(05-15-2017 10:28 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  So ESPN gets
2nd pick of Big 10 games (fox)
2nd pick of Big 12 games (fox)
2nd pick of PAC 12 games (fox)
2nd pick of the SEC (CBS)
But espn gets 100% of the ACC games until 2035, is a big deal when espn is dropping subscribers like flies.

No no no. ESPN splits the P12 and B12 tier 1 rights evenly with Fox. Fox gets the B1G CCG, but Fox and ESPN alternate picking the top game each week, with Fox getting the first choice of which week they want to pick first. Basically Fox paid $50 million more than ESPN for the equivalent of two games.

If Fox can offer serious money then it's good for everyone to have another entity besides ESPN to seriously bid on their contract. I know the SEC is looking forward to having CBS, ESPN and Fox all bidding for our contract in a few more years

The SEC will be interesting in a few years. The package really isn't that large- what is it maybe 15 games along with the CCG? The ESPN/Big Ten pieces are 25 games each. Now the difference is the SEC package is a true tier 1 for the regular season games.

(05-17-2017 08:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If Fox can offer serious money then it's good for everyone to have another entity besides ESPN to seriously bid on their contract. I know the SEC is looking forward to having CBS, ESPN and Fox all bidding for our contract in a few more years

A few more years? But doesn't the SEC contract with espn go until 2034?

CBS part of the deal ends after the 2023-24 season.

(05-17-2017 07:54 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Fox gets the B1G CCG, but Fox and ESPN alternate picking the top game each week, with Fox getting the first choice of which week they want to pick first. Basically Fox paid $50 million more than ESPN for the equivalent of two games.

True, but keep in mind I think Fox was already paying $35M/year for the B1G CG (IIRC. Maybe I'm thinking of another conference?). So that means the Ohio State/Michigan game is essentially valued at $15M/year... not far off what some of these "made for TV" neutral site games go for, I think.

(05-17-2017 11:40 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  doesn't the SEC contract with espn go until 2034?

Yes, but the CBS contract (15 games/year, all tier #1, plus SEC CG) comes up soon.

(05-17-2017 11:45 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 07:54 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Fox gets the B1G CCG, but Fox and ESPN alternate picking the top game each week, with Fox getting the first choice of which week they want to pick first. Basically Fox paid $50 million more than ESPN for the equivalent of two games.

True, but keep in mind I think Fox was already paying $35M/year for the B1G CG (IIRC. Maybe I'm thinking of another conference?). So that means the Ohio State/Michigan game is essentially valued at $15M/year... not far off what some of these "made for TV" neutral site games go for, I think.

(05-17-2017 11:40 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  doesn't the SEC contract with espn go until 2034?

Yes, but the CBS contract (15 games/year, all tier #1, plus SEC CG) comes up soon.

No, the number was closer to 24 million for the Big Ten CCG(145 million for 6 years)

(05-17-2017 11:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 11:45 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 07:54 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Fox gets the B1G CCG, but Fox and ESPN alternate picking the top game each week, with Fox getting the first choice of which week they want to pick first. Basically Fox paid $50 million more than ESPN for the equivalent of two games.

True, but keep in mind I think Fox was already paying $35M/year for the B1G CG (IIRC. Maybe I'm thinking of another conference?). So that means the Ohio State/Michigan game is essentially valued at $15M/year... not far off what some of these "made for TV" neutral site games go for, I think.

(05-17-2017 11:40 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  doesn't the SEC contract with espn go until 2034?

Yes, but the CBS contract (15 games/year, all tier #1, plus SEC CG) comes up soon.

No, the number was closer to 24 million for the Big Ten CCG(145 million for 6 years)

FOX and FS1 need good CFB content much more than ESPN, especially in the Eastern timezone. By paying for the B1G CCG and OSU-Michigan game they are guaranteed two of the biggest college football games in existence, that are both played annually in the Eastern time zone.

If FOX gets the top 2 games that are allegedly-valued at close to $35-40M, FOX overpaid by perhaps $10-15M (25-40%) for those 2 games.

