(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote: (03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

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It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.

2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)

3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.

4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Three things:

1. Great points about South Korea - they are far from "normal" in their response.

If we take the entire world - countries which are aggressive in their response along with those who act like it's no big deal - you get something like this:

5,083 total deaths worldwide and 138,611 confirmed cases - that's 3.7% dead! (again, compare to the common flu which kills only 0.01% to 0.08%).

2. It's easy to look at a number like 0.7% fatality rate (South Korea) and think "that's not so bad"... until you consider what that means in REAL terms.

0.7% of the US population would be 2.3 million dead.
3. If the average American has 16 friends and there is a 0.7% chance (lowball) that each of them might die - what are the odds that at least one of them will die?

1 - (1 - 0.007)^16 = 0.106

=

10.6% chance of at least one out of the 16 if the fatality rate is only 0.7%.
Note that if you have 24 friends the odds go up to 15.5%.

If the fatality rate is more like 2% instead of 0.7% then even with the smaller circle of 15 people...

1 - (1 - 0.02)^16 = 0.276 = 27.6% chance of at least one out of the 16.

...and

if you have 24 friends and 2% fatalities, the odds go up to 38.4% - better than 1/3 - that one of your friends will die from this. Those are not what I'd call good odds.

Not taking aggressive steps gives you 3.4% dead; to get it down to 0.7% takes South Korean-like actions (and you're still looking at millions dead - not the 10,000 who died of influenza).

* I believe I'm using the correct probability formula, but if not I'm sure someone will correct me.