(03-14-2020 12:36 PM)e-parade Wrote:  And add more people at the bottom.

Italy's average age is older than most countries, but not to the hyperbolic levels you mentioned earlier.


FYI - by the end of today's reporting, the number of active cases will once again be larger than the number of people who have recovered.

They have a demography that flat out doesn't support a consumption based economy at least not without having a huge global export network and the support of a different (and cheap!) currency to help with exports. I've heard more than one highly credible expert refer to Italy's demography as "terminal", at least when it comes to the economic context of our lifetimes.

So the difference between AARP eligibility now (over half) and what I stated (2/3) is a single digit number of years. Assuming they don't mass die off.

Italy isn't Japan level old ... but it's friggin OLD.

(03-14-2020 08:17 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The death rate with this will follow the age of the population. Italy is old and are smokers to boot. It will hit them very hard. If a country has a healthy younger population they will have a lighter death rate.

Smoking appears to be a big risk factor for this.

In China, men were more than twice as likely to die as women. It's thought to be because Chinese men smoke a lot more than Chinese women.

Other big risk factors are cardiovascular disease (10% mortality rate for coronavirus patients) and diabetes (7% mortality rate). That's a bigger risk factor than cancer (5% mortality).

That doesn't bode well for the USA, which is #1 in both cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

(03-13-2020 06:35 AM)3BNole Wrote:  How many colleges drop sports because of this?

We may be looking at how many colleges will close entirely because of this. Or at least how many will see double digit percent enrollment declines this fall. Most colleges don’t do online education well. Even those that do still have significant physical footprints and large portions of their student bodies that mix both online and in person.

This pandemic paired with the birth dearth could cause some serious pain in higher ed. Dropped sports may be just a small piece of the damage.

(03-15-2020 12:12 AM)pkptigers07 Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 06:35 AM)3BNole Wrote:  How many colleges drop sports because of this?

We may be looking at how many colleges will close entirely because of this. Or at least how many will see double digit percent enrollment declines this fall. Most colleges don’t do online education well. Even those that do still have significant physical footprints and large portions of their student bodies that mix both online and in person.

This pandemic paired with the birth dearth could cause some serious pain in higher ed. Dropped sports may be just a small piece of the damage.

If this is a catalyst for speeding up the inevitable reduction in the number of colleges and universities in the US, that may not be entirely a bad thing. Those are probably schools that need to be closed.

New info from France:

About half of France's coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 65, health official says

Quote:...between 300 and 400 coronavirus patients in intensive care in France, about half of them are younger than 65

(03-13-2020 11:08 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Hmm so you saying a 70% death rate is happening in South Korea? Compared to 1%-7% to other flu.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/
Coronavirus Cases:
7,979
Deaths:
71
Recovered:
510

71/7979 = 0.0088983581902494
You may want to check you math. This is what adds fuel to Hysteria instead of just following precautions. People really should watch documentaries on the 1918 Spanish flu. That will show a true devastating pandemic. Smithsonions show American Hidden Stories had an excellent episode on this topic.

Everyone needs to use common sense, take care and follow the CDC recommendations.

I have to wonder about stats that come from other countries, let alone stats from ours.

(03-16-2020 10:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  New info from France:

About half of France's coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 65, health official says

Quote:...between 300 and 400 coronavirus patients in intensive care in France, about half of them are younger than 65

But is that because demand exceeds capacity and triaging is giving the beds to the people with best odds?

Per my cousin who teaches in med school after socking away quite a bit as chief of internal medicine at a hospital, we are less equipped than much of the industrial world because for-profit and "quasi-for-profit" hospitals (officially non-profit but are run by for-profit management companies and associations) have made decisions about capacity on ROI. Why staff capacity for 120 beds when your daily average bed count is 85? Instead they draw down their capacity to 90 to 100. If you average 4 patients on ventilators per day you aren't going to pay to have 8. Much of the rest of the industrial world has set capacity based on need plus emergency projections. Many (not all) take a civil defense approach to staffing and capacity.

It's not "bad" it's just that we run on tight margins.

Last spring I show up at my cancer clinic for chemo. They do my labs and take my vitals and tell me they are going to call an ambulance to send me to the hospital 500 yards across the campus. I give that a hell no and my wife drives me over and ER staff knows I'm shambling in and immediately isolates me from the people in the ER for fear one of them has a bug that will finish me off. They can't find a bed for me in the suburban hospital. They call the parent hospital 10 miles away and they are stacked even deeper with people waiting for a bed. After two hours of me in some holding room fricking delirious, hallucinating and dry heaving because I'm out of anything to puke up they find a bed for me.

Would take very little to overwhelm the hospitals here in Central Arkansas.