Or, it could be viewed that FOX overpaid $10-15M (5-7% compared to ESPN's $190M) for the "other half" of the B1G tier 1 inventory.

And, you can't overlook the fact that FOX owns 51% of the B1G Network. B1G games on FOX and FS1 channels help the B1G network and vice-versa.

Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

Referring to the top-2 B1G games and 2 of the biggest CFB games...FOX has guaranteed itself the top 2 B1G games - the topic discussed in this thread.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

The casual fan might not care, but FOX absolutely does. There will be extensive cross-promotion and FOX will exploit this to the fullest. A Penn St. fan who watches Rutgers-PSU on B1GN will see the promotion of USC-Stanford or Ohio st.-Michigan St. or Texas-WVU for later broadcast on FOX or FS1. The cross-promotion will make a difference for FOX/FS1 grabbing casuals fans.

(05-17-2017 11:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS part of the deal ends after the 2023-24 season.

I bet CBS extends that to 2034 (with a nice pay raise for the SEC) CBS can't afford to lose the SEC game of the week. It's great for them, and it's great for fans because it's on free tv!

(05-17-2017 01:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

Referring to the top-2 B1G games and 2 of the biggest CFB games...FOX has guaranteed itself the top 2 B1G games - the topic discussed in this thread.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

The casual fan might not care, but FOX absolutely does. There will be extensive cross-promotion and FOX will exploit this to the fullest. A Penn St. fan who watches Rutgers-PSU on B1GN will see the promotion of USC-Stanford or Ohio st.-Michigan St. or Texas-WVU for later broadcast on FOX or FS1. The cross-promotion will make a difference for FOX/FS1 grabbing casuals fans.

Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

(05-17-2017 01:53 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 11:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  CBS part of the deal ends after the 2023-24 season.

I bet CBS extends that to 2034 (with a nice pay raise for the SEC) CBS can't afford to lose the SEC game of the week. It's great for them, and it's great for fans because it's on free tv!

CBS will have to go all Jerry Maguire and show them the Money!!!!

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

Referring to the top-2 B1G games and 2 of the biggest CFB games...FOX has guaranteed itself the top 2 B1G games - the topic discussed in this thread.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

The casual fan might not care, but FOX absolutely does. There will be extensive cross-promotion and FOX will exploit this to the fullest. A Penn St. fan who watches Rutgers-PSU on B1GN will see the promotion of USC-Stanford or Ohio st.-Michigan St. or Texas-WVU for later broadcast on FOX or FS1. The cross-promotion will make a difference for FOX/FS1 grabbing casuals fans.

Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

stever20 - I think you're conflating what might be the most valuable game at an exact point in time when the game is actually played (which is variable and is inherently unpredictable) versus what someone can reasonably project to be the most valuable game 6 months before it's even played. It's understood that a game like PSU/Michigan or some other game that we're not even thinking of could end up being the biggest Big Ten game of the year when all is said and done.

HOWEVER, when looking at the schedule 6 months from now and you were actually running the network that was spending an extra $50 million for the right to have the #1 game pick overall, there's no question that you would pick Ohio State-Michigan. Even if both teams aren't playing well, that game will STILL provide a good rating. That's all people are saying here. You have to put yourself in the shoes of the Fox executive that has to pick a game TODAY (6 months ahead of time). OSU-Michigan carries both the least amount of risk (it's always getting a good audience regardless of the teams' standing) and arguably the largest amount of upside (e.g. when a season occurs like last year). Whether you want to believe it or not, the ability to make that pick 6 months ahead of time is worth real money in a TV contract.

Let's put it this way: NO ONE at Fox gets fired for picking OSU-Michigan as your #1 TV pick even if ESPN ends up getting a different higher rated Big Ten game when the broadcast actually occurs (just as no one at Fox gets fired for picking, say, Notre Dame-USC over a different Pac-12 game or OU-Texas over a different Big 12 game even if other games end up getting better ratings). Every TV executive on Earth would understand that pick and would just blame it on the inherently unpredictable nature of sports. In contrast, if you're the Fox executive that passes on OSU-Michigan to take a chance on PSU-Michigan and then OSU-Michigan gets a rating like it did last year, then you're getting fired for being an idiot that missed the obvious and tried to be too smart for his/her own good. This is a classic CYA choice. We have the luxury of being the peanut gallery that doesn't have a job on the line in trying to pick what will be the best game 6 months in advance. If it were me making the choice 6 months ahead of time with my own job on the line, I would definitely pick OSU-Michigan every time without question.

