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An elephant in the room few have considered...
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #1
An elephant in the room few have considered...
Just because you test negative once doesn't mean you would in subsequent tests. That portends countless contaminations. We won't see sports until a cure or vaccine is developed.
03-12-2020 09:21 PM
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Post: #2
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 09:21 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Just because you test negative once doesn't mean you would in subsequent tests. That portends countless contaminations. We won't see sports until a cure or vaccine is developed.

These things run their course. Of course, noone is saying how long that is? 60 days? 5 years?
03-12-2020 09:22 PM
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Hammersmith Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 09:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 09:21 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Just because you test negative once doesn't mean you would in subsequent tests. That portends countless contaminations. We won't see sports until a cure or vaccine is developed.

These things run their course. Of course, noone is saying how long that is? 60 days? 5 years?

The time will depend on how long it takes the population to develop natural and artificial(vaccine) immunities. Honestly, we want it to take a longer amount of time. A short amount of time means that it has raced through the population, likely overwhelming the medical system with critical cases. A longer span of time means a better chance of things remaining under control. It's what they keep referring to as flattening the curve. Eventually enough people will have gotten the disease and become immune, plus hopefully a vaccine will increase those numbers, that the virus can't spread effectively anymore.

However the nightmare scenario is that beating the virus does not convey immunity. In that case, all bets are off and start praying for a quick vaccine.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2020 09:44 PM by Hammersmith.)
03-12-2020 09:42 PM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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Post: #4
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 09:42 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  However the nightmare scenario is that beating the virus does not convey immunity. In that case, all bets are off and start praying for a quick vaccine.

I admittedly am not a biologist - but is there any chance at all that "beating this virus not convey (at least considerable) immunity?" This virus isn't THAT unusual.

We need to be fast-tracking serology tests. Those would give an indication of how many people "did go through an infection but then cleared it from their system."
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2020 10:08 PM by Nittany_Bearcat.)
03-12-2020 10:04 PM
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Hammersmith Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 10:04 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 09:42 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  However the nightmare scenario is that beating the virus does not convey immunity. In that case, all bets are off and start praying for a quick vaccine.

I admittedly am not a biologist - but is there any chance at all that "beating this virus not convey (at least considerable) immunity?" This virus isn't THAT unusual.

We need to be fast-tracking serology tests. Those would give an indication of how many people "did go through an infection but then cleared it from their system."

It's quite unlikely, but this is a brand new virus(to us) so I wouldn't like to assume anything yet.
03-12-2020 10:26 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 09:42 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  Eventually enough people will have gotten the disease and become immune, plus hopefully a vaccine will increase those numbers, that the virus can't spread effectively anymore.

This is what is called "herd immunity". It's why Chancellor Merkel was saying 50% to 70% of the German population would be infected if action is not taken.

Quote:However the nightmare scenario is that beating the virus does not convey immunity. In that case, all bets are off and start praying for a quick vaccine.
So far the indications are that recovered patients acquire immunity. That would seem to also be implied by the success they have had in using the plasma of recovered individuals in helping to treat critically ill cases.
03-12-2020 11:15 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
President Trump’s CDC guy says months.... Obama’s CDC, second guessing from the sidelines, saying years. Probably somewhere in the middle
03-13-2020 04:24 AM
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Pir8inRichmond Offline
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Post: #8
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 04:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  President Trump’s CDC guy says months.... Obama’s CDC, second guessing from the sidelines, saying years. Probably somewhere in the middle

The director of BAFTA (who is now reporting to pence) said one year of everything goes perfect, which he also said has never happened. Guessing 12-18 months. Hopefully this wanes as we get towards the summer and it’s not as prevalent.
03-13-2020 05:54 AM
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3BNole Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
How many colleges drop sports because of this?
03-13-2020 06:35 AM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #10
An elephant in the room few have considered...
I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

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03-13-2020 06:39 AM
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Post: #11
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 10:26 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 10:04 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 09:42 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  However the nightmare scenario is that beating the virus does not convey immunity. In that case, all bets are off and start praying for a quick vaccine.

