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Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 04:34 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

Meh, the schools with real value will get offers from the SEC, B1G and Pac-12. I don't see the ACC inviting any of the Big XII besides WVU, the other schools are just too far away and the big dogs (UT/OU) aren't coming to the ACC.

I do think that there's an outside chance that realignment shakes out in such a way that Texas becomes Notre Dame's doppelganger in the ACC as a football indy with a scheduling arrangement and bowl access rights, if they really insist on retaining the longhorn network and that becomes problematic for other conferences.
11-13-2017 04:51 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 04:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 04:31 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Thats not how it happens. The leftovers sit in a position of strength and will poach whomever they want from the G5 ranks to form a new tweener conference. Just like how UConn, Cincy and USF didn't join CUSA, they invited who they wanted and left behind who they didn't.

Lets say for arguments sake it's Baylor, ISU and KSU left behind. This is what the Big 16 (They own the rights to that name) would look like.

East- UConn, Temple, Navy, ECU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Cincy

West- Baylor, Houston, SMU, Tulsa, Air Force, ISU, KSU, CSU

Ditch Tulsa and give BYU a FB-only invite. If there is another vacancy through promotion, give Boise a FB-only invite too.

Realistically though, they'll probably max out at 12, especially if the new CFP contract pays per conference rather than per school.

In this scenario, Houston and Cincy are picked up by the Pac and ACC, respectively:

East: Memphis, Navy*, UCF, UConn, USF, Temple
West: Baylor, BYU*, CSU, ISU, KSU, SMU

Maybe swap Navy and ISU, since Navy wants to play in Texas more.

BYU isn't joining a non-P conference. If the P conferences are sitting at 16 they probably follow suit.

The ACC isn't taking Cincy if WVU is out there. The ACC is always going to keep a seat open for Notre Dame. As for Houston to the Pac, that depends on who goes to the Pac from the Big XII.
11-13-2017 04:53 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
No power conference is at risk like the Big 12. Contrary to what was stated the ACC is not at risk. Get a map out and take a look at the ACC footprint and compare that to the Big 12. Remember the Big 12 basically begging Notre Dame to hook up with them?

Notre Dame aligning with the ACC should let anyone know the ACC is going to be just fine. The didn't didn't do that out of thin air. Notre Dame sees the ACC as a 50 year spot to park athletics and when the day comes if it ever does, FB as well.

I really believe the BIG 12 is a dying brand, with each passing year we get closer to it's demise. I do not believe a handful of leftovers well somehow raid the MWC and ACC either. Whoever is left even as a small group will not carry any weight or wield any power over either the AAC or the MWC simply because they will have no power or influence.

As far as NCAA credits and such, that will be worked out with whatever new conferences. Split accordingly among whatever new conferences, including Power 5 for those that end up there as well...I think.
11-13-2017 05:08 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
responding to OP:

B12 is worth more than all the G5 conferences combined. Even if it were to lose 5 or 6 members it's rump has more value than the AAC or MWC and could easily rebuild with schools from those conferences and be in stronger position with all the accrued Basketball credits and preferred status on TV packages. So if at least 4 schools remain it wont dissolve - it will instead destabilize the American and maybe the Mountain West (fewer schools would be targeted from them)

The only scenario where it could dissolve is 7 schools line up P5 conferences before 2025, and agree to submit together. First they would suspend Baylor's voting rights, then on 7-2 vote dissolve the B12 so they can take their basketball credits with them. The fun part is figuring out where the 7 go.
11-13-2017 05:17 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 05:08 PM)Bigdog731 Wrote:  No power conference is at risk like the Big 12. Contrary to what was stated the ACC is not at risk. Get a map out and take a look at the ACC footprint and compare that to the Big 12. Remember the Big 12 basically begging Notre Dame to hook up with them?

Notre Dame aligning with the ACC should let anyone know the ACC is going to be just fine. The didn't didn't do that out of thin air. Notre Dame sees the ACC as a 50 year spot to park athletics and when the day comes if it ever does, FB as well.

I really believe the BIG 12 is a dying brand, with each passing year we get closer to it's demise. I do not believe a handful of leftovers well somehow raid the MWC and ACC either. Whoever is left even as a small group will not carry any weight or wield any power over either the AAC or the MWC simply because they will have no power or influence.

As far as NCAA credits and such, that will be worked out with whatever new conferences. Split accordingly among whatever new conferences, including Power 5 for those that end up there as well...I think.

