-9 ) (177-368)

CUSA-West
#15 UAB (9-1, 6-0 CUSA) (355-171)
#62 La Tech (7-3, 4-2 CUSA) (254-242)
#83 Southern Miss (6-4, 4-2 CUSA) (231-265)
#100 Rice (4-6, 3-3 CUSA) (246-292)
#121 UTSA (3-7, 2-4 CUSA) (232-246)
#129 UTEP (1-9, 1-5 CUSA) (181-267)
#116 North Texas (3-7, 1-5 CUSA) (214-245)
CUSA-East
#48 Marshall (8-2, 5-1 CUSA) (301-204)
#82 WKU (6-4, 5-1 CUSA) (293-219)
#99 Charlotte (5-5, 3-3 CUSA) (290-274)
#103 Middle Tennessee (5-5, 3-3 CUSA) (279-298)
#114 FAU (4-6, 3-3 CUSA) (193-352)
#125 Old Dominion (2-8, 1-5 CUSA) (197-324)
#128 FIU (1-9, 1-5 CUSA) (196-296)

MW-Mountain
#17 Boise St (8-2, 6-0 MWC) (408-183)
#18 Air Force (9-1, 5-1 MWC) (346-220)
#56 Wyoming (7-3, 4-2 MWC) (301-242)
#72 Colorado St (5-5, 3-3 MWC) (293-272)
#113 Utah St (3-7, 1-5 MWC) (222-337)
#123 New Mexico (2-8, 0-6 MWC) (233-315)
MW-West
#64 San Diego St (6-4, 4-2 MWC) (288-229)
#74 San Jose St (6-5, 4-3 MWC) (333-326)
#57 Nevada (6-4, 3-3 MWC) (354-221)
#69 Hawaii (7-4, 3-3 MWC) (297-220)
#106 UNLV (4-6, 2-4 MWC) (232-313)
#104 Fresno St (4-7, 2-5 MWC) (268-362)

MAC-East
#21 Ohio (9-1, 5-1 MAC) (367-188)
#25 Buffalo (9-1, 5-1 MAC) (351-217)
#95 Miami(OH) (4-6, 3-3 MAC) (257-310)
#117 Bowling Green (4-6, 2-4 MAC) (222-360)
#112 Kent St (3-7, 2-4 MAC) (192-279)
#127 Akron (1-9, 0-6 MAC) (165-368)
MAC-West
#40 Toledo (8-2, 5-1 MAC) (335-216)
#47 Western Michigan (7-3, 4-2 MAC) (285-222)
#105 Northern Illinois (4-6, 3-3 MAC) (236-297)
#70 Ball St (6-4, 3-3 MAC) (303-267)
#94 Eastern Michigan (5-5, 3-3 MAC) (284-273)
#118 Central Michigan (3-7, 1-5 MAC) (196-313)

American
#36 Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 AAC) (319-185)
#39 Memphis (8-2, 5-1 AAC) (316-220)
#42 Tulane (6-4, 5-1 AAC) (327-196)
#81 SMU (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (242-261)
#66 Tulsa (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (254-229)
#68 Navy (4-5, 3-3 AAC) (196-230)
#75 Houston (6-4, 3-4 AAC) (282-291)
#93 Temple (5-5, 2-4 AAC) (236-324)
#107 East Carolina (3-7, 2-4 AAC) (276-343)
#115 UCF (2-8, 2-5 AAC) (222-340)
#120 USF (2-8, 1-5 AAC) (242-281)

Sun Belt-East
#49 Coastal Carolina (7-2, 5-1 Sun Belt) (275-185)
#80 Troy (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) (263-227)
#59 App St (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) (338-234)
#71 Georgia St (5-5, 2-4 Sun Belt) (241-261)
#108 Ga Southern (4-6, 2-5 Sun Belt) (260-290)
Sun Belt-West
#65 Louisiana (6-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) (274-191)
#97 Arkansas St (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) (261-320)
#109 La Monroe (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt) (234-291)
#119 South Alabama (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt) (236-300)
#124 Texas St (2-8, 1-5 Sun Belt) (181-278)
06-15-2021 11:56 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #25
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
Crayton— having you ever gone back and compared your sims to what actually happens? I’m curious what percentage of games have the same outcomes as your sim.
06-16-2021 11:42 AM
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Phlipper33 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
I'm fairly confident A&M won't go 2-8 to start the season. That's baffling how your sim has them falling so much. Gotta be a QB thing with Mond gone I'm guessing.
06-16-2021 02:40 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-16-2021 02:40 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I'm fairly confident A&M won't go 2-8 to start the season. That's baffling how your sim has them falling so much. Gotta be a QB thing with Mond gone I'm guessing.

I thought the same. UCF as well; 2-8 is a disaster of a season.

An imprecise metric, but here are the ranks that have changed 25 or more spots from preseason. Naturally you'll find the lucky G5 and unlucky P5 teams occupying most of these; still, UCF and A&M (and UAB) stand out.

