(12-11-2019 08:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I still think it will still be CFP Committee picking top 8. If a champion is not in the top 8, they don't belong.

The CFP has repeatedly proven they have no idea who is #1. What makes you think they know who the top 8 are?

(12-11-2019 08:51 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Think it will be a huge mistake (I think its under-appreciated how the current system produces national rather than just regional interest games every week), but think Big Ten will support given couple yeats without the Big Ten involved. The SEC is the big question in my mind. Might be harder there given already getting a team or two in and potentially having more regularly might actually hurt SEC regular season race more than others.

Should it come about, I hope at least Delaney pushes for a prominent role for Rose Bowl in it. It will be too devalued if left outside the playoff.

SEC has generally been in favor of it. Their main objection is whether it triggers pay for play (not necessarily an inconsequential objection). Sankey is just spouting the same stuff the BCS head said until the day it got supplanted.

(12-12-2019 10:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 10:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 10:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 09:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm thinking that if Delany is pondering both 16 team conferences and an 8 team playoff he is envisioning four power conferences with the first round of the playoff including the 8 P4 division winners.

This presupposes a breakaway of the 4 surviving P conferences where each conferences 2 division winners comprise the 8 team playoff. And it also presupposes that the networks pay those conferences significantly more money than their CCG's get right now in order to accomplish their acquiescence in the matter.

IMO, this is the only pathway to the 8 team CFP model because it does not hamper, but enhances the odds that any team makes it in thereby paving the way for the move to 16 without negatively impacting the usual suspects in each existing conference. And because it makes it clear to each conference that they will be involved every year which is the buy in for the less dominant conferences.

I simply don't see the SEC or Big 10 giving up their CCG's unless they know they get two in and the money is better.

Now whether that winds up being 4 champs and 4 at large, or 8 division champs is a different matter.

Pretty much. Or some divisionless conference scheduling model in which the top two teams from each conference get in. Perhaps the top teams from each conference play the second teams from another conference in the first round, so it's possible for a single conference to have two teams in the semifinals.

I would be good with going divisionless and taking the two top teams and I particularly like having each conferences #2 play someone else's #1. I guess the only rub I would have with what the networks are likely to suggest, is that I would prefer seeing those first round games played at the home stadium of the higher ranked school instead of adding a third major travel expense to the fans by utilizing only the bowls. Having the semis and finals in the bowls isn't optimal now, but it is established. Add a third trip to it and the attendance at the quarter finals would be dismal. Put it in a home venue for the higher ranked school and you have a winner. And it affords regional access to some round of the playoffs for college football fans in general.

Schools want conference championships and they want to control as much money as they can. CCGs going away are about as likely as a 32 team tournament in football.

(12-12-2019 04:10 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 05:22 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 05:12 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Big Ten's studied 16, 18, and 20-member models, specific schools

Source?

Nothing new. Just, older for the 'net. Like, 2012-13. Some of the old url's don't work anymore.

Here's something on the "studied schools." The original piece isn't freely available. Back in 2013, Fowler posted something on Delany talking seriously with six schools.

Not the direct quote, but a reference to Gee's comments on "super-conferences" that could be 16-20 members, and that the Big Ten had "opportunities" to push the footprint. I wish I could find the quote from one of the Athletic Directors in the Big Ten (I think it was Michigan State?) who literally said they studied models up to 20 schools. Gee's comments, take them or leave them, but he wasn't the only one who referenced a larger Big Ten.

It was the MSU ad

If they go to 8, I think they should award 1 if the 2 at-large spots to the winner of a play-in game, played the same weekend as the CCGs. Rather than throwing 2 CCG losers into the playoff, make money off another game between the best 2 non division winners. Last year, this play-in would have been Norte Dame’s 13th data point, before that it would have done the same for 11-1 Alabama.

Adding a 6th play-in game (counting the P5 CCGs) also reduces the weight the committee carries in picking the playoff teams. And, if the quarterfinals are played in the NYD bowls, all the bowl contracts will reduce the committee’s role to picking the best G5, the final at-large, and some bowl pairings. Maybe then we can be done with the CFP Rankings.

