(05-02-2022 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:52 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:34 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:10 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Georgia State and Old Dominion or James Madison--- two of three are in metro MARKETS.

WKU would be nice-- but VERY unlikely (no MARKET).

Not familiar with Harrisonburg, VA?

I doubt we’re interested in that conference, we’ve been down that road before.

Corrected.

If the media deal is high enough ODU would be gone to join NAVY, Charlotte and ECU before hanging up the phone. REALITY.

If, in this scenario, USF, SMU and Memphis depart,the AAC would still have from its "old core" Tulsa, Wichita, Tulane, Navy, East Carolina and Temple. That's a very solid group, with a respectable combo of football, basketball, baseball and academics. At the minimum, Old Dominion would have to consider an AAC invite.

If those three leave the AAC for the Big XII, along with Boise leaving the MWC, I could see East Carolina and UAB responding by joining the Belt, which may well be the predominant G5 league once the impending moves are done. With the MWC down to 11, they could grab UTSA, North Texas, and either Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, NMSU, or Sam Houston, or try to get Texas State to leave the Belt to get to 14. My outside the box take is, however, that the MWC adds Tulsa, Rice, and Navy (FB-only) to get to 14 FB/13 other sports. If they wanted to, the MWC could also bring on Wichita State to have 14 in basketball. The AAC, then down to 6 - UTSA, UNT, Tulane, FAU, Charlotte, and Temple, adds Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, and FIU and then stands pat at 10, unless they feel they have to add UMass, either as FB-only or in all sports, and UConn football, to have 12 teams in FB.

I think Tulane rival: Southern Miss, could have a decent chance.

And like others mentioned, if they wanted to stay at 10 for all sports, they could maybe try to add UCONN AND UMASS for football only. But I have doubts that they would accept.

I suppose it really depends on what markets they are looking for and how much "people in seats" matters, and how much "Wow they are far away", matters.

For various reasons.I don't think any of the remaining TX schools move the needle for AAC.

There are several other southern schools that could be selected - LA or LA tech, for example.

So I suppose it's really just waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Personally, if the Big 12 expands, I see them taking 1 MWC team and 1 AAC team.

Possibly Colorado State & Memphis (pay attention to how their new coach performs)

Possibly Boise State & Memphis (pay attention to how their new coach performs)

After which it's very likely Air Force gets on the phone with the AAC and takes that 14th spot.

That would put the MWC at 10, and they'll likely take 2 of 3 from Texas State/UTEP/NMSU.

If the Pac 12 expands (after USC possibly leading an exodus), I see the MWC getting eaten.

The only question is how many teams the Pac 12 will need to replace.

The Pac 12 could easily find themselves in a CUSA scenario, with multiple conferences poaching them after the initial grab.

In this scenario, Air Force is still likely to call the AAC again.

(05-02-2022 02:10 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts:

* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).

* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.

* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.

Wow - what an optimistic appraisal!

Seriously, if you continue to think that little of the future of the AAC, I'm going to have to give you a new nickname - - "Bleak Bill!" - - especially with regard to paragraph 2 above.

If the AAC were to replace Memphis, SMU, and USF with GA State, ODU, and UMass, whatever's left of the conference would among be the dregs of the G5. None of those schools have done anything lately.

Don't know why you've gotten so negative on the AAC recently. I guess some of the anti-AAC posters may have "brainwashed" you into seeing things their way.

But that's alright, because GA State and ODU are SBC schools, and ESPN hasn't permitted any of their conferences to raid each other, else the AAC would have ended up with Louisiana-Lafayette.

That's why my top two picks would be WKU and MTSU. They're both located near Nashville, WKU is only 97 miles from Louisville, KY, and they've both had successful FB or basketball teams in recent memory.

If they add a third school, we couldn't rule out the possibility that the third team would be Air Force Football.

As a group, WKU, MTSU, and Air Force wouldn't be quite as strong as Memphis, SMU, and USF would be, but the AAC wouldn't take too much of a hit if that were to occur.

Taking WKU/MTSU/AFA would be a very solid fit, but there is still a bit of a profile problem for the AAC (hence AFA alone is more realistic). FAU on a bit of an island, otherwise GSU for AFA, but then the division alignment gets messy (UAB forced to go to the West or something).