+72 UAB (9-1)
+43 Ohio (9-1)
+42 La Tech (7-3)
+37 Coastal Carolina (7-2)
+36 Colorado St (5-5)
+34 South Carolina (7-3)
+32 Nevada (6-4)
+26 Marshall (8-2)
+25 Louisville (7-3)
+25 Florida State (5-5)
-26 West Virginia (5-5)
-27 Utah (5-5)
-29 NC State (3-7)
-32 Boston College (4-6)
-36 Purdue (3-7)
-37 Central Michigan (3-7)
-38 Kansas St (3-7)
-40 Kentucky (3-7)
-88 Texas A&M (2-8)
-88 UCF (2-8)

4 of A&M's games (MSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss) have been decided by a FG or less; the Aggies have lost all 4. So a bit is their bad luck, but even 6-4 would be unacceptable for the fanbase given the preseason hopes of challenging Alabama for the division crown.
06-16-2021 03:18 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-16-2021 11:42 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Crayton— having you ever gone back and compared your sims to what actually happens? I’m curious what percentage of games have the same outcomes as your sim.
The only comparisons I've done have involved the Playoff/NY6, comparing those predictions across the regular season with other publishers'. Not many calculate the likelihood of teams making the playoff. I blew fivethirtyeight out of the water and performed just below Massey. I incorporated point data only 2 years ago (used just W/L before that) in the hopes of making the model better, but Massey stopped publishing with Washington Post that year.

I was ready to compare against a betting service last year and ESPN started including the chances in their FPI last year, but that data disappeared mid-season and few computers did well because of COVID. I have not yet explored preseason predictions to compare against this year; hopefully FPI data comes back; I'll likely spend less time on this in the Fall as I'm going back to school.

I could probably get a correct W/L % pretty easy from my data (technically I have data back to '08, but those files may now be incompatible). With so many lopsided games, I expect to score ~70%; hopefully higher. Congrove compares their predictions against the spread (they average 75% straight-up W/L and 53% against the spread), but it'd take a lot of work to skim Vegas data.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021 04:15 PM by Crayton.)
06-16-2021 03:38 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
Conference Races

Big 12
#1 Texas (10-0, 7-0 Big 12) (340-180)
#14 Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) (390-167)
#35 Iowa St (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (280-245)
#33 OK State (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (290-256)
#26 TCU (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (335-267)
Texas and Oklahoma are locked into a TV-happy rematch. Texas finishes against West Virginia and Kansas State, Oklahoma finishes against a more difficult: Iowa State and OK State.

Big Ten-East
#2 Ohio St (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) (309-209)
#10 Michigan (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) (320-223)
#28 Penn State (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten) (254-243)
The Big Game should determine it all, unless Michigan trips while visiting 5-5 Maryland. Ohio State plays Michigan State this week.

Big Ten-West
#5 Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) (252-182)
#12 Iowa (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) (295-187)
#38 Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) (350-244)
Wisconsin holds the tie-breaker over Iowa, and faces Nebraska and Minnesota. Iowa faces Illinois and Nebraska. Minnesota would win a 3-way tie-breaker.

SEC-East
#3 Georgia (9-1, 7-1 SEC) (306-182)
All sewn up, finish against an FCS opponent and 3-7 Georgia Tech.

SEC-West
#6 Alabama (9-1, 6-0 SEC) (391-197)
#13 Auburn (8-2, 6-0 SEC) (338-197)
#23 Ole Miss (7-3, 4-2 SEC) (243-246)
The Iron Bowl winner will advance. Alabama plays Arkansas next week and Auburn plays South Carolina.

ACC-Atlantic
#8 Clemson (9-1, 7-0 ACC) (372-191)
#19 Wake Forest (8-2, 6-0 ACC) (360-204)
This weeks game between these two is determinative. Clemson then finishes against South Carolina while Wake finishes against Boston College.

ACC-Coastal
#9 North Carolina (8-2, 6-1 ACC) (336-204)
#7 Miami (9-1, 5-1 ACC) (342-172)
#27 Virginia Tech (7-3, 5-1 ACC) (287-213)
An interesting one here. North Carolina plays their FCS opponent this week while one of Miami and Virginia Tech will eliminate the other. If Miami wins, they'd need to then beat Duke in their finale while UNC loses to NC State; if Virginia Tech beats Miami, they only need to defeat Virginia to make it to Charlotte. North Carolina wins the potential 3-way tie at 6-2.

Pac-12 North
#11 Oregon (9-1, 7-0 Pac 12) (337-229)
#41 Washington (6-4, 4-3 Pac 12) (344-204)
#61 California (5-5, 4-3 Pac 12) (262-256)
All sewn up. Oregon finishes against 5-5 Utah and 3-7 Oregon State.

Pac-12 South
#16 USC (8-2, 7-1 Pac 12) (320-224)
#34 Arizona St (7-3, 5-2 Pac 12) (301-284)
Arizona State won their earlier season matchup, 24-21. USC plays this week against rival 5-5 UCLA. If they lose and ASU defeats both 3-7 Oregon St and 3-7 Arizona, the Sun Devils will make it to Vegas.