(12-12-2019 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2019 08:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I still think it will still be CFP Committee picking top 8. If a champion is not in the top 8, they don't belong.

The CFP has repeatedly proven they have no idea who is #1. What makes you think they know who the top 8 are?

Rankings are rankings. Results on the field don’t change how/why they were ranked as they were by the committee. Also, just because no #1 has won the CFP yet, that doesn’t prove your assertion. The sample size is minuscule. Let’s give this format a few more years, the next 5 winners could be the top seed.

(12-12-2019 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2019 08:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I still think it will still be CFP Committee picking top 8. If a champion is not in the top 8, they don't belong.

The CFP has repeatedly proven they have no idea who is #1. What makes you think they know who the top 8 are?

The point of the CFP seedings isn't to predict who will win the playoffs.

(12-11-2019 08:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I still think it will still be CFP Committee picking top 8. If a champion is not in the top 8, they don't belong.

I agree.

Heck, if someone really is concerned about conference champs in the playoffs, it's worth noting that based on CFP rankings, in the past six year 29 out of 30 of the P5 champs would have made the playoffs. So it's unlikely that any P5 champ will be left out unless they don't deserve it, and if they don't deserve it they don't belong just because they are a P5 champ. Heck look at UVA in the Orange Bowl, that's the kind of thing that can happen when P5 are given things automatically.

(12-13-2019 12:21 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2019 08:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I still think it will still be CFP Committee picking top 8. If a champion is not in the top 8, they don't belong.

The CFP has repeatedly proven they have no idea who is #1. What makes you think they know who the top 8 are?

Rankings are rankings. Results on the field don’t change how/why they were ranked as they were by the committee. Also, just because no #1 has won the CFP yet, that doesn’t prove your assertion. The sample size is minuscule. Let’s give this format a few more years, the next 5 winners could be the top seed.

It proves to me that any team that can get into the playoff can win the playoff.

The same would hold for a 5+1+2 if the powers go that route. That is because you are talking at worst a Top 20 G5 team. A top 20 SEC team for example has a legit chance to knock off a #1 SEC team and a preview of that game would be analyzed to death on ESPN.

Its a very different situation than a 16 seed in the NCAA tournament where they've only beaten a #1 seed one time in 140 tries.

I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

(12-13-2019 09:29 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

The National Championship game is all the way on Jan 13th this year. The first major bowls are between Xmas and NYD, if not NYD itself.

So where do you schedule all these games and travel unless you push the bowls back a week, pre Xmas? That's why you cannot incorporate the bowls into an 8 team playoff. You run out of weekends.

If there is an 8 team playoff, you have to sacrifice Army Navy and give student athletes a pass for Fall Finals because that week would be gone for playoff preparation. At the very least, you have to make that first round campus games for the top 4 schools as a reprieve for students and alumni.

If you keep Army Navy weekend clear as is, the semifinals have to be pushed to the middle of the week on the first week of January (after the four quarterfinal NY6 Bowls), otherwise the semis go head to head with ESPN and NFL WC weekend.

If you extend the season any longer, the season basically becomes the NFL in terms of length and months. The fundamental problem with the 8 team playoff is not preserving the meaning of the regular season. It is the travel and scheduling, and finding the appropriate TV slots.

(12-13-2019 10:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 09:29 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

The National Championship game is all the way on Jan 13th this year. The first major bowls are between Xmas and NYD, if not NYD itself.

That tells me they are more the comfortable pushing the post season out 1 more week for the cash.

(12-13-2019 10:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 10:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 09:29 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

The National Championship game is all the way on Jan 13th this year. The first major bowls are between Xmas and NYD, if not NYD itself.

That tells me they are more the comfortable pushing the post season out 1 more week for the cash.