There is simply no one that can fill the shoes of BSU in the MWC. BSU/MWC is the embodiment of the saying "whole greater than the sum of parts". Who is going to replace that program? Idaho? NDSU (FO only)? UTEP? The backfills are so bad. So while the AAC can slowly recover with investment over time, the MWC has no viable brands to backfill and would still be vulnerable to the AAC. They have to keep BSU at all costs, because their brand alone prevents CSU/AFA from wanting to leave for the AAC IMO.

(05-02-2022 09:13 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  Texas State.

Cuts down travel to places like Boone, Conway, Harrisonburg, Jonesboro

Baseball you'd have two eastern trips from among: Greenville, Charlotte, Birmingham, and Fort Lauderdale. A shorter league schedule opens up more OOC games. Maybe a series against UT or A&M or Houston.

Remember that the Sun Belt just kicked UT Arlington out.

I would love to play Houston more often. Still our highest attendance game to date in football. I know we travel well to Houston as we have a big alumni base there. Bobcats are happy in Sunbelt, but if the AAC came calling and gave us an opportunity to be with more Texas teams, I don’t see us turning that down.

(05-02-2022 10:08 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 09:38 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  What people here constantly forget:

1. Georgia State isn't interested in the AAC, per Matt Brown's tweet in 2021.

2. ODU was working closely with other G5 schools (including Marshall) for years to be in a regional conference. AAC is not regional. The SBC East was their solution.

3. ESPN is not going to approve transitions from one ESPN-owned conference (SBC, MAC) to another ESPN-owned conference (AAC). They want new properties.


If new members go to the AAC, they'll have to come from the Mountain West or C-USA. I highly doubt the Mountain West teams will want to join after Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and some combo of Memphis/USF/SMU leave the AAC. They didn't join the AAC when those teams were in it, and it's extremely doubtful that they see UAB/FAU/UTSA/Rice/Charlotte/North Texas as an upgrade.

The obvious candidates here are FIU and MTSU. Both belong to a non-ESPN conference, and both are in large markets. FIU has the 5th largest enrollment in the United States (as of Fall 2021 semester). MTSU claims the Nashville market, the 35th largest U.S. metropolitan area (as of July 2021).

It's also possible that the AAC stays at 12 if they lose 2, but from ESPN's standpoint: if the properties are available, why not grab them?

What some SBC people constantly forget:

ANY SBC school (example-- ODU, Ga. St.) would jump to the AAC with regional rivals NAVY, UAB, Charlotte, ECU, Temple etc. along with tripling their media deal. And again-- sounds pretty regional to me.

Those are your personal thoughts, but your personal thoughts don't match what's been reported by actual journalists.

(05-03-2022 05:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 02:10 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts:

* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).

* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.

* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.

Wow - what an optimistic appraisal!

Seriously, if you continue to think that little of the future of the AAC, I'm going to have to give you a new nickname - - "Bleak Bill!" - - especially with regard to paragraph 2 above.

If the AAC were to replace Memphis, SMU, and USF with GA State, ODU, and UMass, whatever's left of the conference would among be the dregs of the G5. None of those schools have done anything lately.

Don't know why you've gotten so negative on the AAC recently. I guess some of the anti-AAC posters may have "brainwashed" you into seeing things their way.

But that's alright, because GA State and ODU are SBC schools, and ESPN hasn't permitted any of their conferences to raid each other, else the AAC would have ended up with Louisiana-Lafayette.

That's why my top two picks would be WKU and MTSU. They're both located near Nashville, WKU is only 97 miles from Louisville, KY, and they've both had successful FB or basketball teams in recent memory.

If they add a third school, we couldn't rule out the possibility that the third team would be Air Force Football.

As a group, WKU, MTSU, and Air Force wouldn't be quite as strong as Memphis, SMU, and USF would be, but the AAC wouldn't take too much of a hit if that were to occur.

I've offered numerous posts regarding the how the future AAC could be very competitive as an all-round league (football, hoops, baseball, soccer, academics, etc.).

