(11-02-2012 09:52 AM)Bearcat_Bounce Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:44 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:38 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:36 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:32 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Yes.

Permanently?

It's global, however, he's had global bans before and made it back.

One of his bets was he would self ban if Obama lost. Guess that one is done.

His bet with me was Obama and 320 EV. If that didn't happen he had to donate $50 to the 49er Club. He won't, banned or not.

He told two people to kill themselves, he is clearly a loon and is thankfully gone.

Actually someone said if Obama is re-elected the suicide rates would go up and TOGC said he hoped that person was first in line. Then when someone asked him why he would say that, he told them he hoped they were second in line.

(11-02-2012 09:55 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:51 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

I'll bet any amount of money with you this will not happen. Though you being a scum sucking ambulance chaser you'd just welch as well.

This is so close, I wouldn't be shocked to see anything happen

To get 332 Obama has to sweep FL, NC and VA. He is not winning NC. It won't happen. I don't think he wins FL or VA either even if he wins the whole election. The best Obama can do IMO is 281.

And to firm, this is a prediction thread. A prediction is what you think will happen, not what you know will happen. If I knew what would happen you'd be seeing Intrade skyrocket for one guy cause I'd be buying with everything I had.

(11-02-2012 10:00 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:52 AM)Bearcat_Bounce Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:44 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:38 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:36 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  Permanently?

It's global, however, he's had global bans before and made it back.

One of his bets was he would self ban if Obama lost. Guess that one is done.

His bet with me was Obama and 320 EV. If that didn't happen he had to donate $50 to the 49er Club. He won't, banned or not.

He told two people to kill themselves, he is clearly a loon and is thankfully gone.

Actually someone said if Obama is re-elected the suicide rates would go up and TOGC said he hoped that person was first in line. Then when someone asked him why he would say that, he told them he hoped they were second in line.

I know, didn't feel like typing all that out.

(11-02-2012 10:00 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:55 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:51 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

I'll bet any amount of money with you this will not happen. Though you being a scum sucking ambulance chaser you'd just welch as well.

This is so close, I wouldn't be shocked to see anything happen

To get 332 Obama has to sweep FL, NC and VA. He is not winning NC. It won't happen. I don't think he wins FL or VA either even if he wins the whole election. The best Obama can do IMO is 281.

And to firm, this is a prediction thread. A prediction is what you think will happen, not what you know will happen. If I knew what would happen you'd be seeing Intrade skyrocket for one guy cause I'd be buying with everything I had.

I don't disagree. I think Obama will end up at 281 myself. I was just stating that I wouldn't be surprised at Obama at 332 or Romney between 271-304. It's that close.

(11-02-2012 10:33 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I don't disagree. I think Obama will end up at 281 myself. I was just stating that I wouldn't be surprised at Obama at 332 or Romney between 271-304. It's that close.

The only thing I can say for sure is that at the end of this election "conventional wisdom" will be turned on its head one way or another.

(11-02-2012 10:38 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:33 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I don't disagree. I think Obama will end up at 281 myself. I was just stating that I wouldn't be surprised at Obama at 332 or Romney between 271-304. It's that close.

The only thing I can say for sure is that at the end of this election "conventional wisdom" will be turned on its head one way or another.

After being up 9 with 1:54 to play in 2008, I don't pay attention to conventional wisdom.

(11-02-2012 10:41 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:38 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:33 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I don't disagree. I think Obama will end up at 281 myself. I was just stating that I wouldn't be surprised at Obama at 332 or Romney between 271-304. It's that close.

The only thing I can say for sure is that at the end of this election "conventional wisdom" will be turned on its head one way or another.

After being up 9 with 1:54 to play in 2008, I don't pay attention to conventional wisdom.

Ha! Well done.

(11-02-2012 10:33 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 10:00 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:55 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:51 AM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 09:47 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Electoral college: Obama 332, Romney 206

I'll bet any amount of money with you this will not happen. Though you being a scum sucking ambulance chaser you'd just welch as well.

