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Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
B12 has several advantages people are neglecting.

1. Legally it is a power conference. That legal status alone makes them a step up from any G conference.

2. In the middle of the country they can go both ways.....expand east or west. There is a quite a bit of value they can tap into.

3. If need be they could hold the line at 8 schools and still have a championship game. This greatly reduces how deep they need to dip into the G pool for expansion candidates.
11-13-2017 09:41 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 09:41 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  B12 has several advantages people are neglecting.

1. Legally it is a power conference. That legal status alone makes them a step up from any G conference.

2. In the middle of the country they can go both ways.....expand east or west. There is a quite a bit of value they can tap into.

3. If need be they could hold the line at 8 schools and still have a championship game. This greatly reduces how deep they need to dip into the G pool for expansion candidates.

Didn't work for the Big East did it?
11-13-2017 09:55 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 09:55 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 09:41 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  B12 has several advantages people are neglecting.

1. Legally it is a power conference. That legal status alone makes them a step up from any G conference.

2. In the middle of the country they can go both ways.....expand east or west. There is a quite a bit of value they can tap into.

3. If need be they could hold the line at 8 schools and still have a championship game. This greatly reduces how deep they need to dip into the G pool for expansion candidates.

Didn't work for the Big East did it?

It worked just fine for the Big East up until ESPN wanted to consolidate football under a fewer number of conferences. If the proposed arrangement ends in the remaining Big 12 schools getting absorbed into higher-paying conferences it'll be a massive success as far they're concerned.
11-13-2017 10:12 PM
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OdinFrigg Online
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Post: #44
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
The SEC borders every state with a Big 12 school and also has a direct Texas footprint. ISU is close to Kansas, but doesn't border it. WVU is way east. It is largely a north-south conference, not contiguous throughout with itself.
There is no good fix available for the geography. That said, they refused to make it a little better last year with deciding against additions.
I doubt there will be only 4 P5s @ 16 each with the B12 being the nearly sole feeder. Around 2023-2024 there may, but not assured, be a couple to four defections, but the B12 will survive, expanding to surpass the number that departed. Of course those that leave will be bigger names than any schools coming in. The B12 goes for quantity as a survival strategy going forward at that time.

For the SEC and the BIG, they seem content @ 14 each. It is not an unwieldy number and things are profitable. It is doubtful either will choose to go to 16 unless VERY DESIRABLE schools become available and add big-time distribution money to broadcasting contracts.

Agree with cuseroc about the ACC. They are pretty secure for the long haul.

I believe the next move is up to the PAC12.
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 06:18 AM by OdinFrigg.)
11-13-2017 10:19 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think it makes sense for them to grab AAC and MWC teams in or near their footprint
11-13-2017 10:44 PM
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Bigdog731 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think the Big 12 will fall by the wayside like the Southwest Conference did and some will get left behind just as happened back then, which really wasn't that long ago.

The Big 12 didn't expand a year or so ago because the TeeVee partners balked then, for the obvious reasons.
11-13-2017 11:12 PM
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ColKurtz Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
No one is in rush to go to 16. It forces a 9-game schedule, and all the scheduling headaches that brings. It also means a longer time between playing cross-divisional rivals, especially if there is one protected opponent per team. And no one except ND, OK, or UT brings enough with them to be worth extra mouths to feed. Anything above 16 in football is just a stupid idea, period. Presidents vote on these things, not cfb fans.

It did and still does hinge on whether OU decides to leave at the end of the GOR (and if the B1G or SEC are interested). If the Sooners and KU end up in the B1G, I'm not convinced UT has that many options. I don't think the SEC wants them. I'm not even convinced the ACC presidents would invite Texas as long as the myth of ND full membership is dangling out there. Nor do I think the ACC would offer UT a ND-type deal. The ND deal was negotiated in a position of weakness, and that's no longer the case.

So Texas is left trying to get itself and maybe 1 or 3 others into the PAC, and the political crap in the background of that would probably squash that too.

