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An elephant in the room few have considered...
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #21
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 11:08 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Hmm so you saying a 70% death rate is happening in South Korea? Compared to 1%-7% to other flu.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/
Coronavirus Cases:
7,979
Deaths:
71
Recovered:
510

71/7979 = 0.0088983581902494
You may want to check you math. This is what adds fuel to Hysteria instead of just following precautions. People really should watch documentaries on the 1918 Spanish flu. That will show a true devastating pandemic. Smithsonions show American Hidden Stories had an excellent episode on this topic.

Everyone needs to use common sense, take care and follow the CDC recommendations.

...

0.7% is not the same thing as 70%, it's off by a factor of 100 - also South Korea has by far the best numbers out there.

Also "other flu" is not 1%-7%, it's much less than that. Again, you're looking at the numbers wrong. 0.01%-0.08%, again, off by a factor of 100.
03-13-2020 12:12 PM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #22
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 11:08 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Hmm so you saying a 70% death rate is happening in South Korea? Compared to 1%-7% to other flu.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/
Coronavirus Cases:
7,979
Deaths:
71
Recovered:
510

71/7979 = 0.0088983581902494
You may want to check you math. This is what adds fuel to Hysteria instead of just following precautions. People really should watch documentaries on the 1918 Spanish flu. That will show a true devastating pandemic. Smithsonions show American Hidden Stories had an excellent episode on this topic.

Everyone needs to use common sense, take care and follow the CDC recommendations.

If you don't understand the difference between 70% and 0.7% snarking on my understanding of math is not a great look
03-13-2020 02:31 PM
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PicksUp Offline
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Post: #23
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
.7 without the % sign is 70 percent.
.7% is less than 1%

Hope that helps anybody that unfortunately had to go to school in the US.
03-13-2020 02:40 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 09:21 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Just because you test negative once doesn't mean you would in subsequent tests. That portends countless contaminations. We won't see sports until a cure or vaccine is developed.

This is a correct observation.

The disease was transmitted from Wuhan to Chongqing by a young woman who tested negative multiple times, but she infected five members of her family some three weeks after she left Wuhan and in theory should not have been contagious. She never showed symptoms. Finally on the 3rd or 4th test she finally showed positive, some four plus weeks after having left Wuhan.

Many young people seem to be able to get the virus but not get sick, not showing symptoms and not testing positive (could also be limitations in the testing methods). And in at least one case be a carrier for weeks after one should be clear.

This kind of looks like hepatitis behavior, or perhaps herpes or small pox/shingles. Which begs the question, does the virus go into remission after being beaten back by the host immune system, hiding in some part of the body, only to reemerge weeks or years down the road? Will it be worse when it reappears as a person ages? There are a lot of things we don't know.
03-13-2020 02:47 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #25
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 02:31 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 11:08 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Hmm so you saying a 70% death rate is happening in South Korea? Compared to 1%-7% to other flu.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/
Coronavirus Cases:
7,979
Deaths:
71
Recovered:
510

71/7979 = 0.0088983581902494
You may want to check you math. This is what adds fuel to Hysteria instead of just following precautions. People really should watch documentaries on the 1918 Spanish flu. That will show a true devastating pandemic. Smithsonions show American Hidden Stories had an excellent episode on this topic.

Everyone needs to use common sense, take care and follow the CDC recommendations.

If you don't understand the difference between 70% and 0.7% snarking on my understanding of math is not a great look

I stand corrected, I did miss the %. My apologies, that was an incorrect post on my part. [Image: 2258_48495958002_8389_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&...e=5E91D2D9]
03-13-2020 04:10 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #26
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:23 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%


It doesn't change the overall scope: it only kills those at the margins particularly those at the margins with respiratory or cardiac issues. These are people who should live like there's a pandemic every day because they have a thin margin of error in their health. I feel like what we're seeing is more over-reaction than substance. The Y2K of 2020.

This is so very wrong in many ways.

First off, it is not just "killing at the margins" as if that is somehow ok. It is killing people that otherwise would live for years, if not decades.
Second, we are just hitting the tip of the wave. One of the things the CDC is trying to do is "flatten the curve" so it doesn't overwhelm the health system. Acute shortages are killing people.
Third, experience in Italy is showing a higher mortality rate among younger Italians - especially smokers. Whether the virus is mutating, or smoke has damaged lungs to a degree that the virus is easier to take hold remains to be seen.
Fourth - while it strikes older people harder, there are still people of all ages dying.
03-13-2020 04:50 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #27
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 10:20 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 04:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  President Trump’s CDC guy says months.... Obama’s CDC, second guessing from the sidelines, saying years. Probably somewhere in the middle

Thats what Im thnking. 12-18 months.

