RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
I looked at who those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking.
Against "P5" the wins look about even. Best win among them comes from Wyoming...who lost to Tulsa head to head. Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams. The quantity, mwc's three more wins, basically came against dregs (those three fall nicely below the commonly held win against UCLA).
mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #21 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #35 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #39 AAC
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #47 mwc
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #56 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #57 mwc
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #60 AAC
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #69 AAC
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #75 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #75 mwc
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #81 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #98 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #105 mwc
AAC average MC ranking of 5 defeated "P5" opponents: 55.6
mwc average MC ranking of 8 defeated "P5" opponents: 67.5
mwc average MC ranking of best 5 defeated "P5" opponents: 51.2
As far as losses to "P5" teams go, don't hold the AAC's losses against them - four came against top ten teams. (Two were well-contested but two were blowouts). If you expand that aperture to top twenty-five teams, you account for half the AAC losses to "P5" teams. Only three of the mwc's losses to "P5" teams were to top twenty-five teams (and all three were blowouts).
"Bad" losses to "P5" teams look even to me - where do you draw that line?
mwc vs AAC losses to "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Ohio State 42, Cincinnati 0 #3 AAC
@Auburn 24, Tulane 6 #6 AAC
Wisconsin 49, @South Florida 0 #7 AAC
@Oklahoma 49, Houston 31 #8 AAC
@Notre Dame 66, New Mexico 14 #9 mwc
@Oregon 77, Nevada 6 #12 mwc
@Washington 52, Hawaii 20 #15 mwc
@Michigan State 28, Tulsa 7 #19 AAC
Oklahoma State 40, @Tulsa 21 #23 AAC
@Southern Cal 31, Fresno State 23 #28 mwc
@Wake Forest 38, Utah State 35 #29 mwc
Washington State 31, @Houston 24 #38 AAC
(2OT) Minnesota 38, @Fresno State 35 #42 mwc
@Pittsburgh 35, UCF 34 #44 AAC
Colorado 52, Colorado State 31 @Denver #47 mwc
@N.C. State 34, East Carolina 6 #53 AAC
@Indiana 38, UConn 3 #55 AAC
@Northwestern 30, UNLV 14 #71 mwc
Illinois 31, @UConn 23 #93 AAC
@Georgia Tech 14, South Florida 10 #94 AAC
@Arkansas 55, Colorado State 34 #105 mwc
Against non-contract-bowl-conference teams, AAC looks superior in overall record(9-1 vs 5-4) and in head-to-head (2-0 with AF@Navy still to come). Only one win is above the overall median of FBS, but the AAC dominates the top of the listing of "G5" victories ordered by opponents' rankings and the mwc the bottom. Losses to "G5" teams - all the mwc losses were to opponents ranked higher than Buffalo, holding the one "G5" win vs the AAC, against a good AAC team; however, half the mwc losses are to AAC Tulsa.
mwc and AAC "G5" victories, by opponents' Massey Composite ranking
@Tulsa 24, Wyoming 21 #63 AAC
@Boise State 14, Marshall 7 #67 mwc
@SMU 49, North Texas 27 #82 AAC
SMU 37, @Arkansas State 30 #83 AAC
UCF 48, @Florida Atlantic 14 #89 AAC
@Cincinnati 35, Miami/Ohio 13#107 AAC
Tulsa 34, @San Jose State 16 #108 AAC
@Tulane 42, Florida International 14 #117 AAC
@SMU 47, Texas State 17 #119
Wyoming 23, @Texas State 14 #119 mwc
Memphis 42, @South Alabama 6 #123 AAC
San Diego State 31, @New Mexico State 10 #126 mwc
@New Mexico 55, New Mexico State 52 #126 mwc
Nevada 37, @UTEP 21 #127 mwc
Edited to add Average ranking of AAC "G5" wins: 99
Edited to add Average ranking of mwc "G5" wins: 113
mwc and AAC "G5" losses, by opponents' Massey Composite ranking
Toledo 41, @Colorado State 35 #76 mwc
Tulsa 34, @San Jose State 16 #79 mwc
@Tulsa 24, Wyoming 21 #79 mwc
Arkansas State 43, @UNLV 17 #83 mwc
@Buffalo 38, Temple 22 #95 AAC
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2019 02:26 PM by slhNavy91.)
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