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Crayton's 2021 Simulation [NC: Texas>Miami]
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 12; heading into XGiving]
Not sure how I feel about my ol' "CRAZY" playoff now that a 12-team playoff is on the table.

Basic setup is that a 16-team playoff replaces the CCGs and that a loss in the final regular season game will eliminate a team from earning a Wild Card (unless they lose to a Top 10 team) AND from winning any conference tie-breaker.

WEST REGION (Rose A)
4 Boise St @ 1 Texas
3 Air Force/North Carolina @ 2 Oregon
NORTH REGION (Rose B)
NR Cincinnati @ 1 OSU/UM winner
3 Alabama/Auburn @ 2 UAB
EAST REGION (Sugar A)
4 Ohio @ 1 Notre Dame
Big Ten #2 @ 2 Clemson
SOUTH REGION (Sugar B)
NR Coastal Carolina @ 1 Georgia
Big Ten #3 @ 2 Miami

Top 6 Conference Champs are eligible for a first-round home game, unless they also lose their final regular season game. With the general frequency of upsets, Air Force AND North Carolina are both expected to make the playoff with wins. Below are the conference-by-conference races for conference title and at large spots.

The main "benefit" of this format is that most rivalry games are win-or-go-home. No team can really afford to rest their starters, turning this into a quasi-defacto 32-team playoff.

SEC
Alabama-Auburn winner will make the playoff. Loser will miss. Georgia must beat Georgia Tech to make the playoff. Missouri needs to beat Arkansas and get help to make the playoff as an at large.

ACC
Clemson has clinched the ACC but needs to beat South Carolina to keep a home game. Miami needs to beat Duke and North Carolina must beat NC State, to make the playoff as at larges.

Big Ten
The Ohio State-Michigan winner will get a 1-seed, the loser may go on the road as a 3-seed. Iowa must beat Nebraska while Wisconsin must beat Minnesota, to make the playoff. Only the two highest ranked of Iowa, Wisconsin, and the OSU-UM loser can make the playoff.

Big 12
Texas must beat Kansas State to make the playoff OR clinch the Big 12 by having Oklahoma lose to OK State. Oklahoma must defeat OK State (and get a little help) to make the playoff. OK State and TCU (plays ISU) need to win and get help to make the playoff.

Pac-12
Oregon must beat Oregon State to make the playoff OR clinch the Pac-12 by having USC lose to BYU. USC must defeat BYU and get a little help; Arizona State must beat Arizona and get a lot of help, to make the playoff.

Independents
Notre Dame must defeat Stanford to make the playoff. BYU needs to defeat USC and get a fair bit of help to make the playoff as an at large.

American
Cincinnati must defeat East Carolina to make the playoff, otherwise the Memphis-Tulane winner will make the playoff. If both Cincinnati and Memphis win, the conference representative will be chosen by poll. Boo.

MW
Boise State must either defeat San Diego State or have Air Force lose to UNLV to clinch the Mountain West. Air Force will make the playoff with a win, regardless of if they win the conference.

CUSA
UAB will clinch the conference with a win over UTEP or a Marshall loss to WKU, otherwise Marshall represents the conference.

MAC
Ohio takes the conference with a win over Bowling Green, otherwise Buffalo takes the conference with a win over Ball State, otherwise Toledo takes the conference with a win over Akron, otherwise Western Michigan take the conference with a win over Northern Illinois, otherwise it defaults to Ohio. Buffalo also has an outside shot at an at-large spot.

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina takes the conference with a win over South Alabama, otherwise Louisiana takes the conference with a win over La Monroe, otherwise App State take the conference with a win over Georgia Southern, otherwise it defaults to Coastal Carolina.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2021 03:49 PM by Crayton.)
06-27-2021 03:18 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 12; heading into XGiving]
12-Team Playoff Race
Despite being #2 and undefeated, Ohio State is the 6th most likely team to earn a BYE, behind Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Texas, and Oregon.

