(06-23-2019 03:53 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(06-22-2019 10:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  thing is the Dodgers have got to be willing to spend the money to get the good relief pitcher or two. The bullpen is the one thing that can be the great equalizer.

Other teams are going to make moves.. . Cubs, Brewers, Braves, Nats, etc. Are the Dodgers going to be willing to spend what it takes, even if it takes them over the luxury tax?

Postseason has a funny way of having a lot of real close games. Jansen is a concern.

So the argument here is that the Dodgers are in trouble because the other "contenders" will absolutely be improving their bullpens next month, while the Dodgers probably won't. Am I close? 1st in offense, 1st in defense, 1st in SP. But that 7th ranked pen will be what kills them.

bullpens mean far more in the postseason than they do in the regular season.

Also, teams like the Brewers won't necessarily have to improve their pen, but will be able to catch up in other areas.

(06-24-2019 07:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 03:53 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(06-22-2019 10:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  thing is the Dodgers have got to be willing to spend the money to get the good relief pitcher or two. The bullpen is the one thing that can be the great equalizer.

Other teams are going to make moves.. . Cubs, Brewers, Braves, Nats, etc. Are the Dodgers going to be willing to spend what it takes, even if it takes them over the luxury tax?

Postseason has a funny way of having a lot of real close games. Jansen is a concern.

So the argument here is that the Dodgers are in trouble because the other "contenders" will absolutely be improving their bullpens next month, while the Dodgers probably won't. Am I close? 1st in offense, 1st in defense, 1st in SP. But that 7th ranked pen will be what kills them.

bullpens mean far more in the postseason than they do in the regular season.

Also, teams like the Brewers won't necessarily have to improve their pen, but will be able to catch up in other areas.

No argument there, but SP means plenty and the Dodgers have by far the best of any contender. Maeda just went 7 and allowed only 2 last night. Ryu, Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, Stripling and Urias is absolutely insane.

Last season's Brewers bullpenning act was cute, but it's extremely hard to do in consecutive seasons, especially when you're missing someone as dominant as Knebel, and Jeffress not being able to duplicate last season.

To say that the Dodgers are in big trouble because their pen is a little lacking, just comes across as hairsplitting. In the first round the Dodgers will be playing the winner of the WC game, which will give an already great team a distinct advantage.

I'd like to also add that the Dodgers bullpen ERA is better than their counterparts on the Brewers. Looking strictly at ERA, none of the contenders has an obviously better pen than the Dodgers.

And Ryu,Kershaw are frankly brittle, no guarantee they're there in October. Maeda and Urias they need in the pen to help support that

The bigger problem for the Dodgers frankly is the back end. Jansen is not what he normally has been. Of all NL guys with 10 saves or more right now, only Diaz and Romo have worse ERA's, and only Romo, Iglesias, and Holland have worse FIP's. That's of 13 guys right now.

Also, you bring up the Dodgers getting Wild Card winner. Frankly, if they're playing the Brewers, how much of an advantage would that be?

I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

(06-24-2019 09:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

I just think the Jansen situation is one that really bares watching. Last year thru end of July he had given up 13 er in 51.1 innings thru July. 13/57 bb/k ratio. This year it's already 12 er in 32.2 innings. 7/44 bb/k ratio.

I think the Dodgers are the favorites, but October often times is not favorable for favorites..

(06-24-2019 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Also, you bring up the Dodgers getting Wild Card winner. Frankly, if they're playing the Brewers, how much of an advantage would that be?

Frankly, a lot.
Dodgers home/road wRC: 130/98
Brewers: 110/94

You do not want to play the Dodgers where they have home field and where you're already at a disadvantage from having to play a WC game.

(06-24-2019 10:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 09:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

I just think the Jansen situation is one that really bares watching. Last year thru end of July he had given up 13 er in 51.1 innings thru July. 13/57 bb/k ratio. This year it's already 12 er in 32.2 innings. 7/44 bb/k ratio.

I think the Dodgers are the favorites, but October often times is not favorable for favorites..

It's not that the Dodgers are the favorite, it's that they're overwhelmingly dominant. You're right that major advantages on paper can disappear in the postseason, as defense and bullpen play bigger roles. But the Brewers pen is not nearly as dominant as last season.

(06-24-2019 09:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

I just call it like I see it. I would love to see the Dodgers bounced in the first round, but I'm not going to tie myself in rhetorical knots to prove on paper that it will be so. Right now, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball AND they won the NL each of the past two seasons AND this year's Dodgers team is better than 2017 and 2018. Connect the dots...

You see, I don't think they're necessarily better than they were in 2017. 54-25 this year. They were 52-27 in 2017 thru 79 games, and 14-2 in their next 16 games. That team had a far better bullpen, and then went out and got Darvish to help with the rotation even more. And I think it's pretty fair to say that the 2017 division they were in is far stronger than this years division

(06-24-2019 09:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

Perhaps he's just sore that the Nuts blew an excellent chance this weekend at home against the Braves, dropping 2 of 3 leaving them 8.5 back after their little win streak. Nuts have some easier teams coming up, and they've shown they can beat the Braves, but if they're too far back and have trouble beating other decent teams it probably won't matter.

The Dodgs are clearly the class of the NL this year. Any concerns they have at this poitn are limited to how to win the WS once they plow through the imperfect other NL payoff teams this postseason. barring a historic injury spell, it will be incredible if they aren't in WS. Next year, maybe they'll get a better fight (maybe they sign Rendon?)