It tells me they haven't actually factored in an extra round and travel between all of that along with conflicting NFL playoff games. So are they gonna go all the way out to MLK Holiday now, and play Semis on Thursday and Friday night?

(12-13-2019 10:14 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 10:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 10:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 09:29 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

The National Championship game is all the way on Jan 13th this year. The first major bowls are between Xmas and NYD, if not NYD itself.

That tells me they are more the comfortable pushing the post season out 1 more week for the cash.

It tells me they haven't actually factored in an extra round and travel between all of that along with conflicting NFL playoff games. So are they gonna go all the way out to MLK Holiday now, and play Semis on Thursday and Friday night?

They could do a double header on Friday night.

Monday night 10 days later for the NC.

(12-13-2019 12:21 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(12-12-2019 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2019 08:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I still think it will still be CFP Committee picking top 8. If a champion is not in the top 8, they don't belong.

The CFP has repeatedly proven they have no idea who is #1. What makes you think they know who the top 8 are?

Rankings are rankings. Results on the field don’t change how/why they were ranked as they were by the committee. Also, just because no #1 has won the CFP yet, that doesn’t prove your assertion. The sample size is minuscule. Let’s give this format a few more years, the next 5 winners could be the top seed.

There's a huge sample size-the whole history of polls going back to 1936. Look at how often the consensus #1 team has been beaten in bowls. Remember the unbeatable Miami team taking on Ohio St.? How about the greatest team ever USC taking on Texas? How about 2006 Ohio St. when the question according to the experts was whether they should have a rematch against Michigan and Ohio St. got destroyed by Florida. And in these 5 years, the top team has often not just been beaten, but been dominated. In the BCS era, 2007, 2011 and 2012 #1 not only got beaten, but got beaten decisively.

The point is proven beyond a doubt. If you want to talk about small sample sizes, look at a group of people in a room trying to evaluate teams on 12 or 13 games playing totally different schedules. Your sample error is huge. That's why statisticians make adjustments on any sample size less than 21.

If you think the AP, Coaches, CFP or computer polls are some scientifically accurate method of ranking teams, you are ignorant of statistics and college football history. I'd throw in some limited understanding of psychology as well.

(12-13-2019 10:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 09:29 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

The National Championship game is all the way on Jan 13th this year. The first major bowls are between Xmas and NYD, if not NYD itself.

So where do you schedule all these games and travel unless you push the bowls back a week, pre Xmas? That's why you cannot incorporate the bowls into an 8 team playoff. You run out of weekends.

If there is an 8 team playoff, you have to sacrifice Army Navy and give student athletes a pass for Fall Finals because that week would be gone for playoff preparation. At the very least, you have to make that first round campus games for the top 4 schools as a reprieve for students and alumni.

If you keep Army Navy weekend clear as is, the semifinals have to be pushed to the middle of the week on the first week of January (after the four quarterfinal NY6 Bowls), otherwise the semis go head to head with ESPN and NFL WC weekend.

If you extend the season any longer, the season basically becomes the NFL in terms of length and months. The fundamental problem with the 8 team playoff is not preserving the meaning of the regular season. It is the travel and scheduling, and finding the appropriate TV slots.

All of this stuff is just excuses except for your last point, the key point. The BIG issue is finding TV slots that don't compete with the NFL.

(12-11-2019 06:56 PM)LSU04_08 Wrote:  

(12-11-2019 03:04 PM)TIGER-PAUL Wrote:  Big Ten commish Jim Delany on if we’ll ever see a 16-team FBS conference:
“I don’t think it’s outside the realm (of possibility)”
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy

25m
Big Ten commish Jim Delany if he would favor an 8-team
@CFBPlayoff:
“I could be under the right circumstances”

Can the SEC trade South Carolina for Clemson?

The SEC trading SC for Clemson would accomplish exactly nothing. If this year's best teams were put into one conference, half of them would be below average next year in that new "best" conference, and some team would end up in last place. Money aside, how much satisfaction does a school enjoy if its team occupies last place in the "best" conference? How much satisfaction would it enjoy if it were a perennial bottom-feeder in the best conference? How much recognition and respect would that bottom-feeder garner as compared with a team that finishes first in a supposedly inferior conference?