CUSA-West
#15 UAB (9-1, 6-0 CUSA) (355-171)
#62 La Tech (7-3, 4-2 CUSA) (254-242)
#83 Southern Miss (6-4, 4-2 CUSA) (231-265)
UAB has defeated both La Tech and Southern Miss and has clinched the division.

CUSA-East
#48 Marshall (8-2, 5-1 CUSA) (301-204)
#82 WKU (6-4, 5-1 CUSA) (293-219)
#99 Charlotte (5-5, 3-3 CUSA) (290-274)
#103 Middle Tennessee (5-5, 3-3 CUSA) (279-298)
#114 FAU (4-6, 3-3 CUSA) (193-352)
Marshall and WKU play each other to close the regular season, that game will decide the division. Marshall plays 5-5 Charlotte this week while WKU plays 4-6 FAU.

MW-Mountain
#17 Boise St (8-2, 6-0 MWC) (408-183)
#18 Air Force (9-1, 5-1 MWC) (346-220)
#56 Wyoming (7-3, 4-2 MWC) (301-242)
These teams have all played and handed each other their only conference losses. Air Force would need to beat Nevada and UNLV AND have Boise lose to New Mexico and SDSU in order to displace the Broncos as the division representative.

MW-West
#64 San Diego St (6-4, 4-2 MWC) (288-229)
#74 San Jose St (6-5, 4-3 MWC) (333-326)
#57 Nevada (6-4, 3-3 MWC) (354-221)
#69 Hawaii (7-4, 3-3 MWC) (297-220)
#106 UNLV (4-6, 2-4 MWC) (232-313)
#104 Fresno St (4-7, 2-5 MWC) (268-362)
If I have time, I may pour into this. With no one guaranteed 5 wins, maybe 5 different teams have a chance (sorry Fresno). SDSU in the only team that controls their destiny. Assuming they lose to Boise (or to UNLV), no one else controls their own destiny.

MAC-East
#21 Ohio (9-1, 5-1 MAC) (367-188)
#25 Buffalo (9-1, 5-1 MAC) (351-217)
#95 Miami(OH) (4-6, 3-3 MAC) (257-310)
Miami>Ohio>Buffalo>Miami. Ohio most likely will represent the division, but Buffalo would win the hypothetical 3-way tie due to superior division performance. Ohio finishes against 8-2 Toledo and 4-6 Bowling Green. Buffalo finishes against 4-6 Northern Illinois and 6-4 Ball St.

MAC-West
#40 Toledo (8-2, 5-1 MAC) (335-216)
#47 Western Michigan (7-3, 4-2 MAC) (285-222)
#105 Northern Illinois (4-6, 3-3 MAC) (236-297)
#70 Ball St (6-4, 3-3 MAC) (303-267)
#94 Eastern Michigan (5-5, 3-3 MAC) (284-273)
#118 Central Michigan (3-7, 1-5 MAC) (196-313)
Toledo has clinched the division, almost. If they lost their next two games (they play 9-1 Ohio and 1-9 Akron), WMU could take the division by defeating NIU and EMU; OR if Ball State defeats CMU, and 9-1 Buffalo, WMU loses to both NIU and EMU and NIU loses to Buffalo and EMU loses to CMU (that may be every MAC game left) THEN Ball State would win a 2-way tie over Toledo based on their early-season 21-20 victory.

Sun Belt-East
#49 Coastal Carolina (7-2, 5-1 Sun Belt) (275-185)
#80 Troy (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) (263-227)
#59 App St (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) (338-234)
Coastal Carolina has already beaten both Troy and App St; they finish against 2-8 Texas State and 4-6 South Alabama. If somehow they lose both, this week's Troy-App State winner has a chance to represent the East. App State then finishes against rival Georgia Southern while Troy finishes against Georgia State.

Sun Belt-West
#65 Louisiana (6-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) (274-191)
#97 Arkansas St (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) (261-320)
Louisiana has already defeated Arkansas State and clinched the Sun Belt West.
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2021 10:09 AM by Crayton.)
06-18-2021 10:08 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
Excised this one to bring it more attention:

American
#36 Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 AAC) (319-185)
#39 Memphis (8-2, 5-1 AAC) (316-220)
#42 Tulane (6-4, 5-1 AAC) (327-196)
#81 SMU (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (242-261)
#66 Tulsa (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (254-229)
#68 Navy (4-5, 3-3 AAC) (196-230)
Memphis and Tulane play to end the season with the winner clinching one of the two spots. The second spot will most likely go to Cincinnati (will play SMU and ECU). The Bearcats have already defeated Tulane (play USF this week) but will not played Memphis (play Houston this week).

What happens if all 3 finish 6-2 OR even if Tulane is 7-1 while Memphis and Cincy tie at 6-2?
06-18-2021 10:08 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #31
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
So, if the leading teams were to win out, the playoff bracket would look something like this:

1. Texas* vs 9. UNC @ 7. Miami
8. Clemson* vs 17. Boise St* @ 4. Notre Dame

3. Georgia* vs 11. Oregon* @ 5. Wisconsin
2. Ohio St* vs 10. Michigan @ 6. Alabama
06-18-2021 10:43 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #32
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-18-2021 10:08 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Excised this one to bring it more attention:

American
#36 Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 AAC) (319-185)
#39 Memphis (8-2, 5-1 AAC) (316-220)
#42 Tulane (6-4, 5-1 AAC) (327-196)
#81 SMU (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (242-261)
#66 Tulsa (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (254-229)
#68 Navy (4-5, 3-3 AAC) (196-230)
Memphis and Tulane play to end the season with the winner clinching one of the two spots. The second spot will most likely go to Cincinnati (will play SMU and ECU). The Bearcats have already defeated Tulane (play USF this week) but will not played Memphis (play Houston this week).

