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Hot Stove 2018/19
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1
Hot Stove 2018/19
Starting this thread asap to minimize my visits to the old thread that ended, for the second year in a row, in exactly the same way (as far as I'm concerned). On to business...

Dodgers: Better not sign mothef'ing Machado. Better not give Kershaw a huge long term deal if he opts out. Better figure out a way to get a reliable bat in the outfield. Better get the bullpen sorted. Better leverage the **** out of their new-found luxury tax status.

Big free agents are Harper, Machado, Corbin, Keuchel, Brantley(?). Only the first two are super impact guys who can demand stratospheric money, but I think all (mostly - not sure about Brantley) have the *potential* to be impact guys. (Maybe Ottavino and Kimbrell could be on this list?)

Next tier: Ottavino, Kimbrell, Grandal, Morton, Ramos, Lowrie, Pollock, Markakis, McCutcheon, Happ, Familia

And there are guys like Kershaw and Price who can but might (Kershaw) or might not (Price) opt out of their contracts.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2018 10:48 PM by Brookes Owl.)
10-28-2018 10:44 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Who will be the Dodgers' manager in 2019?
10-29-2018 01:32 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Pretty sure Joe Kelly is a free agent. In the postseason he was one of the most dominant RP I'd seen all year
10-29-2018 06:40 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Dodgers have got to address the bullpen some.

And a lot of what they do will be decided here in the next 72 hours, when the Kershaw decision is made....

Nats will be interesting to watch this year. huge offseason for them obviously.
10-29-2018 07:29 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 01:32 AM)Wedge Wrote:  Who will be the Dodgers' manager in 2019?

Heh - valid question but it’ll be Roberts. Not sure if I’m thrilled by that, but also not sure that, if replaced, a lot of the same moves still get made. FO meddling starting to feel more and more likely.
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2018 08:31 AM by Brookes Owl.)
10-29-2018 08:30 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 06:40 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Pretty sure Joe Kelly is a free agent. In the postseason he was one of the most dominant RP I'd seen all year

Yeah, I should’ve included him. Made a BIG post season impression.
10-29-2018 08:32 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
what is so funny about Kelly is his September was awful. 8.31 ERA. And June/July were just as bad.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/playe...r=2018&t=p
10-29-2018 08:54 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 08:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what is so funny about Kelly is his September was awful. 8.31 ERA. And June/July were just as bad.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/playe...r=2018&t=p

Yup, and then all of a season he turned the corner and was as lights out as any RP in the postseason.
10-29-2018 09:28 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Seeing some chatter about the biggest of LA's FAs (Kershaw, Grandal, Ryu). Predictions:
Machado: Dodgers can't make a Qualifying Offer and I don't think they'll try to sign him.
Kershaw: They're almost certainly talking extension right now but he'll probably opt out. Dodgers will make a QO but he'll be gone. Still not sure how I feel about that. Even sub-optimal Kershaw is only behind a handful of the league's starters. If 3-4 year deal, might make it more palatable?
Grandal: Dodgers will make a QO but he'll get a better deal elsewhere. Despite his good regular season, I don't think he's reliable offensively and I think he creates errors (passed balls) because he's so focused on pitch framing. Leaves a hole though, unless they can figure out Barnes's offense.
Ryu: Dodgers will make a QO but injuries might depress his market and he'll stay.
10-29-2018 01:15 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
you think the Dodgers would make a QO which is about 19 million for Ryu? I just don't see that. Maybe they have to if Kershaw is also gone- and then left with Buehler, Hill, Maeda, and Urias. Especially if Kershaw returns- I don't see the QO for Ryu at all.
10-29-2018 01:29 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
I dunno. Look at the FA starters and tell me there are a bunch of guys more valuable than Ryu. Also, remember how much Friedman loves supplemental 1st round draft picks...
10-29-2018 01:53 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 01:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  you think the Dodgers would make a QO which is about 19 million for Ryu?

Last year was $17.4MM - is it really going to be that much more this year?

ETA: cbssports.com says it's $17.9MM
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2018 01:57 PM by Brookes Owl.)
10-29-2018 01:55 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 01:53 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I dunno. Look at the FA starters and tell me there are a bunch of guys more valuable than Ryu. Also, remember how much Friedman loves supplemental 1st round draft picks...

I don't know. a 10 million dollar raise for a guy who has made 40 starts in the last 4 years- and turns 32 3 days prior to the '19 season. That seems like a pretty big overpay quite frankly.
10-29-2018 02:08 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 01:55 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 01:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  you think the Dodgers would make a QO which is about 19 million for Ryu?

Last year was $17.4MM - is it really going to be that much more this year?

ETA: cbssports.com says it's $17.9MM

fair enough. So right near 18 million...
10-29-2018 02:09 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
If Kershaw is coming back, I wouldn't make the QO to Ryu. Although why can't they go to a 6 man rotation and skip each pitcher's turn a few times. All of those guys could use that for one reason or another.
10-29-2018 02:41 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 02:41 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  If Kershaw is coming back, I wouldn't make the QO to Ryu.

And that may be how it plays out; we'll find out in a couple of days I guess. At least, the Kershaw part.
10-29-2018 05:48 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 02:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 01:53 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I dunno. Look at the FA starters and tell me there are a bunch of guys more valuable than Ryu. Also, remember how much Friedman loves supplemental 1st round draft picks...

I don't know. a 10 million dollar raise for a guy who has made 40 starts in the last 4 years- and turns 32 3 days prior to the '19 season. That seems like a pretty big overpay quite frankly.

Stever, you're the guy who hates bullpenning.

But this is the reason for bullpenning: Because non-awful veteran starters cost so much in salary, and cost so much in assets if you trade for them.

If you want to avoid bullpenning, you have to pay up for starters.
10-29-2018 06:51 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 06:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 02:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 01:53 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I dunno. Look at the FA starters and tell me there are a bunch of guys more valuable than Ryu. Also, remember how much Friedman loves supplemental 1st round draft picks...

I don't know. a 10 million dollar raise for a guy who has made 40 starts in the last 4 years- and turns 32 3 days prior to the '19 season. That seems like a pretty big overpay quite frankly.

Stever, you're the guy who hates bullpenning.

But this is the reason for bullpenning: Because non-awful veteran starters cost so much in salary, and cost so much in assets if you trade for them.

If you want to avoid bullpenning, you have to pay up for starters.

There are guys that you can get for far cheaper than 18 million that would not be bad.
10-29-2018 07:04 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Harper to Cubs! There’s a conspiracy theory confirming this
10-29-2018 08:21 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Question RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-28-2018 10:44 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Next tier: Ottavino, Kimbrell, Grandal, Morton, Ramos, Lowrie, Pollock, Markakis, McCutcheon, Happ, Familia

haha, Markakis...sure...you can have him. Impact...haha. Not next season (after his career fluke year this past one), but please overpay for him.
10-29-2018 08:36 PM
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