This is so close, I wouldn't be shocked to see anything happen

To get 332 Obama has to sweep FL, NC and VA. He is not winning NC. It won't happen. I don't think he wins FL or VA either even if he wins the whole election. The best Obama can do IMO is 281.

And to firm, this is a prediction thread. A prediction is what you think will happen, not what you know will happen. If I knew what would happen you'd be seeing Intrade skyrocket for one guy cause I'd be buying with everything I had.

I don't disagree. I think Obama will end up at 281 myself. I was just stating that I wouldn't be surprised at Obama at 332 or Romney between 271-304. It's that close.

332 does not give North Carolina to Obama. It does give Florida to Obama, and I'm on the fence about that. I see FL as a coin flip at the moment. Obama is down by about a point in the aggregate there, but the Obama ground game is so superior to Roms it should be worth a point. FL will be extremely close, but thankfully it won't matter.

No Ninerfan I'm not going to bet on Obama getting 332. I think that is the most likely outcome, but still the odds of it happening IMO is just about 20-25%. 303 and 332 are the most likely outcomes, but I'd weigh the chances of them all like this right now:

332: 25% chance
303 (subtracting FL): 24% chance
290 (subtracting FL and VA): 20% chance
281 (subtracting FL and VA and CO): 15%
347 (adding NC): 15%
Anything else: 1%



So no, obviously I'm not going to bet on something I think has a 25% likelihood of occurring. I will offer a bet to Ninerfan though-- If Romney wins, I'll self impose a 6 month ban. If Obama wins, you self impose a 6 month ban. Do we have a deal?

(11-02-2012 10:48 AM)Max Power Wrote:  No Ninerfan I'm not going to bet on Obama getting 332. I think that is the most likely outcome, but still the odds of it happening IMO is just about 20-25%.

"60% of the time, it works every time."

Quote:I will offer a bet to Ninerfan though-- If Romney wins, I'll self impose a 6 month ban. If Obama wins, you self impose a 6 month ban. Do we have a deal?

First, I don't trust you to honor any bet.

Second, I have no desire to see you banned. I enjoy pointing out your lies and propaganda Maxi Goebbels. Why would I want you gone?

And I'm not betting straight up on the election because at the end of the day it's a coin flip at best in my opinion. I have no more confidence one way than I do the other. I know the data contradicts your lies and it's good for Romney. But I'm a firm believer you can't predict human nature. But I firmly believe Obama won't sniff 332. So if you want to bet on that which you deem as the most likely outcome propose something I'm interested in having and we'll discuss. But you gone for 6 months means nothing to me.

No the data does not contradict my "lies." The ******* polls show Obama is winning in enough states to get him to 270. To believe Romney is winning (or it's a coin flip), you either need to ignore the polls altogether or make up some convoluted explanation for why the polls are wrong, like the UnskewedPolls.com guy or the crazy right wing blog theories I've listed above.

(11-02-2012 11:26 AM)Max Power Wrote:  No the data does not contradict my "lies." The ******* polls show Obama is winning in enough states to get him to 270. To believe Romney is winning (or it's a coin flip), you either need to ignore the polls altogether or make up some convoluted explanation for why the polls are wrong, like the UnskewedPolls.com guy or the crazy right wing blog theories I've listed above.

You have claimed Obama is doing as well in Early voting as '08. That is a lie. You have claimed Ohio counties where Obama needs a big turnout are at or over performing '08. That is a lie. Romney is over performing in McCain counties and Obama is under performing in his to date. The GMU site you like to post also is missing about 20 some odd counties, the majority of which are McCain counties.

And this has nothing to do with unskewed polls. When a poll has a sample of Dem +8 it is saying that the numbers it shows assumes an 8 point higher turnout for Dems than republicans. When a poll shows more Republican enthusiasm, Romney winning independents by 5 + points the only way you get Obama in the lead is higher Dem turnout.

If Obama turns out '08 or greater, he wins. My point has always been that's unlikely. But we'll see.