Who is most likely to fit in at each spot?
Top 4 Champ: Georgia, Clemson, Texas, Oregon
Open Home: Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan
Open Away: Alabama, Wisconsin, UAB, Air Force

Bracket
SUGAR: Georgia vs. Wisconsin@Miami
ROSE: Oregon vs. Air Force@Ohio State
FIESTA: Texas vs. Alabama@Michigan
ORANGE: Clemson vs. UAB@Notre Dame

B=BYE,C=First Round Champ, A=At Large
H=First Round Home, X=Non Playoff Champ
Code:
B:4971 C:385 A:4129 H:1740 X:0 Georgia
B:2994 C:198 A:3191 H:277 X:0 Alabama
B:723 C:729 A:0 H:304 X:0 Auburn

B:496 C:28 A:9198 H:8052 X:0 Miami
B:4916 C:1235 A:1834 H:523 X:0 Clemson
B:1873 C:1442 A:54 H:710 X:10 North Carolina

B:2945 C:0 A:7055 H:6813 X:0 Ohio St
B:2348 C:128 A:7395 H:4628 X:0 Michigan
B:605 C:52 A:5333 H:2259 X:1 Wisconsin
B:2870 C:1017 A:237 H:226 X:34 Iowa

B:5722 C:9 A:4265 H:4104 X:0 Texas
B:2022 C:1877 A:106 H:403 X:370 Oklahoma

B:5577 C:436 A:2791 H:476 X:0 Oregon
B:1790 C:1713 A:75 H:543 X:484 USC

B:0 C:0 A:9977 H:8865 X:0 Notre Dame
B:121 C:6652 A:0 H:38 X:1108 UAB
B:0 C:0 A:4084 H:27 X:0 Air Force
B:25 C:3162 A:0 H:1 X:4018 Ohio
B:2 C:1088 A:0 H:11 X:7304 Boise St
B:0 C:36 A:0 H:0 X:1906 Marshall
B:0 C:38 A:0 H:0 X:5503 Cincinnati
B:0 C:31 A:0 H:0 X:1986 Memphis
B:0 C:19 A:0 H:0 X:125 Buffalo
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:2441 Tulane
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5827 Louisiana
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4173 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:2606 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1208 San Diego St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:398 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:177 WKU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:45 Western Michigan

8% chance a P5 Champ misses (mostly 3-loss USC or Oklahoma)
11% chance two G5 Champs make it (primarily UAB, Ohio, or Boise)
40% Air Force makes it as an at large.
1.5% chance a G5 Champ gets a bye (mostly UAB, who lost to Georgia by 6)
06-27-2021 07:24 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 12; heading into XGiving]
Finally the Playoff Picture for the current 4-team playoff. The 4 playoff spots belong to Texas (1 or fewer losses), Georgia, Notre Dame, and the OSU/UM winner. Alabama is the next most likely team in if they win out (unless Miami sneaks in with UNC losing to NC State).

Guarantees >95%
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (24%)
100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (29%)
100% (12-0)+W Texas (54%)
100% (11-1)+W Texas (2%)
99% (11-1) Notre Dame (67%)
98% (11-1)+W Georgia (49%)
98% (12-0)+L Texas (40%)
Likely In >50%
87% (11-1)+W Miami (5%)
82% (12-0)+L Ohio St (20%)
67% (11-1)+W Alabama (31%)
Need Help >25%
44% (11-1)+W Clemson (48%)
37% (11-1)+W Oregon (57%)
30% (11-1) Ohio St (49%)
25% (11-1) Miami (84%)
Long Shots <10%
8% (11-1)+L Michigan (24%)
8% (10-2)+W Wisconsin (6%)
4% (10-2)+W North Carolina (33%)
3% (10-2)+W Oklahoma (31%)
3% (10-2)+W Georgia (3%)
2% (10-2)+W Iowa (35%)
2% (11-1)+L Texas (2%)
1% (10-2) Notre Dame (32%)
1% (10-2)+W USC (28%)
1% (10-2) Wisconsin (47%)
1% (10-2)+W Auburn (14%)
0% (11-1)+L Miami (5%)
0% (10-2) Michigan (50%)
0% (11-1)+L Georgia (43%)
06-27-2021 07:52 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #44
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 12; heading into XGiving]
(06-27-2021 07:24 PM)Crayton Wrote:  12-Team Playoff Race
Despite being #2 and undefeated, Ohio State is the 6th most likely team to earn a BYE, behind Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Texas, and Oregon.

