(05-03-2022 12:26 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 11:26 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  Big12 only takes two schools from AAC.

AAC might stay at 12, no need to add anyone else.

But if they do add any schools I pick either FIU, MTSU, Buffalo or GaState. If GaState goes, then the SBC adds either WKU or LaTech. If Buffalo goes the MAC adds WKU. What will be interesting is if they take FIU and MTSU. What does CUSA do?

Apparently, Tarleton State and EKU are in play for CUSA should the need arise.

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...0&ref_url=

Quote:C-USA also considered adding Tarleton State and Eastern Kentucky. In March, at the conference basketball tournament, C-USA presidents heard formal presentations from both schools, but the league decided not to add either at this time, sources said.

What would WKU fans and Administration think if that happens?

(05-03-2022 02:44 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 12:26 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 11:26 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  Big12 only takes two schools from AAC.

AAC might stay at 12, no need to add anyone else.

But if they do add any schools I pick either FIU, MTSU, Buffalo or GaState. If GaState goes, then the SBC adds either WKU or LaTech. If Buffalo goes the MAC adds WKU. What will be interesting is if they take FIU and MTSU. What does CUSA do?

Apparently, Tarleton State and EKU are in play for CUSA should the need arise.

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...0&ref_url=

Quote:C-USA also considered adding Tarleton State and Eastern Kentucky. In March, at the conference basketball tournament, C-USA presidents heard formal presentations from both schools, but the league decided not to add either at this time, sources said.

What would WKU fans and Administration think if that happens?

I'd guess EKU is in the day we leave, and not before barring some sort of amazing run in athletics for the Colonels.

Tarleton feels like an inevitability. I think we are stable enough at 9 not to rush it, but if they have any amount of success in FCS then they will be added.

(05-03-2022 09:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  If those teams leave all I care about is getting East Carolina out of the AAC by any means necessary.

We'll leave the light on for you

(05-03-2022 09:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  If those teams leave all I care about is getting East Carolina out of the AAC by any means necessary.

Would you still feel that way if:

* Memphis were replaced by Colorado St?

* SMU were replaced by Air Force (FB only) and a high quality basketball school?

* USF were replaced by WKU?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Air Force and Colorado St. were #1 and #2 on the AAC's expansion short list, and there's not a single school in the AAC that would have had any reservations about inviting them to join the conference.

A strong case can be made that - - with 5 AAC schools in nearby Texas and Oklahoma - - AFA or CSU might join the AAC if ESPN will provide them the revenue that the AAC remainers will be getting.*

* This amount will actually be greater than the $6.94 million/yr (12 year) average, and will be closer to $7.5 million/yr over the last six years of the agreement.

In addition, some of the other universities on the list would be stronger adds than some might realize:

MTSU - Located in the Nashville metro area (pop. 2,012,476).

--MTSU football teams have played bowl games in 2015, '16, '17, '18, & 2021.

--Basketball team won 26 games last season.

--BB teams played in the 2013, 2016, and 2017 NCAA tournaments (& 2018 NIT).


WKU: - Located between Louisville (pop. 1.3M) and Nashville metro areas.

--Football teams have played 8 bowl games in the past 10 years (5-3 record).

--WKU football teams have averaged 7.8 wins/yr over the past decade.

--Football teams won the 2015 & 2016 CUSA and 2021 CUSA-East Championships.

--WKU finished in the Final AP football Top 25 in 2015.

--Basketball teams have averaged 20 wins/yr over the past decade.


Louisiana Tech Located near Shreveport, LA (pop. 390,000):

--Football teams have played 7 bowl games in the past 8 years (6-1 record).

--LTU's football teams have averaged 7.3 wins/yr over the past decade.

--LTU's basketball teams have averaged 23.6 wins/yr over the past decade.

--Their basketball team played in the 2021 National Invitational Tournament.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

NOTE: The Big 12's "round two" of expansion could go into effect as soon as the 2025-26 season, and the departing Big 12 commissioner stated last September that he would like the Big 12 to have 16 members the first season that the SEC will have 16 members.