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

May be - but recent history doesn't support this assertion. PSU-Michigan has topped out at 6.1M viewers, with an average of 4M - w/ 2 on ABC and 1 on ESPN. Each of the last 4 years has seen at least 4 matchups that perform better - and most years there were 8-9 matchups better. OSU-Michigan, on the other hand, has a floor of 8M (2M more than PSU-Michigan's best) and an "average" somewhere between 9-11M.

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

Hard core B1G football fans might easily fall within the definition of a casual football fan for non-B1G college football...and some might actually tune in to USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU, especially if there isn't a decent B1G game on at the same time.

I've watched dog games on SEC and PAC networks precisely because of cross-promotion. If it's halftime or a blowout in another game I might be watching, Kentucky-South Carolina or Oregon St.-Arizona is better than Progressive commercials or watching a team run out the clock.

(05-17-2017 02:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

Referring to the top-2 B1G games and 2 of the biggest CFB games...FOX has guaranteed itself the top 2 B1G games - the topic discussed in this thread.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

The casual fan might not care, but FOX absolutely does. There will be extensive cross-promotion and FOX will exploit this to the fullest. A Penn St. fan who watches Rutgers-PSU on B1GN will see the promotion of USC-Stanford or Ohio st.-Michigan St. or Texas-WVU for later broadcast on FOX or FS1. The cross-promotion will make a difference for FOX/FS1 grabbing casuals fans.

Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

stever20 - I think you're conflating what might be the most valuable game at an exact point in time when the game is actually played (which is variable and is inherently unpredictable) versus what someone can reasonably project to be the most valuable game 6 months before it's even played. It's understood that a game like PSU/Michigan or some other game that we're not even thinking of could end up being the biggest Big Ten game of the year when all is said and done.

HOWEVER, when looking at the schedule 6 months from now and you were actually running the network that was spending an extra $50 million for the right to have the #1 game pick overall, there's no question that you would pick Ohio State-Michigan. Even if both teams aren't playing well, that game will STILL provide a good rating. That's all people are saying here. You have to put yourself in the shoes of the Fox executive that has to pick a game TODAY (6 months ahead of time). OSU-Michigan carries both the least amount of risk (it's always getting a good audience regardless of the teams' standing) and arguably the largest amount of upside (e.g. when a season occurs like last year). Whether you want to believe it or not, the ability to make that pick 6 months ahead of time is worth real money in a TV contract.

Let's put it this way: NO ONE at Fox gets fired for picking OSU-Michigan as your #1 TV pick even if ESPN ends up getting a different higher rated Big Ten game when the broadcast actually occurs (just as no one at Fox gets fired for picking, say, Notre Dame-USC over a different Pac-12 game or OU-Texas over a different Big 12 game even if other games end up getting better ratings). Every TV executive on Earth would understand that pick and would just blame it on the inherently unpredictable nature of sports. In contrast, if you're the Fox executive that passes on OSU-Michigan to take a chance on PSU-Michigan and then OSU-Michigan gets a rating like it did last year, then you're getting fired for being an idiot that missed the obvious and tried to be too smart for his/her own good. This is a classic CYA choice. We have the luxury of being the peanut gallery that doesn't have a job on the line in trying to pick what will be the best game 6 months in advance. If it were me making the choice 6 months ahead of time with my own job on the line, I would definitely pick OSU-Michigan every time without question.

I have no problem with that. But my point is, when both packages are known at the end of the season, and the ratings are in, the ratings for both packages are going to be remarkably similar. Sure Fox will get Michigan/Ohio St. They have to select that for the reasons why you said. Even with YNot's projections, he had it within 5 million for the entire season. Not even 500k per game. It is VERY possible that end of the season, ESPN will have the higher rated package.

