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Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
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colohank Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 09:21 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 07:24 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  I didn't read it all but lets say there was an 8 team w/ the current conf. lineup and the 5,2,1 rule

1.LSU v 8.Memphis
4.Oklahoma v 5.Georgia
3.Clemson v 6.Oregon
2.Ohio St. v 7.Baylor

So #5, #7 were the at larges. If they went to the 4x16 conf. then 4,3,1 rule would take place opening another at large.

5-2-1 is a G5 pipedream......so is 4-3-1.
When we get to a P4, the G schools will have to start their own playoff. It creates more opportunities for the networks to make money and will eliminate any committee's selection of a playoff participant.

If the so-called G schools have their own playoff, how long would it be before there's a demand for a P5/G5 matchup to determine an undisputed national champion? Remember when the NFL looked down its nose at the AFL? Namath's NY Jets put a stop to that.
12-14-2019 03:43 PM
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TodgeRodge Offline
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Post: #122
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-13-2019 06:20 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  delaney will be gone soon, he has made a lot of decisions that he soon after expresses he might wish to change (leaders/legends, 9 conference games, and CCG rules) and while adding Maryland and RU has paid off so far who knows how far into the future that is really the case

he is hardly the one that people should give great credibility to when it comes to making decisions for all of the P5

If the SEC and B$G are aligned on something, it will almost certainly happen. When the 4 team playoff happened, Delaney and Slive got together and worked it out and presented it to the rest.

If they are split, then things can go one way or the other. But those two conferences have the most financial power and when united, can call the shots. That won't change with a change in commissioners.


but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference
12-14-2019 04:11 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #123
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 04:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-13-2019 06:20 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  delaney will be gone soon, he has made a lot of decisions that he soon after expresses he might wish to change (leaders/legends, 9 conference games, and CCG rules) and while adding Maryland and RU has paid off so far who knows how far into the future that is really the case

he is hardly the one that people should give great credibility to when it comes to making decisions for all of the P5

If the SEC and B$G are aligned on something, it will almost certainly happen. When the 4 team playoff happened, Delaney and Slive got together and worked it out and presented it to the rest.

If they are split, then things can go one way or the other. But those two conferences have the most financial power and when united, can call the shots. That won't change with a change in commissioners.


but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference

1. The reason the ACC and SEC have not moved to 9 conference games is unlike the Big 10 in their last negotiations for rights money with FOX the SEC and ACC have not sold the value of that 9th conference game. The SEC might with CBS who wants to up content by a couple of games, or with whoever wins the bid. The Big 10 had that in their valuation for the last contract. The ACC won't approach that matter, unless voluntarily, until 2037.

2. Sankey has come out against CFP expansion period.
12-14-2019 04:34 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #124
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 01:40 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 11:32 AM)esayem Wrote:  Idk, 12 seemed to work quite well. The ACC was the first to go to 14 and started all this garbage.

SEC beat them to it by a few weeks. See the SU fan's thread: https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-890292.html

It is all about conference networks on a forced pay model that is going away. They made "100 year decisions" on a 15 year product delivery model.

And the SEC did just fine with A&M no matter what model we move to. The additions by the Big 10 (Rutgers and Maryland) and the ACC (Syracuse and Pitt) and the disposition of Missouri by the SEC may be market additions that don't pan out in the long haul. But no school is getting kicked out of any of those conferences and I sincerely doubt the SEC is handicapped in anyway when the next rights deal to replace or renew the CBS contract is completed.

While I agree that no school is going to get kicked out of their conference home, I can see instances where individual schools may enter a transfer portal to move to another conference home.
If the Big 12 comes out of 2025 unscathed, Missouri and Nebraska are possibilities to transfer back (perhaps Colorado too) or Missouri may entertain a move to the B1G.
FSU might have to look toward the SEC to regain their lost mojo, while Kentucky and Vanderbilt might find better cultural fits in another conference.
As long as the networks can increase their profits regardless of the configurations, they are apt to help rather than hinder these moves.

Missouri will stay put for no other reason than with the death of the market footprint pay model they offer little in the way of content value to the Big 10. And the Big 10 didn't take them in 2010 for a variety of reasons not the least of which was that the Big 10 already penetrated both the Kansas City and St. Louis TV markets.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky aren't leaving the SEC either. If they were going to they would have done it before the SEC became an economic giant, not after.

Nobody is returning to the Big 12. Nebraska athletic supporters might wish to do so but the President and faculty certainly don't and a return to the Big 12 for them would not only mean a downgrade in academic company, but much less revenue as they are now receiving full shares of Big 10 money.

So no X, I just don't see that kind of movement. And FSU's problems are deeper than just athletic performance as there is an apparent divergence of vision between boosters and administration.

Did you miss the "IF" in the statement about the survival of the Big 12. Evidently!
12-14-2019 04:57 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #125
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
Like I always preach:

8 team playoff is pretty sound -- but it takes away the amount of teams (12) being able to play in Big $ Bowls. You're reducing that by 50%.

