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Hot Stove 2018/19
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 07:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 06:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 02:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 01:53 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I dunno. Look at the FA starters and tell me there are a bunch of guys more valuable than Ryu. Also, remember how much Friedman loves supplemental 1st round draft picks...

I don't know. a 10 million dollar raise for a guy who has made 40 starts in the last 4 years- and turns 32 3 days prior to the '19 season. That seems like a pretty big overpay quite frankly.

Stever, you're the guy who hates bullpenning.

But this is the reason for bullpenning: Because non-awful veteran starters cost so much in salary, and cost so much in assets if you trade for them.

If you want to avoid bullpenning, you have to pay up for starters.

There are guys that you can get for far cheaper than 18 million that would not be bad.

The use of bullpenning will always be more limited than the Chicken Littles complain it is. That's because a team that plays 6 games a week for 6 months has to have some pitchers who pitch more than 2 or 3 innings in a game, unless the team carries 14 pitchers on a 25 man roster, and no team is going to do that. But the economics of pitcher salaries make bullpenning more attractive.

Mike Fiers is reportedly going to get about $9.7 million in arbitration, per this article. The A's will pay that because they'll still have 6 or 7 injured starters who won't be ready on opening day and maybe won't be ready any time in 2019. So they'll pay almost $10 million for a 34 year old starter whose 2018 might be a fluke because it was much better than any previous year in his career.

Relievers can cost a lot less and deliver better performance per inning than a subpar starter. The A's will probably have 3 solid late inning relievers who, combined, make as much as Fiers himself and pitch more innings per week than Fiers.
10-29-2018 10:59 PM
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Brookes Owl Online
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Post: #22
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 07:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 06:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 02:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 01:53 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I dunno. Look at the FA starters and tell me there are a bunch of guys more valuable than Ryu. Also, remember how much Friedman loves supplemental 1st round draft picks...

I don't know. a 10 million dollar raise for a guy who has made 40 starts in the last 4 years- and turns 32 3 days prior to the '19 season. That seems like a pretty big overpay quite frankly.

Stever, you're the guy who hates bullpenning.

But this is the reason for bullpenning: Because non-awful veteran starters cost so much in salary, and cost so much in assets if you trade for them.

If you want to avoid bullpenning, you have to pay up for starters.

There are guys that you can get for far cheaper than 18 million that would not be bad.

There are very few sure things out there. It's fair to say signing Ryu is a risk but his upside is absolutely worth $18MM.
10-30-2018 12:01 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #23
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Ryu's stats if he had been able to make 25-30 starts may have been worth 18 million..... But he only made 15. No starter is worth 18 million with only 15 starts...
10-30-2018 12:13 AM
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Brookes Owl Online
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Post: #24
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 08:36 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(10-28-2018 10:44 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Next tier: Ottavino, Kimbrell, Grandal, Morton, Ramos, Lowrie, Pollock, Markakis, McCutcheon, Happ, Familia

haha, Markakis...sure...you can have him. Impact...haha. Not next season (after his career fluke year this past one), but please overpay for him.

Perhaps you misunderstood? I'm not saying the Dodgers will make him an offer, nor am I saying he's an impact player. "Next tier" was my way of saying "not impact players but guys who will receive genuine interest from multiple teams."
10-30-2018 12:18 AM
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Brookes Owl Online
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Post: #25
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-30-2018 12:13 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Ryu's stats if he had been able to make 25-30 starts may have been worth 18 million..... But he only made 15. No starter is worth 18 million with only 15 starts...

Yeah - that's why it's a risk, but also why (I think) some teams might find it an acceptable risk.
10-30-2018 12:23 AM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 01:15 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Seeing some chatter about the biggest of LA's FAs (Kershaw, Grandal, Ryu). Predictions:
Machado: Dodgers can't make a Qualifying Offer and I don't think they'll try to sign him.
Kershaw: They're almost certainly talking extension right now but he'll probably opt out. Dodgers will make a QO but he'll be gone. Still not sure how I feel about that. Even sub-optimal Kershaw is only behind a handful of the league's starters. If 3-4 year deal, might make it more palatable?
Grandal: Dodgers will make a QO but he'll get a better deal elsewhere. Despite his good regular season, I don't think he's reliable offensively and I think he creates errors (passed balls) because he's so focused on pitch framing. Leaves a hole though, unless they can figure out Barnes's offense.
Ryu: Dodgers will make a QO but injuries might depress his market and he'll stay.