Its only going to “get worked out” if everyone has a P5 landing spot. Otherwise, the left behinds will be looking to get the maximum exit fees and credits possible.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 05:29 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-13-2017 05:27 PM
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think the Pac-12 is the most vulnerable. Their income continues to fall further and further behind the rest of the conferences. The Pac-12 network has been a loser. Their late night kickoffs guarantee smaller TV ratings. I can possible see a Big 12-Pac 12 TV alliance. I do not think Texas or Oklahoma really want to go anywhere.
11-13-2017 05:41 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 02:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Bigdog731 Wrote:  I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out. No way will 2/3/4 or whatever current teams left behind be able to raid the AAC and MWC and keep the BIG 12 alive, just not going to happen. The BIG 12 is a victim of geography or lack thereof in terms of big population states and Texas just isn’t big enough to carry this conference on its back long term when it comes to being part of the power country club. Keep in mind this conference has only two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma…Both are going to want out close to or when the current deal runs out and when that happens the exodus begins. Some will be left behind..who knows? perhaps programs like Baylor , Iowa St, Kansas St and TCU won’t make it. TCU namely because the C stands for Christian (haha) would the PAC12 or Big10 take a TCU? I think not but who knows…the SEC might but that could be a long shot. TCU is just a few years removed from the MWC, remember that. Baylor is toxic and won’t be on anyone’s radar…I suppose Iowa ST and Kansas State could be long shots to make the cut but in my opinion not.

I think what may happen is the AAC just stands pat and waits for the BIG 12 to dissolve and takes maybe two, TCU and Kansas St. The MWC gets Iowa St and Baylor. Who knows? I also think when the AAC does a new deal the terms coincide or be really close to (not more than a year or two longer) when the BIG 12 ultimately dissolves. Not saying some super AAC TEEVEE deal long terms either. I actually think the AAC is well positioned long term because a handful of teams might get screwed big time if the BIG 12 actually does dissolve at some point.

I believed it then and I have seen nothing to change my mind since all this started a few years ago. When the Big 12 lost Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M and Missouri that was more or less the writing on the wall...the replacement of TCU and WVU not now and never will be able to come close to making up for those losses. Loosing Texas A&M and Nebraska was really telling in terms of the beginning of the end of this conference. It just taken longer and made for a much slower death. Heck, if a few tweaks here and there would have happened a few short years ago this conference would already be dead. This conference was literally down to 8 teams before the mad scramble to add TCU/WVU. Just think about that for a second. The BIG 12 gets raided by the PAC12/BIG10/SEC and they have to go the dead conference walking BIG EAST and MWC just to find two replacements.

The Prestige the BIG12 has lost is absolutely real and cannot be overstated. As far as all the Power 5 stuff make no mistake the BIG 12 is at the bottom of the pecking order now and will forever be if they were to hang around, which I don’t think will happen. Is Texas and Oklahoma ok with this for the next 50 years????? I think not and they have lots of options and long term more lucrative ones at that.

I don’t know who or how many get left behind but I don’t think all the current members make the cut. I think it could be as few as 2 or as many as 4.

You know, when the GOR expires, there will still be B12 exit fees---they just wont be as high. There will also be a crap load of left behind NCAA credits. Sure, its not going to be a P5 conference any longer--but with a core of Iowa St, Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St (might find W Virginia is stuck as well). Those 4 or 5 schools are a pretty darn attractive match for the AAC West schools. UConn, Cinci, and UCF would be good adds from AAC East. BYU is still out there and Colorado St, N Mexico, and Boise relatively nearby--plenty of material to build around that remaining Big12 core--and some left behind NCAA/exit fee money to negotiate with.

1) Baylor
2) TCU
3) Kansas St
4) Iowa St
5) W Virginia (maybe gets left if things dont fall right)
5/6) Houston
6/7) SMU
7/8) Memphis
8/9) Cinci
9/10) Navy
10/11) BYU
11/12) Either one or two of UConn, Boise, AF, New Mexico, Colorado St, UCF, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, or Tulane. Plus, there is room for Wichita St as a basketball only to offset the Navy football only membership. If W Virginia is still in the conference the model might go more east coast with the last two picks. If W Virginia is gone, the model likely goes west. The Florida schools are great adds---but they are kinda going to be outliers. You could make it a bit better by adding both.

The point is--there is plenty of material from which to build a very attractive "tweener" conference if the Big12 implodes and some are left behind. I dont think they would have trouble attracting AAC schools (especially AAC west schools).

