Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Author Message
CliftonAve Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 14,972
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 519
I Root For: Extending CLF
Location:
Post: #61
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
^^ They are, but to provide the evidence Bullet asked for I simply named the MWC school with the highest recruiting ranking thus far in the 2020 class, which was actually below 7 AAC schools.
10-07-2019 10:05 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WhoseHouse? Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,255
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 115
I Root For: UH
Location:
Post: #62
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 09:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-06-2019 07:33 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  The American is now 31-13 nonconference.

30-11 if you don't count UConn.

In particular, the American West is 17-5 with four losses to teams who were ranked at the time (including two Top 10), and one more loss to a team that became ranked after the game.

But, are we supposed to count ECU's wins over ODU, Gardner Webb, and William and Mary? That's who ECU won three OOC games against.

The AAC had a bifurcated OOC campaign. Some schools played extremely tough P5 - Oklahoma, Ohio State, Auburn, and Wisconsin come to mind. On the other, the non-P5 schedule had a lot of cream filling in it. One week, the AAC wins were over Texas State, Missouri State, Miami of Ohio, and South Alabama. They've also won at least three games against FCS - HBCUs.

The 3 wins the conference has notched against the MWC all came against teams that had previously beaten P5 teams. We also beat up on the preseason C-USA favorites (Marshall, UNT, and FIU). Obviously there were some weaker games in their but what conference doesnt schedule a few cream puffs. The AAC has more than enough quality wins to stand on.
10-07-2019 10:12 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Online
Legend
*

Posts: 35,569
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 1060
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #63
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 09:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:05 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-06-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  That vs G5 record for the AAC really says they’ve separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

I think a big part of the equation for the AAC is media exposure. AAC is able to recruit at a higher level across the board because of the number of games on one of the ESPN networks throughout the weekend and occasionally on ABC. A second point, the AAC has been able to attract some good up and coming coaches because they know a good run at one of these schools can result in a big pay day down the line.

Are the recruiting services saying that? I don't recall there being much difference.

Per 247 (for the 2020 class as an example):

AAC
#47 Tulane
#48 Cincinnati
#49 Memphis
#53 East Carolina
#57 UCF
#58 USF
#67 Temple

MWC
(highest ranked) #84 AFA

2020 is kind of meaningless since we haven't even had the early signing date. And California (which MWC depends on) operates differently than Texas or Florida. Lot more late commits.

Not saying 2019 isn't similar. But 2020 doesn't tell me anything.
10-07-2019 11:02 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 35,006
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 349
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #64
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 09:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-06-2019 07:33 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  The American is now 31-13 nonconference.

30-11 if you don't count UConn.

In particular, the American West is 17-5 with four losses to teams who were ranked at the time (including two Top 10), and one more loss to a team that became ranked after the game.

But, are we supposed to count ECU's wins over ODU, Gardner Webb, and William and Mary? That's who ECU won three OOC games against.

The AAC had a bifurcated OOC campaign. Some schools played extremely tough P5 - Oklahoma, Ohio State, Auburn, and Wisconsin come to mind. On the other, the non-P5 schedule had a lot of cream filling in it. One week, the AAC wins were over Texas State, Missouri State, Miami of Ohio, and South Alabama. They've also won at least three games against FCS - HBCUs.

so looking at Sagarin's SOS right now-
AAC 78.58
MWC 82.67

Also sorry but who gives a **** about the FCS. Do believe all 12 MWC teams beat a FCS school.
10-07-2019 11:25 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Native Georgian Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 21,770
Joined: May 2008
Reputation: 561
I Root For: TULANE+GA.STATE
Location: Decatur GA
Post: #65
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 11:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  who gives a **** about the FCS. Do believe all 12 MWC teams beat a FCS school.
True. All 12 members of MWC-football played and defeated one FCS opponent this season.

Nine of the 12 AAC-members played an FCS opponent. East Carolina played 2 FCS after Virginia Tech bailed out of a scheduled game with about 8 months’ notice. (Vag. Tech played 2 FCS, as well). So, total of 10 games.
10-07-2019 11:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Captain Bearcat Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,688
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 329
I Root For: UC
Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
Post: #66
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 11:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:52 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:05 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  The improvement in recruiting is starting to take hold.