Who is most likely to fit in at each spot?
Top 4 Champ: Georgia, Clemson, Texas, Oregon
Open Home: Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan
Open Away: Alabama, Wisconsin, UAB, Air Force

Bracket
SUGAR: Georgia vs. Wisconsin@Miami
ROSE: Oregon vs. Air Force@Ohio State
FIESTA: Texas vs. Alabama@Michigan
ORANGE: Clemson vs. UAB@Notre Dame

B=BYE,C=First Round Champ, A=At Large
H=First Round Home, X=Non Playoff Champ
Code:
B:4971 C:385 A:4129 H:1740 X:0 Georgia
B:2994 C:198 A:3191 H:277 X:0 Alabama
B:723 C:729 A:0 H:304 X:0 Auburn

B:496 C:28 A:9198 H:8052 X:0 Miami
B:4916 C:1235 A:1834 H:523 X:0 Clemson
B:1873 C:1442 A:54 H:710 X:10 North Carolina

B:2945 C:0 A:7055 H:6813 X:0 Ohio St
B:2348 C:128 A:7395 H:4628 X:0 Michigan
B:605 C:52 A:5333 H:2259 X:1 Wisconsin
B:2870 C:1017 A:237 H:226 X:34 Iowa

B:5722 C:9 A:4265 H:4104 X:0 Texas
B:2022 C:1877 A:106 H:403 X:370 Oklahoma

B:5577 C:436 A:2791 H:476 X:0 Oregon
B:1790 C:1713 A:75 H:543 X:484 USC

B:0 C:0 A:9977 H:8865 X:0 Notre Dame
B:121 C:6652 A:0 H:38 X:1108 UAB
B:0 C:0 A:4084 H:27 X:0 Air Force
B:25 C:3162 A:0 H:1 X:4018 Ohio
B:2 C:1088 A:0 H:11 X:7304 Boise St
B:0 C:36 A:0 H:0 X:1906 Marshall
B:0 C:38 A:0 H:0 X:5503 Cincinnati
B:0 C:31 A:0 H:0 X:1986 Memphis
B:0 C:19 A:0 H:0 X:125 Buffalo
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:2441 Tulane
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5827 Louisiana
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4173 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:2606 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1208 San Diego St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:398 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:177 WKU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:45 Western Michigan

8% chance a P5 Champ misses (mostly 3-loss USC or Oklahoma)
11% chance two G5 Champs make it (primarily UAB, Ohio, or Boise)
40% Air Force makes it as an at large.
1.5% chance a G5 Champ gets a bye (mostly UAB, who lost to Georgia by 6)

Right—but that just means that Ohio St has a tougher opponent remaining. Alabama and Georgia can’t both get a bye—one cancels the other out. If Ohio St wins out, they are a 2 seed at minimum, maybe #1 overall.
06-27-2021 08:22 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 13; heading into CCGs]
Two Top 25 upsets to close the regular season. UNLV upsets Air Force's bid to make the NY6 as an at large (22-21). South Carolina gives Clemson their second loss (20-17).

Ohio State and Alabama beat Top 25 competition to play their way in to their conferences' Championship Games. The Championship Game slate will be as follows:

#1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. #10 Iowa (10-2)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs. #13 Oklahoma (10-2)
#3 Notre Dame (11-1) *at large
#4 Miami (11-1) *at large
#5 Georgia (11-1) vs. #6 Alabama (11-1)
#7 Oregon (11-1) vs. #11 USC (10-2)
#8 Michigan (10-2) *at large
#9 Wisconsin (10-2) *at large
#12 North Carolina (10-2) vs. #14 Clemson (10-2)

#15 UAB (11-1) vs. #78 Western Kentucky (7-5)
#16 Ohio (11-1) vs. #42 Toledo (9-3)
#17 Boise St (10-2) vs. #64 San Diego St (7-5)
#30 Memphis (10-2) vs. #33 Cincinnati (9-3)
#54 Louisiana (8-4) vs. #57 Coastal Carolina (9-3)

Are the Top 4 already locked into the playoff? Can/Should the SEC Champ make their way in? Does Oregon have a path?

