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Will there be a football season?
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cr11owl Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-28-2020 03:20 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 03:09 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 02:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Unless we come up with a viable cure and/or vaccine before then, it's going to be tough.
So we are going to stay isolated for another 18 months? Please back this decision up with some data. By the time we have a vaccine people will have “socially distanced” for 2 years if you follow that plan. That’s like wasting away something over 10% of your expected remaining life if you’re over 60 because you’re afraid of something with a much lower likelihood of death. If you’re under 60 it’s still wasting significant time when the virus poses almost 0 risk to you.

Data that "it's going to be tough"? What would constitute data for such an assertion? If anything it's an opinion.

Well if you’re saying in your opinion it will be tough to do anything until we have a viable cure/vaccine you must have something to back that up? Since that’s not going to happen for a minimum of a year (and most likely longer) I’d say it must be a compelling reason to stay isolated. Looking at what we know it’s hard to make a case for that in my opinion which is why I want to know what you’re basing it on.
04-28-2020 03:47 PM
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Ourland Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Will there be a football season?
There's no reason why these athletes can't be tested for COVID19 the night before a game. As for the fans, attend at your own risk.
04-28-2020 04:15 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-28-2020 04:15 PM)Ourland Wrote:  There's no reason why these athletes can't be tested for COVID19 the night before a game. As for the fans, attend at your own risk.

How about the night before each practice?
04-28-2020 04:40 PM
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Ourland Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-28-2020 04:40 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:15 PM)Ourland Wrote:  There's no reason why these athletes can't be tested for COVID19 the night before a game. As for the fans, attend at your own risk.

How about the night before each practice?

Test them every week if you have to. Life needs to go on. Kids need to be back on campus. COVID19 isn't "novel" anymore, and college students get over it easily. My bet is that the season and the school year go on as previously planned. Things go back to normal within the next three months.
04-28-2020 06:06 PM
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illiniowl Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-28-2020 03:47 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 03:20 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 03:09 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 02:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Unless we come up with a viable cure and/or vaccine before then, it's going to be tough.
So we are going to stay isolated for another 18 months? Please back this decision up with some data. By the time we have a vaccine people will have “socially distanced” for 2 years if you follow that plan. That’s like wasting away something over 10% of your expected remaining life if you’re over 60 because you’re afraid of something with a much lower likelihood of death. If you’re under 60 it’s still wasting significant time when the virus poses almost 0 risk to you.

Data that "it's going to be tough"? What would constitute data for such an assertion? If anything it's an opinion.

Well if you’re saying in your opinion it will be tough to do anything until we have a viable cure/vaccine you must have something to back that up? Since that’s not going to happen for a minimum of a year (and most likely longer) I’d say it must be a compelling reason to stay isolated. Looking at what we know it’s hard to make a case for that in my opinion which is why I want to know what you’re basing it on.
What should rationally happen as a public policy matter is not necessarily what will happen (which is what the OP asked for predictions of).

My views on the data and what rational public policymaking should look like given that data are pretty similar to yours, I think, but politicians and university presidents (who are all highly political creatures, and outright political appointees at state schools) are going to be making these calls. There are going to be loud voices with all sorts of different agendas urging restraint (as well as opening). And after they figure out which way the wind is blowing, they'll be able to get some expert analysis to back up whichever decisions they make.

If you live in Texas the prevailing attitudes may be different but whenever I give in to morbid curiosity and open up Nextdoor here in deep blue territory, it seems like for at least 80% of commenters, COVID=Ebola and no shutdown measure could ever go too far or too long.

There are definitely people in academia who see this as an opportunity to kill college sports. Helicopter parents aren't wild about letting their kids leave home even in normal times and now they have an ostensibly scientific cover for their neuroses. There are people who think maximum chaos and disruption will help bring about their preferred election result. Etc.
04-28-2020 06:38 PM
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owlcarlos Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Will there be a football season?
The incidence of Corona will continue to decrease in May and by the end of June will be nonexistent. A vaccine will be available in September, currently worked on by Oxford University. The incidence of Corona is 10-15 times what is being reported- by the evidence of antibody testing in the public. This means that most of the population is showing no symptoms to this virus. It is much more widespread than reported solely because of the lack of symptoms in the predominant majority of the population. In other words, it is much more contagious, but much less serious than is reported. College football will occur, with ongoing vaccination to this virus. Caution will still have to be given to the elderly though, because it seems to affect the elderly with chronic diseases much more than the common population. The absolute worse scenario would be a beginning of college football in January 2021, but college football will occur.
04-28-2020 07:32 PM
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cr11owl Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-28-2020 06:38 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 03:47 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 03:20 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 03:09 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 02:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Unless we come up with a viable cure and/or vaccine before then, it's going to be tough.
So we are going to stay isolated for another 18 months? Please back this decision up with some data. By the time we have a vaccine people will have “socially distanced” for 2 years if you follow that plan. That’s like wasting away something over 10% of your expected remaining life if you’re over 60 because you’re afraid of something with a much lower likelihood of death. If you’re under 60 it’s still wasting significant time when the virus poses almost 0 risk to you.