But I also try to be realistic, Milwaukee — and, as such, present scenarios I feel are practical. I don't feel I'm being negative if I note, for example, Dayton will not want to join a league that 1. is unstable and 2. has lost the bulk of its hoops cache. It's not that Dayton would feel being associated with, for example, Temple, Tulsa and Wichita (all fine hoops programs) would be "beneath Dayton." Rather, Dayton would not want the instability or the awkward institutional fit. Similarly, it is not negative for me (or anybody) to note Air Force would not want to join the AAC for football only (how is that going to work, seriously?). Tone and word choice are important here. I try to write respectfully and I don't troll. I simply don't see Air Force — again, for example, wanting to leave the Mountain West. Now maybe if the MWC is shredded by realignment ... who knows. But even if Colorado State heads to the Big 12, I don't foresee Air Force heading to the AAC.

The AAC league has lost/will lose UConn, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. It simply can't get better with any group of replacements. Now maybe it can be "almost as good." But I'm doubtful. If (a major "if") it loses two or three more to the Big (USF, SMU and/or Memphis), that is the point at which — to use your term — things become bleak.

The safe bet is that the Big 12 stands pat, and the AAC reinvents itself in a very solid and respectable manner with the 15 schools. It will be a good group overall, with a nice blend of football, basketball, baseball, soccer, academic and interesting cities. As a Memphis fan, I will wish the conference well.

We have to face reality here. For example, some folks on this board like to trash UConn. But the UC women made it to the national title game and the baseball team is ranked in the top 25. The losses of Houston and Cincy are huge blows, as those universities were formerly members of what we now call "power leagues." As a Cincinnati fan, I am thrilled UC is headed to the Big 12 — but disappointed UC and Memphis will be separated once again.

I don't want to be perceived as being negative with my posts regarding the AAC. But I don't sugarcoat things.

If the AAC lost those 3, I'd expect Wichita and Temple looking to get out ASAP (there is now also a spot open in the A-10...just sayin'). At that point, why join the AAC since I'd also expect the media deal would be adjusted way down.

IF those 3 are lost and then Wichita and/or Temple leave, that may finally force a geographic realignment down the road between the AAC, SBC and CUSA which was my personal preference from start of realignment. Currently all 3 conferences are scattered all over with a lot of overlap.

And because of the NIL, the G5 needs to maximize their expense savings to "try" to keep up with the much deeper pocketed P5. It bad enough the G5 struggled to keep up with the athletic facilities arms race, the G5 must now struggle on the NIL front as well.

(05-03-2022 08:56 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  If the AAC lost those 3, I'd expect Wichita and Temple looking to get out ASAP (there is now also a spot open in the A-10...just sayin'). At that point, why join the AAC since I'd also expect the media deal would be adjusted way down.

IF those 3 are lost and then Wichita and/or Temple leave, that may finally force a geographic realignment down the road between the AAC, SBC and CUSA which was my personal preference from start of realignment. Currently all 3 conferences are scattered all over with a lot of overlap.

And because of the NIL, the G5 needs to maximize their expense savings to "try" to keep up with the much deeper pocketed P5. It bad enough the G5 struggled to keep up with the athletic facilities arms race, the G5 must now struggle on the NIL front as well.

I think the AAC will remain the Metro league. They may lose some programs to an eventual regional realignment, but I think there are enough willing markets left to replace those lost.

I know the SBC tires of hearing it, but I think any future G5 geographic realignment will start with the SBC East. Other G5 realignment will certainly happen, but for things to make regional sense it will almost certainly have to start with the core of SBC East programs wanting to split. I don't see that happening for a while.

(05-02-2022 06:52 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:34 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:10 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Georgia State and Old Dominion or James Madison--- two of three are in metro MARKETS.

WKU would be nice-- but VERY unlikely (no MARKET).

Not familiar with Harrisonburg, VA?

I doubt we’re interested in that conference, we’ve been down that road before.

Corrected.

If the media deal is high enough ODU would be gone to join NAVY, Charlotte and ECU before hanging up the phone. REALITY.

Like I said, we’ve been down that road before.

If those teams leave all I care about is getting East Carolina out of the AAC by any means necessary.

(05-02-2022 07:39 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 02:10 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts:

* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).

* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.

* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.

I think ODU burned some western bridges while in C-USA, and Rice, North Texas and UTSA would all vote “No” on adding the Monarchs. UAB might also be a “No”.

I say make a run at Georgia State first.

I doubt our administration really burnt any bridges in CUSA. We were hardly the only one championing a regional split or unhappy about Frisco. I know Selig works hard to keep relationships professional, he even thanked Judy and CUSA during the press conference announcing our move to the SB.

That said I doubt we’d be quick to jump into that proposed conference. Not what we’re looking for and if the OP’s scenario happens (which is pretty unlikely imo to lose all 3) then the money would dry up quickly. The AAC would have to turn to CUSA to backfill.

(05-02-2022 02:38 PM)freshtop Wrote:  I think MTSU, FIU, Georgia State, and Buffalo would be candidates. Maybe ODU as well, but they seem to be excited about the SBC East for now and aren't as big of a market grab as the others mentioned.

I think MTSU and FIU would immediately say yes without a 2nd thought. The rest are in pretty stable setups and might only want in for full payouts vs. reduced cuts.

EDIT: I don't think WKU has a snowballs chance of getting an invite. Market profile is simply not good enough. Best we can hope for is being a backfill option for the SBC or MAC (or that the SBC East grows tired of the SBC West in the next 5-10 years, forms their own leagues and deicides to invite us).

If the AAC takes Buffalo, WKU goes to the MAC. If AAC takes GaState, WKU goes to the SBC.

Big12 only takes two schools from AAC.

AAC might stay at 12, no need to add anyone else.

But if they do add any schools I pick either FIU, MTSU, Buffalo or GaState. If GaState goes, then the SBC adds either WKU or LaTech. If Buffalo goes the MAC adds WKU. What will be interesting is if they take FIU and MTSU. What does CUSA do?

(05-03-2022 08:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 05:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 02:10 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  A few thoughts:

* If Memphis, SMU and USF moved to the Big 12 with, say, Boise, I seriously doubt the AAC would be able to "poach" the Mountain West (so forget Colorado State and Air Force).

* UConn and Army would not want to be associated with any part of this hypothetical AAC. Furthermore, either Dakota school paired with a school that does not offer football (say NDSU and Dayton, for example) ... not going to happen. Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, etc. will never be joining any future AAC. Too much instability.

* Given the AAC has made clear it wants high-enrollment universities located within large and growing cities, I could see Georgia State and Old Dominion. Then as a wildcard: UMass. With these three universities, the American would be back up to 14 schools (after the losses of SMU, USF and UM), Temple would have a geographic rival in UMass, and the overall "theme" of the AAC would remain intact. That AAC would actually be rather solid with that group of schools, just was it will be with the incoming six.

Wow - what an optimistic appraisal!

Seriously, if you continue to think that little of the future of the AAC, I'm going to have to give you a new nickname - - "Bleak Bill!" - - especially with regard to paragraph 2 above.

If the AAC were to replace Memphis, SMU, and USF with GA State, ODU, and UMass, whatever's left of the conference would among be the dregs of the G5. None of those schools have done anything lately.

Don't know why you've gotten so negative on the AAC recently. I guess some of the anti-AAC posters may have "brainwashed" you into seeing things their way.

But that's alright, because GA State and ODU are SBC schools, and ESPN hasn't permitted any of their conferences to raid each other, else the AAC would have ended up with Louisiana-Lafayette.

That's why my top two picks would be WKU and MTSU. They're both located near Nashville, WKU is only 97 miles from Louisville, KY, and they've both had successful FB or basketball teams in recent memory.

If they add a third school, we couldn't rule out the possibility that the third team would be Air Force Football.

As a group, WKU, MTSU, and Air Force wouldn't be quite as strong as Memphis, SMU, and USF would be, but the AAC wouldn't take too much of a hit if that were to occur.

I've offered numerous posts regarding the how the future AAC could be very competitive as an all-round league (football, hoops, baseball, soccer, academics, etc.).

