(05-16-2017 10:52 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 10:42 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 10:38 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 10:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 10:24 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  They are relatively close---except FOX paid 100 million more for thier package than ESPN did. I do think the FOX package includes the CCG, which would explain some of the price difference.

it's only 50 million difference per year(240 vs 190). The CCG is a difference- but I'm not sure it and the Michigan/Ohio St game will wind up being worth 50 million dollars each year.

Stever, always towing the ESPN company line. Yes, they do get 2nd pick every year from those conferences.

No they don't.
Big 12- they get 1st choice in odd years(like this year)
Pac 12- it's 50/50(see Wedge's post)
Big 10- they get 1st choice in half the weeks. They will get the best OOC game of the year in Oklahoma/Ohio St.

Nice try though.

Do they ever get first pick of B1G game in any season? They always pick AFTER Fox. Hence they get the second pick. Stop spinning this Stever Spicer.

I think it's possible we agree on something and I loved the Sean Spicer line! Haha

it's a shame we have such folks on here who want to act like ESPN's package is totally behind Fox's. It's not by any stretch of the imagination.

And think about this.... if Fox's top games this year are.....
Ohio St/Michigan
Penn St/Ohio St
Notre Dame/Michigan St
Texas/USC

that leaves a ton for ESPN.
Clemson/Florida St of course
Alabama/Florida St
Texas/Oklahoma
Ohio St/Oklahoma
Penn St/Michigan

And a lot more meat on the ESPN bone than the Fox bone.

just using Sporting News ratings....
1 Alabama vs 4 Florida St-ESPN
21 Texas @ 2 USC- Fox
7 Oklahoma @ 3 Ohio St- ESPN
3 Ohio St @ 9 Michigan- Fox
6 Penn St @ 3 Ohio St- Fox
4 Florida St @ 5 Clemson-ESPN
11 Auburn @ 5 Clemson- ESPN
9 Michigan @ 6 Penn St- ESPN
9 Michigan vs 15 Florida- ESPN
21 Texas vs 7 Oklahoma- ESPN

(05-16-2017 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  oh I looked-
2014 wasn't posted....
Ohio St/Michigan only got 8.23M viewers.....
CCG got only 6.13M viewers.....

2013-
Ohio St/Michigan 9.50M viewers.
CCG got 13.90M viewers.

so 4 year averages....
Ohio St/Michigan 11.35M viewers
CCG 9.76M viewers

I crunched some of the numbers.

The 4-year floor for the B1G CCG is 6.13M viewers (2014). The ceiling is 13.9M (2013) and the average is 9.7M viewers (9.81M and 9.18M in the other 2 years).

The 4-year floor for OSU-Michigan is 8M; the ceiling is 16M+. Average is 11.3M (9.5M and 10.8M in the other 2 years).

Although the 2015 OSU-MSU game (11.05M) beat both and the 2016 Wisconsin game (8.96M) was close, such matchups have also posted lower 5-6M viewership and there is no other matchup that has consistently performed against these top two games. That's the issue. *EDIT - ESPN will not necessarily be able to forecast which game might compete with OSU-Michigan. Although Oklahoma-Ohio St. is likely to be their best shot. But, then FOX might be in line to grab the OSU-MSU game or some other matchup that performs better than anything ESPN could hope for.

So, the CCG and the OSU-Michigan game is clearly the best of the B1G inventory and that goes to FOX.

Also, when you compare the OSU-Michigan game to the next best B1G game during the final week of the regular season, the viewership is more than double. While, during the middle of the season, there generally is not such variation. For instance, the top Week 9 game might grab 5.2M viewers, but the next best game gets 4.1M. There are, however, some weeks where the top game is significantly better than the next game - like 5-6M viewers compared to 1-2M viewers or fewer.

The 4-year floor for OSU-MSU is 5.8M viewers (2016); ceiling is 11.05M (2015). Average is 7.9M.