The second big problem: Top G5 ain't getting an auto-bid for an 8-team playoff. At best, a somewhat lenient Chance for it -- compared to when there was 10 "BCS" bowls. Basically, said G5 Champ would have to be better than one of the P5 champs who got an auto-bid (or ranked in Top 10-12). On average, expect 1 out of 4-5 years a G5 getting in. That's a blow to the Elite Game situation. And yes, with an 8-team playoff, these are going to be the ONLY "Elite" games. Again, 50% less teams involved, in this 130-team football division. A lot of Resistance against it.

That's why I say just changing up the current 12-team BCS/NY bowl situation --> 12 team playoff where the Top 4 get a bye.

16-team conferences over time is doable. But remember, it's going to be done by their own volition. B12 lost a couple teams and isn't in a super-hurry to refill (although they will in due time).

But ALL conferences being 16? No. Basically, you'd be going from 130 FBS teams -> 157-160 teams (depends on if Ind teams join to some degree). I don't think there's a desire to import even More FCS teams into FBS. But in 2050? Yeah, I could see that. Assuming CFB flourishes well, and doesn't falter a bit due to injuries & people joining due to that stuff (as present time seems to indicate).
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2019 05:20 PM by toddjnsn.)
12-14-2019 05:05 PM
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Realigned Offline
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Post: #126
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 01:40 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 11:32 AM)esayem Wrote:  Idk, 12 seemed to work quite well. The ACC was the first to go to 14 and started all this garbage.

SEC beat them to it by a few weeks. See the SU fan's thread: https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-890292.html

It is all about conference networks on a forced pay model that is going away. They made "100 year decisions" on a 15 year product delivery model.

And the SEC did just fine with A&M no matter what model we move to. The additions by the Big 10 (Rutgers and Maryland) and the ACC (Syracuse and Pitt) and the disposition of Missouri by the SEC may be market additions that don't pan out in the long haul. But no school is getting kicked out of any of those conferences and I sincerely doubt the SEC is handicapped in anyway when the next rights deal to replace or renew the CBS contract is completed.

While I agree that no school is going to get kicked out of their conference home, I can see instances where individual schools may enter a transfer portal to move to another conference home.
If the Big 12 comes out of 2025 unscathed, Missouri and Nebraska are possibilities to transfer back (perhaps Colorado too) or Missouri may entertain a move to the B1G.
FSU might have to look toward the SEC to regain their lost mojo, while Kentucky and Vanderbilt might find better cultural fits in another conference.
As long as the networks can increase their profits regardless of the configurations, they are apt to help rather than hinder these moves.

Missouri will stay put for no other reason than with the death of the market footprint pay model they offer little in the way of content value to the Big 10. And the Big 10 didn't take them in 2010 for a variety of reasons not the least of which was that the Big 10 already penetrated both the Kansas City and St. Louis TV markets.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky aren't leaving the SEC either. If they were going to they would have done it before the SEC became an economic giant, not after.

Nobody is returning to the Big 12. Nebraska athletic supporters might wish to do so but the President and faculty certainly don't and a return to the Big 12 for them would not only mean a downgrade in academic company, but much less revenue as they are now receiving full shares of Big 10 money.

So no X, I just don't see that kind of movement. And FSU's problems are deeper than just athletic performance as there is an apparent divergence of vision between boosters and administration.

I understand that the Big 10 had penetrated the St. Louis market in 2010, but I don’t think penetrated Kansas City. I think Nebraska claims to deliver KC which is a stretch but more likely than any of the other Big 10 schools.
12-14-2019 05:06 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #127
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 05:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Like I always preach:

8 team playoff is pretty sound -- but it takes away the amount of teams (12) being able to play in Big $ Bowls. You're reducing that by 50%.
And yes, with an 8-team playoff, these are going to be the ONLY "Elite" games.

No it doesn’t, not if you do it correctly.

Have the first round at home sites the week after CCGs. That’s the only way you’re going to guarantee sellouts. Then have the big bowl selection show that next day on a Sunday, although a lot of them will be almost determined, it’s still “must see TV”.
12-14-2019 05:23 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #128
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
Quote:No it doesn’t, not if you do it correctly.

I'm talking about the number of TEAMS. 12->8 is losing actually 1/3rd of the teams (my bad). Going with 8 instead of the current 12, you'd need to add 50% more to back to where you were.

Still, a big drop. The other 4 teams would be playing in one of those non-"BCS" NY/NYE bowls instead.
12-14-2019 05:51 PM
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Post: #129
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 04:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-13-2019 06:20 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  delaney will be gone soon, he has made a lot of decisions that he soon after expresses he might wish to change (leaders/legends, 9 conference games, and CCG rules) and while adding Maryland and RU has paid off so far who knows how far into the future that is really the case

he is hardly the one that people should give great credibility to when it comes to making decisions for all of the P5

If the SEC and B$G are aligned on something, it will almost certainly happen. When the 4 team playoff happened, Delaney and Slive got together and worked it out and presented it to the rest.

