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Alabama special election
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 09:51 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Doug Jones voted with 4 other Dems to kee the government open, without a DACA fix. Proving he is totally lock-in-step with Schumer as expected.

Which proves nothing, because his vote was meaningless. I'm pretty sure Schumer told him, "Don't need you on this one, vote to save your ass." Let's see what happens if they come close enough to a deal that his vote matters. Then let's see what he does. That will prove something.
01-20-2018 10:48 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 10:48 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(01-20-2018 09:51 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Doug Jones voted with 4 other Dems to kee the government open, without a DACA fix. Proving he is totally lock-in-step with Schumer as expected.

Which proves nothing, because his vote was meaningless. I'm pretty sure Schumer told him, "Don't need you on this one, vote to save your ass." Let's see what happens if they come close enough to a deal that his vote matters. Then let's see what he does. That will prove something.

Ok.

This fits my original thesis which is that Jones is afforded significant freedom because of his status as a Dem in a red state, and he needs to show he isn’t just a puppet of the party to get re-elected and keep a flipped Seat.
01-20-2018 03:01 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 10:19 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Or perhaps Schumer has leeway in helping Senators in voting, and actually knows that Jones will need all the help he can generate.

One vote, especially with 'slack' to conspicuously allow red-state Senators to vote in a way that will help their re-election proves nothing. The real rubber hits the road when Schumer has no leeway in votes.

By the way Lad, before your proclamation, I suggest you look at the Democratic Senators who voted against a government shutdown. They all (except for Jones) share a common trait; and most share with Jones another trait.

I wouldn't base a somewhat proclamative statement on the basis of vote given the makeup of the Democratic 'defector' votes; and I actually meant the quotes......

It could very well be that Doug Jones will not be a Schumer hand puppet. But, this vote (in particular) actually proves very little.

My original thesis was just that - that Jones would actually be encouraged to break with the party when necessary. I got push back on that theory.
01-20-2018 03:03 PM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Alabama special election
Your thesis seemed to be that he would not be beholden in the slightest to Chuck Schumer. For what it is worth, I see Jones having the same issues in play that Scott Brown had. Turns out Scott was a little too much in Republican mainstream pocket to stick; it will be interesting to see how Chuck Schumer plays the card.

Chuck has two options --- give contrived leeway but not when it counts; or allow a maverick Democrat.

Much like the option underway with Joe Manchin.

But I don't see the survivability with the voters of Alabama for the former, and I don't see Jones being a 'productive' Democrat with the latter. Kind of a Hobson's choice for Schumer.

Republicans have had this issue with Ayotte and Collins (and to a lesser extent Specter in Pennsylvania before he flipped) --- and knowing a number of people in Senate staffs I know for a fact that these were/are highly problematic in terms of policy. Have to endure a lot of non-support for key Party agendas, which is doable when you have votes to spare. Very painful when you dont.

If Jones can chart a 'Manchin' or 'Collins' course, the better for him and kudos if he can. I just dont see that happening as Alabama is a long-term deep red state, as opposed to new-fangled 'we can vote for the party of Lincoln' state that WV seems to be and the somewhat moderate state that Maine is.

And *once* Schumer needs a vote that cuts across Jones' best interests, *that* is when you will see which it is.

Your thesis is a best unproven, since it is not known whether Jones will be a Schumer hand puppet or not. His vote on this was moot and irrelevant, thus of no real importance to Schumer. This wasnt a test in the absolute slightest. Had one or two votes mattered, you would have evidence promoting your thesis, and evidence to the contrary on the the opposite.

However, the contra-thesis of him being a hand puppet is at the same time not really moved forward or back given the structure of the vote. Jury is still out for *both* viewpoints.
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2018 04:41 PM by tanqtonic.)
01-20-2018 04:36 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 03:03 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  My original thesis was just that - that Jones would actually be encouraged to break with the party when necessary.