If Obama gets the same turnout as 08, he wins by 5-7% again. He isn't getting that. I think he'll get enough to win, but it wont be anywhere close to 5-7%. I think it'll be in the 0-2% range....aka the Bush/Kerry.

Guy's there is so much propaganda out there the normal guy doesn't know what to think. I have no idea what a D +8 poll means. Have no clue what the effect of early voting is in suburban districts in Cuyahoga County. Don't care. People put money where their mouth is.

Intrade has Obama at 68%

Sportsbooks have him at 3:1

Collection of POLLS have him favored. ALL of them aren't wrong.

Now whatever gets you to put your head on your pillow at night to get a good nights rest. That's what I want you to do. In the end we have 4 more days of this bull****. I've had three phone calls tonight from the campaigns. Ohio is getting flooded here with the negativity. I can't wait for Wednesday.

I'll go with Nate Silver RIGHT NOW.

Obama 302 Rom 236



The highest probability on his site is 332. 20% chance.

Can't wait.

Actually they can all be wrong because Silver, Intrade, "Sports books" are all going off the same data. The polls. If the polls are wrong, they're all wrong.

The polls that have Obama in the lead ALL have sample sizes of '08 turnout or greater. And with that many have Obama only up by 1 or 2.

What that means is that if Obama gets '08 or greater turnout he wins. I agree with that. But I don't think he gets that. I could be wrong. We'll know late Tuesday night most likely.

My prediction is that there will be lots and lots of bitching.

290 for the big "0"
248 for the little "r"

Either way we all lose.

I see six states that could still go either way:

Ohio (18 EV)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)

Among the rest, Obama's got 243 EV (this includes Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) and Romney's got 235 (this includes North Carolina and Florida).
I think Virginia and Colorado tilt ever-so-slightly to Romney; that would put him at 257. Wisconsin tilts to Obama, taking him to 253. Which leaves Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio as the 3 ultimate toss-ups. Iowa and NH become irrelevant in such a scenario, because both sides would be close enough that just-Ohio-alone would put them over the top, yet not-close-enough for Iowa-&-NH combined to do so.

I honestly expect all three of those states to be decided by <0.5% of the total vote, and even <0.25% really would not surprise me at all. *If* that turns out to be the case, and if the other 47 states fall as I have described, *And* *If* Ohio does, in fact (as reported is likely to happen) have between 300,000-400,000 "provisional" votes cast on Election Day, then we will be faced with a Florida-2000-like scenario all over again, in which Ohio authorities spend some time (a week? a month? longer?) scrutinizing every one of those provisional ballots, and the Dems' and GOP's lawyers try to invalidate each one that is "against" their candidate. Such a scenario would probably wind up in the SCOTUS just as it did 12 years ago with Florida. My instinct right now is that Romney is finally declared the winner in Ohio by ~10,000-12,000 votes, and wins the Electoral College with at least 275, but no more than 285 electoral votes (depending how IA and NH wind up). My prediction of a Romney win in Ohio is offered with about 50% confidence. But I predict with about 99% confidence that Ohio will be in the winner's column. I don't think either Obama or Romney has a viable path to victory without it. And I'll say there's an 80% chance that both candidates get at least 253 EVs from other states, making Ohio's 18 EVs absolutely decisive.

About 130m votes cast nationwide.
Romney to win nationwide popular vote with a margin over Obama of about 1.2%-1.3% (for sheer # of votes, that's about 3x the margin that Gore had over Bush in 2000.) Regardless of how the Electoral College shakes out, Democrats will spend the rest of their lives claiming the recent weather caused Obama's popular-vote loss.

The "exit polls" will apparently exclude a lot of "safe" Blue and Red states; I forget exactly which ones. But I predict that as the data becomes available over the next few months, the consensus will be that the people who voted in the 2012 election were about 37% Democrat and 34% Republican and 29% Independents, Other Parties, or stating no partisan preference.

Third-party candidates get a combined 1.4% (same as 2008). Gary Johnson get about half of that, which works out to a 75% increase over the LP total in 2008. Johnson has run a good race. I was proud to vote for him here in Georgia earlier this week, and look forward to the LP gaining strength in years to come.