There's a good chance the virus will have run it's course in 18 months, so at that point no one would even need a vaccine (except future children, of course).
03-13-2020 04:57 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #28
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Three things:

1. Great points about South Korea - they are far from "normal" in their response. If we take the entire world - countries which are aggressive in their response along with those who act like it's no big deal - you get something like this: 5,083 total deaths worldwide and 138,611 confirmed cases - that's 3.7% dead! (again, compare to the common flu which kills only 0.01% to 0.08%).

2. It's easy to look at a number like 0.7% fatality rate (South Korea) and think "that's not so bad"... until you consider what that means in REAL terms. 0.7% of the US population would be 2.3 million dead.

3. If the average American has 16 friends and there is a 0.7% chance (lowball) that each of them might die - what are the odds that at least one of them will die?

1 - (1 - 0.007)^16 = 0.106
= 10.6% chance of at least one out of the 16 if the fatality rate is only 0.7%.

Note that if you have 24 friends the odds go up to 15.5%.

If the fatality rate is more like 2% instead of 0.7% then even with the smaller circle of 15 people...

1 - (1 - 0.02)^16 = 0.276 = 27.6% chance of at least one out of the 16.

...and if you have 24 friends and 2% fatalities, the odds go up to 38.4% - better than 1/3 - that one of your friends will die from this. Those are not what I'd call good odds.

Not taking aggressive steps gives you 3.4% dead; to get it down to 0.7% takes South Korean-like actions (and you're still looking at millions dead - not the 10,000 who died of influenza).

* I believe I'm using the correct probability formula, but if not I'm sure someone will correct me.
03-13-2020 05:25 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #29
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP. The Italian healthcare system is also not particularly great. And their economy is in shambles. And they have a government debt crisis to the point of near insolvency, so there can be no huge government response. Stop treating Italy like they're Switzerland and start treating them like they're a member of the P.I.G.S. of the southern Eurozone which are all so deeply screwed up financially they threaten the solvency of the Euro itself.

China outright makes **** up, their numbers are not trustworthy.

We don't have sufficient data yet from anywhere else (more than early onset) other than South Korea. The Germans and French should have some meaningful data in another week or two. But even it won't be to the meticulousness of the South Koreans.
03-13-2020 05:36 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #30
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP. The Italian healthcare system is also not particularly great. And their economy is in shambles. And they have a government debt crisis to the point of near insolvency, so there can be no huge government response. Stop treating Italy like they're Switzerland and start treating them like they're a member of the P.I.G.S. of the southern Eurozone which are all so deeply screwed up financially they threaten the solvency of the Euro itself.

China outright makes **** up, their numbers are not trustworthy.

We don't have sufficient data yet from anywhere else (more than early onset) other than South Korea. The Germans and French should have some meaningful data in another week or two. But even it won't be to the meticulousness of the South Koreans.

The initial outbreak in Italy was in the wealthiest part of the country that has a much better health system than the southern part.
03-13-2020 06:05 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #31
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP...

OK, that's just not true. However, they do have more percentage of people over 50 than the US does.
03-13-2020 07:58 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #32
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 07:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP...

OK, that's just not true. However, they do have more percentage of people over 50 than the US does.

[Image: italy-population-pyramid-2016.gif]
03-13-2020 10:26 PM
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Hammersmith Offline
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Post: #33
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 10:26 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 07:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP...

OK, that's just not true. However, they do have more percentage of people over 50 than the US does.

[Image: italy-population-pyramid-2016.gif]

That graph doesn't support your position. It shows the AARP age range of Italy is well under 50%, not over 66% as you claimed.

Did the male side and it worked out to about 40% at age 50 and above. Assume the female side would be fairly close.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 10:51 PM by Hammersmith.)
03-13-2020 10:45 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #34
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 10:26 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 07:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP...

OK, that's just not true. However, they do have more percentage of people over 50 than the US does.

[Image: italy-population-pyramid-2016.gif]

Now post the one that shows 67% over 55, rather than the one you posted that shows over 50% under 55.

However, all of the claims made about Italy suggests that they are likely to be one of the better analogies to the US, with our bumbling response to the crisis ... certainly the experience of the French, German or Swiss systems as they unfold would not offer as close an analogy.