I think you'd still have to consider it a Power Conference. It won't have the biggest name but that's still a hell of a Conference.

Baylor- Pending what Rhule does can be a top 25 program, they have shown it recently.
Memphis- Has been solid and ranked quite a bit the last few years.
Houston- The right coach and Houston has the resources to compete with literally anyone.
West Virginia- Was the class of the Big East imo. They are a solid top 25-35 program almost always.
SMU- Appears to be headed in the right direction. Whoever they hire after Morris will be key.
Iowa State would compete well if they are able to maintain what they have done this season.
Navy- A very good traditionally 7-9 win team. Generally very tough with that triple option.
BYU- Minus a couple of seasons here and there they are about as solid a program as you'll find. Very comparable to the top of the AAC.
Cincy- With the right guy they were able to win a BSC Conference multiple times and play in some big time bowls.
Kansas State- Another solid 6-9 win program that would excel in this new setup.
TCU- After a couple of years in the Big 12 they started dominating it. Took a season to regroup and are competing again. Definitely a top 20 program right now.
UCF or USF would be great for that conference. Having a solid Florida school will be great for recruiting but any given year either of those programs can compete. UCF was 0-12 2 years ago and ow they are 9-0. They have the ability to bounce back quick and plenty of resources.

I think as far as a playoff was concerned this conference would have to be given a chance if it were moved to 8, they would get an Auto bid.
11-13-2017 06:03 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 03:44 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  It's the ACC that will fall apart before the Big 12. They are a house of cards ESPN created football conference and relatively new money. The Big 12 is top to bottom better than the ACC. The ACC is a historical light heavyweight with 5 Big East schools plus a CUSA school. The penalties that Louisville, Miami and North Carolina have earned haven't even begun to take their toll. When they do, you will see those 3 looking like the SWC schools and Oklahoma of the 90's. The ACC is also tied 100% to ESPN for the next 20 years. I think ESPN will be in trouble over the next few years. The ACC is the endangered species here..that's always been and still is my prediction. We shall see.

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11-13-2017 06:36 PM
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 05:17 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  responding to OP:

B12 is worth more than all the G5 conferences combined. Even if it were to lose 5 or 6 members it's rump has more value than the AAC or MWC and could easily rebuild with schools from those conferences and be in stronger position with all the accrued Basketball credits and preferred status on TV packages. So if at least 4 schools remain it wont dissolve - it will instead destabilize the American and maybe the Mountain West (fewer schools would be targeted from them)

The only scenario where it could dissolve is 7 schools line up P5 conferences before 2025, and agree to submit together. First they would suspend Baylor's voting rights, then on 7-2 vote dissolve the B12 so they can take their basketball credits with them. The fun part is figuring out where the 7 go.

Does suspending voting rights require a smaller supermajority than dissolving the conference? If they're the same, I don't see why an ISU or KSU without a power conference spot lined up would vote to disenfranchise an ally (and thus themselves).
11-13-2017 06:56 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
The most likely scenario is that the second weakest conference (Pac 12) raids the weakest (Big 12). It will be like the whole SWC split all over again.
My guess is that the Texahoma four will go to the new Pac-16. I do not believe that the other power conferences will be in a rush to expand for a lot of reasons so the Kansas/UConn to Big 10 move probably wouldn't happen for a while. Kansas sucking at football is going to catch up to them.

Who would the Big 12 reload with?
Probably UConn, Cincy, Houston, and SMU. I don't see them going to 12 because I believe adding six G5 schools instead of four hurts the diminished brand more. The Big12 would no longer be a power conference but more of a true tweeter conference so BYU will thumb its nose at it.
UCF and USF are directionals so I don't think Kansas (the kingpin of the conference) would be too excited to add them.
11-13-2017 07:20 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 07:20 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The most likely scenario is that the second weakest conference (Pac 12) raids the weakest (Big 12). It will be like the whole SWC split all over again.
My guess is that the Texahoma four will go to the new Pac-16. I do not believe that the other power conferences will be in a rush to expand for a lot of reasons so the Kansas/UConn to Big 10 move probably wouldn't happen for a while. Kansas sucking at football is going to catch up to them.

Who would the Big 12 reload with?
Probably UConn, Cincy, Houston, and SMU. I don't see them going to 12 because I believe adding six G5 schools instead of four hurts the diminished brand more. The Big12 would no longer be a power conference but more of a true tweeter conference so BYU will thumb its nose at it.
UCF and USF are directionals so I don't think Kansas (the kingpin of the conference) would be too excited to add them.