What happens if all 3 finish 6-2 OR even if Tulane is 7-1 while Memphis and Cincy tie at 6-2?

This is why I hate divisionless—too many ties in the standings
06-18-2021 10:47 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-18-2021 10:08 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Excised this one to bring it more attention:

American
#36 Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 AAC) (319-185)
#39 Memphis (8-2, 5-1 AAC) (316-220)
#42 Tulane (6-4, 5-1 AAC) (327-196)
#81 SMU (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (242-261)
#66 Tulsa (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (254-229)
#68 Navy (4-5, 3-3 AAC) (196-230)
Memphis and Tulane play to end the season with the winner clinching one of the two spots. The second spot will most likely go to Cincinnati (will play SMU and ECU). The Bearcats have already defeated Tulane (play USF this week) but will not played Memphis (play Houston this week).

What happens if all 3 finish 6-2 OR even if Tulane is 7-1 while Memphis and Cincy tie at 6-2?

Based on last year's tiebreakers for the CCG it would be h2h, then CFP, then computer rankings. So my guess would be Cin vs Mem if all 3 finish tied, and Tul vs Cin as I doubt Cin would fall below Mem in the computer rankings. Also the refs made bad calls in our losses. 03-wink 04-cheers

(06-18-2021 10:47 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  This is why I hate divisionless—too many ties in the standings

I can understand that. The AAC had four teams with three conference losses last year although not all got to play a full schedule.
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2021 12:56 PM by Alanda.)
06-18-2021 12:20 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-18-2021 10:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So, if the leading teams were to win out, the playoff bracket would look something like this:

1. Texas* vs 9. UNC @ 7. Miami
8. Clemson* vs 17. Boise St* @ 4. Notre Dame

3. Georgia* vs 11. Oregon* @ 5. Wisconsin
2. Ohio St* vs 10. Michigan @ 6. Alabama

It looks like #15 UAB (with 1 fewer loss and tougher schedule remaining) has the inside track for the #12 spot. Also think the ACCCG is BYE or bust for the playoff and either Clemson or UNC is replaced by current #12 Iowa. Oregon may have a shot at a home game if they pass Wisconsin or Alabama. Michigan should stay Top 12 even with a loss to undefeated Ohio State.
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2021 12:29 PM by Crayton.)
06-18-2021 12:26 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
12-team playoff format. Slide 2 decimals to get %s. Nearly a 5% chance a "G5" champ gets a bye; pretty big for this time of year, much of that has got to be because of P5CG upsets. Average of 1.2 G5 Champs in the playoff + 25% chance Air Force makes it as an at large. 14% chance a P5 Champ misses; mostly from the Pac-12 but Auburn and Oklahoma each have a 3% chance of accomplishing that feat.

B=BYE, C=First-Round Champ, A=At Large
H=First-Round Home, X=non-Playoff Champ
Code:
B:6225 C:235 A:2861 H:759 X:0 Georgia
B:2334 C:152 A:2402 H:172 X:0 Alabama
B:369 C:433 A:11 H:65 X:252 Auburn

B:245 C:9 A:8693 H:6963 X:0 Miami
B:3063 C:779 A:2048 H:409 X:14 Clemson
B:3861 C:1518 A:242 H:868 X:22 North Carolina
B:182 C:298 A:0 H:54 X:0 Wake Forest
B:0 C:2 A:0 H:0 X:7 Virginia Tech

B:3738 C:3 A:6226 H:5711 X:0 Ohio St
B:3401 C:51 A:6208 H:5048 X:0 Wisconsin
B:1347 C:23 A:7080 H:3814 X:0 Michigan
B:1373 C:64 A:4867 H:1313 X:0 Iowa

B:5757 C:52 A:4145 H:3599 X:0 Texas
B:1943 C:1867 A:202 H:283 X:328 Oklahoma
B:4 C:21 A:2 H:0 X:0 OK State
B:0 C:10 A:0 H:0 X:18 Iowa St

B:3673 C:1590 A:1769 H:546 X:122 Oregon
B:2006 C:1768 A:279 H:466 X:403 USC
B:0 C:135 A:0 H:0 X:303 Arizona St

B:0 C:0 A:9948 H:9610 X:0 Notre Dame
B:0 C:0 A:29 H:0 X:0 BYU

B:0 C:62 A:0 H:0 X:5326 Cincinnati
B:0 C:24 A:0 H:0 X:2079 Memphis
B:0 C:10 A:0 H:0 X:2493 Tulane
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:6 SMU