Who has the advantage for taking that 6th Champion spot? If the favorites all win, could 2 G5 Champs jump all four 10-3 P5 losers and make the Top 12?

Last Week's Results:
Code:
44-35 // #2 Ohio St (11-0) @ #5 Michigan (10-1)
17-20 // #9 Clemson (10-1) @ #43 South Carolina (7-4)
22-21 // #106 UNLV (4-7) @ #13 Air Force (10-1)
50-21 // #8 Alabama (10-1) @ #16 Auburn (9-2)
21-31 // #20 BYU (9-2) @ #15 USC (9-2)
20-35 // #22 TCU (8-3) @ #36 Iowa St (7-4)
24-21 // #14 Oklahoma (9-2) @ #23 OK State (8-3)
14-21 // #24 Missouri (9-2) @ #66 Arkansas (5-6)
35-28 // #3 Notre Dame (10-1) @ #27 Stanford (7-4)
20-21 // #29 Wake Forest (8-3) @ #84 Boston College (5-6)
28-55 // #37 Virginia Tech (7-4) @ #39 Virginia (6-5)
30-28 // #90 WKU (6-5) @ #40 Marshall (9-2)
7-10 // #41 Tulane (7-4) @ #34 Memphis (9-2)
13-14 // #42 Northwestern (6-5) @ #59 Illinois (5-6)
42-21 // #10 Wisconsin (9-2) @ #44 Minnesota (6-5)
14-19 // #46 Coastal Carolina (8-2) @ #118 South Alabama (4-7)
36-24 // #11 Iowa (9-2) @ #49 Nebraska (5-6)
30-20 // #28 Ole Miss (8-3) @ #53 Mississippi St (6-5)
17-32 // #56 La Tech (8-3) @ #107 Rice (4-7)
63-17 // #19 Boise St (9-2) @ #58 San Diego St (7-4)
10-17 // #60 Hawaii (8-4) @ #48 Wyoming (8-3)
21-52 // #65 California (5-6) @ #50 UCLA (5-6)
17-32 // #68 Florida St (5-6) @ #38 Florida (7-4)
16-14 // #21 Buffalo (10-1) @ #69 Ball St (7-4)
35-38 // #70 Nevada (6-5) @ #76 Colorado St (5-6)
6-48 // #71 Washington St (5-6) @ #35 Washington (7-4)
17-31 // #74 Kansas St (4-7) @ #1 Texas (11-0)
20-17 // #31 Penn State (7-4) @ #77 Michigan St (4-7)
56-17 // #32 Indiana (7-4) @ #79 Purdue (3-8)
21-47 // #80 Colorado (4-7) @ #62 Utah (5-6)
43-28 // #64 Navy (5-5) @ #81 Temple (6-5)
32-31 // #75 Tulsa (5-6) @ #82 SMU (5-6)
14-37 // #83 Troy (6-5) @ #67 Georgia St (6-5)
29-28 // #12 North Carolina (9-2) @ #85 NC State (4-7)
24-27 // #86 Miami(OH) (5-6) @ #105 Kent St (4-7)
24-31 // #87 Kentucky (4-7) @ #30 Louisville (8-3)
34-28 // #129 FIU (1-10) @ #88 Southern Miss (6-5)
18-17 // #63 Army (6-4) @ #89 Liberty (6-5)
7-69 // #91 Arizona (3-8) @ #25 Arizona St (8-3)
9-20 // #92 Oregon St (3-8) @ #7 Oregon (10-1)
31-28 // #4 Georgia (10-1) @ #93 Georgia Tech (3-8)
28-31 // #94 Eastern Michigan (5-6) @ #119 Central Michigan (3-8)
13-17 // #95 Fresno St (4-7) @ #72 San Jose St (6-5)
10-50 // #96 Middle Tennessee (6-5) @ #102 FAU (5-6)
29-20 // #61 West Virginia (5-6) @ #97 Kansas (3-8)
39-20 // #51 Pittsburgh (6-5) @ #98 Syracuse (3-8)
62-14 // #6 Miami (10-1) @ #99 Duke (3-8)
24-17 // #124 Texas St (2-9) @ #100 Arkansas St (4-7)
21-22 // #103 Texas A&M (3-8) @ #26 LSU (8-3)
26-35 // #104 Texas Tech (3-8) @ #54 Baylor (6-5)
68-21 // #45 Western Michigan (8-3) @ #108 Northern Illinois (4-7)
31-28 // #55 Maryland (5-6) @ #109 Rutgers (2-9)
14-31 // #112 Ga Southern (4-7) @ #52 App St (7-4)
21-23 // #113 La Monroe (4-7) @ #57 Louisiana (7-4)
43-21 // #33 Cincinnati (8-3) @ #114 East Carolina (3-8)
57-7 // #18 Ohio (10-1) @ #116 Bowling Green (4-7)
20-21 // #117 Vanderbilt (2-9) @ #73 Tennessee (5-6)
17-30 // #120 USF (2-9) @ #111 UCF (3-8)
20-33 // #121 UTSA (3-8) @ #110 North Texas (4-7)
32-24 // #115 Utah St (3-8) @ #123 New Mexico (2-9)
27-7 // #101 Charlotte (5-6) @ #125 Old Dominion (2-9)
23-28 // #126 UTEP (2-9) @ #17 UAB (10-1)
31-24 // #78 Houston (6-5) @ #127 UConn (2-9)
17-42 // #128 Akron (1-10) @ #47 Toledo (8-3)
17-23 // #130 UMass (1-10) @ #122 New Mexico St (2-9)
06-29-2021 03:18 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #46
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated for Week 12; heading into XGiving]
Wow—the 12 team playoff would be a lot of fun in this simulated season.