The 4-year floor for the #1 B1G OOC game is 6.4M(Cal v. Northwestern); ceiling is 8.65 (Notre Dame v. Michigan). Average is 7.69M (also including LSU-Wisconsin and Oregon-MSU). The next best B1G OOC game is in the 4-5M range and there usually 2 or 3 other B1G OOC games each year in the 3-4M range.

No other annual B1G matchup comes close to OSU-MSU, let alone OSU-Michigan or the CCG. The next best is OSU-PSU, with a 4-year floor of 4.06M and ceiling of 6.47M. Average is 5.2M. Michigan-MSU comes in at 5.2M average, with a 4-year ceiling of 7.39M and floor of 4.6M.

Nebraska-Iowa, PSU-Michigan, and PSU-MSU come in the 4M to 4.5M average, with about a 6M ceiling and 3.5M floor.

Wisconsin-Iowa and Wisconsin-Nebraska are a step below that. Michigan and Ohio St. have posted stellar 5-7M viewership against Indiana and Rutgers at times, but there is no year-to-year consistency.

There is generally at least one B1G EAST v. B1G WEST game that performs well, with a 4-year floor on the top game of 4.7M ('15 Minnesota-OSU) and ceiling of 8.964 ('16 Wisconsin-OSU). Last year saw 3 EAST v. WEST games over 6M viewers, but 2015 and 2014 saw only two such games over 5M viewers combined and none over 6M.

[We already knew this, but this analysis clearly shows that OSU brings TREMENDOUS value to the B1G contract.]

(05-16-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  it's a shame we have such folks on here who want to act like ESPN's package is totally behind Fox's. It's not by any stretch of the imagination.

And think about this.... if Fox's top games this year are.....
Ohio St/Michigan
Penn St/Ohio St
Notre Dame/Michigan St
Texas/USC

that leaves a ton for ESPN.
Clemson/Florida St of course
Alabama/Florida St
Texas/Oklahoma
Ohio St/Oklahoma
Penn St/Michigan

And a lot more meat on the ESPN bone than the Fox bone.

I totally agree that ESPN has better college football inventory. SEC and ACC contracts and half of the B1G, B12, and PAC ensures this.

But the analysis of the B1G deal by itself show that FOX has the better part of the B1G inventory, which is what the discussion was - not that FOX had better overall college football inventory than ESPN.

You would assume that we know Fox's 1st 3 choices. Michigan/Ohio St, Michigan St/Notre Dame, and Ohio St/Penn St. We figure we know 2 of ESPN's top choices in Ohio St/Oklahoma and Penn St/Michigan. ESPN gets the next choice. Already with those, we know ESPN gets a game with a pretty wide gulf- Ohio St/Oklahoma vs Penn St/Pittsburgh.

And ESPN could easily set up a 2nd huge gulf week with that next choice where they get Nebraska/Ohio St while Fox gets Michigan St/Minnesota.

looking at Sporting News top 25- 4 Big Ten teams in there....
Ohio St 3
Penn St 6
Michigan 9
Wisconsin 13

So far we know- Ohio St with 2 on Fox 1 on ESPN. Penn St with 1 on Fox 1 on ESPN(and a 2nd one on Fox likely with 2nd selection). Michigan with 1 and 1. Wisconsin with nothing yet. If ESPN takes the one week where Ohio St plays Nebraska and 2nd best game is Michigan St/Minnesota- Fox would have a choice to make.
either Michigan St/Michigan (with Nebraska/Wisconsin 2nd choice) or Michigan/Wisconsin(with Penn St/Nebraska 2nd choice).