(06-24-2019 03:05 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 09:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

Perhaps he's just sore that the Nuts blew an excellent chance this weekend at home against the Braves, dropping 2 of 3 leaving them 8.5 back after their little win streak. Nuts have some easier teams coming up, and they've shown they can beat the Braves, but if they're too far back and have trouble beating other decent teams it probably won't matter.

The Dodgs are clearly the class of the NL this year. Any concerns they have at this poitn are limited to how to win the WS once they plow through the imperfect other NL payoff teams this postseason. barring a historic injury spell, it will be incredible if they aren't in WS. Next year, maybe they'll get a better fight (maybe they sign Rendon?)

i'd wait to see what happens at the trade deadline. Lets see what the Cubs, Brewers, Braves, Nats maybe, Rockies, Phillies etc. do.

And sorry, but a 5 game series, 1-2 screw ups and all of a sudden and you're in deep trouble.

(06-24-2019 03:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 03:05 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 09:39 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I’m not sure what’s more hilarious: stever tying himself in pretzels rationalizing Dodgers impending failure or swoosh heaping praise on them.

Perhaps he's just sore that the Nuts blew an excellent chance this weekend at home against the Braves, dropping 2 of 3 leaving them 8.5 back after their little win streak. Nuts have some easier teams coming up, and they've shown they can beat the Braves, but if they're too far back and have trouble beating other decent teams it probably won't matter.

The Dodgs are clearly the class of the NL this year. Any concerns they have at this poitn are limited to how to win the WS once they plow through the imperfect other NL payoff teams this postseason. barring a historic injury spell, it will be incredible if they aren't in WS. Next year, maybe they'll get a better fight (maybe they sign Rendon?)

i'd wait to see what happens at the trade deadline. Lets see what the Cubs, Brewers, Braves, Nats maybe, Rockies, Phillies etc. do.

And sorry, but a 5 game series, 1-2 screw ups and all of a sudden and you're in deep trouble.

You didn't mention the Cardinals, but Jordan Hicks is now out for the year with a torn UCL. Another possible contender loses a major bullpen piece.

Braves getting pasted at Cubs. Lester was on tonight. Now 2-7 in 6th.
Phillies righting the ship a bit tonight at home, up 12-6 on Metz in 9th.

Edit: Teheran gave up 7 ER tonight. Braves lose 3-8 to Cubbies. Braves still have starting pitchi9ng issues their hitting has been covering. Easier at home as it turned out to be a bit more of a hitter's park than I think the designers were anticipating--but that helps visiting teams as well. Pitching is still a major concern, starters and BP. Stever: who's bullpen you'd rather have: Braves' or Dodgers'?

Oh, well, it couldn't last forever. We need to go shopping some.

PS: screw the Yankees.

Then again, after the weekend Braves relievers led the majors with a 2.75 ERA since adding Anthony Swarzak on May 22. So maybe their starters are the bigger issue right now (Teheran giving up 7 toight, Folty giving up 8 before being demoted, fried returning to earth, Soroka with a big bruise on his pitching arm after the Nuts hit him during a 3rd-inning at-bat, etc...)

Right now the Braves are clearly the second best team in the NL (Cubs a close third). Question for them is, do they go hard after a SP and a RP? A rotation of Soroka, Keuchel, Fried and Stroman would be a good one

game like last night why I think the Dodgers could be had given their current state. Kershaw gives up 4 in 6 innings, including a homer to Greinke. Then Floro gives up 4 runs in the 8th.

Only guys in the Dodgers pen right now with sub 3 ERA's are Baez and Urias. And it's no fluke- they don't have a single FIP under 3 either.

(06-25-2019 07:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  game like last night why I think the Dodgers could be had given their current state. Kershaw gives up 4 in 6 innings, including a homer to Greinke. Then Floro gives up 4 runs in the 8th.

Only guys in the Dodgers pen right now with sub 3 ERA's are Baez and Urias. And it's no fluke- they don't have a single FIP under 3 either.

They lost one game to a solid team. Let's not fall prey to small samples. I could say the same thing about the Braves. Let's try it: "game like last night is why I think the Braves could be had given their current state. Teheran gets shelled, because Teheran sucks."

(06-25-2019 08:54 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 07:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  game like last night why I think the Dodgers could be had given their current state. Kershaw gives up 4 in 6 innings, including a homer to Greinke. Then Floro gives up 4 runs in the 8th.

Only guys in the Dodgers pen right now with sub 3 ERA's are Baez and Urias. And it's no fluke- they don't have a single FIP under 3 either.

They lost one game to a solid team. Let's not fall prey to small samples. I could say the same thing about the Braves. Let's try it: "game like last night is why I think the Braves could be had given their current state. Teheran gets shelled, because Teheran sucks."

but all the postseason is are small samples.

Also, it's more how they lost last night. Kershaw is frankly not Kershaw any more. He's got a 3.07 ERA and 3.79 FIP. Already given up 12 homers. And then the bullpen struck again with 4 runs in 2 innings.

What is funny as anything- the Dodger in June with the most fWAR in relief- Brooke's favorite- Joe Kelly. After 8.31 ERA thru April, and 8.44 in May, he's got a 1.29 ERA in June. I'll admit, that's an x factor- if he's on, that gives the Dodgers a LOT of help come October. But as we saw with Morrow in 2017, Dodgers can run a guy like that into the ground in the playoffs and eventually they just don't have it.

I came here for this and stever did not disappoint.