(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.
Good god man, you tellin' us you've already analyzed the results precinct by precinct? LOL.
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
(08-07-2018 09:44 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote: Impressive showing by the repubes tonight. Looks like they will only underperform by about 17 points and will hold onto a seat they’ve held for 35 years.
It will be interesting to see how it turns out in November.
Yea, anything less than about a 64 seat shellacking will be a fail.
The party in the White House nearly always loses ground
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.
I'm asking this question again. I'm really curious to know your view on this. The question is in response to your earlier write up already quoted.
Are you saying in these house races that the candidates themselves are pawns on the political chess board between the Duopoly?
"I don't buy that. Politics in the house races are local. I don't know enough about the candidates to comment much except for the fact that the Dem tried to position himself as a centrist. Do you believe that if alexandra ocasio cortez was the Dem running in OH-12 that the outcome would be exactly the same (a tightly contested race) or a possible win by her because she's a young, fresh face?"
(08-07-2018 09:44 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote: Impressive showing by the repubes tonight. Looks like they will only underperform by about 17 points and will hold onto a seat they’ve held for 35 years.
It will be interesting to see how it turns out in November.
Translation: "Well, sh**."
Translation: “if we’re 50-49 in a 66-34 district... I feel pretty good about taking back the House in 2018.”
GOP had a very low turnout. Kind of like when an SEC plays their B squad against a 1-AA team and still wins by 10.
The better football parallel for the Ohio 12th would be a team of 11 players taking on a team of 4... with the team of 11 pulling out a 1 pt win in the final minute of the game.
Impressive indeed. We'll see how things turn out when the two teams play in a district a little more balanced.
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.
I'm asking this question again. I'm really curious to know your view on this. The question is in response to your earlier write up already quoted.
Are you saying in these house races that the candidates themselves are pawns on the political chess board between the Duopoly?
"I don't buy that. Politics in the house races are local. I don't know enough about the candidates to comment much except for the fact that the Dem tried to position himself as a centrist. Do you believe that if alexandra ocasio cortez was the Dem running in OH-12 that the outcome would be exactly the same (a tightly contested race) or a possible win by her because she's a young, fresh face?"
She got less than 16000 votes in a primary. Lol. Made for tv fiction. Dog catchers have won more votes. Lol
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.
I'm asking this question again. I'm really curious to know your view on this. The question is in response to your earlier write up already quoted.
Are you saying in these house races that the candidates themselves are pawns on the political chess board between the Duopoly?
"I don't buy that. Politics in the house races are local. I don't know enough about the candidates to comment much except for the fact that the Dem tried to position himself as a centrist. Do you believe that if alexandra ocasio cortez was the Dem running in OH-12 that the outcome would be exactly the same (a tightly contested race) or a possible win by her because she's a young, fresh face?"
While I think that this election is going to be pretty much a national one, sure, local candidates do matter. But remember that primaries usually sort that out.
Ocasio-Cortez wouldn't be the nominee in this race.
I really can't think of too many races where the 'wrong Democrat' won the primary for purposes of the general. We've been rather lucky this year. Meanwhile, the GOP has thrown away several districts when bad candidates won their primaries.
I think there's an interesting situation that might develop in Kansas. There are TWO congressional districts in Kansas that are being hotly contested (and a third where the GOP is spending oddly for a supposedly safe seat). If Kris Kobach unseats interim governor Colyer, which he might, I think that Trump + Kobach might torpedo Yoder and KS 02.
---
The number of contra-party Congressmen (Congresspeople that represent districts that significantly vote for the other party in state and local elections) are becoming very scarce.
(08-07-2018 10:09 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: Whatever makes you feel better Tom. I can only imagine your post had the DEM won. I could care less about margin of victory. Some districts are true battlegrounds and it will be close regardless. Onward and upward MAGA/KEEP AMERICA GREAT!
W's, a W, is a W.
Ive never celebrated a close loss. I've waaaaaay over celebrated a close win versus a blowout. Blowouts are easy and boring, like 2016...
Missouri voters rejected "Right to Work" by a stunning 65-35 vote
Kansas Governor - Colyer is hanging on by a thread over Kansan Kris Kobach. Most of the remaining vote is in Johnson County, which is far less Kobach friendly. If Colyer hangs on, its good news for the Kansas GOP, but a loss for Trump.