For the SEC to have either Clemson or SC or both makes sense from a geographic standpoint, which is what should inform conference alignments anyway, but no combination of shuffling those two schools around would make the SEC better. When the dust settled at the end of each season, there'd still be some powerhouse at the top and some also-ran at the bottom.

Each year, the very best three-year-old colts race in the Kentucky Derby. Does anyone other than their owners remember which horses finished last? How about second-to-last or even in the middle of the pack?

(12-13-2019 10:04 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-13-2019 09:29 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see where the logic is for making the playoff all bowl hosted.

Quarterfinals (4 bowls)
Semifinals (2 bowls)
National Championship (1 bowl)

This way the NYD bowls can be rotated into a 7 year contract to each host the national championship game. It would require of course the addition of one more bowl game to the NYD mix (Citrus Bowl?) to make it workable.

It might be the way to squeeze the most value out of the system.

The National Championship game is all the way on Jan 13th this year. The first major bowls are between Xmas and NYD, if not NYD itself.

So where do you schedule all these games and travel unless you push the bowls back a week, pre Xmas? That's why you cannot incorporate the bowls into an 8 team playoff. You run out of weekends.

If there is an 8 team playoff, you have to sacrifice Army Navy and give student athletes a pass for Fall Finals because that week would be gone for playoff preparation. At the very least, you have to make that first round campus games for the top 4 schools as a reprieve for students and alumni.

If you keep Army Navy weekend clear as is, the semifinals have to be pushed to the middle of the week on the first week of January (after the four quarterfinal NY6 Bowls), otherwise the semis go head to head with ESPN and NFL WC weekend.

If you extend the season any longer, the season basically becomes the NFL in terms of length and months. The fundamental problem with the 8 team playoff is not preserving the meaning of the regular season. It is the travel and scheduling, and finding the appropriate TV slots.

I see two reasonable options:

1) NY6 Quarterfinal Bowls played the Saturday before New Year's Day. NY6 Semifinal Bowls played the following Saturday or Monday that is at least one week later. This year, the Quarterfinal Bowls would be played on December 28 and the Semifinal Bowls could be played on January 4. National Championship game could still be played on Monday, January 13.

EDIT: There are just two NFL Wild Card games on January 4, so you could find the TV slots for the CFP semifinal games. OR, play them on Monday, January 6.

2) NY6 Quarterfinal Bowl are played on New Year's Day. The semifinal bowls are played on the first Friday, Saturday or Monday that is at least one week after New Year's. The national championship game is held on the first Monday that is at least one week after the semifinals. So, this year, the four Quarterfinal Bowls are held on January 1 and the semifinals could be held on Saturday, January 11. The national championship game could be held on Monday, January 20.

EDIT: There are just two NFL Divisional playoff games on January 11, so you find the TV slots for the CFP games. Or, play one on Friday night and one on Saturday, around the NFL schedule. Or, play on Monday, January 13.

Just one week later fro the national championship game and you move the NY6 bowls back to New Year's Day.

I think if went to 8, best way would be to have bowls as quarterfinals on New Years with as a traditional a setup a possible. Then do straight seeding 1 through 4 with the winners. Rather than bowls hosting semi-finals, have one location hold both semi-finals and championship. Make a big deal about being there for a week.

(12-13-2019 04:32 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think if went to 8, best way would be to have bowls as quarterfinals on New Years with as a traditional a setup a possible. Then do straight seeding 1 through 4 with the winners. Rather than bowls hosting semi-finals, have one location hold both semi-finals and championship. Make a big deal about being there for a week.

The only problem I see with this concept is the limited number of cities with the available accommodations for nearly 200,000 people pouring in for the experience or hope to be a part of the experience in the bars and streets. It's not like a basketball final 4 where you might have 1/4 of that.

Therefore it really restricts where it could be held.