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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 07:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 11:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Doug Jones has a tremendous opportunity to accomplish something worthwhile by being the kind of moderate centrist he promised to be during the campaign. If he does, he will represent the people of Alabama well. But I'm quite certain that Chucky Schumer will be doing everything he can to prevent that. Who will win? Time will tell.

I’m confused - Jones pledged to be a centrist? Weren’t we just earlier saying he was anti-choice everything and he was a foregone puppet of Schumer?

If he was openly pledging to be a centrist, I don’t understand how anyone on here could have really felt they couldn’t have voted for him because of his views, b/c a centrist Dem will align with a centrist Rep on a lot of issues.

Here's his campaign site:
https://dougjonesforsenate.com/priorities/

Really, unless and until the Dems retake the Senate, it will be hard to judge how he's going to vote. Right now legislation hinges more on whether Mitch can get the small number of moderate/maverick Rs on board. He's not even attempting to pick off Dems.
12-13-2017 08:35 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 07:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 11:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Doug Jones has a tremendous opportunity to accomplish something worthwhile by being the kind of moderate centrist he promised to be during the campaign. If he does, he will represent the people of Alabama well. But I'm quite certain that Chucky Schumer will be doing everything he can to prevent that. Who will win? Time will tell.
I’m confused - Jones pledged to be a centrist? Weren’t we just earlier saying he was anti-choice everything and he was a foregone puppet of Schumer?
If he was openly pledging to be a centrist, I don’t understand how anyone on here could have really felt they couldn’t have voted for him because of his views, b/c a centrist Dem will align with a centrist Rep on a lot of issues.

He claimed to be a centrist because he had to in order to win. But I don't believe he can or will be. He's going to be the junior senator if the whole senate. He's going to have no power. I don't believe it is possible to remain a centrist in that body, unless you have a huge power base either at home or nationally.

I would put the number of true centrists/moderates in the senate at one--Susan Collins. I don't see him being able to join her. I hope he can--it would be great for both the senate and Alabama if he could--but when Chuck Schumer explains to him how the game is played--and the consequences for not playing that way--I expect his days as a centrist will be over.

I hope this pouts an end to the political career of now three-time loser Roy Moore. And I hope it finally sends a message to republicans--don't nominate idiots. They're the only thing standing between us and the collectivist, redistributionist policies of the democrat far left, and that is too important to screw up on wackos like Moore.
12-13-2017 08:41 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 07:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Weren’t we just earlier saying...he was a foregone puppet of Schumer?

Be sure to note it here the first time Jones and Schumer vote differently on any question. I won't be holding my breath.
12-13-2017 10:10 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 10:10 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 07:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Weren’t we just earlier saying...he was a foregone puppet of Schumer?

Be sure to note it here the first time Jones and Schumer vote differently on any question. I won't be holding my breath.

Sure thing.

But I'm super confused at this board. Earlier he was being called the lesser of two evils because he was a liberal democrat who would vote in lockstep with the Dems and as the reason to why he couldn't get the Reps on this boards hypothetical votes.

Then, he is being called a Dem who ran as a centrist, which means that his views would inevitably align with some views of the Reps on the board, which means that it would make sense that their hypothetical vote would go towards Jones, as opposed to Moore, if their ideology wasn't truly partisan.

So there seems to be a disconnect, unless I'm misunderstanding something. Because it really just sounds like, no matter what, none of y'all would have voted for the most conservative Dem in the world over Moore because you put party politics first. It's fine, just admit it.
12-13-2017 10:17 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 10:17 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 10:10 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 07:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Weren’t we just earlier saying...he was a foregone puppet of Schumer?
Be sure to note it here the first time Jones and Schumer vote differently on any question. I won't be holding my breath.
Sure thing.
But I'm super confused at this board. Earlier he was being called the lesser of two evils because he was a liberal democrat who would vote in lockstep with the Dems and as the reason to why he couldn't get the Reps on this boards hypothetical votes.
Then, he is being called a Dem who ran as a centrist, which means that his views would inevitably align with some views of the Reps on the board, which means that it would make sense that their hypothetical vote would go towards Jones, as opposed to Moore, if their ideology wasn't truly partisan.
So there seems to be a disconnect, unless I'm misunderstanding something. Because it really just sounds like, no matter what, none of y'all would have voted for the most conservative Dem in the world over Moore because you put party politics first. It's fine, just admit it.

The disconnect is between his words and what we expect he will do. He says he will do A. I believe he will do B. Capiche?

He ran as a centrist. That doesn't mean he is one. And it sure as hell doesn't mean he will vote as one in Washington.