I also think the AAC is beginning to develop the impression that any of the teams (minus UConn) have a chance to win the league championship. This is something that definitely isn't the case for lower end schools in the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. So we are seeing solid 3/4 star recruits decide they want to compete at a school like Cincinnati, over being foder at a program like Purdue.

I think a big part of the equation for the AAC is media exposure. AAC is able to recruit at a higher level across the board because of the number of games on one of the ESPN networks throughout the weekend and occasionally on ABC. A second point, the AAC has been able to attract some good up and coming coaches because they know a good run at one of these schools can result in a big pay day down the line.

Are the recruiting services saying that? I don't recall there being much difference.

Per 247 (for the 2020 class as an example):

AAC
#47 Tulane
#48 Cincinnati
#49 Memphis
#53 East Carolina
#57 UCF
#58 USF
#67 Temple

MWC
(highest ranked) #84 AFA

2020 is kind of meaningless since we haven't even had the early signing date. And California (which MWC depends on) operates differently than Texas or Florida. Lot more late commits.

Not saying 2019 isn't similar. But 2020 doesn't tell me anything.

Good point. 2019 & 2018 are similar though, other than Boise:

2019 rankings for teams in the top 90:
50 - Boise (MWC)
59 - UCF
67 - Memphis
68 - SMU
72 - Houston
77 - USF
78 - ECU
79 - Cincinnati
84 - Colorado State (MWC)
87 - Fresno (MWC)
90 - Utah State (MWC)

2018 numbers for teams in the top 90:
48 - Cincinnati
57 - Boise (MWC)
62 - UCF
65 - USF
68 - Tulane
73 - Houston
79 - San Diego State (MWC)
80 - Memphis
81 - Nevada (MWC)
82 - Temple
86 - Colorado State (MWC)
87 - SMU
89 - ECU
10-07-2019 12:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,670
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 83
I Root For: Ohio St, MAC
Location:
Post: #67
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
The AAC is outperforming all of the P5 versus G5 opponents. They are 15-1 while every single P5 has 2 or more losses:

ACC: 4 (I lumped in Citadel’s defeat of GT)
Big Ten: 3
Big 12: 2
SEC: 5
PAC 12: 7
10-07-2019 01:12 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
oliveandblue Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,567
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 165
I Root For: Tulane
Location:
Post: #68
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 01:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The AAC is outperforming all of the P5 versus G5 opponents. They are 15-1 while every single P5 has 2 or more losses:

ACC: 4 (I lumped in Citadel’s defeat of GT)
Big Ten: 3
Big 12: 2
SEC: 5
PAC 12: 7


Avoiding the dreaded bad loss is why we have 7 teams in top 25 or RV. The league is a bunch of decent but not great 4-1 type of teams. It's good TV but bad for the NY6 race (which Boise wins at 13-0 this year - just my opinion).
10-07-2019 07:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Native Georgian Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 21,770
Joined: May 2008
Reputation: 561
I Root For: TULANE+GA.STATE
Location: Decatur GA
Post: #69
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 07:01 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Avoiding the dreaded bad loss is why we have 7 teams in top 25 or RV. The [AAC] is a bunch of decent but not great 4-1 type of teams. It's good TV but bad for the NY6 race (which Boise wins at 13-0 this year - just my opinion).
Just MHO:

45% chance Boise has 1 (and only 1) loss as of December 8.
30% chance — 0 losses.
25% chance — more than 1 loss.
10-07-2019 07:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 31,519
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 788
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #70
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 07:20 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 07:01 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Avoiding the dreaded bad loss is why we have 7 teams in top 25 or RV. The [AAC] is a bunch of decent but not great 4-1 type of teams. It's good TV but bad for the NY6 race (which Boise wins at 13-0 this year - just my opinion).
Just MHO:

45% chance Boise has 1 (and only 1) loss as of December 8.
30% chance — 0 losses.
25% chance — more than 1 loss.