Assuming the favorites all win their CCGs, The At-Large crop is pretty nice:

3 ND
4 Miami
8 Michigan
9 Wisconsin
A 2-loss SEC runner up
And the last spot probably comes down to either Iowa or USC, whoever looks better in their CCG loss.

——

under the 4 team model, if Ohio St and Texas get in with a CCG win. ND is probably safe. Miami gets passed over for the SEC Champ.
06-29-2021 03:29 PM
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Post: #47
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
4 Team Playoff:

1 or fewer losses:

Ohio State (Worse Case Loss to Iowa in Big Ten Championship Game, Good wins: Oregon, Penn State, at Michigan)
Texas (Worse Case Loss to Oklahoma in Big Ten Championship Game, Good wins: vs. Oklahoma in Dallas)
Notre Dame (Loss vs. Wisconsin in Chicago, Good wins: USC, North Carolina)
Miami (Loss at North Carolina, Good wins: vs. Alabama in Atlanta)

Georgia if they win (Loss: at Auburn, Good wins: vs Clemson in Charlotte, vs Florida in Jacksonville, vs. Alabama in Atlanta)
Alabama if they win (Loss: vs. Miami in Atlanta, Good wins: at Florida, LSU, at Auburn)
Oregon if they win (Loss: at Ohio State, Good wins: vs. USC in Las Vegas)

Potential 2 Loss Conference Champions:
Iowa (Losses: at Iowa State, at Wisconsin, Good wins: vs. Ohio State in Indianapolis)
Clemson (Losses: vs. Georgia in Charlotte, at South Carolina, Good wins: vs. North Carolina in Charlotte)
North Carolina (Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame, Good wins: Miami, vs. Clemson in Charlotte)
USC (Losses: at Notre Dame, at Arizona State, Good wins: vs. Oregon in Las Vegas)
Oklahoma (Losses: Nebraska, vs. Texas in Dallas, Good wins: vs. Texas in Arlington)

I can't see any two loss team having the resume to make a 4 team Playoff.