(11-02-2012 08:50 PM)TheDancinMonarch Wrote:  290 for the big "0"
248 for the little "r"

That is a plausible scenario, yes. I think it's Obama's "best case" but I can see how it could happen.

If it does happen, Obama would become the first candidate since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to win the election without winning at least 3 Southern states. So the South-haters would obviously enjoy that.

Quote:Either way we all lose.

Quite so.

(11-02-2012 08:06 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 07:59 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 07:51 AM)gdunn Wrote:  The sig is misleading.

Bush indeed did a fly over, but he also toured all areas and while it was a clusterf*ck aid eventually came.

It hit Monday.. These people have no food or power.. They're eating out of dumpsters and NYC is more concerned about using all it's resources for a marathon instead of taking care of it's own.

Have you been to NYC? There are always people eating out of dumpsters.

Yes I've been to NYC.. I lived in Staten Island for a time working.

I find it funny how Bush was criticized for how FEMA handled Katrina, but the same is happening here and Obama isn't being criticized.

There issue in Staten Island isn't that people are dying because they're sitting in the heat for a week, like after Katrina. In NJ and on Staten Island the issue is that the power is out and there are lines at the Gas station. Anyone who needs shelter in Staten Island or in New Jersey is getting it. No, it isn't in their own houses. Yes, the sleeping accomodations consist of cots, but its there for anyone who wants it. Patrols have been to every area already. This isn't Katrina. This is about gas lines. Which happens every time there is a storm that knocks out power. You can tell everyone to fill up their tanks prior to the storm, but apparently no one listened.

ConEd will get the power to the gas stations as soon as it can. So will PSEG in NJ. But to compare this to Katrina is really a reach.

I think that many of the people in the northeast are really unrealistic when they think about what the expectations are for getting the Jersey Shore, the Rockaways, and Staten Island back on their feet. Its going to be WEEKS, not days before the power is restored to everyone.

There are always aid disruptions in the first couple of days after a storm, but basic needs are being met.

Only a fool would expect anyone to get the power back on in three days.

(11-02-2012 10:54 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 08:06 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 07:59 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(11-02-2012 07:51 AM)gdunn Wrote:  The sig is misleading.

Bush indeed did a fly over, but he also toured all areas and while it was a clusterf*ck aid eventually came.

It hit Monday.. These people have no food or power.. They're eating out of dumpsters and NYC is more concerned about using all it's resources for a marathon instead of taking care of it's own.

Have you been to NYC? There are always people eating out of dumpsters.

Yes I've been to NYC.. I lived in Staten Island for a time working.

I find it funny how Bush was criticized for how FEMA handled Katrina, but the same is happening here and Obama isn't being criticized.

There issue in Staten Island isn't that people are dying because they're sitting in the heat for a week, like after Katrina. In NJ and on Staten Island the issue is that the power is out and there are lines at the Gas station. Anyone who needs shelter in Staten Island or in New Jersey is getting it. No, it isn't in their own houses. Yes, the sleeping accomodations consist of cots, but its there for anyone who wants it. Patrols have been to every area already. This isn't Katrina. This is about gas lines. Which happens every time there is a storm that knocks out power. You can tell everyone to fill up their tanks prior to the storm, but apparently no one listened.

ConEd will get the power to the gas stations as soon as it can. So will PSEG in NJ. But to compare this to Katrina is really a reach.

I think that many of the people in the northeast are really unrealistic when they think about what the expectations are for getting the Jersey Shore, the Rockaways, and Staten Island back on their feet. Its going to be WEEKS, not days before the power is restored to everyone.

There are always aid disruptions in the first couple of days after a storm, but basic needs are being met.

Only a fool would expect anyone to get the power back on in three days.

I was listening to Mark Levin the other night(I believe it was the day after the storm but could have been 2 days). He had a caller from Jersey who called in bitching about Obama because he was still without power.