I think if you replace the word "encouraged" with "allowed", you may have something.
01-20-2018 04:41 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Alabama special election
Here is the question. If republicans had 59 other votes, would Jones have been allowed to vote yes. I doubt it. We may—or may not—find out before this is over.
01-20-2018 08:15 PM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Here is the question. If republicans had 59 other votes, would Jones have been allowed to vote yes. I doubt it. We may—or may not—find out before this is over.

Just for ***** and giggles, lets make predictions on the length of the shutdown, effective from 12:01 am Eastern this morning. I'm in for 12 days (288 hours).

Kicking the can down the road is ending *this* shutdown.... just to be clear. If money flows and operations resume, even for just a couple of hours, that delimits the shutdown....
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2018 08:42 PM by tanqtonic.)
01-20-2018 08:38 PM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Alabama special election
This episode has highlighted to me that the whip's job has decreased dramatically in the last 12 years. We are knee deep in a party institutional era of voting, where, instead of having to track and cajole 14 members, at most 4 members per side are in any sort of question of voting (ever).
01-20-2018 08:42 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 08:38 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(01-20-2018 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Here is the question. If republicans had 59 other votes, would Jones have been allowed to vote yes. I doubt it. We may—or may not—find out before this is over.

Just for ***** and giggles, lets make predictions on the length of the shutdown, effective from 12:01 am Eastern this morning. I'm in for 12 days (288 hours).

Kicking the can down the road is ending *this* shutdown.... just to be clear. If money flows and operations resume, even for just a couple of hours, that delimits the shutdown....

That sounds about right. But the bigger question is who caves in?
01-20-2018 10:14 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Alabama special election
(01-20-2018 10:14 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(01-20-2018 08:38 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(01-20-2018 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Here is the question. If republicans had 59 other votes, would Jones have been allowed to vote yes. I doubt it. We may—or may not—find out before this is over.
Just for ***** and giggles, lets make predictions on the length of the shutdown, effective from 12:01 am Eastern this morning. I'm in for 12 days (288 hours).
Kicking the can down the road is ending *this* shutdown.... just to be clear. If money flows and operations resume, even for just a couple of hours, that delimits the shutdown....
That sounds about right. But the bigger question is who caves in?

That depends on who has the better spin machine. In the past, that has been democrats, aided by left-leaning media.

I don't agree with either side on the DACA issue. We can't send them, and certainly not 11 million illegals, back to Mexico. Mexico can't absorb them, so that turns Mexico into a failed state. And we don't need Somalia on our souther border. On the other hand, citizenship for anyone who came here illegally rewards bad behavior and mocks the rule of law. I think permanent resident alien status is the best answer, pretty much what every other country does.
01-20-2018 10:45 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Alabama special election
62 hours
01-20-2018 11:15 PM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Alabama special election
We have a winner in Optimistic Owl. Wow, that towel being thrown in was in an amazingly short time....
01-22-2018 01:51 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #113
RE: Alabama special election
Schumer caved. Plan was to blame it on republicans with the aid of their buddies in the MSM. Republicans once again did a horse crap job refuting the lie, but at least it was enough this time. They know it’s coming again in three weeks, so get ready to do a better job with the PR next time.

Schumer saw the polls, the lie wasn’t selling, so he caved. Merry
01-22-2018 02:28 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #114
RE: Alabama special election
As much as I am interested in and follow politics, I tend to avoid discussing them on pseudo-anonymous forums. That said, for some reason I decided to click on this thread and 2 things irked me a little...

(12-12-2017 02:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Supporting full-term abortions is going to strike 65% of them as bad. And Jones has been very equivocal in his comments about abortion. I'm pro-choice, but with limits. I could not vote for someone who favors abortion all the way to full term. Period.