Data that "it's going to be tough"? What would constitute data for such an assertion? If anything it's an opinion.

Well if you’re saying in your opinion it will be tough to do anything until we have a viable cure/vaccine you must have something to back that up? Since that’s not going to happen for a minimum of a year (and most likely longer) I’d say it must be a compelling reason to stay isolated. Looking at what we know it’s hard to make a case for that in my opinion which is why I want to know what you’re basing it on.
What should rationally happen as a public policy matter is not necessarily what will happen (which is what the OP asked for predictions of).

My views on the data and what rational public policymaking should look like given that data are pretty similar to yours, I think, but politicians and university presidents (who are all highly political creatures, and outright political appointees at state schools) are going to be making these calls. There are going to be loud voices with all sorts of different agendas urging restraint (as well as opening). And after they figure out which way the wind is blowing, they'll be able to get some expert analysis to back up whichever decisions they make.

If you live in Texas the prevailing attitudes may be different but whenever I give in to morbid curiosity and open up Nextdoor here in deep blue territory, it seems like for at least 80% of commenters, COVID=Ebola and no shutdown measure could ever go too far or too long.

There are definitely people in academia who see this as an opportunity to kill college sports. Helicopter parents aren't wild about letting their kids leave home even in normal times and now they have an ostensibly scientific cover for their neuroses. There are people who think maximum chaos and disruption will help bring about their preferred election result. Etc.

Good points about politicians and university presidents. I think the difference will be university presidents won’t be able to accept the financial hit of staying closed. They’re charging full tuition now but every one of them would get hit with lawsuits if they try it in the fall. Academic administrations are bloated beyond belief and they need to find a way to pay themselves.

For states it’s already divided with red states opening up (completely reasonable since they’re more rural). I’ll be shocked if Texas schools aren’t open on time. The May 1st Texas rules for opening released yesterday seem pretty rational which I was happy to see. Living in deep blue state must be unbearable at this point because Austin is bad enough. Rice is a mostly liberal student body and reading all the virtue signaling about staying isolated was already tiresome weeks ago.
04-28-2020 09:11 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Online
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Post: #28
RE: Will there be a football season?
California announced yesterday that they may start the 2020-21 school-year early - possibly in July. Although the announcement didn't mention whether it would be a mixture of online and physical classes, I get the sense that some of it at least would be in person since they talked about how that would help some parents be able to go back to work.

It seems like colleges should pursue that approach too where they can (like at Rice). In case we have a new outbreak in the fall or winter (and aren't prepared for it), getting some classes in over the summer might be the new normal for all schools. Going to a quarter system over semesters might be something to consider as well.

But I don't see where summer schooling really helps you get a football season in any easier.

https://www.politico.com/states/californ...ly-1280662
04-29-2020 07:07 AM
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mebehutchi Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Will there be a football season?
It's nice to be on a forum where people are actually looking at science, statistics, and applying it to data pertaining to what the goal of the lockdown was/is. That this does not seem to be the criteria for making actual decisions is why I don't think we play college football. CS Fullerton has already decided to go all online with fall classes, in April.
04-29-2020 09:10 AM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Will there be a football season?
UT announces that they plan to have a hybrid in-person/online model in the fall-with official word coming in June.

https://president.utexas.edu/messages-sp...stinSocial
04-29-2020 11:20 AM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Will there be a football season?
Right on cue...good read from ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...eason-2020
04-29-2020 11:53 AM
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ruowls Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Will there be a football season?
There are 3 potential means for transmission of disease that need to be addressed.

1) The participants: Players and coaches as well as support staff. The players will be mixing with students from their school as well as each other, coaches, opponents and another pool for transmission, game day support staff.

2) Game day support staff: Refs, chain gang, security, stats, vendors, TV or remote streaming staff and maintenance staff. This group will have overlapping contact with the participants as well as possible fans.

3) Fans, spectators: This group will come into contact with each other and group 2 with possibility of limited contact. This limited contact could be a means to bridge transmission from group 3 to group 1.

Testing only players routinely does nothing to prevent possible transmission from group 2 or 3. It also doesn't limit contact and exposure from other students. Testing participants would only ensure that they are not carrying the disease at the time of testing. They still are at risk of transmission from group 2 or 3. Testing ALL individuals from ALL groups before a game would be most difficult.

Even if you exclude fans (minimize group 3), you still have an open system with the possibility of transmission into group 1 from group 2 which is a must to conduct a contest.