And while it is true that Italian life expectancy at birth is higher than OECD averages and the Italian medical system was ranked in the top 5 in the 2015 WHO world health report, there are also regional disparities, as in the US, with a tendency for some patients in southern Italy to seek care in northern Italy.
03-13-2020 10:53 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #35
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
From today's Yahoo news feed:

[Image: 688b8550-654e-11ea-bdae-9fbcd75131ce]

Quote:According to Dr. Marty Makary, a medical professor at Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus is something that “people need to take seriously.”

“I’m concerned when I hear a neighbor or a friend say that they’re planning to go to a kid’s swim meet in three weeks or going on vacation next week,” Makary said on Yahoo Finance’s “On the Move” (video above) on Friday. “No — we’re about to experience the worst public health epidemic since polio.”

In the U.S. there are over 1,600 confirmed cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 41 deaths. Makary said that the number of cases, though, is likely much higher.

“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”

He added: “I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-mak...58545.html

Here's the stacked bar version of the graphed data:

==#######################@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
dead --------------- still sick ------------------------------------- recovered--------------------
03-14-2020 06:53 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #36
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 09:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 09:21 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Just because you test negative once doesn't mean you would in subsequent tests. That portends countless contaminations. We won't see sports until a cure or vaccine is developed.

These things run their course. Of course, noone is saying how long that is? 60 days? 5 years?

I don't trust the Chinese numbers.

The daily number of new cases outside of China is doubling every 5 days. At that rate, the entire world is infected by early June. See attachment.

And it may be worse, since these are merely documented cases from testing.

Studies show that once a member of a household is infected, the spread rate is 85% to other household members. Will we forcibly detain a member of a household who gets infected? China does. South Korea does. If we don't, we won't flatten the curve.

Hopefully, the warmer weather slows it down or burns it off. But that's just wishful thinking based on seasonal flu behavior. This isn't the flu.


Attached File(s)
.png  Screenshot 2020-03-14 07.41.49.png (Size: 64.06 KB / Downloads: 5)
(This post was last modified: 03-14-2020 07:44 AM by CougarRed.)
03-14-2020 07:36 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #37
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
The death rate with this will follow the age of the population. Italy is old and are smokers to boot. It will hit them very hard. If a country has a healthy younger population they will have a lighter death rate.
03-14-2020 08:17 AM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:23 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%


It doesn't change the overall scope: it only kills those at the margins particularly those at the margins with respiratory or cardiac issues. These are people who should live like there's a pandemic every day because they have a thin margin of error in their health. I feel like what we're seeing is more over-reaction than substance. The Y2K of 2020.

No, it can kill healthy people as well. As can the flu. The mortality rate of the 15-20% that have severe cases can be greatly reduced with good western medicine but that requires our hospitals to not be overrun. So we have S Korea and Italy as two models with vastly different mortality rates. S Korea looking pretty much like best case scenario and it could still kill over half a million americans. We certainly don't want to go the Italian route. It's a lot more communicable than the flu so it's harder to contain. Testing is the key and we're late on the upstart it seems.
03-14-2020 09:31 AM
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Post: #39
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 10:45 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 10:26 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 07:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP...

OK, that's just not true. However, they do have more percentage of people over 50 than the US does.

[Image: italy-population-pyramid-2016.gif]

That graph doesn't support your position. It shows the AARP age range of Italy is well under 50%, not over 66% as you claimed.

Did the male side and it worked out to about 40% at age 50 and above. Assume the female side would be fairly close.
That data is from 2016. Move everyone up one full bar.

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03-14-2020 10:53 AM
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Post: #40
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-14-2020 10:53 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 10:45 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 10:26 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 07:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 05:36 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The Italian population is very old -- over 2/3 would qualify for the AARP...

OK, that's just not true. However, they do have more percentage of people over 50 than the US does.

[Image: italy-population-pyramid-2016.gif]

That graph doesn't support your position. It shows the AARP age range of Italy is well under 50%, not over 66% as you claimed.

Did the male side and it worked out to about 40% at age 50 and above. Assume the female side would be fairly close.
That data is from 2016. Move everyone up one full bar.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

And add more people at the bottom.

Italy's average age is older than most countries, but not to the hyperbolic levels you mentioned earlier.


FYI - by the end of today's reporting, the number of active cases will once again be larger than the number of people who have recovered.
03-14-2020 12:36 PM
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