If they are split, then things can go one way or the other. But those two conferences have the most financial power and when united, can call the shots. That won't change with a change in commissioners.


but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference

1. The reason the ACC and SEC have not moved to 9 conference games is unlike the Big 10 in their last negotiations for rights money with FOX the SEC and ACC have not sold the value of that 9th conference game. The SEC might with CBS who wants to up content by a couple of games, or with whoever wins the bid. The Big 10 had that in their valuation for the last contract. The ACC won't approach that matter, unless voluntarily, until 2037.

2. Sankey has come out against CFP expansion period.

Some other reasons the ACC and SEC stuck with 8 games

There are 4 instra-state battles between the ACC and SEC played every year.

Florida-FSU
Ga-GT
Clem-South Car
Ky- Lou

Plus the ACC has 5 teams play Notre Dame every year

So, for example in a year when GT plays Notre Dame, they already have 10 P5 opponents. If the ACC went to 9 conference games, then the year they play Notre Dame, they would have 11 P5 opponents. Not the end of the world, I guess, but I guess I can understand why the ACC especially stuck with 8 conference games.
12-14-2019 06:05 PM
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Post: #130
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 04:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-13-2019 06:20 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  delaney will be gone soon, he has made a lot of decisions that he soon after expresses he might wish to change (leaders/legends, 9 conference games, and CCG rules) and while adding Maryland and RU has paid off so far who knows how far into the future that is really the case

he is hardly the one that people should give great credibility to when it comes to making decisions for all of the P5

If the SEC and B$G are aligned on something, it will almost certainly happen. When the 4 team playoff happened, Delaney and Slive got together and worked it out and presented it to the rest.

If they are split, then things can go one way or the other. But those two conferences have the most financial power and when united, can call the shots. That won't change with a change in commissioners.


but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference

1. The reason the ACC and SEC have not moved to 9 conference games is unlike the Big 10 in their last negotiations for rights money with FOX the SEC and ACC have not sold the value of that 9th conference game. The SEC might with CBS who wants to up content by a couple of games, or with whoever wins the bid. The Big 10 had that in their valuation for the last contract. The ACC won't approach that matter, unless voluntarily, until 2037.

2. Sankey has come out against CFP expansion period.


the number of conference games played does not increase the amount of content available to any media partner

in fact there is a good chance it would decrease it because it limits the number of OOC games that teams can buy in a guaranteed home game with no return game to the opponent the next season

playing additional conference games will not have any effect on the number of games available for CBS or anyone that bids on that content

there is only one game a week and the CCG available for bid and playing more conference games does not change that fact

people never seem to grasp this concept in discussions about media contracts

if Alabama plays north Texas state at home in a buy in game in 2030 and Florida plays FAU in a buy in game in 2030 that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partner

if Alabama plays FIU at home in 2031 for a buy in game and Florida plays USF in 2031 for a buy in game that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

if Alabama plays Florida at Alabama in 2030 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners and then Alabama plays at Florida in 2031 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

so those additional home games are a net loss of one game a year and two games total over two years for the SEC SEC SEC media partners

in addition to that the SEC SEC SEC had a chance to sell "additional home games" if their main media partner ESPN wanted that when the SEC SEC SEC network was being created, but of course the SEC SEC SEC network is about having as much total content available as possible so having one game a year less to place on that third tier network is not of value to ESPN

and with the CBS content available it is for the "best available game of the week" as determined by CBS......it does not really allow for any "new" games to be played that would suddenly be available for anyone bidding on that content......plus as I have already shown additional conference games does not magically create new games out of thin air to bid on in the case of a conference like the SEC SEC SEC that plays a lot of buy in games every year for all their teams and in fact it would most likely decrease it

there are only 14 teams with 12 potential wins or losses available to bid on which is 168 wins and losses

every conference game played is 1 win and one loss guaranteed and one game available for the media partners.....the only way to increase the number of games available to a media partner would be to DECREASE the number of conference games played and then INCREASE the number of buy in games with no return game the next season

this is similar in concept to how playing more conference games hurts the PAC 12, Big 12 and Big 10 because you are taking away the chance to get a win without a guaranteed loss for in OOC game and replacing that with a guaranteed win AND a GUARANTEED LOSS for the conference in a conference game

and the ACC had a chance to do the same with the ACC network creation as well......but ESPN seemed to have no interest in that

not to mention the SEC SEC SEC and ACC both understand the concept of getting strength of schedule for the total CONFERENCE by beating teams from OTHER conference even if those other teams are very weak

and this concept has been proven with a mathematical study that was done on the PAC 12 with 8 or 9 conference games replacing a conference game with an OOC game equal to the WEAKEST OOC game on a teams schedule and the result was that all the teams in the conference with the exception of the weakest two with the two worst records had statistically meaningful increases in their overall strength of schedule

because of a couple of concepts that many people have a hard time grasping and that is you play many more conference games so even slight increase in wins for any member of your conference makes a large change in the strength of schedule for all members

and a the second concept that aggy especially has a hard time grasping and that is there is no loss that is better than a win no matter who you lose to vs who you win against
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2019 06:22 PM by TodgeRodge.)
12-14-2019 06:14 PM
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Post: #131
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 06:14 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-13-2019 06:20 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  delaney will be gone soon, he has made a lot of decisions that he soon after expresses he might wish to change (leaders/legends, 9 conference games, and CCG rules) and while adding Maryland and RU has paid off so far who knows how far into the future that is really the case

he is hardly the one that people should give great credibility to when it comes to making decisions for all of the P5

If the SEC and B$G are aligned on something, it will almost certainly happen. When the 4 team playoff happened, Delaney and Slive got together and worked it out and presented it to the rest.

