(06-25-2019 08:54 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 07:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  game like last night why I think the Dodgers could be had given their current state. Kershaw gives up 4 in 6 innings, including a homer to Greinke. Then Floro gives up 4 runs in the 8th.

Only guys in the Dodgers pen right now with sub 3 ERA's are Baez and Urias. And it's no fluke- they don't have a single FIP under 3 either.

They lost one game to a solid team. Let's not fall prey to small samples. I could say the same thing about the Braves. Let's try it: "game like last night is why I think the Braves could be had given their current state. Teheran gets shelled, because Teheran sucks."

Agree, the Rockies pitched a shut out last night. One game does not a trend make.


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so was looking at Dodgers and how much they have to play with right now for more moves. They according to the Dodgers spreadsheet that we use- https://www.truebluela.com/2017/8/5/1610...rvice-time

had about 6.315 million left.

it's dated May 5. So looking at things since then Maeda just made his 15th start. So there's a million gone already...

So down to 5.315 million left.

Maeda- at 15 starts, 83.2 innings.

Kershaw at 13 starts.

So for Kershaw, at 11 more starts he makes a million. Then every other start a million.
For Maeda, 5 more starts he makes a million. Then 5 more and 1.5 million. For Maeda 6.1 innings and 250k, and then 250k for every 10 innings after that.

So you'd assume about 2-3 million in bonuses for those 2.

so would leave really 2-3 million left for more moves. Now, about a million will get used in September callups. So really only about 1-2 million left to avoid the tax. Will have to be really creative. The "problem" if you will that they have this year vs last year is there really aren't many bad contracts left.

(06-25-2019 07:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  game like last night why I think the Dodgers could be had given their current state. Kershaw gives up 4 in 6 innings, including a homer to Greinke. Then Floro gives up 4 runs in the 8th.

Only guys in the Dodgers pen right now with sub 3 ERA's are Baez and Urias. And it's no fluke- they don't have a single FIP under 3 either.

This is an overreaction.

Kershaw for some reason has a problem with Christian Walker, who, despite only having 8 AB's against him, leads all active players with HRs off Kershaw (3).

That and giving up a HR to the best hitting pitcher in baseball (Greinke), he was fine.

(06-25-2019 11:14 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 07:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  game like last night why I think the Dodgers could be had given their current state. Kershaw gives up 4 in 6 innings, including a homer to Greinke. Then Floro gives up 4 runs in the 8th.

Only guys in the Dodgers pen right now with sub 3 ERA's are Baez and Urias. And it's no fluke- they don't have a single FIP under 3 either.

This is an overreaction.

Kershaw for some reason has a problem with Christian Walker, who, despite only having 8 AB's against him, leads all active players with HRs off Kershaw (3).

That and giving up a HR to the best hitting pitcher in baseball (Greinke), he was fine.

but Kershaw is kind of HR prone now. He's given up 12. Only 27 guys have given up more HR per 9 than Kershaw now this year in MLB. In his last 10 starts- 4 of them he's given up 2 homers. And last night, he only got 2 strikeouts. With only 6 swinging strikes the entire game. His FIP from 2011-16 was 2.26. In the last 3 years, it's up to 3.26. Frankly, he should be 3rd starter in series in the playoffs.

I'm not going to go back and refute all the critical thinking errors and poor logic being used here. Forgive me if I focus more on what IS happening than what MIGHT happen in the future.

Kershaw is a known quantity. His back injury occurred what, 3 years ago? He hasn't been the same pitcher since and everyone knows that. While disappointed he's no longer among the top 2 or 3 pitchers in MLB, no one associated with the Dodgers is either surprised or upset by his current level of play. They are now counting on him to be a solid pitcher with moments of greatness and weakness. And they've done quite well with that this year.

Every team has flaws. If you are half way (or nearly so) through the season, and you need to address those flaws, you are much better off doing so when you have the best record in baseball. Doesn't mean they're winning (or even participating in) the WS! But talking about the Dodgers as though they are somehow more at risk than other contenders makes no sense. I get it - as a fan it's your right. But let's not get carried away and confuse wishful thinking with insight.

The problem for the Dodgers is what could go wrong for them?

Pitching....

Starters- Counting heavily on Ryu(who is very injury prone), Kershaw(who is very injury prone), and Hill(who is hurt and very injury prone). You say depth with guys like Stripling, Urias, etc. Great. But then that takes away from-
Relief- right now, what shutdown guy do they have?

