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OOC records: MWC vs AAC
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Native Georgian Online
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Exclamation OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(Note: in this thread, I am using “G5” to mean every FBS team which is not “P5”. I know that’s not precisely true. Close enough, IMHO)

MWC vs P5: [9-10]
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10
@Northwestern 30, UNLV 14
@LSU 42, Utah State 6
@Wake Forest 38, Utah State 35
Colorado 52, Colorado State 31 @Denver
@Arkansas 55, Colorado State 34
@Oregon 77, Nevada 6
(2OT) Minnesota 38, @Fresno State 35
@Southern Cal 31, Fresno State 23
@Notre Dame 66, New Mexico 14
@Washington 52, Hawaii 20

MWC vs G5: [6-7]
@Boise State 14, Marshall 7
Nevada 37, @UTEP 21
Wyoming 23, @Texas State 14
San Diego State 31, @New Mexico State 10
@New Mexico 55, New Mexico State 52
Fresno State 30, @New Mexico State 17
26th October: San Jose State @Army
02nd November: BYU @Utah State
02nd November: Army @Air Force
30th November: Army @Hawaii
30th November: BYU @San Diego State
Arkansas State 43, @UNLV 17
@BYU 28, Boise State 25
@Navy 34, Air Force 25
Tulsa 34, @San Jose State 16
@Tulsa 24, Wyoming 21
Toledo 41, @Colorado State 35
@Liberty 17, New Mexico 10

MWC vs. all FBS opponents: 15-17
MWC vs. all FCS opponents: 12-0
MWC vs. all opponents: 27-17
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 07:59 AM by Native Georgian.)
09-22-2019 09:54 AM
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Native Georgian Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
AAC vs. P5: [6-12]
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10
@Temple 20, Maryland 17
@UCF 45, Stanford 27
SMU 41, @TCU 38
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2
16th November: Navy @Notre Dame
@Michigan State 28, Tulsa 7
Wisconsin 49, @South Florida 0
@N.C. State 34, East Carolina 6
@Oklahoma 49, Houston 31
@Ohio State 42, Cincinnati 0
@Georgia Tech 14, South Florida 10
Illinois 31, @UConn 23
@Auburn 24, Tulane 6
Washington State 31, @Houston 24
Oklahoma State 40, @Tulsa 21
@Indiana 38, UConn 3
@Pittsburgh 35, UCF 34

AAC vs. G5: [16-1]
@Tulane 42, Florida International 14
SMU 37, @Arkansas State 30
UCF 48, @Florida Atlantic 14
@SMU 49, North Texas 27
Tulsa 34, @San Jose State 16
@Cincinnati 35, Miami/Ohio 13
Memphis 52, @UL/Monroe 33
Memphis 42, @South Alabama 6
@SMU 47, Texas State 17
@Tulsa 24, Wyoming 21
@Navy 34, Air Force 25
Cincinnati 52, @Marshall 14
East Carolina 24, @Old Dominion 21
Houston 46, @North Texas 25
Tulane 42, @Army 33
@South Florida 27, BYU 23
26th October: UConn @UMass
14th December: Army vs. Navy @Philadelphia
@Buffalo 38, Temple 22

AAC vs. all FBS opponents: 22-13
AAC vs. all FCS opponents: 10-0
AAC vs. all opponents: 32-13
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2019 08:14 PM by Native Georgian.)
09-22-2019 10:00 AM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Kind of a shame the two conferences have only played two games against each other. I'd like to see more AAC-MWC matchups.
09-22-2019 01:53 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
I looked at who those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking.
Against "P5" the wins look about even. Best win among them comes from Wyoming...who lost to Tulsa head to head. Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams. The quantity, mwc's three more wins, basically came against dregs (those three fall nicely below the commonly held win against UCLA).

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #21 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #35 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #39 AAC
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #47 mwc
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #56 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #57 mwc
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #60 AAC
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #69 AAC
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #75 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #75 mwc
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #81 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #98 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #105 mwc

AAC average MC ranking of 5 defeated "P5" opponents: 55.6
mwc average MC ranking of 8 defeated "P5" opponents: 67.5
mwc average MC ranking of best 5 defeated "P5" opponents: 51.2

As far as losses to "P5" teams go, don't hold the AAC's losses against them - four came against top ten teams. (Two were well-contested but two were blowouts). If you expand that aperture to top twenty-five teams, you account for half the AAC losses to "P5" teams. Only three of the mwc's losses to "P5" teams were to top twenty-five teams (and all three were blowouts).
"Bad" losses to "P5" teams look even to me - where do you draw that line?