If they are split, then things can go one way or the other. But those two conferences have the most financial power and when united, can call the shots. That won't change with a change in commissioners.


but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference

1. The reason the ACC and SEC have not moved to 9 conference games is unlike the Big 10 in their last negotiations for rights money with FOX the SEC and ACC have not sold the value of that 9th conference game. The SEC might with CBS who wants to up content by a couple of games, or with whoever wins the bid. The Big 10 had that in their valuation for the last contract. The ACC won't approach that matter, unless voluntarily, until 2037.

2. Sankey has come out against CFP expansion period.


the number of conference games played does not increase the amount of content available to any media partner

in fact there is a good chance it would decrease it because it limits the number of OOC games that teams can buy in a guaranteed home game with no return game to the opponent the next season

playing additional conference games will not have any effect on the number of games available for CBS or anyone that bids on that content

there is only one game a week and the CCG available for bid and playing more conference games does not change that fact

people never seem to grasp this concept in discussions about media contracts

if Alabama plays north Texas state at home in a buy in game in 2030 and Florida plays FAU in a buy in game in 2030 that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partner

if Alabama plays FIU at home in 2031 for a buy in game and Florida plays USF in 2031 for a buy in game that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

if Alabama plays Florida at Alabama in 2030 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners and then Alabama plays at Florida in 2031 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

so those additional home games are a net loss of one game a year and two games total over two years for the SEC SEC SEC media partners

in addition to that the SEC SEC SEC had a chance to sell "additional home games" of their main media partner ESPN wanted that when the SEC SEC SEC network was being created, but of course the SEC SEC SEC network is about having as much total content available as possible so having one game a year less to place on that third tier network is not of value to ESPN

and the ACC had a chance to do the same with the ACC network creation as well......but ESPN seemed to have no interest in that

not to mention the SEC SEC SEC and ACC both understand the concept of getting strength of schedule for the total CONFERENCE by beating teams from OTHER conference even if those other teams are very weak

and this concept has been proven with a mathematical study that was done on the PAC 12 with 8 or 9 conference games replacing a conference game with an OOC game equal to the WEAKEST OOC game on a teams schedule and the result was that all the teams in the conference with the exception of the weakest two with the two worst records had statistically meaningful increases in their overall strength of schedule

because of a couple of concepts that many people have a hard time grasping and that is you play many more conference games so even slight increase in wins for any member of your conference makes a large change in the strength of schedule for all members

and a the second concept that aggy especially has a hard time grasping and that is there is no loss that is better than a win no matter who you lose to vs who you win against

Content isn't measured in quantity. It's measured in quality and yes they pay more for that.

And Todge, in the SEC playing in conference is usually better than picking up just any OOC P game.

The rest of your post is pretty much Big 12 Schadenfreude. But it is what I expect.

The SEC presidents were well schooled by Mike Slive. We don't make any concession until we are paid for it and we give up nothing for free.
12-14-2019 06:20 PM
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Post: #132
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 06:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 06:14 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  If the SEC and B$G are aligned on something, it will almost certainly happen. When the 4 team playoff happened, Delaney and Slive got together and worked it out and presented it to the rest.

If they are split, then things can go one way or the other. But those two conferences have the most financial power and when united, can call the shots. That won't change with a change in commissioners.


but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference

1. The reason the ACC and SEC have not moved to 9 conference games is unlike the Big 10 in their last negotiations for rights money with FOX the SEC and ACC have not sold the value of that 9th conference game. The SEC might with CBS who wants to up content by a couple of games, or with whoever wins the bid. The Big 10 had that in their valuation for the last contract. The ACC won't approach that matter, unless voluntarily, until 2037.

2. Sankey has come out against CFP expansion period.


the number of conference games played does not increase the amount of content available to any media partner

in fact there is a good chance it would decrease it because it limits the number of OOC games that teams can buy in a guaranteed home game with no return game to the opponent the next season

playing additional conference games will not have any effect on the number of games available for CBS or anyone that bids on that content

there is only one game a week and the CCG available for bid and playing more conference games does not change that fact

people never seem to grasp this concept in discussions about media contracts

if Alabama plays north Texas state at home in a buy in game in 2030 and Florida plays FAU in a buy in game in 2030 that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partner

if Alabama plays FIU at home in 2031 for a buy in game and Florida plays USF in 2031 for a buy in game that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

if Alabama plays Florida at Alabama in 2030 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners and then Alabama plays at Florida in 2031 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

so those additional home games are a net loss of one game a year and two games total over two years for the SEC SEC SEC media partners