So, this all comes back to what is the risk of disease to individuals. Also, if the spread is greater than known current prevalence, then there will be greater herd immunity in the fall which will minimize the risk even further. The vaccine is just a way to augment herd immunity by artificial means. And if herd immunity is already present, then what is the true risk? And as states open back up, herd immunity will continue to increase prior to the season.

In my opinion, we can't eliminate exposure to the virus. Even with a vaccine, we don't eliminate exposure. We increase herd immunity by artificial means. But if herd immunity is already present to a significant degree, what increase will a vaccine give? It would protect only those who didn't contract the virus and would be at risk for an adverse outcome if so exposed. And just how big is this risk? Probably not very big of a number. Life carries a certain amount of risk. So the question is if holding the upcoming season increases this risk for individuals? Unfortunately, we can't say for certain what the risk is. So, some predict the worse. Even if it is along the lines of a meteoroid falling from space and hitting a section in the stadium.

I would gladly be the medical staff at games and screen whoever I had to to get games to be played.
04-29-2020 02:07 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-29-2020 02:07 PM)ruowls Wrote:  There are 3 potential means for transmission of disease that need to be addressed.

1) The participants: Players and coaches as well as support staff. The players will be mixing with students from their school as well as each other, coaches, opponents and another pool for transmission, game day support staff.

2) Game day support staff: Refs, chain gang, security, stats, vendors, TV or remote streaming staff and maintenance staff. This group will have overlapping contact with the participants as well as possible fans.

3) Fans, spectators: This group will come into contact with each other and group 2 with possibility of limited contact. This limited contact could be a means to bridge transmission from group 3 to group 1.

Testing only players routinely does nothing to prevent possible transmission from group 2 or 3. It also doesn't limit contact and exposure from other students. Testing participants would only ensure that they are not carrying the disease at the time of testing. They still are at risk of transmission from group 2 or 3. Testing ALL individuals from ALL groups before a game would be most difficult.

Even if you exclude fans (minimize group 3), you still have an open system with the possibility of transmission into group 1 from group 2 which is a must to conduct a contest.

So, this all comes back to what is the risk of disease to individuals. Also, if the spread is greater than known current prevalence, then there will be greater herd immunity in the fall which will minimize the risk even further. The vaccine is just a way to augment herd immunity by artificial means. And if herd immunity is already present, then what is the true risk? And as states open back up, herd immunity will continue to increase prior to the season.

In my opinion, we can't eliminate exposure to the virus. Even with a vaccine, we don't eliminate exposure. We increase herd immunity by artificial means. But if herd immunity is already present to a significant degree, what increase will a vaccine give? It would protect only those who didn't contract the virus and would be at risk for an adverse outcome if so exposed. And just how big is this risk? Probably not very big of a number. Life carries a certain amount of risk. So the question is if holding the upcoming season increases this risk for individuals? Unfortunately, we can't say for certain what the risk is. So, some predict the worse. Even if it is along the lines of a meteoroid falling from space and hitting a section in the stadium.

I would gladly be the medical staff at games and screen whoever I had to to get games to be played.

Good summary.

We appreciate your generous offer to be the medical staff, but many of us would rather you be at the games coaching.
04-29-2020 02:11 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-29-2020 02:11 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  
(04-29-2020 02:07 PM)ruowls Wrote:  There are 3 potential means for transmission of disease that need to be addressed.

1) The participants: Players and coaches as well as support staff. The players will be mixing with students from their school as well as each other, coaches, opponents and another pool for transmission, game day support staff.

2) Game day support staff: Refs, chain gang, security, stats, vendors, TV or remote streaming staff and maintenance staff. This group will have overlapping contact with the participants as well as possible fans.

3) Fans, spectators: This group will come into contact with each other and group 2 with possibility of limited contact. This limited contact could be a means to bridge transmission from group 3 to group 1.

Testing only players routinely does nothing to prevent possible transmission from group 2 or 3. It also doesn't limit contact and exposure from other students. Testing participants would only ensure that they are not carrying the disease at the time of testing. They still are at risk of transmission from group 2 or 3. Testing ALL individuals from ALL groups before a game would be most difficult.

Even if you exclude fans (minimize group 3), you still have an open system with the possibility of transmission into group 1 from group 2 which is a must to conduct a contest.

So, this all comes back to what is the risk of disease to individuals. Also, if the spread is greater than known current prevalence, then there will be greater herd immunity in the fall which will minimize the risk even further. The vaccine is just a way to augment herd immunity by artificial means. And if herd immunity is already present, then what is the true risk? And as states open back up, herd immunity will continue to increase prior to the season.