B:52 C:2405 A:0 H:127 X:6226 Boise St
B:0 C:11 A:2629 H:114 X:0 Air Force
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1055 San Diego St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:118 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:112 San Jose St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:21 Nevada

B:345 C:6487 A:0 H:77 X:1181 UAB
B:0 C:29 A:0 H:0 X:1697 Marshall
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:261 WKU

B:82 C:2136 A:0 H:2 X:3253 Ohio
B:0 C:143 A:0 H:0 X:780 Buffalo
B:0 C:38 A:0 H:0 X:3548 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:20 Western Michigan

B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:5047 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4932 Louisiana
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:17 App St
06-22-2021 09:57 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-18-2021 12:26 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(06-18-2021 10:43 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So, if the leading teams were to win out, the playoff bracket would look something like this:

1. Texas* vs 9. UNC @ 7. Miami
8. Clemson* vs 17. Boise St* @ 4. Notre Dame

3. Georgia* vs 11. Oregon* @ 5. Wisconsin
2. Ohio St* vs 10. Michigan @ 6. Alabama

It looks like #15 UAB (with 1 fewer loss and tougher schedule remaining) has the inside track for the #12 spot. Also think the ACCCG is BYE or bust for the playoff and either Clemson or UNC is replaced by current #12 Iowa. Oregon may have a shot at a home game if they pass Wisconsin or Alabama. Michigan should stay Top 12 even with a loss to undefeated Ohio State.

Somewhat off topic, but if the season were to play out like this, with UAB getting a NY6 appearance, I’d imagine UAB-to-the-AAC talk would pick up.
06-22-2021 10:03 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
4-team playoff chances.
With 10 current 0- or 1-loss P5 teams and up to 8 finishing that way; choosing only 4 playoff teams will be difficult. Right now no 2-loss team has an edge over any 1-loss team; though these are relative not absolute comparisons.

Texas, Notre Dame, and the Big Ten Champ look like locks at this point. Who will be #4? Georgia is the leader, but after that it is a mess of 1-loss teams (Clemson, Alabama, Oregon, Miami, and non-Champ Ohio State).

Who do you think #4 should be? Georgia>Clemson, Miami>Alabama, and Ohio State>Oregon earlier this season.

Guarantees > 95%
100% (12-0)+W Texas (46%)
100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (28%)
100% (11-1)+W Ohio St (9%)
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (13%)
100% (11-1)+W Wisconsin (29%)
99% (11-1) Notre Dame (76%)
98% (11-1)+W Texas (11%)
Likely In >65%
90% (12-0)+L Texas (33%)
85% (11-1)+W Georgia (62%)
70% (11-1)+W Miami (2%)
68% (12-0)+L Ohio St (21%)
Need Help > 25%
53% (11-1)+W Clemson (27%)
52% (11-1)+W Alabama (23%)
41% (11-1)+W Oregon (31%)
30% (11-1) Ohio St (31%)
29% (11-1) Miami (74%)
29% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (4%)
Long Shots < 10%
7% (11-1)+L Michigan (19%)
7% (10-2)+W North Carolina (53%)
6% (10-2)+W Iowa (14%)
6% (10-2) Notre Dame (23%)
6% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (26%)
5% (11-1)+L Wisconsin (29%)
4% (10-2) Wisconsin (27%)
3% (10-2)+W USC (26%)
1% (10-2)+W Auburn (6%)
1% (10-2)+W Alabama (1%)
0% (11-1)+L Ohio St (7%)
0% (11-1)+L Texas (8%)
0% (10-2)+W Georgia (2%)
0% (10-2) Michigan (51%)
0% (10-2)+W Clemson (11%)
0% (10-2)+W Oregon (20%)
0% (11-1)+L Georgia (33%)
0% (11-1)+W UAB (74%)
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2021 03:10 PM by Crayton.)
06-22-2021 10:09 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-18-2021 12:20 PM)Alanda Wrote:  
(06-18-2021 10:08 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Excised this one to bring it more attention:

American
#36 Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 AAC) (319-185)
#39 Memphis (8-2, 5-1 AAC) (316-220)
#42 Tulane (6-4, 5-1 AAC) (327-196)
#81 SMU (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (242-261)
#66 Tulsa (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (254-229)
#68 Navy (4-5, 3-3 AAC) (196-230)
Memphis and Tulane play to end the season with the winner clinching one of the two spots. The second spot will most likely go to Cincinnati (will play SMU and ECU). The Bearcats have already defeated Tulane (play USF this week) but will not played Memphis (play Houston this week).

What happens if all 3 finish 6-2 OR even if Tulane is 7-1 while Memphis and Cincy tie at 6-2?

Based on last year's tiebreakers for the CCG it would be h2h, then CFP, then computer rankings. So my guess would be Cin vs Mem if all 3 finish tied, and Tul vs Cin as I doubt Cin would fall below Mem in the computer rankings. Also the refs made bad calls in our losses. 03-wink :cheers

Memphis is having a good season with only 2 losses; a 21-31 heartbreaker at home against Mississippi State and a 31-32 home upset by SMU. They haven't been boatracing anyone though; their only FBS wins by >1 score are 51-7 over UTSA and 38-7 over Navy, both nice wins.