However, with a new commissioner, the Big 12 might not expand as rapidly as commissioner Bowlsby would have preferred. Some have suggested that they might add two schools for the 2025-26 season to maintain their membership at 14 (they will have 14 members in 2024-25).

Big 12 expansion members could be announced within the next 12 to 18 months.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Arguably, considering how much USF FB & MBB have struggled in recent years, the AAC wouldn't be too adversely affected if it were to add new members such as AFA, CSU, WKU, MTSU, and LTU to replace Memphis, SMU, and USF - - if those three were to depart for the Big 12.

.

What would happen if each of the remaining 11 schools got three ranked votes (voted by secret ballot)?

If 3 (or more) schools received a vote from a majority of the 11 schools then three are added - with a tie-breaker based on weighted vote 3,2,1.

If 1 or two schools received a vote from a majority of the 11 schools then one is added - with a tie-breaker based on weighted vote 3,2,1.

(05-03-2022 02:44 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 12:26 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 11:26 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  Big12 only takes two schools from AAC.

AAC might stay at 12, no need to add anyone else.

But if they do add any schools I pick either FIU, MTSU, Buffalo or GaState. If GaState goes, then the SBC adds either WKU or LaTech. If Buffalo goes the MAC adds WKU. What will be interesting is if they take FIU and MTSU. What does CUSA do?

Apparently, Tarleton State and EKU are in play for CUSA should the need arise.

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...0&ref_url=

Quote:C-USA also considered adding Tarleton State and Eastern Kentucky. In March, at the conference basketball tournament, C-USA presidents heard formal presentations from both schools, but the league decided not to add either at this time, sources said.

What would WKU fans and Administration think if that happens?

My solution:
AAC to Big XII: Memphis, SMU.
Big XII has 14 schools.

Sun Belt to AAC: Georgia State.
MAC to AAC: Buffalo.
C-USA to AAC: Middle Tennessee.
AAC to Sun Belt: East Carolina.
AAC has 14 schools. The Sun Belt has 14 schools.

C-USA to MAC: Western Kentucky.
MAC has 12 schools. C-USA is at 7 schools, pending any additions.

(05-03-2022 08:03 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Louisiana Tech Located in Shreveport, LA (pop. 390,000):

Tech is located in Ruston, about an hour from Shreveport.

But I still think we'd be a good addition to the AAC.

We don't have the #markets but a lot of those schools have shared a conference with us before. Some more than once. It's possible we reconnect.

(05-02-2022 12:13 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Your opinion: The most likely replacement members if Memphis, USF, & SMU end up in the Big 12.

Marshall
Southern Mississippi
Old Dominion

(05-03-2022 11:26 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  Big12 only takes two schools from AAC.

AAC might stay at 12, no need to add anyone else.

ESPN probably wouldn't see it that way, since the network's agreement to maintain their revenue stream to the AAC remainers was made contingent on the expansion of the conference's membership to 14 with the addition of the CUSA6.

Moreover, ESPN has made it clear that they consider 14 to be the ideal number of members that each of their G5 conferences should have, from a viewership standpoint:

AAC - Had no intention of expanding beyond 12, but is expanding to 14.

Sun Belt - ESPN made them an offer they couldn't refuse to expand from 10 to 14.

MAC - ESPN has strongly encouraged them to expand to 14.

If Memphis, USF, and SMU leave, I imagine Navy would leave as well. Any chance that AAC would just hold at 10?

West----------East

UTSA---------Temple
UNT----------East Carolina
Rice----------Charlotte
Tulsa---------Florida Atlantic
Tulane-------UAB

(05-04-2022 06:32 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If Memphis, USF, and SMU leave, I imagine Navy would leave as well. Any chance that AAC would just hold at 10?

West----------East

UTSA---------Temple
UNT----------East Carolina
Rice----------Charlotte
Tulsa---------Florida Atlantic
Tulane-------UAB

yeah no thanks. SBC looking pretty good to me.

(05-03-2022 08:03 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 09:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  If those teams leave all I care about is getting East Carolina out of the AAC by any means necessary.

Would you still feel that way if:

* Memphis were replaced by Colorado St?

* SMU were replaced by Air Force (FB only) and a high quality basketball school?

* USF were replaced by WKU?