mwc vs AAC losses to "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Ohio State 42, Cincinnati 0 #3 AAC
@Auburn 24, Tulane 6 #6 AAC
Wisconsin 49, @South Florida 0 #7 AAC
@Oklahoma 49, Houston 31 #8 AAC
@Notre Dame 66, New Mexico 14 #9 mwc
@Oregon 77, Nevada 6 #12 mwc
@Washington 52, Hawaii 20 #15 mwc
@Michigan State 28, Tulsa 7 #19 AAC
Oklahoma State 40, @Tulsa 21 #23 AAC
@Southern Cal 31, Fresno State 23 #28 mwc
@Wake Forest 38, Utah State 35 #29 mwc
Washington State 31, @Houston 24 #38 AAC
(2OT) Minnesota 38, @Fresno State 35 #42 mwc
@Pittsburgh 35, UCF 34 #44 AAC
Colorado 52, Colorado State 31 @Denver #47 mwc
@N.C. State 34, East Carolina 6 #53 AAC
@Indiana 38, UConn 3 #55 AAC
@Northwestern 30, UNLV 14 #71 mwc
Illinois 31, @UConn 23 #93 AAC
@Georgia Tech 14, South Florida 10 #94 AAC
@Arkansas 55, Colorado State 34 #105 mwc


Against non-contract-bowl-conference teams, AAC looks superior in overall record(9-1 vs 5-4) and in head-to-head (2-0 with AF@Navy still to come). Only one win is above the overall median of FBS, but the AAC dominates the top of the listing of "G5" victories ordered by opponents' rankings and the mwc the bottom. Losses to "G5" teams - all the mwc losses were to opponents ranked higher than Buffalo, holding the one "G5" win vs the AAC, against a good AAC team; however, half the mwc losses are to AAC Tulsa.

mwc and AAC "G5" victories, by opponents' Massey Composite ranking
@Tulsa 24, Wyoming 21 #63 AAC
@Boise State 14, Marshall 7 #67 mwc
@SMU 49, North Texas 27 #82 AAC
SMU 37, @Arkansas State 30 #83 AAC
UCF 48, @Florida Atlantic 14 #89 AAC
@Cincinnati 35, Miami/Ohio 13#107 AAC
Tulsa 34, @San Jose State 16 #108 AAC
@Tulane 42, Florida International 14 #117 AAC
@SMU 47, Texas State 17 #119
Wyoming 23, @Texas State 14 #119 mwc
Memphis 42, @South Alabama 6 #123 AAC
San Diego State 31, @New Mexico State 10 #126 mwc
@New Mexico 55, New Mexico State 52 #126 mwc
Nevada 37, @UTEP 21 #127 mwc

Edited to add Average ranking of AAC "G5" wins: 99
Edited to add Average ranking of mwc "G5" wins: 113

mwc and AAC "G5" losses, by opponents' Massey Composite ranking
Toledo 41, @Colorado State 35 #76 mwc
Tulsa 34, @San Jose State 16 #79 mwc
@Tulsa 24, Wyoming 21 #79 mwc
Arkansas State 43, @UNLV 17 #83 mwc
@Buffalo 38, Temple 22 #95 AAC
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2019 02:26 PM by slhNavy91.)
09-22-2019 08:19 PM
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Native Georgian Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-22-2019 01:53 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Kind of a shame the two conferences have only played two games against each other. I'd like to see more AAC-MWC matchups.
+1. Problem is that there’s just no proximity.

But anyway, Air Force @Navy next Saturday 05th/October. Kickoff 3:30pm ET on cable CBS Sports Network.
09-28-2019 10:44 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-28-2019 10:44 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(09-22-2019 01:53 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Kind of a shame the two conferences have only played two games against each other. I'd like to see more AAC-MWC matchups.
+1. Problem is that there’s just no proximity.

But anyway, Air Force @Navy next Saturday 05th/October. Kickoff 3:30pm ET on cable CBS Sports Network.

BEAT AIR FORCE!!!
09-28-2019 11:40 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.
(This post was last modified: 09-28-2019 11:55 PM by quo vadis.)
09-28-2019 11:55 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that? Heaven help someone post something positive about the AAC. A conference that supposedly his team is in.
09-28-2019 11:59 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.
09-29-2019 12:05 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.

well this is already week 5. While I agree with you the computers will get more accurate, they're already pretty accurate. The leads that the AAC have are quite large- 12 and 14 spots.
09-29-2019 12:09 AM
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Pony94 Offline
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OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.


Just like you, Stever never posts on the AAC board so i don’t consider either of you fanboys.
09-29-2019 12:27 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 12:27 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.


Just like you, Stever never posts on the AAC board so i don’t consider either of you fanboys.

Well in my case its not by choice, as the AAC fanboys have banned me from that board for no reason, lol.
09-29-2019 06:49 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that? Heaven help someone post something positive about the AAC. A conference that supposedly his team is in.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=790b7611aad4ee1b4c3ed0d11c...=giphy.gif]
09-29-2019 09:54 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:27 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.