lets look at the 13 weeks....
week 1 A game- Washington/Rutgers. B game- Ohio St/Indiana. Not much of a difference.
week 2 A game- Ohio St/Oklahoma. B game- Penn St/Pittsburgh. ESPN week. Huge advantage ESPN
week 3 A game- Army/Ohio St. B game- Air Force/Michigan. not much of a difference(likely #13 week)
week 4 A game- Notre Dame/Mich St B game- Penn St/Iowa. Fox week. Advantage Fox- but not huge.
week 5 A game- Mich St/Iowa B game- Wisconsin/Northwestern. not much of a difference
week 6 A game- Mich St/Michigan B game- Wisconsin/Nebraska. slight difference.
week 7 A game- Ohio St/Nebraska. B Game- Mich St/Minnesota. Huge difference.
week 8 A game- Michigan/Penn St B Game- Iowa/Northwestern. ESPN week. Huge advantage ESPN
week 9 A game- Penn St/Ohio St B game- Mich St/Northwestern. Fox week. Huge advantage Fox
week 10 A game- Penn St/Mich St B Game- Ohio St/Iowa. not much of a difference.
week 11 A game- Mich St/Ohio St B game- Iowa/Wisconsin. big difference
week 12 A game- Michigan/Wisconsin B game- Nebraska/Penn St. Not much of a difference.
week 13 A game- Ohio St/Michigan B game- Iowa/Nebraska. Fox week. Huge advantage Fox.

so far Fox has 2 weeks with huge advantages. ESPN has 2, with the next choice. Fox's 3rd choice is an advantage, but not that big.

(05-16-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  You would assume that we know Fox's 1st 3 choices. Michigan/Ohio St, Michigan St/Notre Dame, and Ohio St/Penn St. We figure we know 2 of ESPN's top choices in Ohio St/Oklahoma and Penn St/Michigan. ESPN gets the next choice. Already with those, we know ESPN gets a game with a pretty wide gulf- Ohio St/Oklahoma vs Penn St/Pittsburgh.

And ESPN could easily set up a 2nd huge gulf week with that next choice where they get Nebraska/Ohio St while Fox gets Michigan St/Minnesota.

looking at Sporting News top 25- 4 Big Ten teams in there....
Ohio St 3
Penn St 6
Michigan 9
Wisconsin 13

So far we know- Ohio St with 2 on Fox 1 on ESPN. Penn St with 1 on Fox 1 on ESPN(and a 2nd one on Fox likely with 2nd selection). Michigan with 1 and 1. Wisconsin with nothing yet. If ESPN takes the one week where Ohio St plays Nebraska and 2nd best game is Michigan St/Minnesota- Fox would have a choice to make.
either Michigan St/Michigan (with Nebraska/Wisconsin 2nd choice) or Michigan/Wisconsin(with Penn St/Nebraska 2nd choice).

Stever, I hope you are getting paid by ESPN. Please don't tell me you do this for free? You are a tremendous asset to ESPN. I may not like that group, but as a salesman (Oil industry) I respect that you are doing a heck of a job for them and hope you are being compensated well!

possible packages:
Fox:
a Washington/Rutgers
b Penn St/Pittsburgh
a Army/Ohio St
a Notre Dame/Michigan
a Michigan St/Iowa
a Michigan St/Michigan
b Michigan St/Minnesota
b Iowa/Northwestern
a Penn St/Ohio St
b Ohio St/Iowa
b Iowa/Wisconsin
b Nebraska/Penn St
a Ohio St/Michigan

ESPN:
b Ohio St/Indiana
a Ohio St/Oklahoma
b Air Force Michigan
b Penn St/Iowa
b Wisconsin/Northwestern
b Wisconsin/Nebraska
a Ohio St/Nebraska
a Michigan/Penn St
b Michigan St/Northwestern
a Penn St/Michigan St
a Michigan St/Ohio St
a Michigan/Wisconsin
b Iowa/Nebraska

pretty close IMO.