But I also try to be realistic, Milwaukee — and, as such, present scenarios I feel are practical. I don't feel I'm being negative if I note, for example, Dayton will not want to join a league that 1. is unstable and 2. has lost the bulk of its hoops cache. It's not that Dayton would feel being associated with, for example, Temple, Tulsa and Wichita (all fine hoops programs) would be "beneath Dayton." Rather, Dayton would not want the instability or the awkward institutional fit. Similarly, it is not negative for me (or anybody) to note Air Force would not want to join the AAC for football only (how is that going to work, seriously?). Tone and word choice are important here. I try to write respectfully and I don't troll. I simply don't see Air Force — again, for example, wanting to leave the Mountain West. Now maybe if the MWC is shredded by realignment ... who knows. But even if Colorado State heads to the Big 12, I don't foresee Air Force heading to the AAC.

The AAC league has lost/will lose UConn, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. It simply can't get better with any group of replacements. Now maybe it can be "almost as good." But I'm doubtful. If (a major "if") it loses two or three more to the Big (USF, SMU and/or Memphis), that is the point at which — to use your term — things become bleak.

The safe bet is that the Big 12 stands pat, and the AAC reinvents itself in a very solid and respectable manner with the 15 schools. It will be a good group overall, with a nice blend of football, basketball, baseball, soccer, academic and interesting cities. As a Memphis fan, I will wish the conference well.

We have to face reality here. For example, some folks on this board like to trash UConn. But the UC women made it to the national title game and the baseball team is ranked in the top 25. The losses of Houston and Cincy are huge blows, as those universities were formerly members of what we now call "power leagues." As a Cincinnati fan, I am thrilled UC is headed to the Big 12 — but disappointed UC and Memphis will be separated once again.

I don't want to be perceived as being negative with my posts regarding the AAC. But I don't sugarcoat things.

Well said and I have to agree.

(05-03-2022 11:26 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  Big12 only takes two schools from AAC.

AAC might stay at 12, no need to add anyone else.

But if they do add any schools I pick either FIU, MTSU, Buffalo or GaState. If GaState goes, then the SBC adds either WKU or LaTech. If Buffalo goes the MAC adds WKU. What will be interesting is if they take FIU and MTSU. What does CUSA do?

Apparently, Tarleton State and EKU are in play for CUSA should the need arise.

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...0&ref_url=

Quote:C-USA also considered adding Tarleton State and Eastern Kentucky. In March, at the conference basketball tournament, C-USA presidents heard formal presentations from both schools, but the league decided not to add either at this time, sources said.

(05-03-2022 09:14 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:52 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:34 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:10 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Georgia State and Old Dominion or James Madison--- two of three are in metro MARKETS.

WKU would be nice-- but VERY unlikely (no MARKET).

Not familiar with Harrisonburg, VA?

I doubt we’re interested in that conference, we’ve been down that road before.

Corrected.

If the media deal is high enough ODU would be gone to join NAVY, Charlotte and ECU before hanging up the phone. REALITY.

Like I said, we’ve been down that road before.

The short affair between ODU and ECU was strange. ECU fought for C-USA to add ODU, and ODU used ECU as a selling point for the move to FBS. Then, before ODU officially started C-USA play, ECU waived goodbye to join the AAC.

The AAC is the new C-USA, just with ESPN backing. The schools in the AAC and C-USA are in a constant cycle to try and get away from everyone around them, and it seems to me like ODU doesn't want to be part of that endless cycle anymore.

(05-02-2022 06:52 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:34 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 06:10 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Georgia State and Old Dominion or James Madison--- two of three are in metro MARKETS.

WKU would be nice-- but VERY unlikely (no MARKET).

Not familiar with Harrisonburg, VA?

I doubt we’re interested in that conference, we’ve been down that road before.

Corrected.

If the media deal is high enough ODU would be gone to join NAVY, Charlotte and ECU before hanging up the phone. REALITY.

I doubt Navy would be in the conference at this point.

So, are ECU and UNCC > JMU, Marshall, App, and CCU? I think ODU would love to be in a conference with ECU, but we don't care about UNCC at all. So I think it'd be close.

Money would make a difference, but the last time ODU made a move in order to be in the same conference as ECU and get more money, ECU immediately left and the money went into the toilet. Not sure if the ODU administration wants to go down that road again. Fool me once and all of that