If OU and KU leave, Texas will be stuck trying to prop up the B12 by bringing some G5 teams in. I don't think there is any doubt they'd stay a P5 in that case, but there has to be some pressure in Austin to maybe make itself OU's + 1. If OU and Texas both leave, I don't think the B12 keeps its P5 status very long.
11-13-2017 11:16 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think things are settling down right now. Could change, but it doesn’t seem like there is much appetite for major changes this next TV cycle.
11-13-2017 11:42 PM
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CintiFan Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think Texas and Oklahoma already have a handshake deal to leave the Big 12 as the GOR expires. I have no inside info, but the reason is the way Boren changed his tune during the recent weird expansion attempt.

Boren said the Big 12 was disfunctional and basically worthless, and that was a direct swipe at Texas and its history of looking out for itself not others. He made no secret out of his desire for Oklahoma to leave the Big 12. His criticism continued as they went through the expansion beauty show, but all of a sudden it changed and Oklahoma was happy being in the Big 12 as is, with a conference championship game. That 180 turn in attitude was bizarre. You know there were back office channel discussions with Texas during that time, and with the turnover in Texas leadership it makes sense that those discussions gave Boren the assurance he wanted. A deal to work together and go as a pair to the conference of their choice would explain why Boren suddenly changed his tune.

Oklahoma and Texas are two powerhouse programs that any conference would want. The SEC and B1G would take them both, but it's clear they would not take any little brothers along with them. I think that's OK, though because the groundwork has already been laid. Boren tried to move with OSU in tow to the PAC but got rejected. It's clear neither the SEC nor B1G wants little brothers either, and I can't see any politician in Oklahoma or Texas blocking a move that would benefit their flagship schools.

Adding Oklahoma and Texas would bring the SEC or B1G to 16 and that might be the stopping point for either. I think it's possible that the B1G would also take Kansas, but only if a partner school is available and none of the potential candidates (e.g. Virginia, UNC or in a wild scenario, A&M or Missouri) would seem willing to make the move.

So what happens to the rest of the Big 12 - I think WVU goes to the AAC and the rest work out what ever deal they can get to 'merge' with the Mountain west. That's not a great result for them but that could be their lot in life.
11-14-2017 12:44 AM
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Gamecock Online
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Post: #50
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I don't think anything happens.

The Big 12 should expand, though. Adding UCF/USF and then Cincinnati/ECU would look dumb now but in 10 years no one will ever remember that they used to all be CUSA schools.
11-14-2017 09:32 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #51
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
An out of the box scenario I could envision has the B1G poaching Kansas from the Big XII and Missouri from the SEC. To replace the Tigers, the SEC poaches NC State from the ACC, creating a vacancy they fill by bringing in West Virginia, allowing them to create an ACC division and a Big East division of 7 teams each.

To get back to 10, the Big XII brings in, as football only members, BYU and Boise State, giving them a partial share of their TV money and increasing the per school payout for the remaining 8 schools. They arrange the schedule so each of those 8 schools play one of the mountain schools at home and one away every year.
11-14-2017 09:35 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #52
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-14-2017 09:32 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I don't think anything happens.

The Big 12 should expand, though. Adding UCF/USF and then Cincinnati/ECU would look dumb now but in 10 years no one will ever remember that they used to all be CUSA schools.

Yep... hardly anyone comments TCU or Louisville were in CUSA (FWIW, Cincinnati hasn't been in C-USA since 2004-- they left at the same time as those schools).
11-14-2017 09:39 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I have mixed thoughts about the XII dissolving. I'm now leaning towards no - but it goes back and forth.

1) If you're not a power conference, having more than 12 schools is not really beneficial. If you are a power conference, having less than 12 schools is probably not beneficial. Therefore, 12 schools is likely the right number for a tweener conference (one that is not is not technically a power conference but exceeds the lower tier.)