Obviously Ohio State and Texas would make it if they are undefeated. I like OSU's chances even if they lose. I wouldn't like Texas's chances as much if they lost if Oklahoma lost at home to Nebraska. I can't imagine the SEC Champ being left out. Miami's chances would be helped out a lot if Alabama won. If Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama won and are in, I'd say Miami is the 4th over Notre Dame as beating Alabama is huge. Notre Dame does have the common opponent (North Carolina) edge but they played UNC at home while Carolina had to go to Miami. It would be hard to leave out Oregon if they won the Pac-12 and their only loss was to an undefeated Ohio State. I might go with them over Miami and Notre Dame.
06-29-2021 05:05 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #48
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
Yeah— where do you rank Alabama, Miami, Oregon, and ND if they are are all 1 loss teams?

If you look at the losses

Oregon—Ohio St
Alabama—Miami
Miami—UNC
ND—Wisconsin

Oregon already lost to Ohio St—they also have the “best” loss. would the committee send them to a bowl to rematch?

Miami’s win over Alabama H2H is hard to ignore, but could you really leave the SEC Champ out? The South would burn if that occurred.

But ND beat the team that Miami lost to and they and Oregon both share wins over USC.
06-29-2021 05:26 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #49
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
Don't forget about UAB, whose lone loss was to #5 Georgia, by 6. "Best loss" is one metric, but if the other 11 games are against mediocre teams, it doesn't mean as much:

Top 25 Opponents
#3 Notre Dame (Wisconsin, UNC, USC)
#4 Miami (Alabama, UNC)
#5 Georgia (Alabama, Clemson, UAB, Auburn)
#6 Alabama (Georgia, Miami, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU)
#7 Oregon (Ohio State, USC)

A "Top 25" cutoff is somewhat gross (the rankings themselves provide a finer evaluation), but it does look like that SEC Champion should be able to hop Miami. Again, the Miami>Alabama thing could come in to play, but a statement win over the #5 team in the country, with a whopping five Top 25 opponents should favor Alabama>Miami.

Another metric is the 15-16 OOC games from the top of a division/conference
Top 4 in SEC-E: 16-0
Top 5 in Big 12: 14-1 (that Nebraska upset of Oklahoma)
Top 5 in Big Ten: 14-1 (ISU over Iowa)
Top 4 in SEC-W: 12-4 (Louisville over Ole Miss, Auburn lost to Penn State and Georgia St, and of course Miami over 'Bama)
Top 4 in ACC-C: 11-4 (3 to Notre Dame, 1 to West Virginia)*throw out the UNC>Wake game
Top 5 in Pac-12: 10-5 (OSU>UO, UM>UW, ND>Stanford&USC, BYU>ASU)
Top 4 in ACC-A: 10-5 (Clemson to UGA&USCe, Wake to Army, BC to Missouri&Temple)*

The only non-bowl team here is Nebraska. Keeping the Sooners out of this playoff conversation may be decent consolation for the Cornhuskers this year. A quick switch of that score nests Oklahoma between Georgia and Alabama at #6.

Notre Dame appears a lot here. Beyond the "Top 25", their schedule is pretty tough and that is yet to mention G5 division champs Cincinnati and Toledo. It looks like they may have earned that #3 ranking.
(This post was last modified: 06-29-2021 10:04 PM by Crayton.)
06-29-2021 09:47 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
6+6 PLAYOFF (crowning top ranked division winners)
ROSE: #1 Ohio State vs. #9 Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan
SUGAR: #2 Texas vs. #10 Iowa @ #6 Alabama
ORANGE: #5 Georgia vs. #14 Clemson @ #4 Miami
FIESTA: #7 Oregon vs. #15 UAB @ #3 Notre Dame