I just would have thought for 50 million more, Fox would have gotten more breaks than what they got. The extra week they get to pick 1st is a God Awful week- with no good games at all. ESPN is guaranteed to have 1st chance at any Big Ten controlled OOC game(which sometimes can be a HUGE difference between top and 2nd best game for that particular week.

(05-17-2017 02:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

May be - but recent history doesn't support this assertion. PSU-Michigan has topped out at 6.1M viewers, with an average of 4M - w/ 2 on ABC and 1 on ESPN. Each of the last 4 years has seen at least 4 matchups that perform better - and most years there were 8-9 matchups better. OSU-Michigan, on the other hand, has a floor of 8M (2M more than PSU-Michigan's best) and an "average" somewhere between 9-11M.

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

Hard core B1G football fans might easily fall within the definition of a casual football fan for non-B1G college football...and some might actually tune in to USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU, especially if there isn't a decent B1G game on at the same time.

I've watched dog games on SEC and PAC networks precisely because of cross-promotion. If it's halftime or a blowout in another game I might be watching, Kentucky-South Carolina or Oregon St.-Arizona is better than Progressive commercials or watching a team run out the clock.

The problem here with using averages from past few years was Penn St really all 4 years(even last year at the time of the game) and Michigan for first few years- wasn't that good. Looking at it this year- Michigan if they beat Florida should be 6-0 entering the game and Penn St if they beat Pittsburgh should be 6-0 as well entering the game. That's a recipe for a really good rating- 2 top 5 teams playing each other.

(05-17-2017 02:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 02:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

Referring to the top-2 B1G games and 2 of the biggest CFB games...FOX has guaranteed itself the top 2 B1G games - the topic discussed in this thread.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

The casual fan might not care, but FOX absolutely does. There will be extensive cross-promotion and FOX will exploit this to the fullest. A Penn St. fan who watches Rutgers-PSU on B1GN will see the promotion of USC-Stanford or Ohio st.-Michigan St. or Texas-WVU for later broadcast on FOX or FS1. The cross-promotion will make a difference for FOX/FS1 grabbing casuals fans.

Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

stever20 - I think you're conflating what might be the most valuable game at an exact point in time when the game is actually played (which is variable and is inherently unpredictable) versus what someone can reasonably project to be the most valuable game 6 months before it's even played. It's understood that a game like PSU/Michigan or some other game that we're not even thinking of could end up being the biggest Big Ten game of the year when all is said and done.

HOWEVER, when looking at the schedule 6 months from now and you were actually running the network that was spending an extra $50 million for the right to have the #1 game pick overall, there's no question that you would pick Ohio State-Michigan. Even if both teams aren't playing well, that game will STILL provide a good rating. That's all people are saying here. You have to put yourself in the shoes of the Fox executive that has to pick a game TODAY (6 months ahead of time). OSU-Michigan carries both the least amount of risk (it's always getting a good audience regardless of the teams' standing) and arguably the largest amount of upside (e.g. when a season occurs like last year). Whether you want to believe it or not, the ability to make that pick 6 months ahead of time is worth real money in a TV contract.

Let's put it this way: NO ONE at Fox gets fired for picking OSU-Michigan as your #1 TV pick even if ESPN ends up getting a different higher rated Big Ten game when the broadcast actually occurs (just as no one at Fox gets fired for picking, say, Notre Dame-USC over a different Pac-12 game or OU-Texas over a different Big 12 game even if other games end up getting better ratings). Every TV executive on Earth would understand that pick and would just blame it on the inherently unpredictable nature of sports. In contrast, if you're the Fox executive that passes on OSU-Michigan to take a chance on PSU-Michigan and then OSU-Michigan gets a rating like it did last year, then you're getting fired for being an idiot that missed the obvious and tried to be too smart for his/her own good. This is a classic CYA choice. We have the luxury of being the peanut gallery that doesn't have a job on the line in trying to pick what will be the best game 6 months in advance. If it were me making the choice 6 months ahead of time with my own job on the line, I would definitely pick OSU-Michigan every time without question.