Yes, pretty close. If you put those packages in order of likely TV viewership/ratings - based on a comparison of average ratings for these games over the last 4 seasons (educated guess for some games]:

Fox:
a Ohio St/Michigan = 11.3M
a Notre Dame/Michigan = 8.5M
a Washington/Rutgers = 5.5M
a Penn St/Ohio St = 5.2M
a Michigan St/Michigan = 5.2M
b Ohio St/Iowa = 5.2M
a Army/Ohio St = 5M
b Nebraska/Penn St = 4.5M
b Penn St/Pittsburgh = 4.5M
a Michigan St/Iowa = 4M
b Iowa/Wisconsin = 3.8M
b Michigan St/Minnesota = 3.5M
b Iowa/Northwestern = 3M

69.2M viewers, 5.3M average

ESPN:
a Ohio St/Oklahoma = 8.5M
a Michigan St/Ohio St = 8M
a Michigan/Wisconsin = 7M
a Ohio St/Nebraska = 5.5M
b Air Force Michigan = 4.5M
b Iowa/Nebraska = 4.5M
a Michigan/Penn St = 4M
a Penn St/Michigan St = 4M
b Penn St/Iowa = 4M
b Ohio St/Indiana = 4M
b Wisconsin/Nebraska = 3.7M
b Wisconsin/Northwestern = 3.5M
b Michigan St/Northwestern = 3M

64.2M viewers, 4.9M average

Advantage FOX, but other than OSU-Michigan game, not much difference game-to-game.

you see- I don't think any way in hell that Penn St/Pittsburgh would get 4.5 million viewers. Not going up against Ohio St/Oklahoma AND Georgia/Notre Dame.

AND- a lot of the Ohio St/Michigan average was last year. You take out last year when it was a playoff game- the other 3 years and that's more like 9.5 million. That's much more realistic.

Also- no way in hell Army/Ohio St would draw 5 million viewers(neither would Air Force/Michigan get 4.5 million).

Just the Penn St/Pittsburgh and Ohio St/Michigan changes would cut a lot into the 5 million difference.

also, I would even say if I was Fox, for 50 million more, I would be expecting a lot more than a 400k difference per game in the regular season.

Also, 1 big difference. When Fox has a game on, ABC/ESPN will be able to put up most of the time a great matchup to compete with the game on Fox. When ABC/ESPN does the same, Fox won't be able to say the same thing. That could eat into the Fox ratings for Big Ten games.

(05-16-2017 03:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  you see- I don't think any way in hell that Penn St/Pittsburgh would get 4.5 million viewers. Not going up against Ohio St/Oklahoma AND Georgia/Notre Dame.

AND- a lot of the Ohio St/Michigan average was last year. You take out last year when it was a playoff game- the other 3 years and that's more like 9.5 million. That's much more realistic.

Also- no way in hell Army/Ohio St would draw 5 million viewers(neither would Air Force/Michigan get 4.5 million).

Just the Penn St/Pittsburgh and Ohio St/Michigan changes would cut a lot into the 5 million difference.

I'm just looking at the numbers over the last 4 seasons.

Ohio St.-Oklahoma had 5.8M last year. So, the 8.5M is generous - again, especially going against Georgia-Notre Dame and Nebraska-Oregon or USC-Stanford.

Throw out the 2015 OSU-MSU matchup of 11M viewers, and the average is closer to 6M. So, the 8M viewers (based on the average) is generous.

Those two adjustments make the analysis swing back the other direction and then some.

Regarding Army-OSU: OSU-Indiana has seen 7.2M and 4M viewers. OSU-Rutgers has seen 5.3M. OSU-Northwestern and OSU-Illinois have been in the 4-7M range. OSU-Minnesota averages 5.2M. I think 5M for Army-OSU is absolutely realistic.

Penn St.-Akron got over 3M viewers in '14. Although I do think 4.5M for Pitt-PSU is possible, especially for a top-5 team in an early-season rivalry game, you are probably right. In looking at the schedule, it likely competes with either Oklahoma-OSU and Georgia-ND or Auburn-Clemson and TCU-Arkansas. Pitt-PSU would have a shot if it's the 12pm ET game going up against Louisville-UNC or....ECU-WVU? Cincy-Michigan?