With liberties taken when seeding: (any team disadvantaged?)
ROSE: 1 Ohio State vs. 8 Oregon
SUGAR: 2 Texas vs. 9 Wisconsin @ 7 Alabama
FIESTA: 12 UAB @ 3 Notre Dame vs. 10 Clemson @ 6 Michigan
ORANGE: 5 Georgia vs. 11 Iowa @ 4 Miami
06-29-2021 11:22 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
I suppose its cheating to give the computer's exact predictions regarding the Final Four, so here it is in gross form:

>75% SEC Champ, OSU (win or lose), Texas (win or lose), Notre Dame (11-1)
<25% Miami (11-1), Oregon (12-1), and Oklahoma (11-2)

Surprised to see Oklahoma with a >0% chance. I'm guessing that's a blow-out victory whereby they pass Texas. I'm also curious which factors favor Oregon.
(This post was last modified: 06-29-2021 11:35 PM by Crayton.)
06-29-2021 11:35 PM
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Post: #52
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
(06-29-2021 11:22 PM)Crayton Wrote:  6+6 PLAYOFF (crowning top ranked division winners)
ROSE: #1 Ohio State vs. #9 Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan
SUGAR: #2 Texas vs. #10 Iowa @ #6 Alabama
ORANGE: #5 Georgia vs. #14 Clemson @ #4 Miami
FIESTA: #7 Oregon vs. #15 UAB @ #3 Notre Dame

With liberties taken when seeding: (any team disadvantaged?)
ROSE: 1 Ohio State vs. 8 Oregon
SUGAR: 2 Texas vs. 9 Wisconsin @ 7 Alabama
FIESTA: 12 UAB @ 3 Notre Dame vs. 10 Clemson @ 6 Michigan
ORANGE: 5 Georgia vs. 11 Iowa @ 4 Miami

When I see a playoff bracket like this, it makes me wonder if they shouldn’t shuffle the match ups a little.

The 4 top champs should always get a first round bye.

The next 4 highest ranked remaining should get to play at home in the opening round.

The last 4 teams should be placed in a manner to 1. Avoid rematches, and 2. Prevent conference mates from facing off in the first round.
06-30-2021 06:26 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #53
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
(06-30-2021 06:26 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-29-2021 11:22 PM)Crayton Wrote:  6+6 PLAYOFF (crowning top ranked division winners)
ROSE: #1 Ohio State vs. #9 Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan
SUGAR: #2 Texas vs. #10 Iowa @ #6 Alabama
ORANGE: #5 Georgia vs. #14 Clemson @ #4 Miami
FIESTA: #7 Oregon vs. #15 UAB @ #3 Notre Dame

With liberties taken when seeding: (any team disadvantaged?)
ROSE: 1 Ohio State vs. 8 Oregon
SUGAR: 2 Texas vs. 9 Wisconsin @ 7 Alabama
FIESTA: 12 UAB @ 3 Notre Dame vs. 10 Clemson @ 6 Michigan
ORANGE: 5 Georgia vs. 11 Iowa @ 4 Miami

When I see a playoff bracket like this, it makes me wonder if they shouldn’t shuffle the match ups a little.

The 4 top champs should always get a first round bye.

The next 4 highest ranked remaining should get to play at home in the opening round.

The last 4 teams should be placed in a manner to 1. Avoid rematches, and 2. Prevent conference mates from facing off in the first round.

