Obama wins by slightly less than 2 percent nationally, and gets somewhere between 290 and 310 electoral votes.

Final early voting numbers in Ohio not good for Maxi Goebbels.

Cuyahoga county numbers - 37.7% this year vs 39.5%. A difference of around 12,200 votes.

Franklin County Numbers - 39.3% this year vs 44.3% in '08. A difference of around 28,200.

Hamilton County - 24.8% vs 25.4% in '08. A difference of around 2,600 votes. Hamilton is a bellwether county so keep an eye on those returns as they come in.

Also keep in mind that as a few days ago republicans were over performing their turnout in '08 in both Franklin and Cuyahoga. Does this mean Romney will win Ohio? No. He will win election day voting but the question is by how much and will it be enough to overcome any lead the president has. Which, on the surface, appears to be a lot less than he had in '08.

So when Maxi Goebbels said Dems were performing as well or better as '08, no shock, he was lying.

Quote:It's kind of interesting that Romney just added election day rallies today in both Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Obama will be in Chicago today - I don't believe they've added any last day campaign stops for him.

The goal is to up the republican turnout in those areas so that Obama doesn't win them by as much. He's leaving nothing to chance. But given the money and time Obama camp has put into PA the propaganda from Maxi Goebbels that Romney going there is "desperation" is clearly yet another lie.

There is no early voting in PA (only by absentee ballot). I don't know what the lines will be like in Pittsburgh, but do people have enough time to attend a rally and also stay in a long line to vote? It may be an all-day affair for some today to wait in line, especially in those battleground states without early voting.

One interesting thing to see will be how the popular vote looks. Many people in NY and NJ are going to have to make a lot of effort to go vote, and they're even being allowed to vote in polling places that aren't theirs. I think we'll see a fairly depressed turnout in those states as a result.

Obama - 47%
Romney - 45%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 1%

obama...takes ohio and wins narrowly...

Dems in PA have already started their illegal activities. They are blocking GOP poll watchers from entering polling places. GOP in court now.

(11-02-2012 10:48 AM)Max Power Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:33 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:00 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:55 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:51 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  I'll bet any amount of money with you this will not happen. Though you being a scum sucking ambulance chaser you'd just welch as well.

This is so close, I wouldn't be shocked to see anything happen

To get 332 Obama has to sweep FL, NC and VA. He is not winning NC. It won't happen. I don't think he wins FL or VA either even if he wins the whole election. The best Obama can do IMO is 281.

And to firm, this is a prediction thread. A prediction is what you think will happen, not what you know will happen. If I knew what would happen you'd be seeing Intrade skyrocket for one guy cause I'd be buying with everything I had.

I don't disagree. I think Obama will end up at 281 myself. I was just stating that I wouldn't be surprised at Obama at 332 or Romney between 271-304. It's that close.

332 does not give North Carolina to Obama. It does give Florida to Obama, and I'm on the fence about that. I see FL as a coin flip at the moment. Obama is down by about a point in the aggregate there, but the Obama ground game is so superior to Roms it should be worth a point. FL will be extremely close, but thankfully it won't matter.

No Ninerfan I'm not going to bet on Obama getting 332. I think that is the most likely outcome, but still the odds of it happening IMO is just about 20-25%. 303 and 332 are the most likely outcomes, but I'd weigh the chances of them all like this right now:

332: 25% chance
303 (subtracting FL): 24% chance
290 (subtracting FL and VA): 20% chance
281 (subtracting FL and VA and CO): 15%
347 (adding NC): 15%
Anything else: 1%



So no, obviously I'm not going to bet on something I think has a 25% likelihood of occurring. I will offer a bet to Ninerfan though-- If Romney wins, I'll self impose a 6 month ban. If Obama wins, you self impose a 6 month ban. Do we have a deal?

Who is that exceedingly handsome and accurate prognosticator!? I don't know! So, so accurate.