What he says doesn't matter. What he does, does.

Be sure to do as OO asked and point to the first time he bucks Schumer. I won't hold my breath.
12-13-2017 10:22 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 10:22 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 10:17 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 10:10 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 07:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Weren’t we just earlier saying...he was a foregone puppet of Schumer?
Be sure to note it here the first time Jones and Schumer vote differently on any question. I won't be holding my breath.
Sure thing.
But I'm super confused at this board. Earlier he was being called the lesser of two evils because he was a liberal democrat who would vote in lockstep with the Dems and as the reason to why he couldn't get the Reps on this boards hypothetical votes.
Then, he is being called a Dem who ran as a centrist, which means that his views would inevitably align with some views of the Reps on the board, which means that it would make sense that their hypothetical vote would go towards Jones, as opposed to Moore, if their ideology wasn't truly partisan.
So there seems to be a disconnect, unless I'm misunderstanding something. Because it really just sounds like, no matter what, none of y'all would have voted for the most conservative Dem in the world over Moore because you put party politics first. It's fine, just admit it.

The disconnect is between his words and what we expect he will do. He says he will do A. I believe he will do B. Capiche?

He ran as a centrist. That doesn't mean he is one. And it sure as hell doesn't mean he will vote as one in Washington.

What he says doesn't matter. What he does, does.

Be sure to do as OO asked and point to the first time he bucks Schumer. I won't hold my breath.

Thanks for the clarification.

This means that, regardless of who ran, the Dem would never have gotten your hypothetical vote. That's what I'm trying to point out.

You complain in the other thread about the youth causing the shift in polarization, yet that sounds pretty partisan and polarizing right there.
12-13-2017 10:29 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 10:29 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Thanks for the clarification.
This means that, regardless of who ran, the Dem would never have gotten your hypothetical vote. That's what I'm trying to point out.
You complain in the other thread about the youth causing the shift in polarization, yet that sounds pretty partisan and polarizing right there.

Kindly either 1) point out where I said that the youth cased the shift in polarization, or 2) stop lying and mischaracterizing my posts.

I could have voted for a democrat who convinced me that he was and could and would remain an independent. What that would require is a sufficient local or national power base to convince me that he or she could stand up to the Schumers and Pelosis of the world. I could vote for Charles Barkley, who used to be a republican but stumped for Jones. I could vote for Nick Saban if he ran as a centrist democrats (I have no ideas of his political views, if he even has any). But I fail to see how Doug Jones has the staying power to be anything but Chucky Schumer's lapdog. And I despise Chucky Schumer.

To be clear, I also despise Roy Moore, and could not vote for him either, even disregarding the sexual allegations.

Let me ask you a question. Do you seriously expect Jones to do anything but fall into line where Schumer tells him to?
(This post was last modified: 12-13-2017 10:57 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
12-13-2017 10:51 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 10:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 10:29 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Thanks for the clarification.
This means that, regardless of who ran, the Dem would never have gotten your hypothetical vote. That's what I'm trying to point out.
You complain in the other thread about the youth causing the shift in polarization, yet that sounds pretty partisan and polarizing right there.

Kindly either 1) point out where I said that the youth cased the shift in polarization, or 2) stop lying and mischaracterizing my posts.

I could have voted for a democrat who convinced me that he was and could and would remain an independent. What that would require is a sufficient local or national power base to convince me that he or she could stand up to the Schumers and Pelosis of the world. I could vote for Charles Barkley, who used to be a republican but stumped for Jones. I could vote for Nick Saban if he ran as a centrist democrats (I have no ideas of his political views, if he even has any). But I fail to see how Doug Jones has the staying power to be anything but Chucky Schumer's lapdog. And I despise Chucky Schumer.

To be clear, I also despise Roy Moore, and could not vote for him either, even disregarding the sexual allegations.

Let me ask you a question. Do you seriously expect Jones to do anything but fall into line where Schumer tells him to?

I posted where it seemed like you suggested that in the Trump admin thread.

To your other question, I actually think it's more likely Jones votes how he wants to vote than how the Dems want him to. If he wants any shot at keeping his seat, it will require him to be able to say firmly, that he voted in the best interest of his constituents, and if he can point to a few votes against Schumer and the leadership, that would be big. He stole a seat that the Dems aren't supposed to have, so there's no risk that the Dems would actively campaign against him in the next election because they would just be throwing their money away.

