Barring something major happening in the next 72 hours to shift it I think Romney will win. My reasons are basic, the data.

From the beginning I've been saying that the polls that show Obama with a lead are reflecting if a certain thing occurs. '08 or greater turnout for dems. Many of these polls likely voter models, in my opinion, are simply unrealistic. Passing 96% of RV's through your screen makes zero sense to me.

We see by the early voting numbers that '08 turnout is highly unlikely at this point unless Dems massively overperform their typical election day turnout. Could it happen? Sure. Will it? My opinion is no. In Ohio for example in early voting they're down over '08 and Romney is up vs '08 to the point where Obama's 262k winning margin from '08 is almost wiped out. The propaganda Maxi Goebbels keeps posting are lies. Obama is down from his '08 early voting numbers, and down significantly. McCain won election day in Ohio, I think Romney does the same and carries the state.

So going strictly on the data I'm seeing I think Romney wins 295-243. Carrying WI, IA, NH and CO.

(11-02-2012 08:19 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 08:12 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 08:06 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 07:59 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 07:51 AM)gdunn Wrote:  The sig is misleading.

Bush indeed did a fly over, but he also toured all areas and while it was a clusterf*ck aid eventually came.

It hit Monday.. These people have no food or power.. They're eating out of dumpsters and NYC is more concerned about using all it's resources for a marathon instead of taking care of it's own.

Have you been to NYC? There are always people eating out of dumpsters.

Yes I've been to NYC.. I lived in Staten Island for a time working.

I find it funny how Bush was criticized for how FEMA handled Katrina, but the same is happening here and Obama isn't being criticized.

Yes. I blame Obama because ConEd has taken 5 days to get the power back on.

Wow.. Really you think that's the only issue is ConEd?

They are utilizing generators for a marathon on Sunday that could be used in neighborhoods that will be out of power for weeks.

FEMA hasn't responded with food for these people.

The generators for the marathon is the fault Bloomberg's dumb***. Stupid move. I have friends in all boroughs of NYC except for Queens...some wealthy and some in some pretty tough situations. None of them are starving or dying of thirst(minus a shortage of beer in Brooklyn apparently) and none of them are worried about the dissolution of civil society like in New Orleans after Katrina. The extent of any bitching/hardship they might have is directed at the subway system, ConEd, and Bloomberg for making traffic even worse by not cancelling the marathon. Are they completely representative of what is happening in NYC? I don't know. But i do know that I will take their word for it over Drudge or FoxNews or MSNBC.

Oh yea, predictions:

PV
=====
Obama 50.2%
Romney 49.4%

EV
=====
Obama---281
Romney--257

Swing States
==========
Obama---NV, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH
Romney---CO, FL, NC, VA

Senate
==========
D-54
R-46

House
==========
R-238
D-197

Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

(11-02-2012 09:17 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

I believe he's banned.

(11-02-2012 09:22 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:17 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

I believe he's banned.

Yep, but he's still on the hook for our bet. He'll welch regardless.

(11-02-2012 09:22 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:17 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

I believe he's banned.

Yes.

Obama wins in a close one, but it will really never be in doubt. Romney is such a worthless candidate.

(11-02-2012 09:32 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:22 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:17 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

I believe he's banned.

Yes.

Permanently?

(11-02-2012 09:36 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:32 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:22 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:17 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

I believe he's banned.

Yes.

Permanently?

It's global, however, he's had global bans before and made it back.

(11-02-2012 09:38 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:36 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:32 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:22 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:17 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Oh, and I also predict that Obama won't get to 320 even if he does win and, subsequently, TOGC will welch on our bet like the scum he is.

I believe he's banned.

Yes.

Permanently?

It's global, however, he's had global bans before and made it back.

One of his bets was he would self ban if Obama lost. Guess that one is done.

His bet with me was Obama and 320 EV. If that didn't happen he had to donate $50 to the 49er Club. He won't, banned or not.

