asucrutch23
Special Teams
Posts: 937
Joined: Dec 2010
Reputation: 73
I Root For: App State
Location: God's Country
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 04:50 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (11-25-2019 04:31 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: (11-25-2019 04:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (11-25-2019 02:32 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote: (11-25-2019 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote: You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.
IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.
Yep, it would be really close between a 1-loss SBC Champ App State and either:
2-loss Navy AAC Champ
2-loss Memphis AAC Champ
2-loss Cincy AAC Champ
Those 4 resumes would be extremely close.
They would certainly wait for Army-Navy in the Navy/App scenario. Any App fan who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.
Not sure that they'd wait if it's 2-loss Navy vs. 1-loss Boise, but I could see it there too.
The resumes: Rankings (CFP at 25 or better, Massey Composite otherwise, obviously as of 25 November so some may change) of teams beaten by App State winning out, Boise State winning out, and a 2-loss Navy getting to and winning the championship game vs Cincinnati, then beating Army to bring the Commander in Chief's Trophy back to Annapolis:
Team A: #30,56,67,79,91,96,100,109,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,61,107,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #19,28,29,54,82,86,90,92,113,125,FCS
Team C is Navy, with two losses to #16 and #18 rather than one loss to a #50/#73
Yeah, I think you guys would get it over us if you win out. That's why above I said I'm beginning to think the only scenario we get it is if you guys win the AAC then lose to Army.
Not sure the committee uses Massey though, and they seem to value our wins over UNC and South Carolina, even though those teams are worse than some of your conference wins. We'll just have to find out. Good luck.
I wouldn't want to bet on the committee's behavior either way...
That we can certainly agree on. If they have Navy right behind us tomorrow night, with (using Massey as you did) #75, #94, and #18 left to play, to our #100 and #30, we may be down for the count against any potential AAC resume except Navy Champ with a loss to Army.
If they leave you out completely and we're at say #22, that may give us a hint as to what they value. We're obviously watching ahead of us AND you guys behind us.
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