RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I have mixed thoughts about the XII dissolving. I'm now leaning towards no - but it goes back and forth.
1) If you're not a power conference, having more than 12 schools is not really beneficial. If you are a power conference, having less than 12 schools is probably not beneficial. Therefore, 12 schools is likely the right number for a tweener conference (one that is not is not technically a power conference but exceeds the lower tier.)
2) The American and the Mountain West each have 12 schools. Therefore, I can't imagine a scenario where either would want to exceed 12. That leads me to the conclusion the XII will survive in some fashion and we will have a weakened Mountain West to the West and a weakened American to the East with a weakened XII in between them.
3) Who will remain? Where will schools go? Obviously, Texas and Oklahoma are safely power schools. Kansas is likely safe. Then it gets tricky. It depends on how conferences expand. I see it going like this...
Texas A&M really doesn't want Texas but wouldn't mind Oklahoma. The SEC invites Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The SEC gets some firepower in the West allowing for divisional realignment. The B1G would be a good academic fit for Texas but culturally and geographically doesn't make sense. The ACC is likely too much of a stretch for the Longhorns. The PAC needs a better media deal ("Hello, ESPN!"), some firepower to their roster, and central time zone schools with reasonably easy access to recruits so they cater to Texas. The PAC invites Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston. The B1G sees Kansas as part of the club and invites them along with...Missouri. Missouri accepts on condition they receive their equal pay share immediately upon joining. The SEC responds with West Virginia - not a market or academic school like Mizzou but athletically far superior with an SEC mindset. The ACC invites Notre Dame to join full in football but the Irish reject. To keep up with the other power conferences, the ACC invites Cincinnati and Connecticut.
The XII is left with Baylor, Kansas St, and Iowa St. They invite Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple, and SMU as full-members with football. They invite Wichita St (non-fb).
PAC
West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston
SEC
West: Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt
East: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia
B1G
West: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers
ACC
Atlantic: Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, Louisville, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Boston College
Coastal: Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Connecticut
XII
West: Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Kansas St, Iowa St, Baylor
East: SMU, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple
INDEPENDENTS
Notre Dame, Army, Navy, Liberty
MWC
West: Hawaii, San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain: Utah St, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, UTEP, Tulsa
CUSA
West: UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Louisiana Tech, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB
East: Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky, Marshall, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International
SBC
West: New Mexico St, Texas St, Arkansas St, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, South Alabama
East: Troy, Georgia St, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian St, Massachusetts (fb)
MAC
West: Northern Illinois, Ball St, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo
East: Bowling Green St, Ohio, Miami OH, Akron, Kent St, Buffalo
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