I am one of the few that thinks the Big12 probably is going to survive as is.

If its between staying in the Big12 or going to the Pac12---I think UT stays put. In fact, I think the Big12 has a better than 50-50 chance of remaining whole. Does UT really want to put its athletes at at 2 time zone disadvatage? Does UT really want 9:30 PM starts for football and basketball? Does UT really want to become an afterthought for 2/3 of the population? Oh, and is the only college football team with its own TV network willing to give up the LHN to get those late night starts and distant travel?

Im not seeing it. I can see UT in the Big10---but does UT they want top play in the snow? Do they want to trade Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St for Michigan and Purdue? At least in the Big10, giving up the Longhorn Network is offset by even more revenue. So, I think this is the most likely destination if UT leaves the Big12

I dont think UT would defect to the SEC--but I do think UT fans would like it if they did. UT vs Aggie returns. Those SEC games be very interesting for fans and the climate and travel are both reasonable. But...UT would have to give up the LHN and they wouldnt get any real offset in return as far as revenue goes. The ACC would be ok--less interesting schedule than the SEC---though the travel is further than the SEC (but better than the Pac12). Again, the ACC doesnt offer much of a revenue offset for the loss of the LHN.

So, when you really think about it, the Big12 is a pretty good home for UT. Now if Oklahoma leaves....well, that might change things. But I dont think Oklahoma leaves the Big12 if UT is committed to staying in the Big12.

I guess we will see how it turns out in 7 years or so.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 07:44 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-13-2017 07:39 PM
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 03:44 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  It's the ACC that will fall apart before the Big 12. They are a house of cards ESPN created football conference and relatively new money. The Big 12 is top to bottom better than the ACC. The ACC is a historical light heavyweight with 5 Big East schools plus a CUSA school. The penalties that Louisville, Miami and North Carolina have earned haven't even begun to take their toll. When they do, you will see those 3 looking like the SWC schools and Oklahoma of the 90's. The ACC is also tied 100% to ESPN for the next 20 years. I think ESPN will be in trouble over the next few years. The ACC is the endangered species here..that's always been and still is my prediction. We shall see.

Lots of folks have been predicting the demise of the ACC for years now, ever since Maryland bolted to the BIG. But today the ACC is as stable as its ever been. The revenue sports are better than they have ever been. The league is making more money than it ever has, and according to some comments coming out of the ACC office, revenue is set to skyrocket with the new ACCN. Folks in the ACC office have been very pleased with the media deals for the ACCN, and have learned the do's and the dont's from the SECN.

Folks who continue to predict the demise of the ACC seem to forget that the core ACC schools want to be together (thus why the have not run off to the BIG or SEC), which encourages the newcomers to want to stay together. So, haters keep on hatin, doomsayers keep on doomsaying, while the ACC keeps getting stronger, more stable and richer.
11-13-2017 07:48 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 04:20 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 03:44 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  It's the ACC that will fall apart before the Big 12. They are a house of cards ESPN created football conference and relatively new money. The Big 12 is top to bottom better than the ACC. The ACC is a historical light heavyweight with 5 Big East schools plus a CUSA school. The penalties that Louisville, Miami and North Carolina have earned haven't even begun to take their toll. When they do, you will see those 3 looking like the SWC schools and Oklahoma of the 90's. The ACC is also tied 100% to ESPN for the next 20 years. I think ESPN will be in trouble over the next few years. The ACC is the endangered species here..that's always been and still is my prediction. We shall see.

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11-13-2017 07:58 PM
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

This ^^^^^^ and / or the B-12 also adds 2 more schools when the next TV contract comes around and divides into 2 six school divisions for their Conference championship Game. 05-stirthepot 05-stirthepot 05-stirthepot 05-mafia 07-coffee3 05-nono 03-lmfao
11-13-2017 08:01 PM
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 04:34 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

Meh, the schools with real value will get offers from the SEC, B1G and Pac-12. I don't see the ACC inviting any of the Big XII besides WVU, the other schools are just too far away and the big dogs (UT/OU) aren't coming to the ACC.

TCU actually would be a good fit with the other schools like Miami, BC, Miami, Duke, and Wake. ACC wants into Texas.
11-13-2017 08:02 PM
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 07:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 07:20 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The most likely scenario is that the second weakest conference (Pac 12) raids the weakest (Big 12). It will be like the whole SWC split all over again.
My guess is that the Texahoma four will go to the new Pac-16. I do not believe that the other power conferences will be in a rush to expand for a lot of reasons so the Kansas/UConn to Big 10 move probably wouldn't happen for a while. Kansas sucking at football is going to catch up to them.