Cincinnati has a ranking edge over Memphis primarily because that extra loss is against Notre Dame (considered a 'gimmie' for ND), though the game ended up 27-32. Cincy also has 4 FBS wins >1 score.
06-22-2021 03:23 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
Now iterating 1 week at a time. Week 12 features a single Top 25 upset; Nebraska over #5 Wisconsin. Nebraska also defeated Oklahoma earlier in the year and except for a 6-57 loss to Minnesota has played to within 1 score of every opponent.

The Computer Committee's Top 10 are scrubbed from the below standings. Pontificate as you'd like concerning who would or should (not always the same set) make the playoff.

Code:
27-24 // #67 Nebraska (4-6) @ #5 Wisconsin (9-1)
10-55 // #19 Wake Forest (8-2) @ #8 Clemson (9-1)
21-31 // #24 Florida (7-3) @ #32 Missouri (8-2)
17-49 // #27 Virginia Tech (7-3) @ #7 Miami (9-1)
29-17 // #13 Auburn (8-2) @ #29 South Carolina (7-3)
14-46 // #35 Iowa St (7-3) @ #14 Oklahoma (8-2)
20-43 // #38 Minnesota (6-4) @ #37 Indiana (6-4)
23-33 // #40 Toledo (8-2) @ #21 Ohio (9-1)
26-17 // #44 Virginia (5-5) @ #43 Pittsburgh (6-4)
16-26 // #46 UCLA (5-5) @ #16 USC (8-2)
13-42 // #50 Baylor (6-4) @ #86 Kansas St (3-7)
21-51 // #51 Arkansas (5-5) @ #6 Alabama (9-1)
20-23 // #52 Florida St (5-5) @ #90 Boston College (4-6)
30-27 // #10 Michigan (9-1) @ #54 Maryland (5-5)
60-17 // #11 Oregon (9-1) @ #55 Utah (5-5)
38-35 // #18 Air Force (9-1) @ #57 Nevada (6-4)
59-7 // #1 Texas (10-0) @ #58 West Virginia (5-5)
17-18 // #60 Illinois (5-5) @ #12 Iowa (8-2)
13-36 // #61 California (5-5) @ #31 Stanford (6-4)
16-13 // #93 Temple (5-5) @ #66 Tulsa (5-5)
24-31 // #72 Colorado St (5-5) @ #69 Hawaii (7-4)
29-14 // #39 Memphis (8-2) @ #75 Houston (6-4)
17-24 // #76 Michigan St (4-6) @ #2 Ohio St (10-0)
47-24 // #41 Washington (6-4) @ #78 Colorado (4-6)
20-3 // #53 Northwestern (5-5) @ #79 Purdue (3-7)
3-20 // #79 Purdue (3-7) @ #53 Northwestern (5-5)
32-24 // #59 App St (6-4) @ #80 Troy (6-4)
28-35 // #81 SMU (5-5) @ #36 Cincinnati (7-3)
23-13 // #114 FAU (4-6) @ #82 WKU (6-4)
3-45 // #83 Southern Miss (6-4) @ #62 La Tech (7-3)
61-21 // #65 Louisiana (6-4) @ #84 Liberty (6-4)
24-27 // #87 Georgia Tech (3-7) @ #4 Notre Dame (9-1)
24-41 // #88 Arizona (3-7) @ #77 Washington St (4-6)
24-17 // #34 Arizona St (7-3) @ #89 Oregon St (3-7)
20-21 // #92 Syracuse (3-7) @ #91 NC State (3-7)
46-28 // #47 Western Michigan (7-3) @ #94 Eastern Michigan (5-5)
34-31 // #30 Louisville (7-3) @ #96 Duke (3-7)
17-20 // #97 Arkansas St (4-6) @ #71 Georgia St (5-5)
44-14 // #48 Marshall (8-2) @ #99 Charlotte (5-5)
10-17 // #100 Rice (4-6) @ #129 UTEP (1-9)
24-37 // #101 Kansas (3-7) @ #26 TCU (7-3)
50-24 // #33 OK State (7-3) @ #102 Texas Tech (3-7)
17-33 // #105 Northern Illinois (4-6) @ #25 Buffalo (9-1)
62-24 // #64 San Diego St (6-4) @ #106 UNLV (4-6)
24-28 // #107 East Carolina (3-7) @ #68 Navy (4-5)
28-17 // #22 BYU (8-2) @ #108 Ga Southern (4-6)
14-59 // #109 La Monroe (4-6) @ #20 LSU (7-3)
14-15 // #110 Rutgers (2-8) @ #28 Penn State (6-4)
17-24 // #111 Vanderbilt (2-8) @ #23 Ole Miss (7-3)
19-17 // #56 Wyoming (7-3) @ #113 Utah St (3-7)
27-36 // #117 Bowling Green (4-6) @ #95 Miami(OH) (4-6)
14-30 // #118 Central Michigan (3-7) @ #70 Ball St (6-4)
17-24 // #119 South Alabama (4-6) @ #73 Tennessee (4-6)
24-27 // #120 USF (2-8) @ #42 Tulane (6-4)
34-9 // #15 UAB (9-1) @ #121 UTSA (3-7)
21-54 // #122 New Mexico St (2-8) @ #85 Kentucky (3-7)
20-22 // #123 New Mexico (2-8) @ #17 Boise St (8-2)
13-28 // #125 Old Dominion (2-8) @ #103 Middle Tennessee (5-5)
7-16 // #126 UConn (2-8) @ #115 UCF (2-8)
47-35 // #112 Kent St (3-7) @ #127 Akron (1-9)
37-14 // #116 North Texas (3-7) @ #128 FIU (1-9)
24-42 // #130 UMass (1-9) @ #63 Army (5-4)
17-35 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #3 Georgia (9-1)
21-67 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #98 Texas A&M (2-8)
21-45 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #45 Mississippi St (5-5)
17-38 // #0 FCS (0-12) @ #9 North Carolina (8-2)

