(07-04-2021 06:47 AM)Crayton Wrote: (07-02-2021 06:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: Can you imagine the outrage in Tuscaloosa if SEC Champ Alabama was left out?
There would be outcry across the South for playoff expansion
Looked a little deeper into the "why" of them being left out. Before the CCGs, a 12-1 Alabama was given a 76% chance of making the playoff while a 11-1 Miami was given only a 14% chance.
Without going into the actual machinations, the reason for this is that Alabama and Miami were only compared to each other. If Texas had lost by a bit more than 3, they may have fallen to that same level; if Alabama would have won by a bit more than 3, they may have surpassed Notre Dame.
In a 3-way comparison, the Champions of the SEC would be first choice, Miami likely last (in some scenarios behind even Oklahoma). But because the Big 12 and SEC games were not soul-stomping affairs, Texas stayed ranked high due to the Big 12's superior Strength and the committee simply compared Alabama to Miami and could not overlook the season-opener.
Not saying it is correct or as-it-should-be, just how the computer committee works. Someone earlier in this thread mentioned the fact that ND (win) and UM (lose) both played UNC. Texas (win by 18) and Alabama (win by 30) both played Arkansas. Common opponents is not something I've included. I don't know exactly where or how it might fit, but something to consider.
(06-30-2021 08:57 PM)Alanda Wrote: (06-30-2021 08:50 PM)Crayton Wrote: CCG Results
31-34 // #2 Texas (12-0) vs. #13 Oklahoma (10-2)
28-31 // #5 Georgia (11-1) vs. #6 Alabama (11-1)
62-3 // #53 Louisiana (8-4) vs. #57 Coastal Carolina (9-3)
Coastal Carolina didn't care at all.
Had Coastal defeated Louisiana 62-3 (albeit a 118 point swing), it would have been enough for the committee to consider Texas's strength of record on par with Alabama's. Alabama (as a conference champion) gets the 3 seed, Texas 4, Miami falls to 5th.
Big 12's "superior strength"? Oklahoma lost AT HOME to a sub .500 Nebraska. Here are the Big 12 records going into the last game:
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Big 12
#X Texas (11-0, 8-0 Big 12) (399-187)
#14 Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1 Big 12) (436-181)
#23 OK State (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) (340-280)
#22 TCU (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) (372-291)
#36 Iowa St (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) (294-291)
#61 West Virginia (5-6, 3-5 Big 12) (288-313)
#54 Baylor (6-5, 3-5 Big 12) (235-324)
#97 Kansas (3-8, 2-6 Big 12) (246-365)
#74 Kansas St (4-7, 2-6 Big 12) (293-278)
#104 Texas Tech (3-8, 1-7 Big 12) (275-343)
>
Three teams in the conference finished below .500 overall (West Virginia won to finish .500). Oklahoma State and TCU lost in the last week so only Oklahoma and Texas finished with fewer than four losses.
There is no reason Texas should be in the top four let alone #2 after blowing the Big 12 championship to a team that can't even beat Nebraska on its home field. Who did they beat other than Oklahoma? Arkansas? So did Alabama! Maybe Texas doesn't get left out but Alabama isn't going to. The only team to lose its conference championship game and still make the CFP was Notre Dame last year and they lost to a one loss Clemson team (and the one loss was to Notre Dame). I highly doubt you can lose to a two loss team and still make it. There would be a huge uproar if Miami got left out in favor of Alabama. Maybe Notre Dame gets left out and people will speculate the lack of a "13th data point" hurt them. The fact that USC won the Pac 12 helped their case.
Also if Alabama gets left out, the real reason they got left out was they lost to Miami, a non conference game. The committee's message. We're punishing you if you lose these games just like they punished Ohio State when they lost to Oklahoma in 2017. So why play them? Just play cupcakes in non conference play.
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Crayton's 2021 Simulation [NC: Texas>Miami]