Jones' only hope for reelection is to actually avoid what you think he will do.
12-13-2017 11:31 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Alabama special election
My prediction: Dems will argue his voting record proves he's a moderate and R's will think it proves he's a "far left liberal". And both will be sincere in their beliefs.
12-13-2017 11:38 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 08:41 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  He's going to have no power. I don't believe it is possible to remain a centrist in that body, unless you have a huge power base either at home or nationally.

Or if you are not planning on running for reelection or think the chances of winning it are slim to none. Then you probably vote your conscience. I think that will have more affect on him that Schumer.
12-13-2017 11:42 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 11:31 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 10:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 10:29 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Thanks for the clarification.
This means that, regardless of who ran, the Dem would never have gotten your hypothetical vote. That's what I'm trying to point out.
You complain in the other thread about the youth causing the shift in polarization, yet that sounds pretty partisan and polarizing right there.
Kindly either 1) point out where I said that the youth cased the shift in polarization, or 2) stop lying and mischaracterizing my posts.
I could have voted for a democrat who convinced me that he was and could and would remain an independent. What that would require is a sufficient local or national power base to convince me that he or she could stand up to the Schumers and Pelosis of the world. I could vote for Charles Barkley, who used to be a republican but stumped for Jones. I could vote for Nick Saban if he ran as a centrist democrats (I have no ideas of his political views, if he even has any). But I fail to see how Doug Jones has the staying power to be anything but Chucky Schumer's lapdog. And I despise Chucky Schumer.
To be clear, I also despise Roy Moore, and could not vote for him either, even disregarding the sexual allegations.
Let me ask you a question. Do you seriously expect Jones to do anything but fall into line where Schumer tells him to?
I posted where it seemed like you suggested that in the Trump admin thread.

Except I didn't say that there either, did I? Here or there, quote where I said that. I didn't, and you know I didn't.

Quote:To your other question, I actually think it's more likely Jones votes how he wants to vote than how the Dems want him to. If he wants any shot at keeping his seat, it will require him to be able to say firmly, that he voted in the best interest of his constituents, and if he can point to a few votes against Schumer and the leadership, that would be big. He stole a seat that the Dems aren't supposed to have, so there's no risk that the Dems would actively campaign against him in the next election because they would just be throwing their money away.
Jones' only hope for reelection is to actually avoid what you think he will do.

Jones's only hope for re-election is to become anti-abortion, and he knows that. In a state where 65% of the population is anti-abortion, he has no chance against any republican who isn't crazy. His best career option is to suck up to Chuck and get rewarded with some cushy law firm partnership in 2021.
12-13-2017 11:55 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 11:38 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  My prediction: Dems will argue his voting record proves he's a moderate and R's will think it proves he's a "far left liberal". And both will be sincere in their beliefs.

His voting record will be his voting record. The calculation will be simple--number of times voting with Schumer versus number of times voting against Schumer. I predict out will be a whole lot to not very many, if any. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

(12-13-2017 11:42 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 08:41 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  He's going to have no power. I don't believe it is possible to remain a centrist in that body, unless you have a huge power base either at home or nationally.
Or if you are not planning on running for reelection or think the chances of winning it are slim to none. Then you probably vote your conscience. I think that will have more affect on him that Schumer.

He will have two choices: One, kowtow to the democrat establishment and get fixed up with a cushy sinecure in a DC law/lobbying firm when the inevitable defeat comes in 2020, or, two, stand up and take an independent stand, and go back to Birmingham when it's over.

I hope he is strong enough to make the right choice. I thought Joe Manchin was strong enough to do it, but looks like no.
12-13-2017 12:08 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Alabama special election
Interestingly, Moore is refusing to concede. Not sure what rationale there is for that.

Anyway, surely McConnell will seat Jones before the tax bill vote, like Reid did Scott Brown ahead of important Obamacare votes.
12-14-2017 12:29 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Alabama special election
(12-13-2017 12:08 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  His voting record will be his voting record. The calculation will be simple--number of times voting with Schumer versus number of times voting against Schumer. I predict out will be a whole lot to not very many, if any. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.


Technically, it won't be simple - not all votes are equal, or understandable without context. But no doubt multiple polisci profs will have graduate students aggregate and crunch numbers for them so that we don't have to. I'll still be surprised if it's definitive one way or the other. Susan Collins votes with McConnell the overwhelming majority of the time by many measures.

https://projects.propublica.org/represen...onnell/115

So she votes with McConnel 88% of the time. But I would agree that she is a true moderate.
12-14-2017 12:38 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Alabama special election
(12-14-2017 12:38 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  
(12-13-2017 12:08 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  His voting record will be his voting record. The calculation will be simple--number of times voting with Schumer versus number of times voting against Schumer. I predict out will be a whole lot to not very many, if any. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.