in addition to that the SEC SEC SEC had a chance to sell "additional home games" of their main media partner ESPN wanted that when the SEC SEC SEC network was being created, but of course the SEC SEC SEC network is about having as much total content available as possible so having one game a year less to place on that third tier network is not of value to ESPN

and the ACC had a chance to do the same with the ACC network creation as well......but ESPN seemed to have no interest in that

not to mention the SEC SEC SEC and ACC both understand the concept of getting strength of schedule for the total CONFERENCE by beating teams from OTHER conference even if those other teams are very weak

and this concept has been proven with a mathematical study that was done on the PAC 12 with 8 or 9 conference games replacing a conference game with an OOC game equal to the WEAKEST OOC game on a teams schedule and the result was that all the teams in the conference with the exception of the weakest two with the two worst records had statistically meaningful increases in their overall strength of schedule

because of a couple of concepts that many people have a hard time grasping and that is you play many more conference games so even slight increase in wins for any member of your conference makes a large change in the strength of schedule for all members

and a the second concept that aggy especially has a hard time grasping and that is there is no loss that is better than a win no matter who you lose to vs who you win against

Content isn't measured in quantity. It's measured in quality and yes they pay more for that.

And Todge, in the SEC playing in conference is usually better than picking up just any OOC P game.

The rest of your post is pretty much Big 12 Schadenfreude. But it is what I expect.

The SEC presidents were well schooled by Mike Slive. We don't make any concession until we are paid for it and we give up nothing for free.

your post is nonsense as always

it has been proven by a study on the PAC 12 that playing more conference games hurts the strength of schedule

and anyone with a clue understands that when the SEC SEC SEC network was created and the SEC SEC SEC and ESPN extended their tier 2 agreement the SEC SEC SEC andESPN had a chance at that time to work on any compensation for additional conference games played and they did not do so

just like the ACC had that same chance with the creation of the ACC network and the extension of their deal with ESPN

plus you simply cannot understand that the CBS deal is for one game a week and a CCG it is not for one game a week, a CCG and any potential new games created by playing more conference games

further in addition to not grasping the concept that new conference games does not increase available content you do not seem to understand that the CBS rights are for one game a week that CBS gets to choose as what they believe to be the BEST game that week

so there is no additional value to be brought to that deal by playing more conference games that are (in your opinion) "more valuable" than OOC games

so there will be no change in the value of the CBS deal from fictional additional available conference games for the media partners and there will be no change in value of it from (in your opinion) "more valuable" conference games vs OOC games.....because the CBS contract is already for the single most valuable game that week so the increase (or decrease) in value of any other games does not matter because the bidder for that content still gets a choice of ONE GAME each week they feel is the most valuable

not to mention what you (and many others) cannot grasp is SEC SEC SEC conference games have value based on the rankings of the teams in the conference and those rankings year in and year out are easier to maintain because of getting more WINS for many conference members over weak OOC teams and by the scheduling of late season D1-AA games that allow the SEC SEC SEC teams to get a large number of wins late in the season and stay even or even move up in the polls while other conferences are beating up on each other and dropping teams in the polls

again the scheduling strength has been proven by a study on the PAC 12.....but it involves maths and logic so it is beyond you and many others and would be looked at as schadenfreude
12-14-2019 06:33 PM
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Post: #133
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 05:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Like I always preach:

8 team playoff is pretty sound -- but it takes away the amount of teams (12) being able to play in Big $ Bowls. You're reducing that by 50%.

The second big problem: Top G5 ain't getting an auto-bid for an 8-team playoff. At best, a somewhat lenient Chance for it -- compared to when there was 10 "BCS" bowls. Basically, said G5 Champ would have to be better than one of the P5 champs who got an auto-bid (or ranked in Top 10-12). On average, expect 1 out of 4-5 years a G5 getting in. That's a blow to the Elite Game situation. And yes, with an 8-team playoff, these are going to be the ONLY "Elite" games. Again, 50% less teams involved, in this 130-team football division. A lot of Resistance against it.

That's why I say just changing up the current 12-team BCS/NY bowl situation --> 12 team playoff where the Top 4 get a bye.

16-team conferences over time is doable. But remember, it's going to be done by their own volition. B12 lost a couple teams and isn't in a super-hurry to refill (although they will in due time).

But ALL conferences being 16? No. Basically, you'd be going from 130 FBS teams -> 157-160 teams (depends on if Ind teams join to some degree). I don't think there's a desire to import even More FCS teams into FBS. But in 2050? Yeah, I could see that. Assuming CFB flourishes well, and doesn't falter a bit due to injuries & people joining due to that stuff (as present time seems to indicate).

No need to reduce participation in the big bowls to 8. 4 of the NY6 bowls will be quarter final sites. The other two will double host. During the NY6 cycle they will host the 4 highest ranked non-playoff teams. Later in January they host the playoff semi finals. This is a similar set up up to when each year a BCS bowl would double host with their normal bowl and then the title game.
12-14-2019 11:08 PM
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Post: #134
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
I am not going to split hairs over 8 conference games or 9 but every P5 school ought to be playing 10 P games annually.