2) The American and the Mountain West each have 12 schools. Therefore, I can't imagine a scenario where either would want to exceed 12. That leads me to the conclusion the XII will survive in some fashion and we will have a weakened Mountain West to the West and a weakened American to the East with a weakened XII in between them.

3) Who will remain? Where will schools go? Obviously, Texas and Oklahoma are safely power schools. Kansas is likely safe. Then it gets tricky. It depends on how conferences expand. I see it going like this...

Texas A&M really doesn't want Texas but wouldn't mind Oklahoma. The SEC invites Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The SEC gets some firepower in the West allowing for divisional realignment. The B1G would be a good academic fit for Texas but culturally and geographically doesn't make sense. The ACC is likely too much of a stretch for the Longhorns. The PAC needs a better media deal ("Hello, ESPN!"), some firepower to their roster, and central time zone schools with reasonably easy access to recruits so they cater to Texas. The PAC invites Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston. The B1G sees Kansas as part of the club and invites them along with...Missouri. Missouri accepts on condition they receive their equal pay share immediately upon joining. The SEC responds with West Virginia - not a market or academic school like Mizzou but athletically far superior with an SEC mindset. The ACC invites Notre Dame to join full in football but the Irish reject. To keep up with the other power conferences, the ACC invites Cincinnati and Connecticut.

The XII is left with Baylor, Kansas St, and Iowa St. They invite Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple, and SMU as full-members with football. They invite Wichita St (non-fb).

PAC
West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston

SEC
West: Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt
East: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia

B1G
West: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

ACC
Atlantic: Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, Louisville, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Boston College
Coastal: Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Connecticut

XII
West: Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Kansas St, Iowa St, Baylor
East: SMU, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple

INDEPENDENTS
Notre Dame, Army, Navy, Liberty

MWC
West: Hawaii, San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain: Utah St, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, UTEP, Tulsa

CUSA
West: UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Louisiana Tech, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB
East: Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky, Marshall, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

SBC
West: New Mexico St, Texas St, Arkansas St, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, South Alabama
East: Troy, Georgia St, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian St, Massachusetts (fb)

MAC
West: Northern Illinois, Ball St, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo
East: Bowling Green St, Ohio, Miami OH, Akron, Kent St, Buffalo
11-14-2017 10:39 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think everyone agrees if OU and UT stay, the Big 12 will be fine.

So for UT and OU to leave two things have to happen:
1. They want to leave
2. Some one else wants them

It could be argued that 2 is a given. I'm not so sure but I'll leave that alone and look mainly at 1.

There is an advantage to being an alpha dog in a conference. Both would be either geographically peripheral or power peripheral in whatever conference they join. So moving would sacrifice that advantage. The main reasons to leave would be if they are at a financial or competitive disadvantage being in the Big 12. The financial gradient is the most compelling argument, but right now there really isn't one once you factor in their tier 3. That may change over the next decade, but how much is unclear. The competitive argument is less compelling. Conference strength waxes and wanes and there is not really indication the league is at a competitive disadvantage. It is in a rich recruiting area, has kept up well in the facilities race and has competitive coaching salaries.

So it will come down to revenue gradient and whether there is enough of a gradient to make up for the loss of alpha dog status.
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 10:55 AM by Frog in the Kitchen Sink.)
11-14-2017 10:55 AM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
texas is probably content but not OU, so it depends on Ou options and if Texas counters. I would guess OU would take a big 10 invite or Sec/pac 12 invite with OK state. If OU is about to make a move does Texas step in to do something with OU? I would lean towards ou and ok state going to the sec unless Texas puts a package together for a pac 18.
11-14-2017 11:08 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Here's a conservative realignment scenario for 2025ish. The Big 12 doesn't dissolve but does lose its two best assets to the Pac-12/14, leaving it to restock on AAC schools. While stronger by far than the old G5, it's no longer treated as a true power conference. The Pac-14 adopts an ACC-style zipper alignment with one permanent crossover per school. This setup permits all schools to play in NorCal and SoCal each at least once every two years. The AAC suffers heavy losses to the Big 12 and can only staunch the bleeding with inferior C-USA schools.