I agree. I expect an AAC team to get the NY6 bid, just because it will boil down to either (a) unbeaten Boise or (b) AAC champ.

Since I think Boise has about a 30% chance of going unbeaten, that means a 70% chance of the AAC champ getting the NY6 bid.
10-07-2019 07:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 31,519
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 788
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #71
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 07:01 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The AAC is outperforming all of the P5 versus G5 opponents. They are 15-1 while every single P5 has 2 or more losses:

ACC: 4 (I lumped in Citadel’s defeat of GT)
Big Ten: 3
Big 12: 2
SEC: 5
PAC 12: 7


Avoiding the dreaded bad loss is why we have 7 teams in top 25 or RV. The league is a bunch of decent but not great 4-1 type of teams. It's good TV but bad for the NY6 race (which Boise wins at 13-0 this year - just my opinion).

I think that's a fair assessment. You look at Tulane, Memphis, Cincy, Temple, SMU, Navy, and UCF, and all of those are pretty good to good teams, top 20 - top 50 type teams, but none is a top 15 type team.
(This post was last modified: 10-07-2019 07:50 PM by quo vadis.)
10-07-2019 07:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bill dazzle Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 379
Joined: Aug 2016
Reputation: 27
I Root For: VanMemDePaulUNC
Location: Bach Bash City
Post: #72
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP
(This post was last modified: 10-07-2019 10:09 PM by bill dazzle.)
10-07-2019 09:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CougarRed Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,584
Joined: Feb 2006
Reputation: 324
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #73
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Massey Composite conference averages

Big 12 = 40.1
SEC = 43.9
Pac 12 = 44.9
Big 10 = 48.2

ACC = 56.7
American = 59.4


MWC = 74.2
Sun Belt = 86.0

CUSA = 96.7
MAC = 98.0

If this were next year, the American (sans UConn) would be ahead of the ACC at 53.3 to 56.7.
(This post was last modified: 10-07-2019 10:11 PM by CougarRed.)
10-07-2019 10:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WhoseHouse? Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,255
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 115
I Root For: UH
Location:
Post: #74
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

That's actually the scenario I was thinking about. 12-1 Boise, 12-1 SMU/Memphis, or and undefeated App St. That would make for a pretty interesting debate (how UNC finishes will greatly impact it).
10-07-2019 10:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Captain Bearcat Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,688
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 329
I Root For: UC
Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
Post: #75
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.
(This post was last modified: 10-07-2019 10:39 PM by Captain Bearcat.)
10-07-2019 10:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 31,519
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 788
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #76
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.
10-08-2019 09:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,577
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 218
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #77
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Cincy got destroyed by OSU. Tulane wasn't as bad against Auburn, but remains to be seen how strong Auburn really is.
10-08-2019 12:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,670
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 83
I Root For: Ohio St, MAC
Location:
Post: #78
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 07:01 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The AAC is outperforming all of the P5 versus G5 opponents. They are 15-1 while every single P5 has 2 or more losses:

ACC: 4 (I lumped in Citadel’s defeat of GT)
Big Ten: 3
Big 12: 2
SEC: 5
PAC 12: 7


Avoiding the dreaded bad loss is why we have 7 teams in top 25 or RV. The league is a bunch of decent but not great 4-1 type of teams. It's good TV but bad for the NY6 race (which Boise wins at 13-0 this year - just my opinion).

Boise could face some competition within the division from Wyoming or maybe Utah St.

Boise also has Hawaii during the regular season and has to face the West division champ. That division is really strong this year.

I don’t think 13-0 is a guarantee for the Smurf Turf.
10-08-2019 12:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,670
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 83
I Root For: Ohio St, MAC
Location:
Post: #79
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

If SMU is 13-0 or even 12-1 I think the committee is going to have a hard time sending someone else to the Cotton Bowl when they have the hometown ponies riding a feel good probation redemption story.
10-08-2019 12:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
dbackjon Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,577
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 218
I Root For: NAU/Illini
Location:
Post: #80
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Will be interesting to see what ends up being the better win - Boise over FSU, or SMU over TCU
10-08-2019 01:08 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2019 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2019 MyBB Group.