5 home P games
5 road P games
2 home G5 buy games (these really need to be limited to Sept only)

You can still have your 7 game home schedule.
12-14-2019 11:16 PM
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Post: #135
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 06:33 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 06:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 06:14 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 04:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  but they are really not that aligned

the Big 10 moved to 9 conference games (then expressed some regret about it after the first year) and then started talking about all conferences playing 9 conference games and the SEC SEC SEC gave a hard no as did the ACC

this in spite of the fact that many teams in the ACC would like to play an additional conference game for the "rivalry factor" and two ACC teams played each other this year in the "OOC"

but the overall leadership (unlike the Big 12) understands the detriment to the conference that an additional conference game brings

the SEC SEC SEC was fully against the change in the CCG rules while the Big 10 was OK with them as long as they could insert language to screw the ACC......the SEC SEC SEC still voted against that language and any change to CCG rules

so they are not at all aligned on those two major issues

now with playoff expansion the SEC SEC SEC MIGHT be for it, but it will depend on what they think it means for their chances to get two teams in many years and they will probably work to make sure there is language that specifically allows even three teams from one conference to get in and will surely be against any language that would prevent three teams from the same conference

1. The reason the ACC and SEC have not moved to 9 conference games is unlike the Big 10 in their last negotiations for rights money with FOX the SEC and ACC have not sold the value of that 9th conference game. The SEC might with CBS who wants to up content by a couple of games, or with whoever wins the bid. The Big 10 had that in their valuation for the last contract. The ACC won't approach that matter, unless voluntarily, until 2037.

2. Sankey has come out against CFP expansion period.


the number of conference games played does not increase the amount of content available to any media partner

in fact there is a good chance it would decrease it because it limits the number of OOC games that teams can buy in a guaranteed home game with no return game to the opponent the next season

playing additional conference games will not have any effect on the number of games available for CBS or anyone that bids on that content

there is only one game a week and the CCG available for bid and playing more conference games does not change that fact

people never seem to grasp this concept in discussions about media contracts

if Alabama plays north Texas state at home in a buy in game in 2030 and Florida plays FAU in a buy in game in 2030 that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partner

if Alabama plays FIU at home in 2031 for a buy in game and Florida plays USF in 2031 for a buy in game that is two games owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

if Alabama plays Florida at Alabama in 2030 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners and then Alabama plays at Florida in 2031 that is one game owned by the SEC SEC SEC media partners

so those additional home games are a net loss of one game a year and two games total over two years for the SEC SEC SEC media partners

in addition to that the SEC SEC SEC had a chance to sell "additional home games" of their main media partner ESPN wanted that when the SEC SEC SEC network was being created, but of course the SEC SEC SEC network is about having as much total content available as possible so having one game a year less to place on that third tier network is not of value to ESPN

and the ACC had a chance to do the same with the ACC network creation as well......but ESPN seemed to have no interest in that

not to mention the SEC SEC SEC and ACC both understand the concept of getting strength of schedule for the total CONFERENCE by beating teams from OTHER conference even if those other teams are very weak

and this concept has been proven with a mathematical study that was done on the PAC 12 with 8 or 9 conference games replacing a conference game with an OOC game equal to the WEAKEST OOC game on a teams schedule and the result was that all the teams in the conference with the exception of the weakest two with the two worst records had statistically meaningful increases in their overall strength of schedule

because of a couple of concepts that many people have a hard time grasping and that is you play many more conference games so even slight increase in wins for any member of your conference makes a large change in the strength of schedule for all members

and a the second concept that aggy especially has a hard time grasping and that is there is no loss that is better than a win no matter who you lose to vs who you win against

Content isn't measured in quantity. It's measured in quality and yes they pay more for that.

And Todge, in the SEC playing in conference is usually better than picking up just any OOC P game.

The rest of your post is pretty much Big 12 Schadenfreude. But it is what I expect.

The SEC presidents were well schooled by Mike Slive. We don't make any concession until we are paid for it and we give up nothing for free.

your post is nonsense as always

it has been proven by a study on the PAC 12 that playing more conference games hurts the strength of schedule

and anyone with a clue understands that when the SEC SEC SEC network was created and the SEC SEC SEC and ESPN extended their tier 2 agreement the SEC SEC SEC andESPN had a chance at that time to work on any compensation for additional conference games played and they did not do so

just like the ACC had that same chance with the creation of the ACC network and the extension of their deal with ESPN

plus you simply cannot understand that the CBS deal is for one game a week and a CCG it is not for one game a week, a CCG and any potential new games created by playing more conference games

further in addition to not grasping the concept that new conference games does not increase available content you do not seem to understand that the CBS rights are for one game a week that CBS gets to choose as what they believe to be the BEST game that week

so there is no additional value to be brought to that deal by playing more conference games that are (in your opinion) "more valuable" than OOC games

so there will be no change in the value of the CBS deal from fictional additional available conference games for the media partners and there will be no change in value of it from (in your opinion) "more valuable" conference games vs OOC games.....because the CBS contract is already for the single most valuable game that week so the increase (or decrease) in value of any other games does not matter because the bidder for that content still gets a choice of ONE GAME each week they feel is the most valuable

not to mention what you (and many others) cannot grasp is SEC SEC SEC conference games have value based on the rankings of the teams in the conference and those rankings year in and year out are easier to maintain because of getting more WINS for many conference members over weak OOC teams and by the scheduling of late season D1-AA games that allow the SEC SEC SEC teams to get a large number of wins late in the season and stay even or even move up in the polls while other conferences are beating up on each other and dropping teams in the polls

again the scheduling strength has been proven by a study on the PAC 12.....but it involves maths and logic so it is beyond you and many others and would be looked at as schadenfreude