SEC-East
#X Georgia (10-1, 7-1 SEC) (341-199)
#24 Missouri (9-2, 5-2 SEC) (297-246)
#38 Florida (7-4, 4-4 SEC) (368-252)
#43 South Carolina (7-4, 4-4 SEC) (325-229)
#73 Tennessee (5-6, 2-5 SEC) (284-360)
#87 Kentucky (4-7, 1-7 SEC) (293-278)
#117 Vanderbilt (2-9, 0-7 SEC) (245-308)
SEC-West
#X Alabama (10-1, 7-0 SEC) (442-218)
#16 Auburn (9-2, 7-0 SEC) (367-214)
#28 Ole Miss (8-3, 5-2 SEC) (267-263)
#26 LSU (8-3, 4-3 SEC) (316-217)
#53 Mississippi St (6-5, 3-4 SEC) (313-272)
#66 Arkansas (5-6, 2-5 SEC) (268-298)
#103 Texas A&M (3-8, 0-7 SEC) (262-306)

ACC-Atlantic
#X Clemson (10-1, 8-0 ACC) (427-201)
#29 Wake Forest (8-3, 6-1 ACC) (370-259)
#30 Louisville (8-3, 5-3 ACC) (383-231)
#84 Boston College (5-6, 3-4 ACC) (261-311)
#68 Florida St (5-6, 3-5 ACC) (249-288)
#85 NC State (4-7, 1-6 ACC) (227-319)
#98 Syracuse (3-8, 0-7 ACC) (275-301)
ACC-Coastal
#12 North Carolina (9-2, 6-1 ACC) (374-221)
#X Miami (10-1, 6-1 ACC) (391-189)
#37 Virginia Tech (7-4, 5-2 ACC) (304-262)
#51 Pittsburgh (6-5, 3-4 ACC) (331-251)
#39 Virginia (6-5, 3-4 ACC) (265-292)
#99 Duke (3-8, 1-6 ACC) (288-362)
#93 Georgia Tech (3-8, 1-7 ACC) (252-334)

Big Ten-East
#X Ohio St (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) (333-226)
#X Michigan (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) (350-250)
#31 Penn State (7-4, 4-4 Big Ten) (269-257)
#32 Indiana (7-4, 4-4 Big Ten) (317-281)
#77 Michigan St (4-7, 3-5 Big Ten) (258-301)
#55 Maryland (5-6, 2-6 Big Ten) (303-265)
#109 Rutgers (2-9, 0-8 Big Ten) (278-293)
Big Ten-West
#11 Iowa (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten) (313-204)
#10 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) (276-209)
#42 Northwestern (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) (279-230)
#44 Minnesota (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) (370-287)
#59 Illinois (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten) (243-247)
#49 Nebraska (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten) (267-300)
#79 Purdue (3-8, 1-7 Big Ten) (240-280)

Big 12
#X Texas (11-0, 8-0 Big 12) (399-187)
#14 Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1 Big 12) (436-181)
#23 OK State (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) (340-280)
#22 TCU (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) (372-291)
#36 Iowa St (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) (294-291)
#61 West Virginia (5-6, 3-5 Big 12) (288-313)
#54 Baylor (6-5, 3-5 Big 12) (235-324)
#97 Kansas (3-8, 2-6 Big 12) (246-365)
#74 Kansas St (4-7, 2-6 Big 12) (293-278)
#104 Texas Tech (3-8, 1-7 Big 12) (275-343)

Pac-12 South
#15 USC (9-2, 8-1 Pac 12) (346-240)
#25 Arizona St (8-3, 6-2 Pac 12) (325-301)
#50 UCLA (5-6, 3-5 Pac 12) (289-254)
#62 Utah (5-6, 3-5 Pac 12) (320-274)
#80 Colorado (4-7, 1-7 Pac 12) (265-340)
#91 Arizona (3-8, 1-7 Pac 12) (238-342)
Pac-12 North
#X Oregon (10-1, 8-0 Pac 12) (397-246)
#35 Washington (7-4, 5-3 Pac 12) (391-228)
#27 Stanford (7-4, 5-4 Pac 12) (322-267)
#65 California (5-6, 4-4 Pac 12) (275-292)
#71 Washington St (5-6, 3-5 Pac 12) (267-274)
#92 Oregon St (3-8, 2-6 Pac 12) (271-320)