Michigan Governor - Whitmer is ahead of El-Sayed right now
Washington results are coming in. The early results are absolutely AWFUL for the GOP. Its a jungle primary, like California. WA-03, the incumbent Republican (Herrea-Beutler) is currently BEHIND her Democratic opponent in a district barely on the radar of anyone. In WA-05 (Spokane), Rodgers (a member of the Republican house leadership) has 47 against 3 Dem challengers. Not a good sign in that district.. In WA 08 (Open R - Clinton district). Dem vote is 50-47. Perrenial GOP candidate Dino Rossi will be the GOP nominee. Let me put it this way, I think the Dems take around 35-40 seats. I didn't have McMorris Rodgers or Herrera-Beutler anywhere near my list of districts that were gonna flip. Didn't have Ohio 12, all of which need to be added to the potential seats for November. The field appears to be expanding for the Dems.
My God, if the Republicans are going to have to worry about holding seats in Spokane, Omaha, Topeka, and Eastern Kansas.....yipes.
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2018 11:46 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: 1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.
I mean, I paid my expenses through under-grad, then paid my way through grad skool, but admittedly went to a decent public and not a 50G a year place like over-priced, over-rated (in every way) place like GW in tony Georgetown.
I know you're just pulling random numbers out of thin air, but we'll see. I just watched one of his ads, and it's powerful stuff. This guy is genuinely what you wished corey booker was. He's also a Ranger, so you know he will outwork his opponent.
I can already picture President Trump doing a great, beautiful rally with him at Little Ceasers Arena in front of a HUGE 20k+, standing room only crowd.
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2018 11:49 PM by Kronke.)
I know you're just pulling random numbers out of thin air, but we'll see. I just watched one of his ads, and it's powerful stuff. This guy is genuinely what you wished corey booker was. He's also a Ranger, so you know he will outwork his opponent.
I can already picture President Trump doing a great, beautiful rally with him at Little Ceasers Arena in front of a HUGE 20k+, standing room only crowd.
Meh, I don't think Trump's hollering mob schtick really moves voters anymore. If anything, they might be counterproductive. They might bring out some of his voters, but I suspect they offend more voters who then vote for the Dems. However, I note that Ted Cruz did ask Trump to come to Texas to speak. Didn't work for Conor Lamb or Roy Moore.
BTW, I think Balderson was helped more by the fact that he got the support of Trump AND Kasich. Kasich's endorsement probably helped Balderson in Delaware County. Most places don't have a moderate Republican (and a VERY popular one at that) to clean up on Aisle 2 after Trump and his legions of unhinged screamers scares the bejeezus out of moderate but Republican leaning voters.
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2018 12:01 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
I know you're just pulling random numbers out of thin air, but we'll see. I just watched one of his ads, and it's powerful stuff. This guy is genuinely what you wished corey booker was. He's also a Ranger, so you know he will outwork his opponent.
I can already picture President Trump doing a great, beautiful rally with him at Little Ceasers Arena in front of a HUGE 20k+, standing room only crowd.
Meh, I don't think Trump's hollering mob schtick really moves voters anymore. If anything, they might be counterproductive. They might bring out some of his voters, but I suspect they offend more voters who then vote for the Dems. However, I note that Ted Cruz did ask Trump to come to Texas to speak. Didn't work for Conor Lamb or Roy Moore.
BTW, I think Balderson was helped more by the fact that he got the support of Trump AND Kasich. Kasich's endorsement probably helped Balderson in Delaware County. Most places don't have a moderate Republican (and a VERY popular one at that) to clean up on Aisle 2 after Trump and his legions of unhinged screamers scares the bejeezus out of moderate but Republican leaning voters.
I know you're just pulling random numbers out of thin air, but we'll see. I just watched one of his ads, and it's powerful stuff. This guy is genuinely what you wished corey booker was. He's also a Ranger, so you know he will outwork his opponent.
I can already picture President Trump doing a great, beautiful rally with him at Little Ceasers Arena in front of a HUGE 20k+, standing room only crowd.
Meh, I don't think Trump's hollering mob schtick really moves voters anymore. If anything, they might be counterproductive. They might bring out some of his voters, but I suspect they offend more voters who then vote for the Dems. However, I note that Ted Cruz did ask Trump to come to Texas to speak. Didn't work for Conor Lamb or Roy Moore.
BTW, I think Balderson was helped more by the fact that he got the support of Trump AND Kasich. Kasich's endorsement probably helped Balderson in Delaware County. Most places don't have a moderate Republican (and a VERY popular one at that) to clean up on Aisle 2 after Trump and his legions of unhinged screamers scares the bejeezus out of moderate but Republican leaning voters.
I saw that tweet, too.
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2018 12:19 AM by Kronke.)
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