(05-16-2017 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote: oh I looked-
2014 wasn't posted....
Ohio St/Michigan only got 8.23M viewers.....
CCG got only 6.13M viewers.....
2013-
Ohio St/Michigan 9.50M viewers.
CCG got 13.90M viewers.
so 4 year averages....
Ohio St/Michigan 11.35M viewers
CCG 9.76M viewers
I crunched some of the numbers.
The 4-year floor for the B1G CCG is 6.13M viewers (2014). The ceiling is 13.9M (2013) and the average is 9.7M viewers (9.81M and 9.18M in the other 2 years).
The 4-year floor for OSU-Michigan is 8M; the ceiling is 16M+. Average is 11.3M (9.5M and 10.8M in the other 2 years).
Although the 2015 OSU-MSU game (11.05M) beat both and the 2016 Wisconsin game (8.96M) was close, such matchups have also posted lower 5-6M viewership and there is no other matchup that has consistently performed against these top two games. That's the issue. *EDIT - ESPN will not necessarily be able to forecast which game might compete with OSU-Michigan. Although Oklahoma-Ohio St. is likely to be their best shot. But, then FOX might be in line to grab the OSU-MSU game or some other matchup that performs better than anything ESPN could hope for.
So, the CCG and the OSU-Michigan game is clearly the best of the B1G inventory and that goes to FOX.
Also, when you compare the OSU-Michigan game to the next best B1G game during the final week of the regular season, the viewership is more than double. While, during the middle of the season, there generally is not such variation. For instance, the top Week 9 game might grab 5.2M viewers, but the next best game gets 4.1M. There are, however, some weeks where the top game is significantly better than the next game - like 5-6M viewers compared to 1-2M viewers or fewer.
The 4-year floor for OSU-MSU is 5.8M viewers (2016); ceiling is 11.05M (2015). Average is 7.9M.
The 4-year floor for the #1 B1G OOC game is 6.4M(Cal v. Northwestern); ceiling is 8.65 (Notre Dame v. Michigan). Average is 7.69M (also including LSU-Wisconsin and Oregon-MSU). The next best B1G OOC game is in the 4-5M range and there usually 2 or 3 other B1G OOC games each year in the 3-4M range.
No other annual B1G matchup comes close to OSU-MSU, let alone OSU-Michigan or the CCG. The next best is OSU-PSU, with a 4-year floor of 4.06M and ceiling of 6.47M. Average is 5.2M. Michigan-MSU comes in at 5.2M average, with a 4-year ceiling of 7.39M and floor of 4.6M.
Nebraska-Iowa, PSU-Michigan, and PSU-MSU come in the 4M to 4.5M average, with about a 6M ceiling and 3.5M floor.
Wisconsin-Iowa and Wisconsin-Nebraska are a step below that. Michigan and Ohio St. have posted stellar 5-7M viewership against Indiana and Rutgers at times, but there is no year-to-year consistency.
There is generally at least one B1G EAST v. B1G WEST game that performs well, with a 4-year floor on the top game of 4.7M ('15 Minnesota-OSU) and ceiling of 8.964 ('16 Wisconsin-OSU). Last year saw 3 EAST v. WEST games over 6M viewers, but 2015 and 2014 saw only two such games over 5M viewers combined and none over 6M.
[We already knew this, but this analysis clearly shows that OSU brings TREMENDOUS value to the B1G contract.]