I have no problem at all saying the Dodgers will wind up with the best REGULAR SEASON record. But playoffs? That's a different animal. And the pitching means so much more in the playoffs. Starters go less innings and relief pitchers mean way more.

(06-25-2019 04:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem for the Dodgers is what could go wrong for them?

Pitching....

Starters- Counting heavily on Ryu(who is very injury prone), Kershaw(who is very injury prone), and Hill(who is hurt and very injury prone). You say depth with guys like Stripling, Urias, etc. Great. But then that takes away from-
Relief- right now, what shutdown guy do they have?

I have no problem at all saying the Dodgers will wind up with the best REGULAR SEASON record. But playoffs? That's a different animal. And the pitching means so much more in the playoffs. Starters go less innings and relief pitchers mean way more.

The I guess right now, we should feel pretty good about the Braves chances if they do in fact maintain and get into the playoffs. Their starting pitching has a t the moment waaay more issues than their bullpen. By your own logic their hitters, who are killing it and getting better, and their bullpen, which has all of a sudden come around, will be more than enough to take care of the woebegone first place in all of baseball Dodgers.

OR, I'm still thinking Braves (and all others in NL) have a LOT more to do to catch up to where Dodgers are today. Until proven otherwise, I'm going with Option #2.

Dodgers are fine right now and need to fine-tune to beat the Yunkees or Twins (or maybe Astros.)

So Nats trying any old relief pitcher. called up Johnny Venters and Fernando Rodney. Rodney gets in the game in the 9th in a 6-1 lead. After a lead off walk he gets a strike out and a dp to end the game. Looked fairly decent. good win beating the Marlins who are after starting the season 10-31 had gone 20-15 and tied with the Nats for the 4th best record in the NL in that period... These 6 games are huge for the Nats IMO. Go 4-2 vs the Marlins, and then get 5 of 6 from the Royals/Tigers and have gone 9-3 in these 2 weeks, and Nats are sitting at the break at 46-43. Anything better, and that's just gravy IMO.

(06-25-2019 09:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  So Nats trying any old relief pitcher. called up Johnny Venters and Fernando Rodney. Rodney gets in the game in the 9th in a 6-1 lead. After a lead off walk he gets a strike out and a dp to end the game. Looked fairly decent. good win beating the Marlins who are after starting the season 10-31 had gone 20-15 and tied with the Nats for the 4th best record in the NL in that period... These 6 games are huge for the Nats IMO. Go 4-2 vs the Marlins, and then get 5 of 6 from the Royals/Tigers and have gone 9-3 in these 2 weeks, and Nats are sitting at the break at 46-43. Anything better, and that's just gravy IMO.

Yeah, it seemed like Venters was done this year after Braves released him. I like the guy, half hope he can get himself back to something, but he's had 3 major surgeries on that arm. Time bomb at best. Wash BP was only a few points above Orioles' at start of tonight's game. Not sure how much Venters can help with that.

Scherzer impressive tonight. Wash needs to beat up on dregs, hope Braves come back to them.

Phillies win again, beat Metz.

Braves were down in Chicago but fought back and leading by a run in 8th trying to win one on the road at Cubbies.

Nice win for Braves, come from behind to beat the Cubs 3-2. Anthony Swarzek once again pitched a great 8th inning. Luke Jackson pitched a good 9th as well. Braves had only 3 hits. Only team this year so far to have tow wins with 3 or fewer hits. So, Braves keep pace with Phils and Nats.

MadBum had a nice game tonight for Giants against Rocks.

(06-25-2019 11:01 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Nice win for Braves, come from behind to beat the Cubs 3-2. Anthony Swarzek once again pitched a great 8th inning. Luke Jackson pitched a good 9th as well. Braves had only 3 hits. Only team this year so far to have tow wins with 3 or fewer hits. So, Braves keep pace with Phils and Nats.

MadBum had a nice game tonight for Giants against Rocks.

Everyone pitches well against the Rockies away from Coors. By wRC+ they have the worst road offense in MLB.

(06-26-2019 07:07 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 11:01 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Nice win for Braves, come from behind to beat the Cubs 3-2. Anthony Swarzek once again pitched a great 8th inning. Luke Jackson pitched a good 9th as well. Braves had only 3 hits. Only team this year so far to have tow wins with 3 or fewer hits. So, Braves keep pace with Phils and Nats.

MadBum had a nice game tonight for Giants against Rocks.

Everyone pitches well against the Rockies away from Coors. By wRC+ they have the worst road offense in MLB.