The only thing nonsensical around here is your tunnel vision drivel which you spew with paper daggers for arguments every time you post.

1. The PAC got paid for extra conference games it was the only way they got a raise that cycle of contracts. Now the Big 10 got a bigger raise than the nice raise they would have gotten anyway when they agreed to 9 conference games.

The content value is in losing one Rent-a-kill game out of the 4 that the Big 10 annually started the season with in days gone by. You better believe that networks would rather have the TV draw of even a Rutgers playing Michigan than a Michigan playing a Middle Tennessee State.

So yeah playing more conference games means more losses for conference teams. But if you get paid to do it and you need cash it is what it is.

If the SEC is going to do that they are going to have to get a big payday because a home game is worth between 5-7 million to the average SEC school in gate, concessions, rented tailgate spaces, etc, depending on the school and its stadium capacity.

2. When the SEC renegotiated it was for adding Texas A&M and Missouri it was not during a contract period. The only thing necessary for the raise were the additions and the market subscriptions added to the SECN's payouts a year later. When the SEC last renewed with ESPN adding extra conference games wasn't even a topic for conversation. So bogus argument on your part and ditto for the ACC whose contract also got renegotiated and extended following Louisville's addition and the signing of the GOR.

3. If you add a conference game you add 7 more conference games. CBS doesn't broadcast many SEC non conference games. We were in week 2 of a year starting with a week 0 before CBS even showed a game this year. They would like to have some weekends where they show two. If the SEC adds a 9th conference game and gives them 7 more games from which to select 2 both ESPN and CBS get better content. It's the SECN that gets fewer games. Big deal. The payout is better per game for those broadcast over the networks. But if that ever happens we'll have to get a nice bump in pay to make it so. And we are about to get a whopper within the next 2 years.

4. What you don't grasp is that some schools get a large national audience without having to have a top ranking. Texas is the poster child for this, and Michigan illustrates this in years when they aren't top 10. Well Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, L.S.U., Florida, and even lowly Tennessee grabs the audiences as well. Content is more about brand vs brand than rank vs rank although the latter does add. But a #1 ranked Baylor playing a #14 Oklahoma State won't get the same audience as unranked Florida State playing Miami, or unranked Tennessee playing South Carolina. So spare me your anecdotal evidence created in your own mind to suit your own purposes.

Concessions by conferences with the largest national draws (think SEC and Big 10) come at a price. When they pay enough we'll consider changes to the format. That's quite a bit of difference from conferences who make concessions because they have to try to keep up, like the PAC, and conferences that have to schedule more degree of difficulty because there is no national interest in 7 of their 10 schools like the Big 12.

Obviously you don't grasp that the CBS contract will be renewed or finalized with a competitor of theirs by 2022 from all accounts down here. If they want more games there's two ways to meet their demands. Add another conference game (since they aren't buying the cheap wins for a national broadcast) or add more schools.

I don't thing the SEC will sell another conference game this time. I don think they would consider expansion if the right schools were available.

The SEC will command a much higher contract value this time because the old contract is so very dated, the SEC afternoon 2:30 slot is the best rated in the CFB industry, our schools lead the nation in TV ratings, lead the nation in % of households within our footprint that watch which is important to advertisers, and because we have the most brand vs brand football of any conference in the nation as it now stands.

The report on the Finebaum show yesterday was that the next contract will be the biggest ever for a conference. We'll await the details.

And Todge, the only problem with comprehension is that you, like Buckaineer, only hear what you want to hear and only spout things favorable to the Big 12. It's tedious, intentionally misleading, willfully obtuse, and usually written in an insulting manner which will meet with the same outcome as your previous stints on this board.
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2019 12:50 AM by JRsec.)
12-15-2019 12:36 AM
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Post: #136
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 05:51 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:No it doesn’t, not if you do it correctly.

I'm talking about the number of TEAMS. 12->8 is losing actually 1/3rd of the teams (my bad). Going with 8 instead of the current 12, you'd need to add 50% more to back to where you were.

Still, a big drop. The other 4 teams would be playing in one of those non-"BCS" NY/NYE bowls instead.

What I’m talking about is exactly the same as we have now, just throwing in the first round at home sites the week after CCGs. The losers can go to the other bowls around NYD.
12-15-2019 07:31 AM
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Post: #137
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
Once again- If the playoffs expand, that does not mean access will be any easier. The Big Ten, SEC, etc.. can divide their conferences to ensure more of their teams make the playoff.