I get irritated anytime I see anyone mention the idea of "full term" abortions. My wife is an OB/GYN and I know, unsurprisingly, a lot of OB/GYNs. None of them would ever perform an elective full-term (i.e., 36 weeks into gestation) termination. It is insane to believe this is an actual problem. I'm guessing 99.99% of people are against elective full-term abortions if they really think about what that means. And before you try to contradict me, lets see if any liberals or democrats or progressives speak up in favor of them. They are a the reddest of red herrings. The very rare cases this late in term are where the physician determines that the fetus/baby (to avoid an semantical discussion) is essentially dead or not going to survive. I think anyone performing elective full-term abortions would be in gross violation of the hippocratic oath. My concern with laws that outlaw a procedure that no one performs is that it will then allow non-physicians to look over the shoulders of physicians in a way that I do not believe is appropriate. A sentiment that I would think libertarians could sympathize with.

(12-13-2017 10:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And I despise Chucky Schumer.

To be clear, I also despise Roy Moore, and could not vote for him either, even disregarding the sexual allegations.

Does anyone call him "Chucky"? If not, then I think it would behoove us all to try and raise the level of political discourse above the level to which many politicians on both sides (and at all levels of government) have lowered it. It is probably a losing battle, but I still think it is worth bringing up. I think it distracts from the more important and well-articulated points you are trying to make. But maybe it is just me?
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2018 12:21 PM by mrbig.)
02-15-2018 12:16 PM
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georgewebb Offline
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Post: #115
RE: Alabama special election
(02-15-2018 12:16 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I get irritated anytime I see anyone mention the idea of "full term" abortions. My wife is an OB/GYN and I know, unsurprisingly, a lot of OB/GYNs. None of them would ever perform an elective full-term (i.e., 36 weeks into gestation) termination. It is insane to believe this is an actual problem. I'm guessing 99.99% of people are against elective full-term abortions if they really think about what that means. And before you try to contradict me, lets see if any liberals or democrats or progressives speak up in favor of them. They are a the reddest of red herrings.

It is such a red herring that 4/5 of the Supreme Court think that late-term abortions are a constitutional right -- and that doesn't even count the litigants and lobbying groups who are willing to devote tens of thousands of hours time and millions of dollars to arguing for this supposed red herring, and the politicians who support them. It seems there are plenty of self-styled "progressives" who not only defend the practice, but defend it vigorously and even uphold it.
02-15-2018 12:26 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #116
RE: Alabama special election
(02-15-2018 12:26 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 12:16 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I get irritated anytime I see anyone mention the idea of "full term" abortions. My wife is an OB/GYN and I know, unsurprisingly, a lot of OB/GYNs. None of them would ever perform an elective full-term (i.e., 36 weeks into gestation) termination. It is insane to believe this is an actual problem. I'm guessing 99.99% of people are against elective full-term abortions if they really think about what that means. And before you try to contradict me, lets see if any liberals or democrats or progressives speak up in favor of them. They are a the reddest of red herrings.

It is such a red herring that 4/5 of the Supreme Court think that late-term abortions are a constitutional right -- and that doesn't even count the litigants and lobbying groups who are willing to devote tens of thousands of hours time and millions of dollars to arguing for this supposed red herring, and the politicians who support them. It seems there are plenty of self-styled "progressives" who not only defend the practice, but defend it vigorously and even uphold it.

Well if I am wrong, then both I and they are idiots! (for different reasons) I am an attorney, but haven't researched abortion law. It would surprise me if the rulings of the Supremes are quite that clearcut on the issue. Any my comment was limited to elective abortions, which is the implication when most people mention full-term or 3rd trimester abortions.

I can understand not supporting laws that outlaw these abortions (that basically never happen) for the reasons I mentioned. But I can't imagine supporting the idea that a woman who is 40 weeks into her pregnancy with a healthy fetus/baby and elect to terminate. I also can't imagine any OB/GYNs, who I can assure you did not get into that field to terminate full-term fetuses, performing such an elective procedure.
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2018 12:51 PM by mrbig.)
02-15-2018 12:36 PM
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georgewebb Offline
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Post: #117
RE: Alabama special election
(02-15-2018 12:36 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I can understand not supporting laws that outlaw these abortions (that basically never happen) for the reasons I mentioned. But I can't imagine supporting the idea that a woman who is 40 weeks into her pregnancy with a healthy fetus/baby and elect to terminate. I also can't imagine any OB/GYNs, who I can assure you did not get into that field to terminate full-term fetuses, performing such an elective procedure.