Who would the Big 12 reload with?
Probably UConn, Cincy, Houston, and SMU. I don't see them going to 12 because I believe adding six G5 schools instead of four hurts the diminished brand more. The Big12 would no longer be a power conference but more of a true tweeter conference so BYU will thumb its nose at it.
UCF and USF are directionals so I don't think Kansas (the kingpin of the conference) would be too excited to add them.

I am one of the few that thinks the Big12 probably is going to survive as is.

If its between staying in the Big12 or going to the Pac12---I think UT stays put. In fact, I think the Big12 has a better than 50-50 chance of remaining whole. Does UT really want to put its athletes at at 2 time zone disadvatage? Does UT really want 9:30 PM starts for football and basketball? Does UT really want to become an afterthought for 2/3 of the population? Oh, and is the only college football team with its own TV network willing to give up the LHN to get those late night starts and distant travel?

Im not seeing it. I can see UT in the Big10---but does UT they want top play in the snow? Do they want to trade Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St for Michigan and Purdue? At least in the Big10, giving up the Longhorn Network is offset by even more revenue. So, I think this is the most likely destination if UT leaves the Big12

I dont think UT would defect to the SEC--but I do think UT fans would like it if they did. UT vs Aggie returns. Those SEC games be very interesting for fans and the climate and travel are both reasonable. But...UT would have to give up the LHN and they wouldnt get any real offset in return as far as revenue goes. The ACC would be ok--less interesting schedule than the SEC---though the travel is further than the SEC (but better than the Pac12). Again, the ACC doesnt offer much of a revenue offset for the loss of the LHN.

So, when you really think about it, the Big12 is a pretty good home for UT. Now if Oklahoma leaves....well, that might change things. But I dont think Oklahoma leaves the Big12 if UT is committed to staying in the Big12.

I guess we will see how it turns out in 7 years or so.

They wouldn't have 9:30 pm games for football. There would be written agreements stipulating Texas games not starting later than say 8. I believe the conference will dissolve because OK holds the chips. They want to leave. That leverage will be used to coerce Texas who doesn't want to be in an even weaker Big 12.

And I doubt SMU would be invited now that I think about it (TCU). So I could see Air Force joining UConn, Cincy, and Houston.
11-13-2017 08:13 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 08:02 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 04:34 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

Meh, the schools with real value will get offers from the SEC, B1G and Pac-12. I don't see the ACC inviting any of the Big XII besides WVU, the other schools are just too far away and the big dogs (UT/OU) aren't coming to the ACC.

TCU actually would be a good fit with the other schools like Miami, BC, Miami, Duke, and Wake. ACC wants into Texas.

I don't think they want an island in Texas and needs to keep one spot open for Notre Dame. Also I think TCU will get a better offer (SEC).
11-13-2017 08:33 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
The Big 12 will lose at least 2 schools at the end of the GOR and one will be Oklahoma.

I don't think enough schools will leave to fully dissolve the league and the left behind members will rebuild the league into a tweener league with AAC, MWC, and maybe BYU.

As I think about it, I think Texas might be inclined to keep a post-Oklahoma Big 12 alive as they would enjoy even greater control of league affairs than they do now.

The Pac 16 plan only works for Texas if they get to bring 3 friends with them. Oklahoma doesn't want to be a part of that plan because the Big Ten and SEC offer them better options. The Big Ten is not a great cultural fit for Texas and while the SEC would be a decent fit I just don't see the egos working out.
11-13-2017 09:01 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Only if A&M allows it, SEC is notorious for not allowing schools to add competitor from another state. Also, it is no more of an island than BC or Miami. Swofford dream has been Notre Dame and Texas. Notre Dame will get first offer, the question does ND demand Navy, if not TCU would be a good option. Actually, I love to see TX and ND to the ACC. Ok and Ok St to the SEC. Have Texas play OU/OSU/A&M once every three years as the last game of the year as part of the other SEC/ACC rival games.
11-13-2017 09:11 PM
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Wolfman Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
If 3 or 4 teams leave, the B12 brand and remaining teams are strong enough to pull the top teams from the AAC and MWC. That B12 is strong enough to remain in the CFP AND keep their P5, 2-vote status.

If it goes much deeper than that, the remaining teams will look east because of the favorable time zone.
11-13-2017 09:31 PM
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