billybobby777
The REAL BillyBobby
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RE: The most likely replacement members if Memphis, USF, & SMU end up in the Big 12.
(05-03-2022 08:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: (05-03-2022 05:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote: (05-02-2022 02:10 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: A few thoughts:
* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).
* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.
* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.
Wow - what an optimistic appraisal!
Seriously, if you continue to think that little of the future of the AAC, I'm going to have to give you a new nickname - - "Bleak Bill!" - - especially with regard to paragraph 2 above.
If the AAC were to replace Memphis, SMU, and USF with GA State, ODU, and UMass, whatever's left of the conference would among be the dregs of the G5. None of those schools have done anything lately.
Don't know why you've gotten so negative on the AAC recently. I guess some of the anti-AAC posters may have "brainwashed" you into seeing things their way.
But that's alright, because GA State and ODU are SBC schools, and ESPN hasn't permitted any of their conferences to raid each other, else the AAC would have ended up with Louisiana-Lafayette.
That's why my top two picks would be WKU and MTSU. They're both located near Nashville, WKU is only 97 miles from Louisville, KY, and they've both had successful FB or basketball teams in recent memory.
If they add a third school, we couldn't rule out the possibility that the third team would be Air Force Football.
As a group, WKU, MTSU, and Air Force wouldn't be quite as strong as Memphis, SMU, and USF would be, but the AAC wouldn't take too much of a hit if that were to occur.
I've offered numerous posts regarding the how the future AAC could be very competitive as an all-round league (football, hoops, baseball, soccer, academics, etc.).
But I also try to be realistic, Milwaukee — and, as such, present scenarios I feel are practical. I don't feel I'm being negative if I note, for example, Dayton will not want to join a league that 1. is unstable and 2. has lost the bulk of its hoops cache. It's not that Dayton would feel being associated with, for example, Temple, Tulsa and Wichita (all fine hoops programs) would be "beneath Dayton." Rather, Dayton would not want the instability or the awkward institutional fit. Similarly, it is not negative for me (or anybody) to note Air Force would not want to join the AAC for football only (how is that going to work, seriously?). Tone and word choice are important here. I try to write respectfully and I don't troll. I simply don't see Air Force — again, for example, wanting to leave the Mountain West. Now maybe if the MWC is shredded by realignment ... who knows. But even if Colorado State heads to the Big 12, I don't foresee Air Force heading to the AAC.
The AAC league has lost/will lose UConn, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. It simply can't get better with any group of replacements. Now maybe it can be "almost as good." But I'm doubtful. If (a major "if") it loses two or three more to the Big (USF, SMU and/or Memphis), that is the point at which — to use your term — things become bleak.
The safe bet is that the Big 12 stands pat, and the AAC reinvents itself in a very solid and respectable manner with the 15 schools. It will be a good group overall, with a nice blend of football, basketball, baseball, soccer, academic and interesting cities. As a Memphis fan, I will wish the conference well.
We have to face reality here. For example, some folks on this board like to trash UConn. But the UC women made it to the national title game and the baseball team is ranked in the top 25. The losses of Houston and Cincy are huge blows, as those universities were formerly members of what we now call "power leagues." As a Cincinnati fan, I am thrilled UC is headed to the Big 12 — but disappointed UC and Memphis will be separated once again.
I don't want to be perceived as being negative with my posts regarding the AAC. But I don't sugarcoat things.
Well said and I have to agree.
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