I don't think the Dodgers will make a QO to Grandal. Supposedly, they have a couple decent catching prospects in their farm system. Grandal's 24 HRs and pitch framing is nice. But analytics cannot mask 15 strikeouts in 29 postseason at-bats in 2018, or being benched in favor of Austin Barnes in 2017.

I also do not expect Kershaw to opt out. The Dodgers next year will have a deeper rotation. Buehler, Hill, Wood, Ryu (if he resigns), and perhaps Urias. That doesn't even include Caleb Ferguson, who could also crack the rotation in 2019. Kershaw as potentially a #3 is still a weapon.

Worth noting: while not a free agent, the Dodgers have a club option on David Freese for 2019, which I HOPE they pick up - I'm confident they will do so.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2018 12:49 AM by jdgaucho.)
10-30-2018 12:46 AM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-29-2018 06:40 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Pretty sure Joe Kelly is a free agent. In the postseason he was one of the most dominant RP I'd seen all year

Nathan Eovaldi is also a free agent.
10-30-2018 12:51 AM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Here's one for ya, Brookes: The Dodgers have a glut of outfielders (mostly Puig, Pederson, Verdugo and Toles). Chris Taylor is shuffled between the outfield and 2nd base, and Cody Bellinger the outfield and 1st base. And Enrique Hernandez is the super utility player.

WTH do they do with Matt Kemp? From being an intended salary dump and not supposed to make the roster, to an All Star and the NL Comeback Player of the Year. You expect the Dodgers to try again to unload him in the offseason, or do they let this play itself out?? He's under contract for next year at $21.5 million.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2018 01:02 AM by jdgaucho.)
10-30-2018 01:01 AM
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Brookes Owl Online
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Post: #29
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-30-2018 12:46 AM)jdgaucho Wrote:  I don't think the Dodgers will make a QO to Grandal. Supposedly, they have a couple decent catching prospects in their farm system. Grandal's 24 HRs and pitch framing is nice. But analytics cannot mask 15 strikeouts in 29 postseason at-bats in 2018, or being benched in favor of Austin Barnes in 2017.

I think the Dodgers will give Grandal a QO because: 1) He'll get a bigger offer elsewhere, and 2) Friedman loves getting those supplemental 1st round draft picks. Last I heard, Ruiz was at least a year away from the big leagues, which would leave Barnes and Farmer. Not great. They can try to fast track Ruiz but it seems really unlikely he's gonna be getting significant playing time in 2019. He's 20 years old and never played above AA.

Quote:I also do not expect Kershaw to opt out.

I'd be fine with this if we can get two years of overpriced Kershaw - that's better than 3-5. But if he doesn't opt out because the Dodgers give him an extension? Uuuuugh.

Quote:Worth noting: while not a free agent, the Dodgers have a club option on David Freese for 2019, which I HOPE they pick up - I'm confident they will do so.

Yeah - I left him out but it's a no-brainer to pick up his option.
10-30-2018 01:08 AM
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Phlipper33 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
Elvis Andrus is reportedly not opting out of his contract. Not surprising as he had a down year after getting hurt early. He has another opt-out opportunity next off-season as well.
10-30-2018 08:57 AM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-30-2018 12:18 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-29-2018 08:36 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(10-28-2018 10:44 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Next tier: Ottavino, Kimbrell, Grandal, Morton, Ramos, Lowrie, Pollock, Markakis, McCutcheon, Happ, Familia

haha, Markakis...sure...you can have him. Impact...haha. Not next season (after his career fluke year this past one), but please overpay for him.

Perhaps you misunderstood? I'm not saying the Dodgers will make him an offer, nor am I saying he's an impact player. "Next tier" was my way of saying "not impact players but guys who will receive genuine interest from multiple teams."

That's okay. I have seen him mentioned similarly elsewhere, and the Braves are even entertaining the idea of re-signing him, which would be a huge mistake. We got decent value out of him, especially this past season, but the smart bet is to let him go get overpaid elsewhere for his inevitable decline years. Two seasons ago, we wanted badly to trade him and Kemp, but only were able to dump Kemp in a salary reset situation. Glad he had a good year for you, but he is also closer to retirement and not worth a re-signing risk.

I sincerely hope Braves get rid of guys like Markakis and give some of their long-awaited youth a chance to develop on the main stage next season. It's time.