I have no problem with that. But my point is, when both packages are known at the end of the season, and the ratings are in, the ratings for both packages are going to be remarkably similar. Sure Fox will get Michigan/Ohio St. They have to select that for the reasons why you said. Even with YNot's projections, he had it within 5 million for the entire season. Not even 500k per game. It is VERY possible that end of the season, ESPN will have the higher rated package.

I just would have thought for 50 million more, Fox would have gotten more breaks than what they got. The extra week they get to pick 1st is a God Awful week- with no good games at all. ESPN is guaranteed to have 1st chance at any Big Ten controlled OOC game(which sometimes can be a HUGE difference between top and 2nd best game for that particular week.

Don't forget that the $50 million difference includes the Big Ten Championship Game, though. That game in and of itself is likely the bulk of the value of the difference much more than getting the #1 regular season game pick. As I noted previously, the B1G CCG was already getting over $23 million per year in the just-expired Fox contract. That value has increased pretty substantially since the original contract was signed due to the CFP raising the value of all P5 CCGs significantly (as chances are high that at least one participant is a CFP contender every year and that has made higher ratings more consistent), the overall competitive bidding situation between Fox and ESPN, and simple inflation. If you told me that the Big Ten Championship Game alone was being valued at over $40 million (meaning the vast majority of the difference between the ESPN and Fox TV packages), I'd certainly believe that number based on how it was previously valued in the BCS era.

saw story the Big 12 adding CCG will be adding about 27-28 million to their deal....
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college...08612.html

So having Big Ten as worth an extra 4-5 million dollars would make it around 31-32 million.

But even if it was 40 million, is having the guarantee of Ohio St/Michigan(at the expense of 1st choice of any home OOC game)- worth 10 million? With how they set it up, the packages are going to be VERY similar end of the day.

(05-17-2017 02:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  saw story the Big 12 adding CCG will be adding about 27-28 million to their deal....
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college...08612.html

So having Big Ten as worth an extra 4-5 million dollars would make it around 31-32 million.

But even if it was 40 million, is having the guarantee of Ohio St/Michigan(at the expense of 1st choice of any home OOC game)- worth 10 million? With how they set it up, the packages are going to be VERY similar end of the day.

Yes, a guarantee of Ohio State - Michigan is absolutely worth $10 million at a minimum. CBS pays several million dollars per year just for the Army - Navy Game and OSU - Michigan virtually always gets substantially higher ratings by comparison. This is the biggest rivalry game in the most expensive TV rights deal in all of college sports - I think $10 million is a relative bargain if that's the number.

Once again, don't get hung up that some random Big Ten game on ESPN like PSU-Michigan or Michigan State-Ohio State might get a higher rating in a given season. The extra money being paid for OSU-Michigan (or at least the #1 pick) is about PREDICTABILITY AND SAFETY. TV networks pay more for what they perceive to be guarantees (just as movie studios pay more for franchises that carry less risk or bigger name stars that can drive a project).

Did ESPN suddenly pay more for AAC games since many Houston games got high ratings last season? Of course not! Very few people in the TV industry believe that it's repeatable or predictable that the same would occur again year-to-year. TV networks obviously want high ratings, but they're also paying for *consistency* above all else. There aren't many sports rivalries in any sport (college or pro) that's more *consistent* year-to-year as being relevant than Ohio State-Michigan.

EDIT: Another great example is Fox's own NFL package compared to CBS. Fox pays more for the NFC package compared to the CBS AFC package. There have actually been many different years where CBS actually got higher overall ratings with its AFC package with the success of teams like the Patriots. However, Fox is paying extra for the certainty year-to-year that comes with the stronger brand names in the NFC like the Cowboys, Packers, Giants, Eagles, Bears, etc. When a very high profile NFC team like the Cowboys is playing well (like last year), then it removes all doubt as to why Fox pays that extra premium even when there are years when CBS beats them in the ratings.