I'd say you're smoking crack if you think CSU and AFA are a realistic outcome. Nevermind the fact that CSU and WKU aren't really attractive either.

(05-04-2022 07:26 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:32 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If Memphis, USF, and SMU leave, I imagine Navy would leave as well. Any chance that AAC would just hold at 10?

West----------East

UTSA---------Temple
UNT----------East Carolina
Rice----------Charlotte
Tulsa---------Florida Atlantic
Tulane-------UAB

yeah no thanks. SBC looking pretty good to me.

You would have immediate rivalries there with at least Marshall, Old Dominion, App State, and Southern Miss.

You lost your most recent game against Georgia State (2020), James Madison (2017), and Louisiana (2012), so it's not like the competition is below you.

(05-04-2022 07:31 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 07:26 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:32 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If Memphis, USF, and SMU leave, I imagine Navy would leave as well. Any chance that AAC would just hold at 10?

West----------East

UTSA---------Temple
UNT----------East Carolina
Rice----------Charlotte
Tulsa---------Florida Atlantic
Tulane-------UAB

yeah no thanks. SBC looking pretty good to me.

You would have immediate rivalries there with at least Marshall, Old Dominion, App State, and Southern Miss.

You lost your most recent game against Georgia State (2020), James Madison (2017), and Louisiana (2012), so it's not like the competition is below you.

Yes, we lost to GSU and JMU... when we were at rock bottom as a program and when they were both at their peak. Funny story is we still got JMUs coach.

(05-04-2022 07:27 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 08:03 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 09:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  If those teams leave all I care about is getting East Carolina out of the AAC by any means necessary.

Would you still feel that way if:

* Memphis were replaced by Colorado St?

* SMU were replaced by Air Force (FB only) and a high quality basketball school?

* USF were replaced by WKU?

I'd say you're smoking crack if you think CSU and AFA are a realistic outcome. Nevermind the fact that CSU and WKU aren't really attractive either.

If the AAC were to lose both SMU and Memphis, within minutes I’d expect the MWC to be on the phone with Tulsa, Wichita State, North Texas, UTSA and Rice.

Having said that, I think the likelihood of further Big 12 expansion is very low.

(05-04-2022 08:45 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 07:27 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 08:03 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 09:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  If those teams leave all I care about is getting East Carolina out of the AAC by any means necessary.

Would you still feel that way if:

* Memphis were replaced by Colorado St?

* SMU were replaced by Air Force (FB only) and a high quality basketball school?

* USF were replaced by WKU?

I'd say you're smoking crack if you think CSU and AFA are a realistic outcome. Nevermind the fact that CSU and WKU aren't really attractive either.

If the AAC were to lose both SMU and Memphis, within minutes I’d expect the MWC to be on the phone with Tulsa, Wichita State, North Texas, UTSA and Rice.

Having said that, I think the likelihood of further Big 12 expansion is very low.

I agree with both points.

(05-04-2022 08:45 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 07:27 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 08:03 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  [quote='b2b' pid='18220154' dateline='1651587641']

I'd say you're smoking crack if you think CSU and AFA are a realistic outcome. Nevermind the fact that CSU and WKU aren't really attractive either.

If the AAC were to lose both SMU and Memphis, within minutes I’d expect the MWC to be on the phone with Tulsa, Wichita State, North Texas, UTSA and Rice.

Having said that, I think the likelihood of further Big 12 expansion is very low.

I agree, I doubt the B12 adds anyone soon, and if they do it will only be 2 teams.
Even if the B12 did add 2, I am far from sure both will come from AAC. I think the AAC at this point have just above a 0% chance of getting any MWC school. That bird flew with the last expansion.

(05-04-2022 06:32 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If Memphis, USF, and SMU leave, I imagine Navy would leave as well.

You (or anyone) could imagine that the moon is made of green cheese, too, but that wouldn't make it true.

The U.S. Naval academy has made it abundantly clear that they have no intention, whatsoever, of leaving the AAC. When the departures of UC, UH, and UCF were announced, Navy and Wichita State were the two AAC schools that made the strongest and most powerful statements of support for the AAC and clearly stated that they were 100% committed to the AAC and are in it for the long haul.