Independents
#X Notre Dame (10-1, 10-1 ) (346-224)
#20 BYU (9-2, 9-2 ) (307-204)
#63 Army (6-4, 6-4 ) (327-232)
#89 Liberty (6-5, 6-5 ) (305-343)
#127 UConn (2-9, 2-9 ) (200-333)
#122 New Mexico St (2-9, 2-9 ) (226-424)
#130 UMass (1-10, 1-10 ) (201-410)

American
#33 Cincinnati (8-3, 6-1 AAC) (354-213)
#34 Memphis (9-2, 6-1 AAC) (345-234)
#41 Tulane (7-4, 6-1 AAC) (354-220)
#64 Navy (5-5, 4-3 AAC) (224-254)
#81 Temple (6-5, 3-4 AAC) (252-337)
#82 SMU (5-6, 3-4 AAC) (270-296)
#75 Tulsa (5-6, 3-4 AAC) (267-245)
#78 Houston (6-5, 3-5 AAC) (296-320)
#111 UCF (3-8, 2-5 AAC) (238-347)
#114 East Carolina (3-8, 2-5 AAC) (300-371)
#120 USF (2-9, 1-6 AAC) (266-308)

MW-Mountain
#19 Boise St (9-2, 7-0 MWC) (430-203)
#13 Air Force (10-1, 6-1 MWC) (384-255)
#48 Wyoming (8-3, 5-2 MWC) (320-259)
#76 Colorado St (5-6, 3-4 MWC) (317-303)
#115 Utah St (3-8, 1-6 MWC) (239-356)
#123 New Mexico (2-9, 0-7 MWC) (253-337)
MW-West
#58 San Diego St (7-4, 5-2 MWC) (350-253)
#60 Hawaii (8-4, 4-3 MWC) (328-244)
#72 San Jose St (6-5, 4-3 MWC) (333-326)
#70 Nevada (6-5, 3-4 MWC) (389-259)
#106 UNLV (4-7, 2-5 MWC) (256-375)
#95 Fresno St (4-7, 2-5 MWC) (268-362)

CUSA-West
#17 UAB (10-1, 7-0 CUSA) (389-180)
#56 La Tech (8-3, 5-2 CUSA) (299-245)
#88 Southern Miss (6-5, 4-3 CUSA) (234-310)
#107 Rice (4-7, 3-4 CUSA) (256-309)
#126 UTEP (2-9, 2-5 CUSA) (198-277)
#110 North Texas (4-7, 2-5 CUSA) (251-259)
#121 UTSA (3-8, 2-5 CUSA) (241-280)
CUSA-East
#40 Marshall (9-2, 6-1 CUSA) (345-218)
#90 WKU (6-5, 5-2 CUSA) (306-242)
#96 Middle Tennessee (6-5, 4-3 CUSA) (307-311)
#102 FAU (5-6, 4-3 CUSA) (216-365)
#101 Charlotte (5-6, 3-4 CUSA) (304-318)
#125 Old Dominion (2-9, 1-6 CUSA) (210-352)
#129 FIU (1-10, 1-6 CUSA) (210-333)

MAC-East
#18 Ohio (10-1, 6-1 MAC) (400-211)
#21 Buffalo (10-1, 6-1 MAC) (384-234)
#86 Miami(OH) (5-6, 4-3 MAC) (293-337)
#105 Kent St (4-7, 3-4 MAC) (239-314)
#116 Bowling Green (4-7, 2-5 MAC) (249-396)
#128 Akron (1-10, 0-7 MAC) (200-415)
MAC-West
#45 Western Michigan (8-3, 5-2 MAC) (331-250)
#47 Toledo (8-3, 5-2 MAC) (358-249)
#69 Ball St (7-4, 4-3 MAC) (333-281)
#108 Northern Illinois (4-7, 3-4 MAC) (253-330)
#94 Eastern Michigan (5-6, 3-4 MAC) (312-319)
#119 Central Michigan (3-8, 1-6 MAC) (210-343)

Sun Belt-West
#57 Louisiana (7-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) (335-212)
#100 Arkansas St (4-7, 3-4 Sun Belt) (278-340)
#113 La Monroe (4-7, 3-4 Sun Belt) (248-350)
#118 South Alabama (4-7, 3-4 Sun Belt) (253-324)
#124 Texas St (2-9, 1-6 Sun Belt) (194-304)
Sun Belt-East
#46 Coastal Carolina (8-2, 6-1 Sun Belt) (301-198)
#52 App St (7-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) (370-258)
#83 Troy (6-5, 4-3 Sun Belt) (287-259)
#67 Georgia St (6-5, 3-4 Sun Belt) (261-278)
#112 Ga Southern (4-7, 2-5 Sun Belt) (277-318)
06-23-2021 06:04 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
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Posts: 7,115
Joined: Sep 2016
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I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #40
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 12; heading into XGiving]
Texas and Ohio St are definitely your #1 and #2.

Beyond that, you’ve got 7 very good 1-loss teams.
06-23-2021 06:21 PM
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