I admittedly am not a biologist - but is there any chance at all that "beating this virus not convey (at least considerable) immunity?" This virus isn't THAT unusual.

We need to be fast-tracking serology tests. Those would give an indication of how many people "did go through an infection but then cleared it from their system."

It's quite unlikely, but this is a brand new virus(to us) so I wouldn't like to assume anything yet.

Its a new version of a conovirus. While its new, its not that unique.
03-13-2020 08:46 AM
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Post: #12
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%
03-13-2020 09:12 AM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%


It doesn't change the overall scope: it only kills those at the margins particularly those at the margins with respiratory or cardiac issues. These are people who should live like there's a pandemic every day because they have a thin margin of error in their health. I feel like what we're seeing is more over-reaction than substance. The Y2K of 2020.
03-13-2020 09:23 AM
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mpurdy22 Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-12-2020 10:26 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 10:04 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-12-2020 09:42 PM)Hammersmith Wrote:  However the nightmare scenario is that beating the virus does not convey immunity. In that case, all bets are off and start praying for a quick vaccine.

I admittedly am not a biologist - but is there any chance at all that "beating this virus not convey (at least considerable) immunity?" This virus isn't THAT unusual.

We need to be fast-tracking serology tests. Those would give an indication of how many people "did go through an infection but then cleared it from their system."

It's quite unlikely, but this is a brand new virus(to us) so I wouldn't like to assume anything yet.

This is where I get confused. Why do they say this is brand new?? My over 1 year old (think its actually two years old) can of disinfectant spray can says it kills SARS Corona virus and Human Corona virus among the 100 germs it kills. So corona virus doesn't appear to be all that new.
03-13-2020 09:32 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:23 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It doesn't change the overall scope: it only kills those at the margins particularly those at the margins with respiratory or cardiac issues. These are people who should live like there's a pandemic every day because they have a thin margin of error in their health. I feel like what we're seeing is more over-reaction than substance. The Y2K of 2020.
In the US, it's the opposite of Y2K, which was well understood, had a lot of people with advance warning working on the problem, and which would have been quite a problem if people hadn't worked long and hard on preventing it.

"It only kills at the margins" is thanks to the ability to put people in severe respiratory distress on ventilators. If we elect to allow the spread of the disease to progress far enough to overwhelm our ability to put people on respirators, the percentage death rate will spike.

(03-13-2020 09:32 AM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  This is where I get confused. Why do they say this is brand new?? My over 1 year old (think its actually two years old) can of disinfectant spray can says it kills SARS Corona virus and Human Corona virus among the 100 germs it kills. So corona virus doesn't appear to be all that new.

covid19 is a coronavirus that is new to humans. "Coronavirus" is the name for a family of viruses that are round and covered in a fatty lipid and have spikes sticking out that struck somebody as looking like the spikes on old fashioned medieval crowns ... but the exact make-up of the spikes are different for each specific virus in the family.

There are like four "human" coronaviruses that cause colds, because they attack nasal passages. MERS and SARS and COVID19 are caused by coronaviruses that are newly introduced to human populations, so we don't have immunity to them from prior exposure. They also attack lung tissues rather than nasal passages, which is why their symptoms are more like influenza than a cold.

They think that the one causing covid19 may be from a coronavirus endemic among bats, though it might be from a coronavirus that is endemic among pangolins. But in any event, it's new to humans so it's spreading like a novel virus rather than spreading like an endemic one. As Mark Lipsitch at Harvard notes,
Quote: Even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new.
New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them. Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among the few who aren’t. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living — spread through the population — only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case in winter.