Lots of Reptile denial in this thread. The Midwest firewall makes a Roms victory impossible. Zero chance. Obama leads in the polls and his ground game is unprecedented. That 2-3% lead in the Ohio polling aggregate will translate to 4%+ on election day.

I've heard cons basically advance 3 arguments:

1. "The polls are assuming 2008 turnout!"

WRONG. These right wing blogs are mistaken. The only thing that measures "turn out" is the likely voter screen. They basically ask how sure you going to vote. THAT is how they factor in turn out.

This D v. R weighting argument is pure ignorance. Rasmussen does it this way, and they assume every poll does it. But it's not a good methodology. It is basically assuming what you are trying to determine. D/R/I is very fluid. Most independents are actually pretty extreme partisans (Think Teabaggers, who call themselves "independents" but in reality are as reliable for the GOP as they were in 2008). So the partisan ID is an output of a poll-- not an input.

These pollsters aren't assuming X many Democrats are going to turn out. People are telling the pollsters they are Democrats.


2. "Ohio is showing more Republicans voting than Democrats!"

TRUE, but misleading. As I've mentioned many times on here, Ohio identifies its voters by what primary they participated in. The Democrats had no contested primary at the president and senate levels, which means far fewer Democrats took a primary ballot. Plus, some Democrats voted in the GOP primary just to create mischief.

Ohio only identifies party ID if you've voted in a primary the past 2 years, which means everyone who took a Democratic ballot in 2008 but didn't vote in this primary or the 2010 midterms (in which Dem turnout was very depressed) was counted as an independent by the state of Ohio, greatly underrepresenting Democratic turnout in figures released thus far.


3. "Republicans are leading early voting nationally!"

TRUE. But, this is because of the heavily GOP South, which has more early voting opportunity than other regions. And national numbers don't matter, because here in America boys and girls, we elect our president state by state with an electoral college.

Also, Obama actually leads in the national polls as of yesterday. Though to be fair, Gallup has suspended polling the last few days.



But again, we live in America boys and girls, and America elects its presidents by an electoral college system, and in the battleground states, Obama has comfortable leads (or, at least comfortable for this close to the election).




National Prediction: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Ohio: Obama 52%, Romney 47%

Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

Senate: Democrats (+ Sanders and King) 52

House: Republicans +15

Roms fuct.

None you know what's gonna happen, stop these threads.

(11-02-2012 09:48 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  None you know what's gonna happen, stop these threads.

For once we agree on something.

I do predict that no matter the outcome on Tuesday, there will be a meltdown on Wednesday from a few posters on the losing side.

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

I'll bet any amount of money with you this will not happen. Though you being a scum sucking ambulance chaser you'd just welch as well.

(11-02-2012 09:44 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:38 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:36 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:32 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:22 AM)gdunn Wrote:  I believe he's banned.

Yes.

Permanently?

It's global, however, he's had global bans before and made it back.

One of his bets was he would self ban if Obama lost. Guess that one is done.

His bet with me was Obama and 320 EV. If that didn't happen he had to donate $50 to the 49er Club. He won't, banned or not.

He told two people to kill themselves, he is clearly a loon and is thankfully gone.

(11-02-2012 09:52 AM)Bearcat_Bounce Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:44 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:38 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:36 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:32 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Yes.

Permanently?

It's global, however, he's had global bans before and made it back.

One of his bets was he would self ban if Obama lost. Guess that one is done.

His bet with me was Obama and 320 EV. If that didn't happen he had to donate $50 to the 49er Club. He won't, banned or not.

He told two people to kill themselves, he is clearly a loon and is thankfully gone.

No argument here.

(11-02-2012 09:51 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

I'll bet any amount of money with you this will not happen. Though you being a scum sucking ambulance chaser you'd just welch as well.

This is so close, I wouldn't be shocked to see anything happen

(11-02-2012 09:48 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  None you know what's gonna happen, stop these threads.

Let me see if you said the same thing on the threads by your fellow Progs.

Nope. Nothing.