Just like you, Stever never posts on the AAC board so i don’t consider either of you fanboys.

Well in my case its not by choice, as the AAC fanboys have banned me from that board for no reason, lol.

Quo, you are always welcome to talk basketball on the Big East boards. 04-cheers
09-29-2019 09:56 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 09:56 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:27 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.


Just like you, Stever never posts on the AAC board so i don’t consider either of you fanboys.

Well in my case its not by choice, as the AAC fanboys have banned me from that board for no reason, lol.

Quo, you are always welcome to talk basketball on the Big East boards. 04-cheers

Thanks mate. 04-cheers
09-29-2019 09:58 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 09:54 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that? Heaven help someone post something positive about the AAC. A conference that supposedly his team is in.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=790b7611aad4ee1b4c3ed0d11c...=giphy.gif]

sorry pal. I've said positive things about the Big East regularly. 10000000000 times more than Quo has said positively about the AAC....
09-29-2019 11:10 AM
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.

why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.

Too funny. Great use of capitals too.
09-29-2019 11:47 AM
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Native Georgian Online
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-28-2019 11:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Doesn't make sense to look at computers until after 5-6 games have been played, because until then most are using last year's data to plug holes, or the confidence intervals are too wide because of not enough data points.

Next week or the week after, we can just look at the MC conference rankings to see who is on top.
The OP is mainly just a list of scores from games already played. Computers have nothing to do with that. Another poster added in the current Massey-ratings to provide some additional context. Of course we will know more as the season progresses. Doesn’t mean there’s no reason to review the data we have so far. Strange that you would seem to have a problem with that.

(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.
(09-29-2019 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  the AAC fanboys have banned me from that board for no reason, lol.
Quo, if I were the King of the AAC Board, I would gladly allow you to post there. But I would have to say, your reputation as a self-proclaimed Voice of Reason is damaged when you claim that the AAC would benefit from allowing UConn to remain as a football-only member while playing other sports in the BE. Or when you claim that other AAC members like Cincinnati, would be better off to follow UConn’s path of withdrawing from the AAC in order to become Independent in football. Posting such nonsense is evidence that you alternate between Voice of Reason and Troll of Bitterness.
(This post was last modified: 09-29-2019 01:23 PM by Native Georgian.)
09-29-2019 01:22 PM
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 09:56 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 06:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:27 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 12:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 11:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  why am I totally unshocked that Quo would post that?

Because I am a very well-established Voice of Reason who generally sticks to facts rather than dons a fanboy hat.

What I posted is true, which is why it irks an AAC fanboy like yourself. But just be patient - if the AAC is having the best G5 year, the MC will show that in a couple of weeks.


Just like you, Stever never posts on the AAC board so i don’t consider either of you fanboys.

Well in my case its not by choice, as the AAC fanboys have banned me from that board for no reason, lol.

Quo, you are always welcome to talk basketball on the Big East boards. 04-cheers

You are also always welcomed to post on the ACC board as well.
04-cheers
09-29-2019 04:03 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(09-29-2019 01:22 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Quo, if I were the King of the AAC Board, I would gladly allow you to post there. But I would have to say, your reputation as a self-proclaimed Voice of Reason is damaged when you claim that the AAC would benefit from allowing UConn to remain as a football-only member while playing other sports in the BE. Or when you claim that other AAC members like Cincinnati, would be better off to follow UConn’s path of withdrawing from the AAC in order to become Independent in football. Posting such nonsense is evidence that you alternate between Voice of Reason and Troll of Bitterness.

I think the AAC would be better off just letting UConn keep football in the AAC. UConn is a prestigious flagship and even though they've had some bad years, that could change. IMO, booting their football out is a Bitter move by Aresco and the AAC presidents, it is hurt feelings talking not the brain talking. The AAC has done pretty well in football despite their badness, hence the boost in pay to $7m a year. Plus, keeping them obviates the hassles of applying for CCG waivers and scheduling.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure I said they would be better off to follow UConn's path, but I think it should give them pause to consider it. Thinking outside the box can open doors. A big factor for them would be if the Big East was willing to take their hoops, I'm not sure it would, and if not, then that would be a big negative to going Indy.

Only a Troll would see these beliefs as being indicative of bitterness on my part, etc. They are honest beliefs. As a USF fan, I definitely want UConn football in the AAC, and Cincy football too. Those are the two schools we have the longest histories with.

This will be the 15th straight year we've played UConn in football, and we also played them in 2000 and 2001, our first two years in FBS. Our very first win over an FBS opponent was against UConn, in October of 2000. Why do I want to lose that? I don't.

Ditto with Cincy, and obviously Cincy isn't going anywhere, but I try to look at things from their POV as well.
(This post was last modified: 09-29-2019 04:24 PM by quo vadis.)
09-29-2019 04:14 PM
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