(05-04-2022 06:32 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  Any chance that AAC would just hold at 10?

The simple fact that you've asked that question suggests that, apparently, you're not aware of the fact that, due to the nature of its partnership with ESPN, any decisions about the future membership and size of the conference are made collaboratively with ESPN - - not on their own - - because they know full-well that what is in ESPN's interests is also what's in their own best interests.

The AAC agreed to add 6 expansion teams because ESPN made them an offer they couldn't refuse to do so - - the way the AAC "2.0" broadcasting agreement was structured makes that crystal clear. ESPN did the same with the Sun Belt, which expanded to 14 despite having had no intention to expand beyond 10 teams, and they've also encouraged the MAC to expand to 14. Based on their market research and long-term projections, it has become clear that ESPN strongly believes that their G5 conferences should have 14 members.

There are still enough quality programs, listed in the poll at the top of this thread, that the loss of Memphis et al. can be offset fairly effectively. Moreover, there are some improving programs among the AAC remainers, such as Tulsa and ECU's football programs and Temple and Tulane's basketball programs, that could move up the ranks and into Memphis & SMU's shoes a year or two after they depart - - if not earlier - - not to mention the encouraging improvement of UTSA football, UNT basketball, and UAB (FB and BB).

(05-03-2022 10:21 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(05-02-2022 12:13 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Your opinion: The most likely replacement members if Memphis, USF, & SMU end up in the Big 12.

Marshall
Southern Mississippi
Old Dominion

No thank you, we've been in CUSA before.

(05-04-2022 07:27 AM)b2b Wrote:  I'd say you're ___ if you think CSU and AFA are a realistic outcome.

What a clever, genteel remark! You really know how to endear yourself to others!

Nevertheless, it would be remiss of me to fail to mention the fact that, if you take a look at the poll at the top of this thread, AFA and CSU have gotten a fair number of votes by your peers, so there are obviously some people who disagree with you and believe that one or both of them might have interest in joining the AAC, now that it has 4 members in nearby Texas and 1 in nearby Oklahoma.

My own opinion is that they might be possible candidates if ESPN would agree to pay them the full amount that the departing schools would have been paid - - which would be close to $7.5 million per year, on average, between 2025 and 2032 . All of the AAC remainers will be paid that much from 2025 to 2032 under the terms of their broadcasting agreement, which has increasing amounts being paid to them each year, in a "ballooning payments" type of arrangement.

The AAC remainers could further sweeten the deal with millions in additional revenue by offering Air Force and CSU whatever share of the conference's bowl game and NCAA tournament credits the departing schools would have received. Put all that together, and the AAC (with ESPN's encouragement, no doubt) could offer Air Force and CSU approximately $8.5 to $9 million per year to join the conference - - nearly twice what they're being paid to play in the MWC. That, plus the fact that the AAC will have 6 schools in nearby Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas certainly might be enough to persuade them to join the American.

(05-04-2022 07:27 AM)b2b Wrote:  Nevermind the fact that CSU and WKU aren't really attractive either.

You may not consider CSU or WKU attractive, but, as the saying goes, "beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

CSU has a very successful basketball program, which played in the 2022 NCAA tournament and advanced to the NIT semifinals in 2021. Despite the recent struggles of CSU's football program, they have a long, proud tradition in football and have just built a terrific new football stadium, so it's clear that they're clearly committed to their FB program.

Overall, Colorado State has long been regarded as one of the top 5 or 6 consensus expansion schools on the AAC message board, along with schools such as BYU, Boise St., Air Force, Army, and SDSU.

WKU is one of the other schools (in a group that included Louisiana and Appalachian State) that got their share of mentions on the AAC message board as quality AAC expansion schools, because their football teams have been consistently successful, and their basketball teams have averaged 20.0 wins/year over the past decade.

WKU is in some ways the mirror image of CSU, because they have had more success in football than in basketball. WKU has won an average of 7.8 games per season over the past 10 seasons, and has played 7 bowl games in the past 8 years (record: 5-2). They have averaged 7.7 wins per season under their current Head Coach, and they won 9 games in 2022, so their future appears bright, and the AAC wouldn't lose a step as a football conference if WKU were to join the American.

.