I am starting to fear that soft SOS is going to win out: Neither Bama nor Baylor can run the table against tough schedules while FSU and OSU will cake-walk their way to unbeaten seasons, setting up a dreadful BCS title game. Ouch!

Given last year and the Bama-LSU rematch, it doesn't bother me too much (provided the game is not a blowout).

As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

(11-09-2013 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I am starting to fear that soft SOS is going to win out: Neither Bama nor Baylor can run the table against tough schedules while FSU and OSU will cake-walk their way to unbeaten seasons, setting up a dreadful BCS title game. Ouch!

The Big 12 is on par or worse than the ACC this year and Baylor played a bad ooc schedule so I don't see how Baylor has it harder than FSU. Plus, I think most neutral observers would say that FSU is better than Baylor.

Having seen both teams play live, I believe that Florida State would beat the hell out of Ohio State. They are much more athletic up front and I like FSU's skill players better too.

A true play off would solve these complaints (and no, a four team play off is not a true playoff.

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

And if FSU still had to play Clemson and Miami, you would talk about how tough their schedule is remaining.

FSU gets more respect because its already beaten 2 decent teams. Plus it still has Florida and its CCG.

OSU has beat a good Wisconsin team and still has to play a good MSU team in the CCG.

Oklahoma is a good start but Baylor needs to prove it can beat more good teams. This is a golden opportunity for Baylor.

Can't tell if trolling?

Baylor is just like Oregon. Neither are truly championship caliber teams, and would get killed by Alabama. Baylor will likely lose because they're just not that good. Baylor, so far, has beaten Oklahoma at home, that's the only good team they've played, and Oklahoma doesn't have a QB.

Florida State has already played and beaten two top ten teams. The best title game possibility is Alabama vs Florida State.

(11-09-2013 12:50 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  Can't tell if trolling?

Baylor is just like Oregon. Neither are truly championship caliber teams, and would get killed by Alabama. Baylor will likely lose because they're just not that good. Baylor, so far, has beaten Oklahoma at home, that's the only good team they've played, and Oklahoma doesn't have a QB.

Florida State has already played and beaten two top ten teams. The best title game possibility is Alabama vs Florida State.

And they will beat another top 10 team in Miami for the ACC Championship, unless of course Miami gags today with VT - which is probably not going to happen since VT has no offense.

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Doesn't matter. You are not addressing the point at hand, you are just defining percentages and quite frankly your defining is just at hypothesis stage, it surely is no scientific law that it must happen such a way. Past happenings can provide some guidance as to what could happen in the future but they do not define what will happen in the future.

What is fact is that the stronger a conference becomes across the board, the harder it is for a school to escape the conference schedule with an undefeated season. I doubt anyone here argues that with the inclusion of A&M and with the surprise success of Missouri that the SEC does not arguably have the hardest across the board competition in college football.

Fans may think that is great but it can backfire on the conference in terms of what really matters to the administrators in charge.

I would say that right now, the way things are going, the SEC has the least likely chance in the future of having a team go undefeated. That makes your oversimplified "1 out of 5 chance" theory defunct.

Defense is the mark of a great SEC team. Defense, not offense is the root of their success this last 5-7 years - monster defensive tackles combined with fast, competent defensive backs. Over the past 30 years if you looked at the top ACC teams versus the top SEC teams the difference was on defense and usually at defensive tackle with the top SEC team having 2-3 monsters and the ACC team having just one.

Fast forward to now - FSU's defense is for real, not just the offense. As long as Bama has defense, they are in the game. What I don't know about Baylor's defense is this - they lost to Texas, and they barely beat West Va. FSU's defense embarrassed Clemson's offense and Miami's offense.

(11-09-2013 01:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Doesn't matter. You are not addressing the point at hand, you are just defining percentages and quite frankly your defining is just at hypothesis stage, it surely is no scientific law that it must happen such a way. Past happenings can provide some guidance as to what could happen in the future but they do not define what will happen in the future.

What is fact is that the stronger a conference becomes across the board, the harder it is for a school to escape the conference schedule with an undefeated season. I doubt anyone here argues that with the inclusion of A&M and with the surprise success of Missouri that the SEC does not arguably have the hardest across the board competition in college football.

Fans may think that is great but it can backfire on the conference in terms of what really matters to the administrators in charge.

I would say that right now, the way things are going, the SEC has the least likely chance in the future of having a team go undefeated. That makes your oversimplified "1 out of 5 chance" theory defunct.

Yes, and we have so many years where 5 teams are undefeated

The voters will take the actual strength of the conference into account. I'm not worried about the bitching and moaning about team number 5. When the playoffs expand to 8, I will not worry about team 9. Ohio State plays the worst schedule compared to Bama, FSU, and Baylor this year, they will reap the fruit of that crappy schedule.

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Its individual schedules that matter ooc. But the SEC and ACC compensate for playing each other. The ACC plays more FCS schools than any other conference. The SEC plays really, really bad FCS schools and some of the worst FBS schools as well. Pac 12 typically plays the toughest ooc schedule. The other 4 its hard to separate.

(11-09-2013 01:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Its individual schedules that matter ooc. But the SEC and ACC compensate for playing each other. The ACC plays more FCS schools than any other conference. The SEC plays really, really bad FCS schools and some of the worst FBS schools as well. Pac 12 typically plays the toughest ooc schedule. The other 4 its hard to separate.