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Non-FB: Notre Dame

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Pac-14
Frontier: Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, Texas, USC, Utah, Washington State
Pioneer: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oregon, UCLA, Washington

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

American
East: Connecticut, East Carolina, FIU, Memphis, Temple
West: Navy*, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
Non-FB: Wichita State

Big 12
East: Baylor, Central Florida, Cincinnati, South Florida, TCU, West Virginia
West: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

C-USA
East: Charlotte, FAU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt
East: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Troy
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

FBS Ind
Army*, BYU*, Liberty*, Massachusetts*, New Mexico State*, Notre Dame*

* = FB-only
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 11:33 AM by Nerdlinger.)
11-14-2017 11:09 AM
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HHOOTter Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-14-2017 09:32 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I don't think anything happens.

The Big 12 should expand, though. Adding UCF/USF and then Cincinnati/ECU would look dumb now but in 10 years no one will ever remember that they used to all be CUSA schools.

Agree, I think Big 12 will stay put as is.

But.......
The ONLY G5 candidates Big 12 will EVER consider:
Memphis, UCF, & USF
Houston (If Baylor gets Dumped, otherwise, no way)
2nd tier
Cinn, UTSA, UNLV, U Conn, Colo St

Forget BYU & 4 sure, forget has been, Bosie St.
Big 12 won’t mess w/either one.

Could Big 12 have some P5 bargaining chips on the table
during the next TV/Cable negotiations?

Speculating on possible P5 teams
that might, mayB consider moving to Big 12
(Very Doubtful Big 12 could entice any P5 school to move)

) Arizona & Arizona St,--had inquires both sides showed interest & promise
they’ll revisit in 5 years

) Nebraska--Alumni/Fans are restless IF next couple of coaching hires
don’t bring Nebraska to a Top 10 program, they’ll B alot of $$$ folk’s
looking South when the next 2024 contract comes up

) Arkansas-- Very Doubtful, SEC $$$$ very good, program does suffer being in SEC west
But, support, attendance, & $$$$ is up,
Big 12 can help open Texas market to more Top Tier recruits

) Mizzu--Highly unlikely, AD administration a mess, SEC $$$$ is very good
How important is it 4 them to reconnect w/ Kansas? & Texas recruits?

) Colorado--Alumni & Donors likes Pac 12 “fit”
IF Big 12 could offer a much higher $$$$ next time around
Helps w/ lower travel cost, closer rivalries, & Texas recruiting

) Kentucky/ Louisville-Very Doubtful; talk of this event as a possibility
as few years back. I’d think U’d have to have
alot of unrest in conference alignment 4 this 2 even B on the radar
Big 12 would have to have a HUGE $$$$ increase
But basketball rules @ both institutions
& #1 B-ball league for yrs has been the Big 12
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 11:49 AM by HHOOTter.)
11-14-2017 11:49 AM
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MissouriStateBears Online
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Post: #58
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Big 12 won't dissolve. It will eventually become like the MVC or Southern was before but more likely with the western half of the American Conference.
11-14-2017 12:44 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Oklahoma is positioned to reach the CFP for the second time in three years,...this year, with a new coach,...and a #7 ranking (at 10-2) and Sugar Bowl win in between....

How much more money would a conference need to offer the Sooners to break away from rivals, regional scheduling, and a structure that seems built to give the Sooners an advantageous path to the CFP and NY6 bowl game?
11-14-2017 02:14 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-14-2017 02:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  Oklahoma is positioned to reach the CFP for the second time in three years,...this year, with a new coach,...and a #7 ranking (at 10-2) and Sugar Bowl win in between....

How much more money would a conference need to offer the Sooners to break away from rivals, regional scheduling, and a structure that seems built to give the Sooners an advantageous path to the CFP and NY6 bowl game?

Good question. IMO, a lot, and more than anyone is likely to offer.
11-14-2017 02:20 PM
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