The consequence is that new viruses — like pandemic influenza — can spread outside the normal season for their longer-established cousins. For example in 2009, the pandemic started in April-May (well outside of flu season), quieted in the summer (perhaps because of the importance of children in transmission of flu), and then rebounded in September-October, before the start of normal flu season. Seasonality does not constrain pandemic viruses the way it does old ones. This pattern is common for flu pandemics.
Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

Soap is really good against coronaviruses because of that lipid layer. So is alcohol, but not as much. Peroxide bleach and chlorine bleach disinfect it well (though obviously pick one and stick to it, because the gas from mixing the two can kill you as dead as the coronavirus).
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 09:50 AM by BruceMcF.)
03-13-2020 09:37 AM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #16
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:37 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  In the US, it's the opposite of Y2K, which was well understood, had a lot of people with advance warning working on the problem, and which would have been quite a problem if people hadn't worked long and hard on preventing it.

That was largely a boondoggle. In the vast majority of cases the code got audited at great expense but no changes were made. Here, just look at all the "work" GNU had to do to make most of the Linux userland utilities Y2K compliant: https://www.gnu.org/software/year2000-list.html

You have a point with the advanced warning, but come on at it being some huge triumph of armies of professional developers and programmers. People made fortunes auditing mainframe software so they could make no changes and declare it Y2K compliant. If anything Y2K was a tax on people nursing legacy systems and black box systems along.
03-13-2020 10:06 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #17
RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 04:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  President Trump’s CDC guy says months.... Obama’s CDC, second guessing from the sidelines, saying years. Probably somewhere in the middle

Thats what Im thnking. 12-18 months.
03-13-2020 10:20 AM
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 10:20 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 04:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  President Trump’s CDC guy says months.... Obama’s CDC, second guessing from the sidelines, saying years. Probably somewhere in the middle

Thats what Im thnking. 12-18 months.

That's what that UCSF panel says in the other thread.

Of course, they also say the NY Times is good for scientific accuracy.
03-13-2020 10:57 AM
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 09:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 06:39 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I think it's more likely baseball is resumed than we go all the way to fall without sports. I still say based on the preponderance of evidence that this is just a bad seasonal flu. The place with the best stats is South Korea. The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.7%. That's within the margin of error of a normal flu.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using CSNbbs mobile app

It is irrelevant to simply toss out the South Korea example without looking at WHY South Korea is doing well.

1. They test test test test. They are testing 15,000 per day, we've not tested 15,000 cumulative.
2. The infected are tracked by GPS and shown on a live map (no names revealed)
3. Once you test positive, they do a deep dive into everyone you've potentially exposed and they test them.
4. They didn't impose a travel ban, they take the temperature of everyone entering the country and get contact information on everyone entering.

The UK NHS had estimated weeks ago that if ALL cases were counted the death rate from Coronavirus would be 9 in 1000 or 0.9%

The mortality rate of 0.7% in South Korea is NOT on par with the flu, it's more than 10 times higher than a typical flu outbreak which run 0.01% to 0.08%

Hmm so you saying a 70% death rate is happening in South Korea? Compared to 1%-7% to other flu.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/
Coronavirus Cases:
7,979
Deaths:
71
Recovered:
510

71/7979 = 0.0088983581902494
You may want to check you math. This is what adds fuel to Hysteria instead of just following precautions. People really should watch documentaries on the 1918 Spanish flu. That will show a true devastating pandemic. Smithsonions show American Hidden Stories had an excellent episode on this topic.

Everyone needs to use common sense, take care and follow the CDC recommendations.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 11:10 AM by msm96wolf.)
03-13-2020 11:08 AM
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RE: An elephant in the room few have considered...
(03-13-2020 10:20 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 04:24 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  President Trump’s CDC guy says months.... Obama’s CDC, second guessing from the sidelines, saying years. Probably somewhere in the middle

Thats what Im thnking. 12-18 months.

At the beginning of the outbreak in China, when Trump had the press conference. The one of the Dr.s stated the best if fast track would be 18 months do to the trials and proper vetting. I wish the media and politicians stop treatng this as politics and put the petty differences and allow us to unite as a country.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 11:19 AM by msm96wolf.)
03-13-2020 11:19 AM
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