Is it individual when you get into some of these polls? If you beat Florida and South Carolina and they have beating top 15 FSU and Clemson don't you get some statistical mojo for that? I don't know, I have not read the methodology of some of those polls.

I'll say this, Florida stinks this year so FSU is lucky that Stanford whipped Oregon because what is normally a good game should be a laugher.

(11-09-2013 12:04 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  A true play off would solve these complaints (and no, a four team play off is not a true playoff.

Exactly. Institute an eight-team playoff and the problem goes away.

(11-09-2013 01:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 01:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Doesn't matter. You are not addressing the point at hand, you are just defining percentages and quite frankly your defining is just at hypothesis stage, it surely is no scientific law that it must happen such a way. Past happenings can provide some guidance as to what could happen in the future but they do not define what will happen in the future.

What is fact is that the stronger a conference becomes across the board, the harder it is for a school to escape the conference schedule with an undefeated season. I doubt anyone here argues that with the inclusion of A&M and with the surprise success of Missouri that the SEC does not arguably have the hardest across the board competition in college football.

Fans may think that is great but it can backfire on the conference in terms of what really matters to the administrators in charge.

I would say that right now, the way things are going, the SEC has the least likely chance in the future of having a team go undefeated. That makes your oversimplified "1 out of 5 chance" theory defunct.

Yes, and we have so many years where 5 teams are undefeated

The voters will take the actual strength of the conference into account. I'm not worried about the bitching and moaning about team number 5. When the playoffs expand to 8, I will not worry about team 9. Ohio State plays the worst schedule compared to Bama, FSU, and Baylor this year, they will reap the fruit of that crappy schedule.

Whether it is a 1 loss team being shut out of the process by undefeated teams or if it is a 2 loss team being shut out of the process by a combination of undefeated and one loss teams, the theory is the same. The conference with the best across the board talent and teams is going to have the hardest time having it's "top" team of the year keep up with schools from other conferences when it comes to having the best record.

That is the premise of what I am saying and it seems to be going over your head as you struggle with the details of it rather than seeing the bigger picture of what I am illustrating.

(11-09-2013 01:46 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 12:04 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  A true play off would solve these complaints (and no, a four team play off is not a true playoff.

Exactly. Institute an eight-team playoff and the problem goes away.

Oh it is absolutely going to happen. What I am debating with lumber, that scenario goes away completely when we move to an eight team playoff. That is going to be held up though until the Majors get the control that they want.

(11-09-2013 12:50 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  Can't tell if trolling?

Baylor is just like Oregon. Neither are truly championship caliber teams, and would get killed by Alabama. Baylor will likely lose because they're just not that good. Baylor, so far, has beaten Oklahoma at home, that's the only good team they've played, and Oklahoma doesn't have a QB.

Florida State has already played and beaten two top ten teams. The best title game possibility is Alabama vs Florida State.

No matter what the rankings say, Miami is NOT a top ten team. They'd lose 4 or 5 games in the SEC, Pac 12 and at least 3 in the BIG and B12

(11-09-2013 01:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 01:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 01:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 10:24 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a fan, I can see how many would feel similarly. As administrators of those so called weak conferences. They win.

The balance will see to itself. The SEC has risen so high and the talent is so widespread now that it eventually will lose it's own balance and will be so competitive within itself that it will begin to be less competitive in the National Championship chase.

If we don't get down to four major conferences then there is the definite possibility in the future that the SEC is the conference that ends up missing out.

If the Big Ten, ACC, PAC and Big 12 all end up with undefeated champs and the SEC ends up with a one loss champ then the SEC could very well get left out.

Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Doesn't matter. You are not addressing the point at hand, you are just defining percentages and quite frankly your defining is just at hypothesis stage, it surely is no scientific law that it must happen such a way. Past happenings can provide some guidance as to what could happen in the future but they do not define what will happen in the future.

What is fact is that the stronger a conference becomes across the board, the harder it is for a school to escape the conference schedule with an undefeated season. I doubt anyone here argues that with the inclusion of A&M and with the surprise success of Missouri that the SEC does not arguably have the hardest across the board competition in college football.

Fans may think that is great but it can backfire on the conference in terms of what really matters to the administrators in charge.

I would say that right now, the way things are going, the SEC has the least likely chance in the future of having a team go undefeated. That makes your oversimplified "1 out of 5 chance" theory defunct.

Yes, and we have so many years where 5 teams are undefeated

The voters will take the actual strength of the conference into account. I'm not worried about the bitching and moaning about team number 5. When the playoffs expand to 8, I will not worry about team 9. Ohio State plays the worst schedule compared to Bama, FSU, and Baylor this year, they will reap the fruit of that crappy schedule.

Whether it is a 1 loss team being shut out of the process by undefeated teams or if it is a 2 loss team being shut out of the process by a combination of undefeated and one loss teams, the theory is the same. The conference with the best across the board talent and teams is going to have the hardest time having it's "top" team of the year keep up with schools from other conferences when it comes to having the best record.

That is the premise of what I am saying and it seems to be going over your head as you struggle with the details of it rather than seeing the bigger picture of what I am illustrating.

But a much tougher SEC with all it's parity will make for an excellent Strength of Schedule argument to the voting panel.