(11-14-2017 10:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: I have mixed thoughts about the XII dissolving. I'm now leaning towards no - but it goes back and forth.
1) If you're not a power conference, having more than 12 schools is not really beneficial. If you are a power conference, having less than 12 schools is probably not beneficial. Therefore, 12 schools is likely the right number for a tweener conference (one that is not is not technically a power conference but exceeds the lower tier.)
2) The American and the Mountain West each have 12 schools. Therefore, I can't imagine a scenario where either would want to exceed 12. That leads me to the conclusion the XII will survive in some fashion and we will have a weakened Mountain West to the West and a weakened American to the East with a weakened XII in between them.
3) Who will remain? Where will schools go? Obviously, Texas and Oklahoma are safely power schools. Kansas is likely safe. Then it gets tricky. It depends on how conferences expand. I see it going like this...
Texas A&M really doesn't want Texas but wouldn't mind Oklahoma. The SEC invites Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The SEC gets some firepower in the West allowing for divisional realignment. The B1G would be a good academic fit for Texas but culturally and geographically doesn't make sense. The ACC is likely too much of a stretch for the Longhorns. The PAC needs a better media deal ("Hello, ESPN!"), some firepower to their roster, and central time zone schools with reasonably easy access to recruits so they cater to Texas. The PAC invites Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston. The B1G sees Kansas as part of the club and invites them along with...Missouri. Missouri accepts on condition they receive their equal pay share immediately upon joining. The SEC responds with West Virginia - not a market or academic school like Mizzou but athletically far superior with an SEC mindset. The ACC invites Notre Dame to join full in football but the Irish reject. To keep up with the other power conferences, the ACC invites Cincinnati and Connecticut.
The XII is left with Baylor, Kansas St, and Iowa St. They invite Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple, and SMU as full-members with football. They invite Wichita St (non-fb).
I like this scenario a lot, although I have a few quibbles:
Missouri will not likely be in a position to dictate terms to the Big Ten. They'd be lucky to even be invited.
If ND doesn't join the ACC in full, there's no way they'd fill up the 16th spot with UConn or Cincy.
I suspect that if the rebuilding Big 12 is going east with schools like UCF and USF, they won't be looking for mountain schools as full members. Rather, they might invite BYU and Boise for football only. The travel for non-FB sports is already pretty bad for the AAC, and they're "only" spread across half the country. And it's questionable as to whether BYU would even accept either a full or football-only invite, given that in this scenario, the Big 12 is no longer a power conference.
It's actually in the best interest of the Big 12 to finish off the American here. Otherwise, the American survives to compete for CFP money. If any American schools are left behind, they will rebuild as the Big East did before them. They'll restock from C-USA/MAC/SBC, which in turn will pick on each other and draw from the FCS. So the Big 12 adds the remaining full members of the American plus non-FB Wichita State, while Navy goes independent again.
Also, now that 12 schools isn't a requirement for divisions or a CCG, the Sun Belt has much less incentive to invite such far-off schools as UMass or NMSU.
ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest (+ Cincinnati)
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech (+ Notre Dame)
Non-FB: Notre Dame (if not full member)
Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pac-16
East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah
West: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC
Eastern: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia
Western: Arkansas, Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big 12
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple (+ Cincinnati)
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa (+ Navy*)
Non-FB: Wichita State
C-USA, MAC, MWC, and SBC remain as is.
* = FB-only