Technically, it won't be simple - not all votes are equal, or understandable without context. But no doubt multiple polisci profs will have graduate students aggregate and crunch numbers for them so that we don't have to. I'll still be surprised if it's definitive one way or the other. Susan Collins votes with McConnell the overwhelming majority of the time by many measures.

https://projects.propublica.org/represen...onnell/115

So she votes with McConnel 88% of the time. But I would agree that she is a true moderate.

If 88% is the over/under on Jones voting with Schumer, give me the over. And remember, I asked for a notice when he firsts votes the other way.
12-14-2017 12:52 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Alabama special election
Here's a more visual representation using DW nominate:

https://voteview.com/congress/senate

Collins is clearly a little different than most Republicans, but also groups with them better than with the Dems.

So I guess I'd say DW nominate is not a simple calculation, but it might be a simple determination for us, once some else does the calculating...
12-14-2017 12:55 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Alabama special election
(12-12-2017 08:36 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 07:42 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Moore spokesman left literally speechless when told you don't have to swear on a Christian bible to hold office.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/t...709PMStory

I am SHOCKED, shocked, I tell you, that Roy Moore's spokesman is not well versed on these kind of legal matters.

After all, he is representing someone who believes Muslim's can't serve in Congress (see video) and ordered judges to defy Supreme Court decisions.

I hadn't noticed the first time, but at the end he wishes Tapper, who is Jewish, Merry Christmas. Now I don't think there was any intentional malice toward Tapper in that. But it's a good example of why many of us say Happy Holidays or Season's Greetings when we are speaking either to someone whose religious background is unknown or to a group of people of different religions. And of course people have been doing that for decades.
12-14-2017 02:45 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Alabama special election
(12-14-2017 02:45 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 08:36 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(12-12-2017 07:42 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwlStill Wrote:  Moore spokesman left literally speechless when told you don't have to swear on a Christian bible to hold office.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/t...709PMStory

I am SHOCKED, shocked, I tell you, that Roy Moore's spokesman is not well versed on these kind of legal matters.

After all, he is representing someone who believes Muslim's can't serve in Congress (see video) and ordered judges to defy Supreme Court decisions.

I hadn't noticed the first time, but at the end he wishes Tapper, who is Jewish, Merry Christmas. Now I don't think there was any intentional malice toward Tapper in that. But it's a good example of why many of us say Happy Holidays or Season's Greetings when we are speaking either to someone whose religious background is unknown or to a group of people of different religions. And of course people have been doing that for decades.

That happened with Tapper the other day with another guest and he publicly said it wasn't a problem. But I agree with that being the reason why you say Happy Holidays when it isn't Christmas Day itself. I also think that, should someone say Merry Christmas to you and you don't celebrate it, you act like Tapper and just move on with your day.
12-14-2017 02:52 PM
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Post: #59
RE: Alabama special election
Personally, I don't celebrate "Christmas' much. Not a fan of the music or the specials. No small children or grandchildren. Not religious. I will probably spend December 25th in a casino, if I am lucky enough to find one open. If some misguided soul wishes me a Merry Christmas or a Happy Holiday ro whatever, I will graciously accept their well wishes, but I would just as soon forget the whole thing.

But I note that on calendars, it is marked "Christmas", not "Holiday". Banks and post offices close for Christmas, not Holiday. Employees are given Christmas off, not Holiday.

Not a BFD, IMO. I wish you all a very merry Monday after next, and a Happy New Year.
12-14-2017 03:42 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Alabama special election
(12-14-2017 03:42 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Personally, I don't celebrate "Christmas' much. Not a fan of the music or the specials. No small children or grandchildren. Not religious. I will probably spend December 25th in a casino, if I am lucky enough to find one open. If some misguided soul wishes me a Merry Christmas or a Happy Holiday ro whatever, I will graciously accept their well wishes, but I would just as soon forget the whole thing.

But I note that on calendars, it is marked "Christmas", not "Holiday". Banks and post offices close for Christmas, not Holiday. Employees are given Christmas off, not Holiday.

Not a BFD, IMO. I wish you all a very merry Monday after next, and a Happy New Year.

Yeah, and the date today is not Dec 25th today. Therefore, it makes a lot more sense to say "Happy Holidays" on the days leading up to and after Christmas, as there are a number of holidays celebrated around Dec 25th.

I mean, it isn't called the Holiday Season for entirely PC reasons...
12-14-2017 04:14 PM
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