Not this year, the splits not nearly as extreme this year.
Also SP road Era is 3rd in NL.

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Sale lit up early today for 3 runs in the first. Will be interesting to see if he recovers or if this is one of his bad starts......

After 2 scoreless starts in June he's last 3 starts to include today given up 8 runs in 12 innings. 6.00 ERA. And that's against the Orioles, Toronto, and White Sox- 3 of the 4 worst offenses by runs per game in the AL- and O's/Blue Jays are 2 of the 3 worst by wRC+ and White Sox are 6th worse. So he's getting hit by bad offenses.

(06-26-2019 12:29 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 07:07 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 11:01 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Nice win for Braves, come from behind to beat the Cubs 3-2. Anthony Swarzek once again pitched a great 8th inning. Luke Jackson pitched a good 9th as well. Braves had only 3 hits. Only team this year so far to have tow wins with 3 or fewer hits. So, Braves keep pace with Phils and Nats.

MadBum had a nice game tonight for Giants against Rocks.

Everyone pitches well against the Rockies away from Coors. By wRC+ they have the worst road offense in MLB.

Not this year, the splits not nearly as extreme this year.
Also SP road Era is 3rd in NL.

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But they're dead last in wRC+ on the road and were 29th last year. I'd say the splits are pretty extreme.

(06-26-2019 12:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sale lit up early today for 3 runs in the first. Will be interesting to see if he recovers or if this is one of his bad starts......

After 2 scoreless starts in June he's last 3 starts to include today given up 8 runs in 12 innings. 6.00 ERA. And that's against the Orioles, Toronto, and White Sox- 3 of the 4 worst offenses by runs per game in the AL- and O's/Blue Jays are 2 of the 3 worst by wRC+ and White Sox are 6th worse. So he's getting hit by bad offenses.

Sox are tied for the 2nd WC with the Rangers and a surging Indians team. It'll be interesting to see what their strategy is at the deadline. Will they stand pat and hold on to the few prospects they have left, or try to make another push?

The Sox have some easier games- but still have between now and July 30- 6 with Yankees, 3 with Dodgers, and 4 with the Rays(that's out of 26 games). So I think how they do in those 13 games will go a long way to your answer.

And their schedule starting July 22 gets brutal for the next 44 games. In those 44 games- they have 12 with the Yankees, 6 with the Rays, 7 with the Angels, 3 with the Indians, 2 with the Phillies, 2 with the Rockies, and 3 with the Twins. Only 9 games with losing teams in that stretch, and 3 of those are with the 39-40 Padres.

saw this tweet from the Dodgers PBP guy

turned into a nightmare as 1st inning 4 runs score including a 3 run homer.

(06-26-2019 03:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  saw this tweet from the Dodgers PBP guy

turned into a nightmare as 1st inning 4 runs score including a 3 run homer.

you were right!

(06-26-2019 03:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  saw this tweet from the Dodgers PBP guy

turned into a nightmare as 1st inning 4 runs score including a 3 run homer.

Did you look at what happened? Bunt single, infield single, error, homer. He's doin alright. And he's got the only Dodgers hit through 3.

The disturbing thing is a recent trend where LA's offense tends to make guys with big ERAs look like Cy Young candidates.

The amazing month and a half of Anthony Swarzek and the Braves' bullpen:

Swarzak’s ERA as a Brave is 0.54. He has yielded one earned run — a Howie Kendrick homer May 28 — in 16 appearances. He has 20 strikeouts against six walks, two of those intentional. Opponents are batting .127 with an OPS of .431 against him. Of 10 inherited runners, two have scored. He has induced 21 ground outs against 14 fly outs.

Seattle shipped Swarzak to the Braves on May 20 in exchange for Jesse Biddle, who has managed a 9.82 ERA as a Mariner, and Arodys Vizcaino, who underwent shoulder surgery in April and is lost for the season and will be a free agent come November. This was a junk-for-junk swap — Swarzak blew half of his six save chances with Seattle, where he compiled an ERA of 5.27 — that turned up trumps.

As of Wednesday morning, those Braves ranked third in the National League and sixth in the majors in bullpen ERA. Where other Eastern relievers rank among the 15 NL clubs: The Nationals are last, the Mets next-to-last, the Marlins fourth-from-last and the Phillies sixth-from-last. The Braves once numbered themselves among the ranks of the inept, but no longer.



After a minor trade brought him to Braves, Anthony Swarzak is having a major impact