I agree -- but NARAL and other diehards do not. For some reason, they have staked their colors to the mast for abortion anywhere, anyhow, anytime. And of course, they also have made it a point to oppose things like wrongful death damages when a child in the womb is killed by, say, a drunk driver -- essentially anything that might conflict with the absolutist position that an unborn baby is inert property, full stop. Even though, as you point out, that position is completely incompatible with medical knowledge and medical practice, and is repugnant to most human beings.

I am pretty sure that if the legislative process were left to its own devices, most states would have long ago ended up in a middle ground where abortion is permitted in some circumstances and not in others -- as it should be. Kicking the question to the courts has only led to absolutism on either side: legislators who can pass laws knowing they will not be upheld, and advocacy groups who have abandoned any interest in political compromise.
02-15-2018 02:28 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #118
RE: Alabama special election
(02-15-2018 02:28 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 12:36 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I can understand not supporting laws that outlaw these abortions (that basically never happen) for the reasons I mentioned. But I can't imagine supporting the idea that a woman who is 40 weeks into her pregnancy with a healthy fetus/baby and elect to terminate. I also can't imagine any OB/GYNs, who I can assure you did not get into that field to terminate full-term fetuses, performing such an elective procedure.

I agree -- but NARAL and other diehards do not. For some reason, they have staked their colors to the mast for abortion anywhere, anyhow, anytime.

I agree with most of your post. I just wasn't sure where you were drawing this info from. I looked at NARAL's issues page (something I have never done before) and didn't see anything addressing the specific issue of elective full-term or 3rd trimester abortions.

My larger point is that, if these actually happen, I'm not sure they happen on the scale that merits government oversight of all instances where a pregnancy must be terminated for medically-necessary reasons. My opinion could be swayed if there are statistics from an independent and reliable source showing that elective full-term or 3rd-trimester abortions happen more than I realize. I just don't perceive to to be a real problem. There are many ways the government could act to save lives in a more efficient way (even if you want to avoid hot-button topics like access to health care and gun control).
02-15-2018 03:23 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #119
RE: Alabama special election
(02-15-2018 03:23 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 02:28 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 12:36 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I can understand not supporting laws that outlaw these abortions (that basically never happen) for the reasons I mentioned. But I can't imagine supporting the idea that a woman who is 40 weeks into her pregnancy with a healthy fetus/baby and elect to terminate. I also can't imagine any OB/GYNs, who I can assure you did not get into that field to terminate full-term fetuses, performing such an elective procedure.
I agree -- but NARAL and other diehards do not. For some reason, they have staked their colors to the mast for abortion anywhere, anyhow, anytime.
I agree with most of your post. I just wasn't sure where you were drawing this info from. I looked at NARAL's issues page (something I have never done before) and didn't see anything addressing the specific issue of elective full-term or 3rd trimester abortions.
My larger point is that, if these actually happen, I'm not sure they happen on the scale that merits government oversight of all instances where a pregnancy must be terminated for medically-necessary reasons. My opinion could be swayed if there are statistics from an independent and reliable source showing that elective full-term or 3rd-trimester abortions happen more than I realize. I just don't perceive to to be a real problem. There are many ways the government could act to save lives in a more efficient way (even if you want to avoid hot-button topics like access to health care and gun control).

That they happen ever--absent truly compelling justification--is awful. As generally a conservative, but not a social conservative, I believe that the proper "conservative" position on this issue is the one that worked pretty well for about the first 150 years or so of the republic--OK in first trimester, must be necessary to prevent death of mother or other great harm after that. I believe life begins at conception, and that the unborn acquire rights at that time, but those rights don't outweigh the mother's until the pregnancy has progressed.
02-15-2018 07:33 PM
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