I think the most interesting story over the next few seasons to watch as far as development/rebuilds will be to see what goes on in South Floriblah. As to the rest of NLeast, I wonder how much the Phillies will spend this winter. And the Metz, cursed as they are will probably think they are closer to the ring as well. Washington will be the favorite, but Braves will be right there with them. I think as things stand right now, both make next year's postseason, one div winner, one WC, but I don't know who will be which. Of course, depending on how things shuffle out in offseason, that prediction could and probably will change.
10-30-2018 12:19 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
1 thing that i think will bare watching this winter and next year is going to be Chris Sale. I thought his usage in the playoffs and especially the World Series was in a word strange..... Something isn't right there......
10-30-2018 02:07 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-30-2018 12:19 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  I think the most interesting story over the next few seasons to watch as far as development/rebuilds will be to see what goes on in South Floriblah.

Interesting like watching a train derail? Everything I've seen so far makes me think they want to operate with an Oakland A's budget, but they don't have the brains to make that work.
10-30-2018 03:01 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-30-2018 03:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-30-2018 12:19 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  I think the most interesting story over the next few seasons to watch as far as development/rebuilds will be to see what goes on in South Floriblah.

Interesting like watching a train derail? Everything I've seen so far makes me think they want to operate with an Oakland A's budget, but they don't have the brains to make that work.

A team has almost no chance of consistently being .500 or over on a (relatively) small payroll unless the franchise has a strong farm system. The Marlins have one of the worst farm systems.
10-30-2018 04:19 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #35
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
so reading on twitter this morning the expectation is that Kershaw probably will reup and get a year or 2 added to his deal....

from Olney:
Almost all of the educated guesses heard from agents/execs about Clayton Kershaw's situation is that the left-hander and the Dodgers will work out some kind of extension of one or two years, beyond the two years/$70 million he is owed. He has to decide whether to opt out today.

and Bob Nightengale replying to Olney's post
Agree, Clayton Kershaw will stay with #Dodgers but get at least one more year tacked onto contract through 2021
10-31-2018 10:33 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-31-2018 10:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so reading on twitter this morning the expectation is that Kershaw probably will reup and get a year or 2 added to his deal....

from Olney:
Almost all of the educated guesses heard from agents/execs about Clayton Kershaw's situation is that the left-hander and the Dodgers will work out some kind of extension of one or two years, beyond the two years/$70 million he is owed. He has to decide whether to opt out today.

and Bob Nightengale replying to Olney's post
Agree, Clayton Kershaw will stay with #Dodgers but get at least one more year tacked onto contract through 2021

I'm not upset with an extra year at $30MMish. You wouldn't think that should handcuff the FO.

ETA: But worth noting Olney and Nightengale are both speculating. No sources cited.

ETA2: And Nightengale is often wrong.
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2018 12:12 PM by Brookes Owl.)
10-31-2018 12:10 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
I wonder if the Dodgers will see value in mixing in some contact hitters? LeMahieu is a FA and a terrific contact guy, and 2nd base is still an unsettled position for the Dodgers. (Dozier isn't working, Muncy just isn't an every day 2nd baseman let alone the regression issues, Hernandez and Taylor had pumpkin-esque seasons this year). And working Verdugo into the outfield would get some nice contact balance into the lineup.
10-31-2018 12:18 PM
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Post: #38
Question RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-30-2018 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing that i think will bare watching this winter and next year is going to be Chris Sale. I thought his usage in the playoffs and especially the World Series was in a word strange..... Something isn't right there......

I think Boston has picked up Sale's option, so there's that.

I was happy that they let Sale pitch the 9th in game 5, and he was lights out against a tough inning of players. Cora had said he would only use him one more time, and with the way the game went, it was nice to see Sale get a chance to go all out one inning. Kimbrel had not done too good a job the night before, and I was hoping they would not bring him in. Besides, he needs to shave that beard down- looks ridiculous.

Sale will have the Winter to heal up and rest.
10-31-2018 12:20 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
You buying the Boras statement that Harper's already got a deal? Feels like BS, right? The only team he can (by the rules) have a deal with is the Nats. If he actually has one there'd be no reason not to say so. And it'd be kind of dumb to just admit he'd violated MLB rules, right? It feels like a play to gin up interest.
10-31-2018 12:21 PM
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Post: #40
Question RE: Hot Stove 2018/19
(10-31-2018 12:18 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I wonder if the Dodgers will see value in mixing in some contact hitters? LeMahieu is a FA and a terrific contact guy, and 2nd base is still an unsettled position for the Dodgers. (Dozier isn't working, Muncy just isn't an every day 2nd baseman let alone the regression issues, Hernandez and Taylor had pumpkin-esque seasons this year). And working Verdugo into the outfield would get some nice contact balance into the lineup.

Do you see anyone else toppling the Dodgers next season (in NL West and in NL overall?) Or do you see them right back in WS again?
10-31-2018 12:21 PM
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