In my opinion, we can't eliminate exposure to the virus. Even with a vaccine, we don't eliminate exposure. We increase herd immunity by artificial means. But if herd immunity is already present to a significant degree, what increase will a vaccine give? It would protect only those who didn't contract the virus and would be at risk for an adverse outcome if so exposed. And just how big is this risk? Probably not very big of a number. Life carries a certain amount of risk. So the question is if holding the upcoming season increases this risk for individuals? Unfortunately, we can't say for certain what the risk is. So, some predict the worse. Even if it is along the lines of a meteoroid falling from space and hitting a section in the stadium.

I would gladly be the medical staff at games and screen whoever I had to to get games to be played.

Good summary.

We appreciate your generous offer to be the medical staff, but many of us would rather you be at the games coaching.

Probably all of us.
04-29-2020 02:23 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Will there be a football season?
I am reminded of my old friend Chuck Latourette, who played NFL while in medical school in St. Louis, then came to Houston where he was with the Houston Gamblers of the USFL in three capacities - safety, punter, and team doctor.
(This post was last modified: 04-29-2020 02:26 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
04-29-2020 02:26 PM
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greyowl72 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Will there be a football season?
Very good discussion. I’ve enjoyed reading through it.
Just a couple of observations.
- right now, in every poll or survey I’ve seen the American public has basically and overwhelmingly said they are very wary of re-opening the country.
- the country IS being re-opened in stages and in various ways, a concept that I agree with, but also, that I’m unsure of its outcome.
- if the re-opening is successful and we don’t have a big spike in new cases in July/August I can see where the public might be a bit more willing to attend large gatherings. If there is a spike, and they go ahead with the season it will be a party that no one will attend.
- someone in this thread said it boils down to individual responsibility. And I totally agree. I belong to the 20-25% of the population that is at risk for severe problems if infected. So, I won’t be attending any games this Fall.
04-29-2020 06:31 PM
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75src Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Will there be a football season?
Rice has one advantage-Attendance is so sparse that we can social distance at football games.
04-30-2020 10:21 AM
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75src Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Will there be a football season?
Too much of the learning experience is lost with on-line only. Much of the experience comes from interacting with other students and participating in college activities. The learning is not just from lectures.

(04-28-2020 06:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:40 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:15 PM)Ourland Wrote:  There's no reason why these athletes can't be tested for COVID19 the night before a game. As for the fans, attend at your own risk.

How about the night before each practice?

Test them every week if you have to. Life needs to go on. Kids need to be back on campus. COVID19 isn't "novel" anymore, and college students get over it easily. My bet is that the season and the school year go on as previously planned. Things go back to normal within the next three months.
04-30-2020 10:29 AM
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RiceLad15 Online
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Post: #39
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-30-2020 10:29 AM)75src Wrote:  Too much of the learning experience is lost with on-line only. Much of the experience comes from interacting with other students and participating in college activities. The learning is not just from lectures.

(04-28-2020 06:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:40 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:15 PM)Ourland Wrote:  There's no reason why these athletes can't be tested for COVID19 the night before a game. As for the fans, attend at your own risk.

How about the night before each practice?

Test them every week if you have to. Life needs to go on. Kids need to be back on campus. COVID19 isn't "novel" anymore, and college students get over it easily. My bet is that the season and the school year go on as previously planned. Things go back to normal within the next three months.

We'll probably see large lecture-based classes go completely online for the lecture component. Students will watch the lectures on their own time, and class time will be focused on interaction/direct instruction. Smaller groups of students will work with TAs/professors to solve problems or dive deeper into specific topics brought up in the lectures during the class time.

Some courses have started migrating to that format already, and it is fairly easy to implement.
04-30-2020 10:39 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Will there be a football season?
(04-30-2020 10:39 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(04-30-2020 10:29 AM)75src Wrote:  Too much of the learning experience is lost with on-line only. Much of the experience comes from interacting with other students and participating in college activities. The learning is not just from lectures.

(04-28-2020 06:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:40 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 04:15 PM)Ourland Wrote:  There's no reason why these athletes can't be tested for COVID19 the night before a game. As for the fans, attend at your own risk.

How about the night before each practice?

Test them every week if you have to. Life needs to go on. Kids need to be back on campus. COVID19 isn't "novel" anymore, and college students get over it easily. My bet is that the season and the school year go on as previously planned. Things go back to normal within the next three months.

We'll probably see large lecture-based classes go completely online for the lecture component. Students will watch the lectures on their own time, and class time will be focused on interaction/direct instruction. Smaller groups of students will work with TAs/professors to solve problems or dive deeper into specific topics brought up in the lectures during the class time.

Some courses have started migrating to that format already, and it is fairly easy to implement.

Yup, I agree with this assessment-- I think school will start (perhaps delayed up to a month, depending on where things are at) with some combination of online and in-class courses. The biggest problem for the University to grapple with is how to work social distancing in the residential colleges, particularly at meal time. There is a liability issue Lebron and the BOTs need to consider-- not only from students/parents, but also professors and campus staff.
04-30-2020 10:49 AM
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