Schools with athletic budgets of $65-$110 million are not going to jeopardize their revenue for schools with a $20 million budget.
12-15-2019 07:37 AM
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Post: #138
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 01:40 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 12:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 11:32 AM)esayem Wrote:  Idk, 12 seemed to work quite well. The ACC was the first to go to 14 and started all this garbage.

SEC beat them to it by a few weeks. See the SU fan's thread: https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-890292.html

It is all about conference networks on a forced pay model that is going away. They made "100 year decisions" on a 15 year product delivery model.

And the SEC did just fine with A&M no matter what model we move to. The additions by the Big 10 (Rutgers and Maryland) and the ACC (Syracuse and Pitt) and the disposition of Missouri by the SEC may be market additions that don't pan out in the long haul. But no school is getting kicked out of any of those conferences and I sincerely doubt the SEC is handicapped in anyway when the next rights deal to replace or renew the CBS contract is completed.

While I agree that no school is going to get kicked out of their conference home, I can see instances where individual schools may enter a transfer portal to move to another conference home.
If the Big 12 comes out of 2025 unscathed, Missouri and Nebraska are possibilities to transfer back (perhaps Colorado too) or Missouri may entertain a move to the B1G.
FSU might have to look toward the SEC to regain their lost mojo, while Kentucky and Vanderbilt might find better cultural fits in another conference.
As long as the networks can increase their profits regardless of the configurations, they are apt to help rather than hinder these moves.

Missouri will stay put for no other reason than with the death of the market footprint pay model they offer little in the way of content value to the Big 10. And the Big 10 didn't take them in 2010 for a variety of reasons not the least of which was that the Big 10 already penetrated both the Kansas City and St. Louis TV markets.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky aren't leaving the SEC either. If they were going to they would have done it before the SEC became an economic giant, not after.

Nobody is returning to the Big 12. Nebraska athletic supporters might wish to do so but the President and faculty certainly don't and a return to the Big 12 for them would not only mean a downgrade in academic company, but much less revenue as they are now receiving full shares of Big 10 money.

So no X, I just don't see that kind of movement. And FSU's problems are deeper than just athletic performance as there is an apparent divergence of vision between boosters and administration.

Kansas was/is set to start $350 Million in improvements to their football facility which they only fill at about 50% of capacity. Even with $20 million more in B1G media money, would that be a good investment if attendance does not improve? Add home games against Missouri and Nebraska and that $20 million difference shrinks rapidly.
Missouri only draws about 70% capacity and has those must see games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and South Carolina on it's schedule. If you replaced those three with Iowa State, Nebraska and Kansas do you think you would sell more or less tickets for home games? Conference media income is but a small part of what contributes to the bottom line of athletic revenue.

How much of Vanderbilt's SEC money will they have to spend to upgrade their football facility so that their conference mates will stop complaining? How much more would they have to spend on other athletics if they weren't trying to compete at the SEC level in football?

In an internal study; the UNC athletic department determined that to be able to compete in the SEC in football, Carolina would have to eliminate 7 of our 28 sports and dedicate all of those resources to football just to be competitive and that was before we reduced our stadium capacity from 63,000 to 52,000.

Sometimes big money comes at a cost. Would Missouri or Nebraska be better off in the Big 12? Probably.

Would a school increase revenue if they won more and could become competitive in their own conference? Would the fans open their wallets wider, buy more tickets, t-shirts, and other paraphernalia?

Income is influenced by who and where you play, fan interest and rivalry not by how much a conference can distribute to a team.
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2019 08:51 AM by XLance.)
12-15-2019 08:41 AM
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Post: #139
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
(12-14-2019 05:23 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(12-14-2019 05:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Like I always preach:

8 team playoff is pretty sound -- but it takes away the amount of teams (12) being able to play in Big $ Bowls. You're reducing that by 50%.
And yes, with an 8-team playoff, these are going to be the ONLY "Elite" games.

No it doesn’t, not if you do it correctly.

Have the first round at home sites the week after CCGs. That’s the only way you’re going to guarantee sellouts. Then have the big bowl selection show that next day on a Sunday, although a lot of them will be almost determined, it’s still “must see TV”.

They're more interested in TV$ than sellouts or fans. Your way is logical, but its not going to happen. That's not prime TV watching time with people shopping. Also, the bowls seem to have pictures of college execs. They have an irrational desire to preserve that system. Your way will diminish the bowls. Having the NYD bowls being quarterfinals will enhance the bowls.
12-15-2019 08:59 AM
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Post: #140
RE: Delaney: 16 team conferences? 8 team playoff?
Rank matters more than name brand. Baylor-Oklahoma is up there this year. You don't see much USC, Nebraska, FSU or Miami at the top of the TV rankings.

Now rank with name brand is what creates great ratings.

So while TR has a point about that 9th conference game perhaps slightly depressing average rankings, JR has a point in that schools get paid for better content. And more conference matchups creates more opportunities for those games with great ratings.
12-15-2019 09:31 AM
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