Few thoughts on both OSU/Michigan and ESPN/FOX

1. Last season Ohio State/Michigan was not representative of normal, but it still very relevant. You pay extra for the chance of having a gold mine game and it is possible there is no other regular season games in the country that could give you results like that. Keep in mind, doubling an audience does more than double your revenue from it (since FOX won't be measuring an audience vs. no viewers at all, but vs. alternatives, which means doubling your audience may quadruple your revenue).
Another example: For years, FOX probably overpaid for the World Series in the hopes something like last year would happen. When it finally did, FOX probably massively underpaid for what they got, but the chance of that happening was why they overpaid every other year.

2. OSU/Michigan floor is definitely relevant too. It is not guaranteed to be the highest game of the year in the Big Ten, but it is guaranteed to get good ratings even in a complete mismatch year. You have a harder time predicting other games so even if another games ends up being a monster rating game, you might not know it ahead of time (and thus will be less likely to choose it).
Example: Ohio State-Michigan State beat OSU/Michigan two years ago, but it took being a de-facto Big Ten Championship Game semi-final for that to happen and it was close the whole time. Almost everything had to go right for that game to be what it was and if things had gone differently, its rating would have been considerably worse than OSU/Michigan instead of slightly better. The guarantee floor of OSU/Michigan is definitely worth something.

3. All the above said, I mostly agree ESPN is not getting something substantial less than FOX besides the last two weeks of the year. While those two weeks matter for sure, for most the season the big games are divided.

The thing is stever, you act like Fox overpaid and ESPN is getting a better deal for 50 million less. You are full on like a ESPN PR guy spinning the $#!t out of this like it's your job. Posting you opinion as fact without even knowing who has what game.

The thing is RG that it's definitely not a situation where Fox will have anywhere close to all of the good games. And a lot of folks on here are spinning it where that would be the case, and it's just not by any stretch of the imagination. We all know you hate ESPN, but the packages are far closer than folks on here want to make it seem....

Also, for the weeks that are close, you won't see the specific games announced at this point of the year at all. So if say ESPN drafts a late week, and there's 2 good looking games now, ESPN would get to make the selection much later in the season. So lets say ESPN gets week 12 as a pick. Got 2 really good looking matchups possible- Michigan/Wisconsin or Nebraska/Penn St. ESPN could wait until a week before the games to declare which one they want. Odds pretty good one of those games will wimp out.

The odds are pretty darn good that Fox and ESPN ratings wise for the season will be pretty darn close. My only question is this- is it worth 50 million extra for a CCG and a negligible difference in regular season ratings?

(05-16-2017 06:45 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  3. All the above said, I mostly agree ESPN is not getting something substantial less than FOX besides the last two weeks of the year. While those two weeks matter for sure, for most the season the big games are divided.

IMO, ESPN got a slight discount relative to what Fox paid because of the Big Ten coaches and ADs who publicly worried about the impact of not having any games on ESPN. ESPN got the less valuable package, but the difference in value is less than $50 milllion/year.

(05-16-2017 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem is that The #1 overall game pick may not be the #1 game of the year.

And the highest value game in the season for one network with its needs may not be the highest value game in the season for the other network with its needs ...
... if the CCG is worth about $40m, then the "first pick of week to pick first" is being priced as worth about $10m, which would be somewhere south of 3% of the total value of the regular season rights. So it's a modest premium.

(05-16-2017 11:09 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 12:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem is that The #1 overall game pick may not be the #1 game of the year.

And the highest value game in the season for one network with its needs may not be the highest value game in the season for the other network with its needs ...
... if the CCG is worth about $40m, then the "first pick of week to pick first" is being priced as worth about $10m, which would be somewhere south of 3% of the total value of the regular season rights. So it's a modest premium.

the CCG was worth 23 million before. So maybe up to 30 million for that now. So 20 million for 1st pick of week to pick 1st? That seems pretty high IMO. The overall packages are going to look remarkably similar.

(05-16-2017 07:12 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  The thing is stever, you act like Fox overpaid and ESPN is getting a better deal for 50 million less. You are full on like a ESPN PR guy spinning the $#!t out of this like it's your job. Posting you opinion as fact without even knowing who has what game.

Or what game may be on FS1?