When I followed this methodology for all seven years of the CFP to date I was able to avoid all intra-conference matchups until at least the semifinals and more often than not until the final game.
06-30-2021 11:34 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #54
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
Do you know when you’ll sim the CCGs and Army/Navy?
06-30-2021 03:15 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #55
RE: RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated heading into CCGs]
(06-30-2021 03:15 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Do you know when you’ll sim the CCGs and Army/Navy?
I've been releasing results on Tuesdays-ish. I may move it up now that there are so few games.
06-30-2021 05:03 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #56
Crayton's 2021 Simulation [CCGs Complete]
CCG Results
16-13 // #1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. #10 Iowa (10-2)
31-34 // #2 Texas (12-0) vs. #13 Oklahoma (10-2)
28-31 // #5 Georgia (11-1) vs. #6 Alabama (11-1)
21-37 // #7 Oregon (11-1) vs. #11 USC (10-2)
7-14 // #12 North Carolina (10-2) vs. #14 Clemson (10-2)
30-27 // #15 UAB (11-1) vs. #78 Western Kentucky (7-5)
27-24 // #16 Ohio (11-1) vs. #42 Toledo (9-3)
41-13 // #17 Boise St (10-2) vs. #64 San Diego St (7-5)
44-35 // #30 Memphis (10-2) vs. #33 Cincinnati (9-3)
62-3 // #53 Louisiana (8-4) vs. #57 Coastal Carolina (9-3)
17-14 // #59 Army (7-4) vs. #62 Navy (6-5)

LOTS of close games! Good football. Figures that somehow Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Clemson all win their conferences again. But half or less make the 4 team playoff.

Here are the final rankings:
#1 Ohio State (13-0)
#2 Texas (12-1)
#3 Notre Dame (11-1)
#4 Miami (11-1)
#5 Alabama (12-1)
#6 Oklahoma (11-2)
#7 Michigan (10-2)
#8 Georgia (11-2)
#9 USC (11-2)
#10 Clemson (11-2)
#11 Wisconsin (10-2)
#12 Oregon (11-2)
#13 Ohio (12-1)
#14 Iowa (10-3)
#15 UAB (12-1)
#16 Boise St (11-2)
#17 North Carolina (10-3)
#18 Buffalo (11-1)
#19 Auburn (9-3)
#20 Ole Miss (9-3)
#21 Arizona St (9-3)
#22 LSU (9-3)
#23 Penn State (8-4)
#24 Air Force (10-2)
#25 Memphis (11-2)

Line 'em up and knock 'em down. I'll simulate any playoff you all throw at me. I'll do the NY6.
06-30-2021 08:50 PM
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Alanda Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [CCGs Complete]
Coastal Carolina didn't care at all.
06-30-2021 08:57 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #58
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [CCGs Complete]
Wild— your 4 top champs are:

1 Ohio St
5 Alabama
6 Oklahoma
9 USC

your bracket is:

8 Georgia @ 7 Michigan / 1 Ohio St*
13 Ohio* @ 2 Texas/ 9 USC*

11 Wisconsin @ 3 Notre Dame/ 6 Oklahoma*
10 Clemson* @ 4 Miami / 5 Alabama*
(This post was last modified: 06-30-2021 09:19 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
06-30-2021 09:14 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [CCGs Complete]
I'd probably say 1. Ohio State, 2. Miami, 3. Alabama, 4. Notre Dame over 5. Texas. Had Oregon won, I would've had them #4.

Ohio State and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl
Alabama and Miami in the Cotton Bowl

Michigan vs. USC in the Rose Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
Clemson vs. Wisconsin in the Peach Bowl
Ohio vs. Texas in the Fiesta Bowl
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2021 04:33 PM by schmolik.)
06-30-2021 09:28 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [CCGs Complete]
(06-30-2021 09:28 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'd probably say 1. Ohio State, 2. Miami, 3. Alabama, 4. Notre Dame over 5. Texas. Had Oregon won, I would've had them #4.

Ohio State and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl
Alabama and Miami in the Cotton Bowl

Michigan vs. USC in the Rose Bowl
Texas vs. Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
Clemson vs. Wisconsin in the Peach Bowl
Ohio vs. Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma gets that Sugar spot as Big 12 Champ, pushing Texas into the Wisconsin or Oregon spot.

Simulated NY6:
COTTON: #1 Ohio State vs. #4 Miami
ORANGE: #2 Texas vs. #3 Notre Dame
SUGAR: #5 Alabama vs. #6 Oklahoma
ROSE: #7 Michigan vs. #9 USC
FIESTA: #8 Georgia vs. #11 Wisconsin
PEACH: #10 Clemson vs. #13 Ohio
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2021 03:32 PM by Crayton.)
07-01-2021 03:30 PM
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